Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

With a phenomenal investment track record greater than perhaps even Warren Buffett and George Soros, Joel Greenblatt is renowned as one of the world's greatest investors in history. Yet recently, he has turned his gaze beyond markets to focus his attention on fixing problems in society, ranging from banking and retirement to education and even immigration. In this interview with managing editor Ed Harrison, Greenblatt discusses his common sense solutions to society's ills, using the same analytical framework that brought him tremendous success in the investment world. Greenblatt also shares his investment philosophy and current market outlook. Recorded on October 19, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the economic impact of the partial lockdowns U.S. officials are implementing day-by-day as cases and deaths from COVID-19 spiral out of control. Ed evaluates the latest rise in joblessness claims, the exponential increase in hospitalizations, the looming expiration of the CARES Act, and the Fed’s emergency lending programs, ultimately concluding that a double-dip recession in the U.S. could be on the horizon. Lastly, Jack and Ed discuss China’s first negative-yielding bond (denominated in Euros) as well as Bitcoin’s continued surge. In the intro, Haley Draznin looks at the increase in U.S. jobless claims filed this week and its broader implications on the markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision Managing editor Ed Harrison hosts Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the opportunities and risks on the investment horizon. Tommy explores whether the ongoing rotation into value will continue, sharing his views on sectors such as energy, financials, and retail. He and Ed then investigate whether bonds’ rally is a harbinger of trouble for stocks, and how various asset classes such as gold and bitcoin perform should there be a major selloff in the equity market. Lastly, Tommy discusses why he remains bearish on Tesla despite its significant rally, and shares his fundamental analysis of the electric vehicle maker as well as his framework for managing risk. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at oil futures, vaccine progress, and MTA’s woes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group back to the Daily Briefing to evaluate price action in the S&P 500, the U.S. 10 year Treasury note, and a variety of currency pairs. Dave shares his framework for trading these asset classes, incorporating technical indicators such as moving averages, stochastic oscillators, relative strength indicators, Fibonacci retracement levels as well as some proprietary trading signals from Aspen Trading Group. Dave and Ash discuss how the relationship between price to volume can reveal “footprints” in various markets to identify inflection points. Finally, Dave shares his own views on the psychology of trading such as knowing when to be cautious and when to pull the trigger. Real Vision's Haley Draznin explains why the markets fell on Tuesday after record highs on Monday, looking closely at the timeline for a vaccine, uptick in coronavirus cases, Tesla moving to the S&P 500 from the Nasdaq, and US retail sales missing expectations. T

Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, discuss the all-time highs being set in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the news of Moderna’s vaccine being 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19 breathes life into U.S. equities. Ed evaluates the price action through his risk-on framework, exploring the possibility that record cash on the sidelines, held by central banks, households, as well as private equity firms, could further buoy markets. He and Ash then discuss how the increasing lockdowns across the U.S. will likely stymie growth, weighing how these opposing forces will impact markets going forward. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews price action in equity and volatility markets and shows a clip from Mike Green’s interview with Jim Chanos, the first interview in Real Vision's series “Paradigm Shift: Investment Ideas for a World in Flux.” To sign-up to Real Vision to watch these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/paradigm-shift Learn more ab

Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management are both keenly focused on the complex task of discerning China's economic reality. In this interview, Bass and Pettis attack the important issues of capital flight, China's massive economic inequality, and their domestic debt burden, just to name a few. They both tend to agree on what is most important, but not always the takeaway from the data. It is the nuanced differences in their interpretations of the current state of affairs that had even Kyle Bass remarking at how much he was able to take away from this enlightening and pleasantly civil back and forth. Recorded on October 7, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has evolved his investment style over the years, and although he is still the "bond king", increasingly he has become multi-asset with a focus on getting the macro right. In this interview with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, Gundlach explains how he thinks about time frames, position sizing based on asset class, and how his style changes based on whether the market is alpha or beta driven. He also provides his current outlook, arguing that there is not much opportunity in this environment and that the most important thing at the moment is managing risk while patiently waiting for the next big trade. He also touches on timely topics like the potential for a wave of insolvency, why he believes we are in the midst of The Fourth Turning, his skeptical view of bitcoin, and why he is bullish on the dollar in the short term despite his highest conviction macro view being pronounced dollar weakness. Recorded on October 1, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, discuss the growing shutdown measures in the U.S. even as the S&P 500 makes all-time highs. Looking at declining mobility data, Pal explores how the prospect of a full lockdown in the U.S will depress economic activity as well as perhaps markets. He and Ash then discuss default risk and the stock sales of Pfizer’s CEO before zooming out into macro issues such as how stagnant money velocity affects retirees and how rise in the monetary base could buoy precious metals and bitcoin. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews price action, evaluates the distress of cruise liners, and the looming expiration of the Fed’s emergency lending programs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down a day of heavy selling across sectors as COVID-19 cases surge to unseen levels. Ed interprets what the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index means and shares his views on how, shutdown or not, the rise of coronavirus will likely depress economic activity. Ed and Jack discuss the flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield and the heavy selling of value equities, with Jack asking Ed whether the rotation into value will resurge or is in fact over. After quickly reviewing price action in volatility markets, Ed and Jack give a sneak peek of the “Paradigm Shift: Investment Ideas for a World in Flux” featuring Jim Chanos, Mike Green, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Kyle Bass, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, William White, and many other legends of the investment world. In the intro, Peter Cooper explores the current state of the coronavirus epidemic in the States and reviews the jobless claims report that came out today. For the charts t

