Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Venture capitalist Keith Rabois, a general partner with Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, is widely known for his early-stage startup investments and his executive roles at PayPal, LinkedIn, and Square. He sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, to discuss the evolution of innovation in Silicon Valley over the last two decades, highlighting its entrepreneurial spirit and the revolutionary power of technology. They dive into the shifts in consumer behavior amid the coronavirus pandemic, the IPO market boom, the rise of SPACs, and how COVID-19 could transform higher education. Recorded on September 28, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tyler Winklevoss, CEO and co-founder of Gemini, and Cameron Winklevoss, president and co-founder of Gemini, join Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss how they first discovered Bitcoin, their exploration into other crypto assets, and market psychology. They explain the importance of network effects for Bitcoin, noting that it is a type of social network. The Winklevoss brothers share their grand vision for Gemini and how they plan to shepherd the next wave of adopters away from legacy finance and fully into crypto. Key Learnings: The crypto asset class is very small and, because of this, institutional investors have been unable to get exposure to it. Bitcoin is a very young asset with enormous upside potential. Many people are just starting to get their feet wet in crypto, and the Winklevoss brothers believe that eventually people will leave the legacy financial systems fully for crypto infrastructure with Gemini helping to facilitate this migration. Recorded on December 7, 2020 Learn more about your ad choice

Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital, gives Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, an inside glimpse of the seismic forces that are radically transforming the investment landscape — from SPACs and tokenization to data autonomy and virtual learning. Palihapitiya argues that old structures of capital formation, which prioritized buybacks rather than Research & Development (R&D) and "efficiency" rather than resiliency, will give way to a new future in which fintech companies will replace "too big to fail" banks, green energy will de-escalate geopolitical tensions, and tokenization will serve as a digital ledger for every financial transaction. Palihapitiya and Pal discuss the role of Bitcoin in this new world, and Palihapitiya advocates for a form of Universal Basic Income (UBI). Key Learnings: The old ways of managing companies and allocating capital were unsound, and COVID-19 has laid bare the fact that the "emperor has no clothes." With radical change is on the horizon, investors should embrace these technologica

Harvey Sawikin, co-founder and lead portfolio manager at Firebird Management, a fund dedicated to investing in frontier and emerging market equities in Eastern Europe, joins Real Vision editor/reporter Haley Draznin for a conversation about the development of emerging markets over the past several decades and the sector outlook. Firebird started out as the first Russian portfolio equity fund and has since expanded to include other countries in the region such as Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Romania. Sawikin shares why his investment strategy differs in more mature and developed markets, how a typical investor in emerging markets has evolved, portfolio repositioning amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and the value of travel in investing. . Key learnings: Emerging markets are often a blind spot for investors—finding them requires assessing liquidity risk and geopolitical climate. Dollar strength and weakness is the macro factor that has the biggest impact on emerging markets. The disinflationary environment has led Firebi

William White, former central banker at the BoE, BoC, and BIS and senior fellow at the CD Howe Institute, has been a thorn in the side of his central banking colleagues for decades, questioning their hubris and pushing hard for a paradigm shift from within. Together with legendary financial commentator Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, White explores the difficulty of paradigm shifts within central banking and the overwhelming historical evidence that this easy money experiment will end badly. White also expresses what he believes to be the core problem with central bankers' analytical framework — namely, that it assumes that the global economic system is "comprehensible, understandable, and controllable" rather than a complex, adaptive system with characteristics that are not present in the models that attempt to decipher it. As well, Grant questions White on his views on Bitcoin, how he personally invests, what he would do if he were running the Federal Reserve, and if there is any possible way o

Rohan Grey, president of Modern Money Network & doctoral fellow at Cornell Law, joins Santiago Velez, co-founder and R&D division lead for Block Digital, to discuss the controversial STABLE Act, the history of private and public monies, and the future of stable coins. Grey gives a detailed history lesson on money and its relationship to government. They talk through the key tenets of the STABLE Act and its implications for the crypto space over all and stable coins more specifically. Grey explains the differences between Central Bank Digital Currencies and E-Money and touches on the importance of privacy for financial transactions. Key Learnings: The government and public monies are strongly connected, and Grey believes that there are major systemic risks presented by assets aiming to disrupt the government's oversight of the issuance of its money with history providing strong evidence of these risks. For those investing in the crypto space, the passing of the STABLE Act may negatively impact certain types of

