Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Real Vision’s new president, Travis Kimmel, to the Daily Briefing. Travis shares his Real Vision journey from an entrepreneur to a self-taught investor and outlines his macro framework for thinking inflation, credit creation, and currency flows. Travis explains why he isn’t fully convinced by the reflation narrative and why he believes that fiscal aid is more likely papering over the cracks than truly providing economic stimulus. Travis shares his view of Bitcoin, which he calls “a curious beast” and “a tabula rasa for narratives.” Lastly, Travis tells Ed about his concerns about the stable coin Tether. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines the markets reacting ahead of President-elect Biden’s stimulus speech this evening, and the implications of the jobless claims rising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Max Wiethe to discuss why he thinks US treasury yields—and not the dollar—is the key to the success or failure of the reflation trade. Together Ed and Max discuss the recent action in the bond market, the knock-on effects this has had for other reflation assets like precious metals, commodities, and equities, and the three discrete outcomes that Ed believes could arise in 2021 depending on the direction and speed of bond market moves. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of the latest Consumer Price Index data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings, joins Real Vision ceo Raoul Pal to discuss investing in the crypto space, the risk curve, and accelerating crypto adoption. Novogratz breaks down how he allocates his own crypto portfolio and touches on some of the lessons he learned in the 2017 crypto bubble. He explains the impact that COVID-19 had on crypto and the digitization of everything. Novogratz describes the different products and funds available through Galaxy Digital Holdings.Key Learnings: The crypto investment space is growing quickly, and Novogratz shares some of the lessons learned from the previous crypto bubbles he has experienced. He explains the importance of staying rational, and touches on some of the key metrics he follows, such as, market cap and fully diluted market cap. Community and use or "pick up" of a project are core components he looks at when studying a new crypto investment. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/ad

Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the full force of inflation that could emerge in 2021 could pose a significant risk to the Fed’s ability to execute. With Treasury yields rising, Boockvar anticipates the scrutiny of stocks with high price-to-earnings ratios to continue expanding, and once the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine becomes more extensive in the coming months, he explains that the shift in spending toward services-oriented consumption could trigger a rise in nominal rates, but not necessarily in real rates. With the potential risk of inflation accelerating in the coming months and a yield curve that could steepen too quickly, he argues that these circumstances will restrict the Fed’s ability to act in the case of a market event. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines the continued rise in treasury yields and the macro economic impact of all the debt that has been printed by the U.S. government. Learn more abou

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the interplay between interest rates and duration and why lower interest rates cause growth stocks to explode higher as well as what rising yields mean for risk assets and the dollar. Ed and Jack discuss Bitcoin, analyzing its volatility profile as well as its correlation to other cryptocurrencies and to traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Since Bitcoin is in the hands of more institutional investors, who also own and trade traditional assets, Ed and Jack also explore whether the success of Raoul’s “wall of money” thesis means that Bitcoin will be more positively correlated to stocks and bonds going forward. Lastly, Ed shares several market dislocations that are on his horizon which are shaping his macro framework and trade ideas. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explains why market sentiment is dim on Monday, a modest reversal after last week’s strong start to 2021. Learn more about your ad choic

Recorded on 3 Sep, 2020. Central banks are powerful entities -- of this, there is no doubt. As of late, however, they have gone from powerful to almost omnipotent. Markets hang on their every word, and even minuscule changes in rhetoric, implied or explicit, have monumental impacts on how participants position themselves. Since March, the “Fed's got your back” mantra has rocketed markets to new all-time highs. Now, there are two questions to be had. First, what role will central banks play moving forward as they go above and beyond their mandates? Second, will their macro framework and economic toolkit be enough to lift growth and change the path of inflation? In an attempt to understand how this all plays out, we’ve invited Jeff Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, to sit down with Ed Harrison in this segment of Real Vision Live. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Recorded on 18 Aug 2020. The unprecedented nature of everything going on today has made topics such as the viability of fiat currencies, USD reserve status, Bitcoin, monetary/fiscal policy, and precious metals the talk of the town. Everyone is now wondering what these things mean and how they will impact their lives moving forward. No doubt, questions abound. However, by using macroeconomics as a lens, one can begin to understand not just what these seemingly complicated things are, but how their interrelated nature can impact the world around us. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy recently did an Expert View where she laid out many of her positions on these concepts and how they fit into her strategy. For this segment of Real Vision Live, we’ve invited her back to sit down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, for a macro masterclass where they will dive into these different areas in an attempt to understand where we are, and more importantly, where we may end up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit m