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, break down the pausing of the rotation out of growth and into value as cases and hospitalization in the U.S. surge to unseen levels. Ash breaks down Bill Ackman’s hedge against investment grade credit, and Ed explores how much central bank liquidity there is on the sidelines waiting to buoy asset prices. The pair also discuss taxes, the outcome of the U.S. elections, as well as Ed’s upcoming interview with Michael Howell. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at credit spreads and gives a sneak peek of Real Vision’s upcoming interview series with investing legends such as Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, Jim Chanos, Kiril Sokoloff, Sam Zell, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Raoul Pal, Kyle Bass, and Russell Napier. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to examine the latest euphoric episode in markets. Greer discusses how the rotation in the markets demonstrates their renewed focus on a post-pandemic world as the pattern from the last several months of trading is coming undone. He shares his thoughts on the appropriate balance of a political perspective to a market outlook, where inflation will begin to crop up under a Biden administration, and trades he’s paying attention to in energy, tech, commodities, and more. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at how the markets have reacted to potential vaccine news and how big tech companies across the globe, like Amazon and Alibaba, have become a major focus for regulators. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NOTE: THIS DAILY BRIEFING WAS FILMED THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5. Fielding questions from Real Vision subscribers, senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, analyze how the various outcomes of the 2020 U.S. election will impact markets. Ash and Ed talk about the future of Real Vision content, price action across bitcoin, bonds, and equities, and the likely underperformance of the 60/40 portfolio should the economy enter a cyclical downturn. Ash and Ed analyze how the prospect of divided government (i.e., a Biden presidency coinciding with a Republican senate) will affect earnings potential and fiscal stimulus. They also share their views on potential cabinets picks for the next U.S. President. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Howard Lindzon, general partner at Social Leverage, tells Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal why he is bullish on the digital future of business despite acknowledging the harsh economic realities that have emerged since COVID. Lindzon argues that there is a shortage of investible opportunities to capitalize on this trend and this is what we are seeing in stretched tech valuations. He also discusses how he has bet on the democratization of finance with his investments in StockTwits, Robinhood, and eToro and explains why he is still not sold on crypto despite being exposed to the space. Filmed on September 28, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kiril Sokoloff sits down with Raoul Pal to discuss why he believes the bull market for precious metals is only in its fourth inning. All-in costs of gold production are under $1000 compared to the current price of $1900, creating profit margins never seen before in the industry. In effect, the gold mining companies have become free-cash flow machines. With US federal deficits growing as far as the eye can see, and the US owing more to the rest of the world than any nation in history, a dollar crisis is brewing, which will launch gold on the next leg of its bull market. Filmed on October 16, 2020. Key Learnings: Gold and gold miners are under-owned, misunderstood, and the beneficiary of many other current economic and financial trends. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, review this past week’s “everything rally” and key macro indicators against the backdrop of political uncertainty and COVID-19. Ed explains the two different narratives around the market rally — either the markets’ growing comfort over a split government or the markets had priced in more chaos that hasn’t yet come to fruition. He then also breaks down the narrative of a backpedaling economic recovery that the bond market and the macro indicators such as the ISM reports and jobs reports are reinforcing. Ash and Ed also touch on whether we’ll return to a high hospitalization and death rate with the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and reiterates how the social response and the durable changes to demand are not driven by policy alone. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin walks us through the October jobs report, how it exceeded expectations and its impact on the markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by Jay Pelosky, co-founder and CIO of TPW Investment Management, to provide an update on his current outlook amid a turbulent election and uncertain future with stimulus and COVID-19. Pelosky argues that markets are getting closer to end of this period of peak uncertainty around these variables and that deep cyclicals like airlines and oil will rally sharply higher. Pelosky also explains that as the election race comes to a close, markets have been oversold in the past week and are becoming more comfortable with the idea of a split government as investors gain clarity. He digs further into the question of stimulus - a matter of “when,” not “if” - and contends that a vaccine may roll out sooner than stimulus, which would cause the markets to react aggressively, raise rates, and could set up a rotation trade out of tech and into cyclicals. Finally, he also discusses asset allocation and his thesis of a tripolar world. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at mar

In light of the market rally along with election uncertainty today, Ash Bennington & Ed Harrison ask, "just what exactly are the markets celebrating?" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, to break down the hidden forces driving markets on U.S. election day. Disagreeing with the linear narratives about how election results impact markets, Krishnan instead analyzes the market plumbing, looking at the trend spike in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, interest rate volatility, and the likely forced selling options dealers’ will have to conduct should the S&P 500 start to show weakness. After Krishnan shares with Bennington his theory explaining the “kink” in the VIX futures curve, he imparts the following advice to traders: “never panic.” In the intro, reporter Haley Draznin breaks down investor optimism in global equities, the impact of high turnout of U.S. voters, and the halting of Ant Group’s massive I.P.O. Recorded on Nov 3, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes Tommy Thornton, president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to break down his framework for trading markets as the U.S. Presidential election rapidly approaches. Thornton looks at market sentiment and trader positioning, concluding that investors are net long this market, which limits upside potential, with extremely low short interest. Bennington and Thornton explore price action in European markets and look forward to vaccine news. Thornton then describes several trades he sees in cannabis and coffee, advising viewers on the value of holding dry powder as well as not getting sucked into narratives. In the intro, editor Jack Farley takes a look at Europe’s lockdowns, election odds, and price action in the credit markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michael Saylor, chairman & CEO of MicroStrategy Inc., joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to discuss MicroStrategy’s major Bitcoin acquisitions. Saylor describes his background, what led up to the creation of MicroStrategy, and its recent push to bring Bitcoin into the corporate world. He explains his first encounter with cryptocurrencies and how his views on it have evolved over the years. Saylor touches on the power and value of Bitcoin and its unique utility of being able to convey “100 million dollars across 100 years.” Finally, Saylor shares how they store the Bitcoin owned by MicroStrategy and the timeline of the investment. Filmed on September 16, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices