Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the market exuberance around this week’s IPOs, DeMarc indicators, and his forward outlook. Thornton elaborates on why the speculative bubble surrounding the IPOs for DoorDash and Airbnb is worrisome and too volatile to either long or short at this point. He also dives into DeMarc indicators, sharing what they are and how he analyzes markets and crafts investing strategies around their use. Thornton then talks about what his outlook in light of a true reopening is for oil, financials, cyclicals, and tech. Harrison and Thornton end on discussing the DXY and currency markets. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores the jobless claims spike after the Thanksgiving week and the higher than expected valuations of Airbnb and Doordash going public. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to put today’s market selloff in context of the broader bullish attitudes that have prevailed amid trouble in the real economy. They also highlight individual stories from the week like DoorDash's and Airbnb’s IPOs and Tesla’s successful $5 billion dilutive offering as examples of this market favoring corporate managers above all else. Beyond equity markets, Ed and Max touch on the steepening yield curve as another bullish signal and address the knock-on effects for real yields and gold as well as the conflicting signal being sent by a weak dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to delve into the day’s trading and explore where markets are currently at. With Joe Biden becoming President-Elect and the race for a vaccine coming closer to the end, markets have changed their tune, and Greer explains how the rotation trade is continuing to be sustained due to the markets’ vision of a vaccinated world. Greer also considers how the virtualization of society due to the pandemic will have enduring effects in the way people live and work and what that implies for new market trends such as the recent abundance of tech IPOs. Greer shares his thoughts on why the Fed will continue to only address the recovery through asset price inflation, and he discusses what this means for various asset classes. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores the K-shaped recovery in the housing market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the froth of the market and explore whether it will boil over. Ed analyzes the significance of the Smart Money Index’s (SMI) hitting a one-year low, and Jack gives a snapshot of the roaring U.S. credit markets. Ed looks at the ongoing efforts to distribute the vaccine in the U.K. and ponders the rotation trade from growth to value stocks, as electric vehicle makers surge and cloud technology stocks remain exorbitantly priced, by historical metrics. Ed discusses Tesla’s eclipsing of Berkshire Hathaway in market capitalization, a phenomenon which Ed sees as the epitome of the market’s current zeal for flashy, growthy names. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin reviews price action and stimulus hopes, as well as a slew of upcoming IPOs, including DoorDash and AirBnb. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dr. Thomas Kaplan, chairman of The Electrum Group and executive chairman of Panthera Corporation, joins Rick Rule, President & CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings, to discuss the opportunities he sees at this juncture for precious metals and precious metals miners. After Kaplan regales Rule with tales of his epic call on silver in 1992, which turned many heads including that of George Soros, Kaplan shares why he believes gold offers a "generational opportunity" in 2020 that can offer 10x-20x returns. As developing nations threaten to nationalize mines, Kaplan has allocated away from emerging markets to concentrate his investments in America, Canada, and Australia, warning simply that the "era of the frontier mentality is over." Key takeaways: Opportunities in precious metals are many and promising, but jurisdictional risks lurk. Kaplan sees nationalization of mines as a major threat in emerging markets, warning that the "era of the frontier mentality is over." Recorded On : Oct 26, 2020 Learn more about your ad choic

Real Vision viewers should be well acquainted with Mike Green's research into how big passive funds are responsible for many of the “distasteful” dynamics that have perplexed and enraged market participants over the last few years, but they may still be wondering how they can actually use this in constructing a portfolio. In this interview, Green sits down with up and coming hedge fund manager Dan McMurtrie of Tyro Partners to discuss how Dan has managed to successfully implement this research into his portfolio construction and security selection process. They also discuss the power of doing favors, McMurtrie’s unconventional path to building his fund, and how he has used twitter and good old-fashioned happy hours to develop an incredible network of mentors and colleagues. Dan McMurtrie can be found on a twitter @supermugatu and Mike Green can be found @profplum99. Key Learnings: Investors need to think about who the next marginal buyer is going to be to drive a stock higher, and although this doesn't mean t

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington (“Cash Pennington”) hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s dismal data on the state of the U.S. labor market. Ed and Ash put in context the non-farm payroll figures, released today, and contrast this dreadful print with the rally in U.S. equities. After reflecting on what these job numbers means for the yield curve and interest rate margins, Ed and Ash conduct an even-handed analysis of the worsening data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. In the intro, editor Jack Farley explores why the investors seem convinced that the adverse jobs data is actually good news for the stock market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision editor Max Wiethe is joined by both Jack Farley and Ed Harrison in this multi-part edition of The Daily Briefing. In part one, Jack and Max discuss the swirling optimism and pessimism surrounding reopening favorites like airlines and movie theaters and debate whether these industries and others like commercial real estate are in store for a new normal post-COVID. In part two, Ed Harrison returns to update his rough winter thesis in light of today’s positive surprise in jobs data and the renewed hopes for fiscal stimulus as news of good-faith bipartisan discussions and support from President Trump for slimmed down stimulus indicate a potential for more positive surprises. As well, they look forward at the pitfalls that still remain and tomorrow's more important jobs report. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin digs deeper into today’s jobless claims number to analyze why the weekly jobless claims fell last week after rising for two consecutive weeks and what this means for the labor market's r

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to discuss the potentially negative jobs data that Ed is watching out for later this week. Harrison also highlights the four fiscal cliffs between now and the inauguration that could potentially cause permanent economic damage and undermine the optimism surrounding the vaccine rotation trade. They also discuss the importance of perceived duration in how certain assets react to these surprises in real economic data. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses the new ADP numbers, the latest data on the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S., the U.K.'s emergency-use authorization of Pfizer and BioNTech SE's vaccine, and president-elect Biden's nominations for key economic positions in his administration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bleakley Advisor Group CIO Peter Boockvar joins senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss a potentially higher inflationary environment for 2021 and why that may put central banks and markets at odds. Boockvar reviews this year’s market trends and dissects the latest ISM manufacturing data, pointing out reports of supply chain disruptions, labor cost pressures, and a general rise in inflation. With markets looking past recent COVID-19 data with promising vaccine announcements, value is growing increasingly attractive here in the U.S., the U.K., Europe, and Asia. However, Boockvar explains his concerns of markets tightening with the onset of growth and whether the Fed will choose to let the yield curve steepen or prevent it. As CPI increases are the kryptonite of central banks, should the inflation narrative take hold, Boockvar expresses how this may shock global bond markets. Real Vision's Haley Draznin explores the deep dichotomy between the real economy and equity markets, as all major U.S. indices were up to

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to evaluate the value rotation trade and the challenges it will face in the coming months. As November comes to a close – a month that saw record-breaking appreciation in value stocks, cyclicals, and small-caps – Ed and Jack analyzes how rising COVID-19 hospitalizations will impact economic behavior. They then look at liquidity going forward, and how monetary conditions will affect markets over the next few months, incorporating Ed’s interview with Michael Howell and Jack’s upcoming interview with Teddy Vallee. Ed and Jack close by discussing the Government Accountability Office’s report on incorrect jobless claims data, as well as GM’s partial back-pedaling out of its deal with controversial electric vehicle manufacturer Nikola. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Robert Sharratt, managing director at Cresco Fin, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss how crypto is disrupting the traditional banking system and how Cresco Fin is leveraging crypto to provide a higher rate of return on investor savings. Sharratt explains the approach Cresco Fin has taken to provide yield on crypto assets, while also providing insurance, making it comparable to traditional bank accounts. Filmed on November 23, 2020. Key Learnings: We are entering a new era of banking ushered in by blockchain technology. Many new companies are utilizing crypto infrastructure to provide enhanced benefits to their depositors. Providing insured yield on crypto assets may be the next major transition for both crypto and banking companies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisers launches his new series with one of his favorite topics, China, and one of his favorite experts, Louis Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research. In this interview that fringes on debate at times, Gave and Green attack the question of whether the U.S. or China is better positioned since the beginning of the COVID crisis. As well, they discuss a topic they can agree on from Gave's most recent pieces from Gavekal Research, "The Guiding Principle of Our Time". In this piece, Gave lays out the argument that decision making from politics to markets is being driven by one simple factor -- C.Y.A., or "cover your ass". Viewers can find this piece in full here: https://rvtv.io/3oePjKe. Filmed on October 20, 2020. Key Learnings: China not responding to COVID with rate cuts and massive fiscal stimulus has consequences for currency strength, foreign investment flows, and real interest rates. Viewers will come away with an understanding of the important factors to pay attention to when de

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss the all-time highs set on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite on this holiday-shortened trading day in U.S. equity markets. Harrison and Bennington also take a step back to evaluate the broader context for rising stock prices during the month of November. Specifically, the pair explores the apparent recent decrease of political risk in the U.S., the impact of increasing case counts and virus fatalities, the potential effects of a Covid-19 vaccine on the global economic climate, and the risk of future lockdowns and growing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Jack Farley for a Thanksgiving “Ask Me Anything” special edition of the Daily Briefing. Sourcing questions from the Real Vision Exchange, Jack asks Ed questions about whether the U.S. will enter a second round of lockdowns, and whether the equity market could once again undergo a major crash. Ed shares his views on the future of debt, deflation, and commodities, over the next 30 years, as well as his technique learning new languages. Jack and Ed share the ways in which they follow market news, as well as their views on the difference between accounting antics and downright fraud. Lastly, Jack and Ed give an inside look at Real Vision’s ongoing mission to democratize finance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Max Wiethe and Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, discuss Ed's outlook for a winter double-dip recession in the U.S. and the most important questions for determining the breadth, depth, and market implications of this prediction. How bad will the pandemic get before this wave can be arrested? How severe an economic brake will have to occur to get the virus under control? What short- and long-term impact will this have on businesses? What can policymakers do to mitigate downside risk and prevent worst-case outcomes? How will all of this feed through into asset markets? In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin, examines the juxtaposition between the markets hitting record highs and the broader economy as initial jobless claims rise for a second week in a row. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to make sense of today’s price action as the equity markets roar to all-time highs. After the pair briefly discusses the significance of the news that Janet Yellen will likely be named Treasury Secretary, Tony shares his analysis on the value rotation away from the tech giants into cyclical reflation plays like banks, casinos, hotels, and energy. As Tony says, “the world is getting back in business”. Ash and Tony then look the performance of Bitcoin as it approaches its 2017 highs, and explore the future of gold as an inflation hedge. Lastly, Tony gives an update on his trades in the cannabis sector. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin analyzes the market rally to record highs as the Dow surpasses 30,000 for the first time ever and looks into the anticipated rebound in the economy for the second half of 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision editor Jack Farley hosts Tyler Neville of Real Vision for a spirited debate about the fate of risk assets. Tyler makes the case that U.S. equities have a lot more room to run, basing his case on tight credit spreads and the Federal Reserve’s ever-expanding balance sheet. Tyler incorporates market breadth as well as venture capital funding to argue that the punch bowl may never be removed. Jack challenges Tyler’s bullish thesis, asking Tyler about the upcoming expiration of the Fed’s emergency lending programs and the possibility that the holiday season will accelerate the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Jack and Tyler then explore the future of so-called “zombie companies,” whose liabilities have swelled to over $1.2 trillion. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin analyzes the promising developments of a coronavirus vaccine, how it impacts the markets, and why some sectors will benefit a lot more than others. For charts from Tyler as well as Jack, click here: https://rvtv.io/2URRNAH Learn more a

Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes back Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, to analyze how divergent indicators in inflation and growth are revealing trading signals for bonds, commodities, and equities going forward. McCullough breaks down his "Quad"-based investment process, going in greater depth on how "risk ranges" affect his trading across various asset classes such as corn, Chinese and Spanish equities, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Pal and McCullough explore how investors should think about liquidity risks, position sizing, and risk allocation, and the two discuss the role of these factors during a time with such confounding economic data. Filmed on October 21, 2020. Key Learnings: The interplay of volatility, volume and price offers asymmetric opportunities across all asset classes. The rate of change of inflation and growth can be an effective way to determine when to bet on high-conviction trades. Learn more about your ad choices.

Bill Campbell, portfolio manager for Global Bond Strategy at DoubleLine Capital, sits down with Ed Harrison to discuss how he is making sense of the massive paradigm shift to central bank digital currencies. Campbell argues that central banks are late to the party as over 95% of global transactions are already digital, and together they explore the potential for bilateral digital currency settlement to replace the SWIFT system and put downward pressure on the dollar. They also discuss how CBDCs could upend the banking system as traditional revenue centers like cross border payments and custody of assets are muscled in on by central banks. Campbell also touches on how CBDCs could change the way that fiscal and monetary policy is conducted, leading to even more debasement of fiat money and why he thinks there is still one final move lower for yields left in the bond market. Filmed on October 30, 2020. Bill Campbell has written extensively on the topic and viewers can find links to his two most recent papers her