Dan Morehead, CEO and founder of Pantera Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the current macro setup and its relationship to crypto as well as why this crypto bull market is different from the last and what the potential benefits could be from incoming regulations. Morehead explains what the focus at Pantera Capital has been over the past several months, including what he expects to outperform in the crypto sector. He also describes how he sees the crypto ecosystem evolving over the next few years and why the entry of Paypal into the crypto space is significant. Key Learnings: With his extensive knowledge of the macro world, Morehead brings a wealth of expertise to the crypto space, and he expounds on what factors may have contributed to the recent surge in crypto interest and value. He describes why Bitcoin will likely continue to do well; however, he elaborates on why he expects other crypto assets to outperform and why Bitcoin might not be able to outperform some smaller assets in the secto

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal returns to the Daily Briefing to share with Ash Bennington his updated thesis for the new year. Raoul argues that the prevailing narrative around reflation is a “one-sided bet” (short bonds, short dollars, long commodities, and long equities) that offers little upside, remains vulnerable to the risk of shutdowns, leaves a lasting scar on the labor market that will take years to recover from, and causes a spike in the U.S. dollar, which would serve as a “wrecking ball” for a host of reflation risk assets. Instead, Raoul prefers bonds, a sprinkling of puts on the S&P 500, and of course crypto, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum. Raoul and Ash reflect on the tremendous rally in Bitcoin and discuss how Metcalfe’s law applies to it and Ethereum. They also discuss the implications of the rise in COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations and how those factors will affect markets and the economy. In the intro, editor Jack Farley reports on the latest jobs numbers and reviews price action in Tesl

Real Vision managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst examine the consensus around reflation which has gripped financial markets – a narrative that Roger views as the most unanimous one he’s seen in his entire career. Ed and Roger first define reflation as a pick-up in growth alongside inflation and explore why so many market participants believe it to be a foregone conclusion. They then discuss the rush into small-caps, high yield, and low-quality stocks that has occurred as the confidence in reflation has strengthened. Ed and Roger consider everything from the yield curve to job losses to speculative positioning in copper and cattle, and they look forward to what is on the horizon for markets and the economy. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines why the political unrest in Washington didn’t dent cryptocurrency or the stock market’s ongoing rally Thursday, and she looks ahead at what to expect from the job market in 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, believes that liquidity is the ultimate force driving global markets. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Howell argues that liquidity, debt, and asset prices are interlocked in a predictable cyclical relationship that he calls "the debt-liquidity spiral." Although - as its name suggests - this cycle results in higher debt levels and risk, it isn't inherently bearish for equities. Together, Howell and Harrison discuss where we are currently in this cycle and why it has him bullish on the Euro, equities, gold, and bitcoin, but bearish on bonds and the Dollar. They also discuss the effects of the U.S. decoupling from China on a handful of assets and why it will likely continue under a Biden administration. . Key Learnings: Howell’s liquidity models have him cautiously bullish on equities — more specifically, his models are indicating that they are nowhere near bubble territory and haven’t been since 2000. His models also point towards a lower Dollar, hig

In this unique edition of the Real Vision Daily Briefing, managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington give a breaking news update on the unprecedented events unfolding in Washington, D.C., whether or not they will have impact on the markets having closed at record high, and if they are reflective of events on the ground or are divorced from political and social reality. Then, Real Vision’s Nick Correa discusses the ADP jobs report and the possibility of a jobless recovery for the U.S. economy. In the main segment, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy tells Real Vision’s Jack Farley how her reflation thesis has been shaped by recent events such as the Georgia runoff election, the release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes, and the chaos in the nation’s capital. Alden shares her latest trades on EM bank stocks and breaks down various quantitative measures to value Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to share his thoughts on the first rally of the new year. Tony arrives in high spirits as the eye-popping gains of crude oil, iron ore, and nickel authenticate his bullish-commodities thesis. He eyes the agricultural grain commodities such as wheat and corn for entry points and tells Ash why the ISM Manufacturing reading of 60.7 shows him why inflation isn’t just on the horizon but is in fact already here. Ash provides context on Chinese demand for commodities and Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cut of oil. Lastly, Tony broadens his gaze to the macro picture, declaring that the ultra-dovish policies of the Federal Reserve are creating a “liquidity bonanza” that is rendering commodities an “inflation hedge paradise.” In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin reports on tonight’s two runoff senate elections in Georgia and their potential market impact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hayman Capital's founder and CIO Kyle Bass welcomes forensic accountant and Behind the Balance Sheet's founder Stephen Clapham to break down the accounting irregularities peppered throughout the regulatory filings of China’s biggest tech companies. Sharing insights from his proprietary research report on Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, Meituan Dianping, and Tencent, Clapham shines a light on the ways these companies are using loopholes in order to inflate profits, hide liabilities, and mask the capitalization of questionable assets. Bass frames Clapham's findings through the lens of notable balance sheet disasters and downright frauds, and they explore the jurisdictional risk of investing in Chinese companies in general. Lastly, Bass asks Clapham about his latest book, "The Smart Money Method: How to Pick Stocks Like A Hedge Fund Pro". Key Learnings: Hidden risks lurk within corporate balance sheets, even those of the world’s largest tech companies. Stephen Clapham and Kyle Bass show viewers how to spot those risks b

Mike Green kicks off the Real Vision Daily Briefing in 2021 with Real Vision’s Max Wiethe. Although markets sold off and volatility rose sharply, Mike was not particularly surprised by today’s price action and attributes today’s selloff to market participants who waited until 2021 to take profits rather than the runoff risks that many attributed to this. He also makes the case for markets building towards a substantial correction at some point in 2021 and gives his outlook for the Georgia runoff and other important events on the horizon. In the intro section, Haley Draznin analyzes recent price action in bitcoin and equity markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Recorded on October 8, 2020. Olaf Carlson-Wee, founder & CEO of Polychain Capital, joins Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss Web3, decentralized finance, and the future of blockchain technology. Carlson-Wee describes his background, being Coinbase’s first employee, and the creation of Polychain Capital. He covers decentralized autonomous organizations, how they operate today, and how they will look in the future. Carlson-Wee goes into detail about the next generation of blockchains and how they differ from Bitcoin and the utility they hope to achieve. He explains the importance of defi and breaks down how he approaches research to find "the next big thing". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Recorded on 17 August 2020. It's no secret that as of late, precious metals have become the talk of the town. Gold recently blasted through its all time high, while silver continues its seemingly unstoppable run. With so much excitement surrounding the two metals, however, one must exercise extreme caution and discipline when choosing a way to gain exposure since not all assets are cut from the same cloth --particularly when it comes to the mining sector. On this segment of Real Vision Live, we bring you an individual that is well versed on the matter as he managed to turn $250k into several million by investing in a mining company that turned out to be a scam. Ultimately, he sold and immediately shorted the stock, which in turn allowed him to benefit from both the rise and fall. Warren Irwin, President and CIO at Rosseau Asset Management, will be joining Max Wiethe to discuss the nature of scams in the mining space and how to go about choosing the right companies to take part in what many believe could be th

Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to re-imagine the future of money, credit, currency, and interest rates. The great predicament of the past decade, Hendry argues, has been the tendency of central bank lending to become "trapped" in the commercial banking sector as reserves rather than being funneled into the real economy to fund productive activity. To fix this problem, Hendry envisions a world of ultra-negative rates in order to funnel the liquidity out of the financial sector. Short-term rates would have to go to -3% -- perhaps even lower in order to accommodate a steep yield curve -- is needed for banks to not go out of business. Pal investigates the profound consequences that this paradigm shift in monetary policy would have on the dollar, inflation, and creation, asking Hendry about alternatives such as perpetual bonds and modern monetary theory. Pal and Hendry then consider the optimal portfolio for this brave new world, including asset

Long-term investment strategist and co-founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham has made a name for himself as a bubble spotter. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Grantham argues that although we are again in a market bubble, it has an entirely different make up than prior bubbles and is almost devoid of the opportunity that these periods of misallocation historically provide. As a result, he sees opportunities as few and far between in public markets. With the exception of emerging markets and the greening of the economy, an endeavor that he believes is a societal necessity, he encourages investors to look towards venture. Together, Grantham and Green also debate China's position in Grantham's emerging market thesis and the green revolution, the pollution paradoxes of greening the economy, and the merits of societies and forms government that incentivize cooperation among people and risk taking in the form of early stage venture capital. Key Learnings: Emerging markets are the only place th

Boaz Weinstein, founder and CIO of Saba Capital Management, made a name for himself at Deutsche Bank in the early days of credit derivatives. Since leaving to start his own fund he has continued to make a name for himself as a master of credit derivatives and relative value. In this interview with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, Weinstein discusses how the current environment of tight spreads for pristine balance sheets and vulnerable companies alike is presenting some interesting relative value opportunities. Harrison and Weinstein also discuss Bill Ackman's recent reup on the same big CDS trade that has helped Saba return over 70% YTD, the Fed’s role in credit markets and credit ETF liquidity problems, and the opportunities Weinstein is seeing in closed-end funds. Key Learnings: The credit of companies with close to zero percent chance of defaulting is trading at the same prices as companies with serious COVID risks is presenting RV opportunities. Closed-end funds trading at discounts to NAV are also presenting