Special Edition of Daily Briefing with Ash Bennington and Ed Harrison. They will answer audience questions, provide an update on what they're seeing in markets this holiday season, and look ahead to the opportunities and macro risks for 2021. Checkout Real Vision's newest podcasts : Ground Floor Consensus : apple podcast link : https://rvtv.io/3ri3RKD Between2Chains: Apple Podcast link : https://rvtv.io/2KAONXO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tony Greer of TG Macro to discuss the new fiscal package from Congress, the macro signals Tony has his eye on, and his outlook for the new year. Tony discusses how the spending package is insufficient, especially for American families, and describes the markets’ reaction as slightly “sell the fact” as made evident by the DXY’s modest but noticeable bounce. After Ash reviews some of the current data for COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S., Tony says that markets are still looking past this information and are more focused on the reopening. He also describes the relationship of the dollar and equities as it relates to the Fed’s modus operandi to create inflation with a weaker dollar. Finally, he shares the new opportunity that he sees emerging for U.S. financials, what he’s looking out for in the new year, and why he’s holding onto more dry powder during this holiday season. In the intro, editor Jack Farley covers Ripple's SEC investigation, U.S. bankruptcies, as

In the grand finale to “The Big Picture,” Jason Buck speaks to Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital. Chris is one of the sharpest players in the volatility space and has made his name by playing risks and opportunities that others can’t see. An outspoken critic of the 60/40 equity/bond split, Chris is an advocate of what he calls “the dragon portfolio,” which consists of gold, long volatility, and commodity trend-following in addition to stocks and bonds. Chris gave a glimpse of the dragon portfolio when he spoke with Danielle DiMartino Booth on Real Vision in February 2020. Since then, volatility has exploded, both during the massive sell-off in March as well as in the shocking market melt-up since then. Simply put, the dragon has been unleashed. The twin risks of the left tail (deflationary deleveraging) and right tail (inflationary deleveraging) loom large. As Chris wrote in his 2020 report, "to thrive, we must embody the cosmic duality between the hawk and the serpent." For access to Chris’ 2020

Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision editor Jack Farley to break down his market outlook as stimulus talks draw to a close and an alarming new strain of COVID-19 spreads throughout the United Kingdom. Boockvar makes his case for why inflation will continue to rise alongside nominal yields in 2021, and he explains why this macro outlook leads him to look favorably upon commodities and value stocks that trade at significantly low price/earnings multiples since he expects multiples to compress across the equity landscape as nominal yields rise. Boockvar gives a strategic update on the state of the Fed's QE programs and argues that the expiration of the Fed's emergency lending programs is not unwelcome and, in fact, is overdue. Lastly, Boockvar shares with Farley several stocks on his radar, such as CVS Health Corp ($CVS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc ($WBA) as well as evaluates their future business prospect. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin monitors the markets as stimul

Jim Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates, is one of the most legendary investors of all-time, short seller or otherwise. Even after an incredible bull run that has taken many short sellers out back behind the woodshed to be put down, he's still generating incredible alpha for his investors. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Chanos explains why we are in a golden age of fraud where the market fails to recognize frauds until the last minute. He also highlights the dynamic of growth-starved investors willing to throw money at any company that can demonstrate a large total addressable market (TAM) even if there is no demonstrable chance of profit. He cites business models like Uber and Grubhub as examples of the market's TAMSanity. He also touches on two of his highest conviction shorts, IBM and the commercial real estate sector, with IBM being described as the ultimate example of a COVID loser and commercial real estate being described as a "slow motion train wreck." Key Learnings:

For the past decade, Russell Napier has correctly called for disinflation, dissenting with the conventional wisdom that inflation is on horizon. Yet he has changed his mind, and in this conversation with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, Napier explains why he believes the inflationary tides, so long delayed, may soon arrive on the shores of currencies such as the dollar and the euro. Napier argues that fiscal authorities are, via macroprudential regulation, essentially compelling commercial banks to lend and are also requiring them to hold unattractive assets such as negative yielding debt. This new force, Napier continues, will succeed where quantitative easing (QE) has failed in expanding commercial bank balance sheets. Johnson and Napier analyze how this new potential regime will impact affect pensioners, students, and savers as well as how it will shape the destiny of every asset class ranging from equities to Treasurys, from European bank debt to currencies, and from mortgage-backed securities to

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share his market wrap-up of 2020. They monitor the price dislocations at the close as the S&P 500 was under pressure all day ahead of Tesla’s historic entry into the index. Pal looks back at the year that was from equities to the bond market to crypto to gold, silver and copper. He sees emerging markets breaking out in 2021, specifically identifying opportunities in Iran. In the intro, Real Vision editor/reporter Haley Draznin touches upon Coinbase filing for an IPO as Bitcoin surges to all-time. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors joins Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, to share his market outlook as U.S. equities yet again reach all-time highs. Green breaks down the current market structure, looking at how changes to order book depth and inter-asset correlations present investment risks. Green and Bennington discuss commodities, passive investing, and the Fed’s latest FOMC meeting, with Green sharing his outlook on inflation and interest rates. Lastly, Bennington asks Green his views on crypto-assets and particularly Bitcoin, which continues to surge immensely. In the intro, editor Jack Farley jobless reports on today’s jobless claims, the status of U.S. fiscal stimulus, and Tesla’s looming entry into the S&P 500. The paper by Rob Arnott on Tesla, which Jack mentions, can be found here: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/819-tesla-the-largest-cap-stock-ever.html?evar36=eml_tesla-hero-title&_cldee=amFja0ByZWFsdmlzaW9uLmNvbQ%3d%3d&recipientid=contact-a2eae8d2e63b

Real Vision Managing Editor Ed Harrison and Editor Max Wiethe discuss the next turn of the rotation trade and the few crumbs of information served up from today's Fed meeting. Ed and Max begin by briefly addressing today’s Fed FOMC meeting where, almost no majors changes were announced and focus on the updated summary of economic projections. They then examine the bull case for the next leg of the rotation trade and the argument that its geography could be much different than the prior leg. They also discuss a few recent market anomalies surrounding algorithmic trading, as well as the recent onslaught of IPOs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision’s Jack Farley, who is filling in for Dave Floyd. Jack and Ash break down the rising volumes of put option contracts on DoorDash, and the announcement that Blade Urban Air Mobility will go public in 2021 via a SPAC. Ash then provides his analysis on COVID-19 hospitalizations and Georgia’s elections. Lastly, Ash and Jack discuss big tech valuations and preview this week’s interviews. In the intro, Haley Draznin updates viewers on REITs and Congress’ stimulus progress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the growing corporate debt crisis. Ed and Jack discuss the latest report from the Group of Thirty, which finds that balance sheet impairment will complicate economic recovery and persist long after this pandemic ends. Ed crystallizes the risks into three separate categories—pandemic-related, economic, and financial—and incorporates these risks into Raoul’s framework on the “insolvency phase." Ed and Jack also discuss fiscal aid, sector rotation, and lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses the joyous news of the beginnings of vaccine distribution in the U.S., AstraZeneca's announcement to acquire Alexion Pharmaceuticals, and the sterling's rally on renewed Brexit trade negotiations. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Acclaimed financial advisor Ric Edelman, founder of the RIA Digital Assets Council (www.riadac.com) and Edelman Financial Engines, the #1 RIA firm in the nation according to Barron’s, talks with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal about the barriers preventing financial managers and investors from buying bitcoin and how the crypto community can gain mass adoption. Edelman explains the benefits of adding Bitcoin to a diversified portfolio, shares his approach to investing in digital assets, and reveals his expectations for a Bitcoin ETF. All this and more, recorded Nov. 30, 2020. Key Learnings: Due to the slow progress of an official Bitcoin ETF, there are significant barriers to entry for financial managers to give their clients exposure to this asset class. Edelman explains how these barriers will eventually be removed. As Bitcoin provides valuable diversification for portfolios where traditional allocations may no longer generate satisfactory returns and hedge risk in the current market environment, there is an urgen

James Litinsky, founder and CEO of MP Materials ($MP), is joined by Real Vision editor Jack Farley to discuss his mission to restore to North America the rare earth supply chain, which for decades has been dominated by China. Litinsky highlights the critical role rare earth elements are playing in the economy of the future, explaining their uses in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other markets that are set to dramatically expand. After Litinsky shares his experience in MP Materials’ going public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), he and Farley discuss the properties of MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine that make it uniquely able to produce rare earth concentrate at a low cost and in an environmentally-friendly manner. Lastly, Litinsky, a former hedge fund manager, puts back on his "investor" hat to share his macro framework. For the Real Vision "Discoveries" documentary on the Mountain Pass mine, click here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/discoveries/videos/the-rare-earth-metal-megatrend

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss water futures, “bubblicious” market froth, and potential anti-competitive behavior by Big Tech. After Ed and Ash give their brief review of political news, Ed shares his analysis of the recent IPOs of DoorDash and Airbnb with Ash noting parallels between current market conditions and those that preceded the Dot-com bubble. Ed and Ash then explore the significance of the recent addition of water futures to the CME exchange. In the intro, Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura embark on a chart-filled journey on the Nikkei 225, the Japanese Yen, and currency pairs. For greater details and more charts from Weston and Jack, check out their conversation in the Real Vision Exchange: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/follow-up-to-my-daily-briefing-intro-with-weston-nakamura-s-galore-5fd3f00fffc3b852f6b03a2b. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices