Bloomberg Surveillance

In an ode to our fantastic lineup from the IMF & World Bank Group Meetings last week, it's a Surveillance Special! Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua talk trade, global growth, and geopolitical risks with world leaders, including: the Economy Minister of Spain Roman Escolano, the first IMF Deputy Managing Director David Lipton, the European Commission Commissioner for Economic & Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici, the Economy & Finance Minister of France Bruno Le Maire, and the Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey Mehmet Simsek. All interviews were broadcast on site at the IMF & World Bank Group Meetings in Washington, D.C. this past Friday, April 20.

Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President & Founder, says a long term solution to trade disputes will require something New Deal-like. Brian Wieser, Pivotal Research Senior Research Analyst, says advertising is in a constant state of evolution. Alberto Gallo, Algebris Investments Head of Macro Strategies, says the ECB is also not sure why we're seeing weak European data. Cheryl Bolen, Bloomberg Government White House Reporter, breaks down the stark contrast in shipping costs from the U.S. versus China. And James Albertine, Consumer Edge Research Auto Analyst, recaps Ford and GM earnings with us. 

Alex Webb, Bloomberg Gadfly Columnist, hops in the studio to break Twitter's earnings. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, says we've guaranteed hampered longer-term potential growth. Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors CIO & Founding Partner, says potential GDP is much lower than it's been in the past. And Victor Anthony, Aegis Capital Corporation Analyst, says Twitter is returning back to growth. 

Vince Reinhart, BNY Mellon Chief Economist & Chief Investment Strategist, says in the long run, we're anchored by the growth of aggregate supply. Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says the hard data in Europe has disappointed. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says RBC is forecasting some dollar strength into year end. And Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research, says JPMorgan is best in class for governance. 

Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Founder, says the market should be thinking about inflation risks but it's not currently. David Pearl, Epoch Investment Partners Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager, says Boeing looks a lot cheaper on free cash flow than it does on earnings right now.Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says Europe has stabilized. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Global Fixed Income Strategist, doesn't think oil prices are going to run away. 

Adam Posen, Peterson Institute of Economics, says he still doesn't think inflation risks are very high. Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, BlackRock Investment Institute Chief Multi Asset Strategist, says markets are in a wait-and-see David Lipton, First IMF Deputy Managing Director, says the IMF's message is to prolong the recovery while things are still good. Mario Centeno, EuroGroup President, says most countries in Europe have strong fiscal positions. 

Jason Furman, Former Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, thinks we could have a more pro-growth tax system. Nathan Sheets, PGIM Chief Economist and Former Under Secretary of the Treasury, is concerned about the political dynamic we're seeing globally. Mark Haefele, UBS Global Chief Investment Officer, says emerging markets have held up well as the dollar weakens. Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua discuss the Fed with Milken Institute's Chief Economist Bill Lee. 

Kate Moore, BlackRock Chief Equity Strategist, says she still strongly believes that equities are the place to be. Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor, does not think we've seen the worst of the populist surge yet. Francisco Blanch, Merrill Lynch Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research, says oil prices could definitely push higher if geopolitical risk becomes more prominent. John Sununu, Former WH Chief of Staff under President George H.W. Bush, joins us to remember Barbara Bush. 

Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Finance Reporter, and Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist, wrap Bank of America's earnings. Steven Cook, Council on Foreign Relations Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa studies, says Syria is not a mission that neither Obama nor Trump have fully taken on. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, asks if we can please appreciate how good earnings are. George Goncalves, Nomura Securities Managing Director, thinks we're going to see further price erosion. 

Brian Belski, BMO Capital Markets Chief Investment Strategist, says commercial banks will see strong growth for next 10 years.Jon react to Citi & Wells Fargo.  Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Bloomberg View Columnist, believes that senior military officials have a big challenge with this White House. Stan Collender, Qorvis MSLGroup Executive Vice President, says that the age of austerity has been taken over by the age of overwhelming deficits. Rep. Dave Brat, House Budget Committee Member, says we need to ratchet down the language & just focus on rational policy.

Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says we're missing growth in consumer loans. Geoffrey Yu, UBS Private Banking Head of the U.K. Investment Office, says the ECB could still surprise to the upside. Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Senior Global Equity Strategist, says they're underweight staples and utilities. Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson Co-founder & Analyst, says Verizon and AT&T are primarily bond proxies. 

Ed Morse, Citi Research Global Head of Commodities, says there's been an acceleration of risk-on, risk-off. Gary Shilling, Gary Shilling & Co. President, says there are a lot of deflationary forces out there. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy Media Founder & CEO, says he is relatively, cautiously optimistic for the future of Facebook. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent, recaps reports that House Speaker Paul Ryan will not seek reelection. 

Dr. Keyu Jin, London School of Economics & Political Science Professor, says the confusion about trade deficits by both the U.S. and China is fatal. Daniel Tannebaum, PWC Global Financial Services Sanctions Leader, predicts it will be a "go-fish exercise" to know who actually owns businesses in Russia. Steven A. Cook, CFR Middle Eastern Fellow, sees us inching closer to confrontation on Syria. Scott Galloway, NYU Stern Professor and Author "The Four," says that Facebook isn't doing anything any other media company hasn't tried before.

Adair Turner, Institute For New Economic Thinking Chairman, House of Lords Member, & "Between Debt And The Devil" author, says the U.S. trade deficit is going to increase this year. Jim O'Sullivan, High Frequency Economics Chief U.S. Economist, says we have seen close to 3% growth but it's not clear there's been a real change in potential growth. Carsten Brzeski, ING-DiBa Chief Economist Germany & Austria, says the Eurozone is headed into a strong 2018. Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Intelligence Director of North American Research, says data privacy is not just a Facebook issue, it's a social media issue. 

Alan Krueger, Princeton University Economics Professor, says the Federal Reserve's mission is never complete. Bill Gross, Janus Henderson Fund Manager, says since 1980, real wages have flat-lined. Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says there is no trade war between the U.S. and China. Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Chief Market Strategist, says he's in favor of supply side policies but says we need to be concerned about responsible fiscal action as well. 

Bob Sinche, Amherst Pierpont Securities Global Strategist, advises to be disciplined when reacting to market volatility. Rich Greenfield, BTIG Media and Technology Analyst, thinks the pressure on Facebook's stock is overdone. Miranda Carr, Haitong International Research Executive Director, says Xi's vision for China has changed. Chad Hart, Iowa State University Associate Professor of Economics and Crop Markets Specialist, says over the past 5 years, we've seen a dramatic decline in net farming income. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says the market has changed dramatically in the past decade.

Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, says the U.S. and China are hitting each other pretty hard with rhetoric. Michelle Meyer, BofA Merrill Lynch Head of U.S. Economics, does not think we're going to see big inflationary pressures this year. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Gadfly Columnist, recaps Spotify's direct listing on the NYSE yesterday. Steven Friedman, BNP Paribas Asset Management Senior Economist, says to look to the bond market during breaking news. 

Alberto Gallo, Algebris Head of Macro Strategies, says the growth momentum is fading. Seth Masters, Angel Investor and Former AB Bernstein CIO, joins to look ahead to Spotify's direct listing. Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Public Policy Strategist, says Trump is the "Dessert Before Vegetables President." James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Managing Director & Chief Economist, says a big chunk of the tech sector has moved to Asia in the past decade.

Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman Global Head of Currency Strategy, says the market has been squeezed out of a lot of the short yen positions. Kim Wallace, Eurasia Group Managing Director for the U.S., says the United States' trading partners are confused right now. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of U.S. Economics, thinks there's still some residual slack in the labor market. Jonathan Palmer, Bloomberg Intelligence's Healthcare Analyst, says he doesn't foresee Walmart buying Humana. 

Dean Curnutt, Macro Risk Advisors Founder & CEO, says we're in a U.S.-centric risk environment. Kathleen Fisher, AllianceBernstein Wealth & Investment Head, says they've pushed clients to have a 40% non-U.S. portfolio. Ali Shihabi, Arabia Foundation Founder, says Saudi Arabia should have been added to indexes 10-15 years ago. Kevin Hassett, U.S. Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, says the White House is going to be tougher on spending in the future.