Bloomberg Surveillance

Robert Shiller, Yale University Professor & Nobel Laureate, says we're losing sight of the function of the WTO. Eileen Burbidge, Passion Capital Partner, says there's no other place in the world quite like Silicon Valley. Mark Connors, Credit Suisse Head of Risk Advisory, says the big hedge funds are getting bigger. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research, and Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo Analyst, review the health of U.S. banks.

Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Adviser, and Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, discuss their new roles at Citi and their global outlook. Eric Schoenstein, Jensen Investment Management Portfolio Manager, says for the past couple of years, the market has been pretty complacent. Joe Weisenthal, Bloomberg TV Anchor, says in the oil market, everyone is still focused on U.S. supply.  Glenn Hubbard, Dean of Columbia Business School, says we should want people in the labor force and we need to do a better job of assuring that.

James Glassman, JPMorgan Head Economist for Commercial Banking, says he does not like the sound of tariffs.  Antony Phillipson, British Consul General to New York & Her Majesty’s Trade Commissioner for North America, says the U.S. and U.K. should spend more time teaching each other how their trade systems work.  Peter Navarro, White House National Trade Council Director, says the administration's steel and aluminum tariffs are a calculated strategy for the American people. James Hertling, Bloomberg News EMEA Managing Editor, joins to review the news that President Trump will expel 60 Russian diplomats. 

Lisa Abramowicz is in for Tom Keene while he watches March Madness. Dan Tannebaum, PWC Global Sanctions Leader, says he wants to believe that there's some sort of strategy coming from the White House administration. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group Founder, says the most important bilateral relationship in the world (China and the U.S.) has taken a marked turn to the negative. Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, says she thinks China will continue to take a measured approach. Steve Bell, Bipartisan Policy Center Senior Advisor & Fmr. Senate Budget Committee Staff Director, thinks there are a lot of nerves in the Republican party right now. 

Lisa Abramowicz fills in for Tom Keene who is on Spring break.Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Group Head of Global Macroeconomics, says there's a high likelihood of a significant downturn in the economy in the next few years. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief U.S. Economist, says when we get optimistic about growth, we should still be realistic. Gary White and Matt Damon, Co-Founders of Water Equity & Water.Org, join us on World Water Day to discuss their microfinance venture. 

Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz fills in for Tom Keene while he's off on Spring break. John Silvia, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, predicts the second half of this year will be challenging for some financial markets. Eileen Burbidge, Passion Capital Partner, says she assumes investors want to hear directly from Mark Zuckerberg or Sheryl Sandberg in the near future. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says there will be a lot of attention on the language used in the Fed decision today. Stephanie Miller, Height Securities Senior Vice President, thinks Facebook will confront more of a reckoning with Wall Street than Washington. 

Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz is in for Tom Keene while he's off shopping for bow ties. Richard Windsor, Radio Free Mobile Founder, says contrary to the consumer's general impression, the likes of Facebook and Google are not and have never been free. Brian Levitt, OppenheimerFunds Senior Investment Strategist, continues to believe that equities are the asset class of choice. Diana Choyleva, Enodo Economics Chief Economist, says trade wars are one of the key risks for financial markets this year. James Cakmak, Monness Crespi Hardt & Co. Equity Analyst, says in the short term, Facebook will be in choppy waters.

Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz is in for Tom Keene while he's off on a tropical vacation. On today's show, Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Research Director of Policy Research, says the data suggests the Democrats have a tailwind at their back heading into midterms. Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Investment Officer & Head of Global Fixed Income, Currency, & Commodities, says he can't remember a time when corporate America had as much financial flexibility as it does now. Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Intelligence Head of North American Research, reports Facebook is ramping up their spending to protect user data. Mark Travis, Intrepid Capital Management President & CEO, says he's opportunistic when it comes to his allocations.

Dan Tannebaum, PwC Global Sanctions Leader, says there needs to be a unilateral approach to dealing with Russia. Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Equity Strategist & Managing Director of U.S. Portfolio Strategy, notes twin deficits do not matter until the yield curve inverts. Douglas Irwin, Dartmouth College Professor of Economics, says trade deficits cannot be fought with protectionist measures.Margaret Brennan, CBS's "Face the Nation" Host, says there are real problems with vacancies at the State Department. 

Stephen Roach, Yale University Professor, says the U.S. and China need to restart their economic dialogue. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, thinks Larry Kudlow's new role as National Economic Council Director will be marketing the administration's policies. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says investors are looking at the trade tariffs with a big question mark. Stephanie Wissink, Jefferies Research Analyst & Managing Director, says a number of toy vendors will feel the loss of Toys R Us; the winners will be Amazon and WalMart. 

Enda Curran, Bloomberg's Chief Asia Economics Correspondent, and Ron Temple, Lazard Asset Management Co-Head & Head of U.S. Equity, discuss China and Trump's tariffs. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent, joins us from Canonsbury, PA to report on the special election. Bob Sinche, Amherst Pierpont Global Strategist, says this month's retail sales were a bit of a 'clunker.' Admiral James Stavridis, Tufts University Fletcher School Dean & Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, says the U.S. ought to be combine soft power with hard power to succeed at smart power.

Nick Wadhams, Bloomberg State Department & Foreign Policy Reporter, and Marty Schenker, Bloomberg Chief Content Officer, examine Trump's firing of Rex Tillerson. Nick was aboard the former Secretary of State's plane 4 hours prior to this news breaking. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President, expects Mike Pompeo, the newly appointed Secretary of State, to double down on Trump's hard line message. George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Chairman & Founder, says there has always been tension between the Defense Department, State Department, and CIA. Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics & Politics Correspondent, and Vinny Del Guidice, Bloomberg News Data Editor, break down the CPI data. 

Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO, thinks the housing sector will be resilient to Fed rate hikes. Greg Peters, PGIM Managing Director & Senior Investment Officer, says to look at the broader set of data and trends in the jobs numbers. Chad Bown, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow, says we're all waiting to see how the steel and aluminum tariffs will play out. Dakin Campbell, Bloomberg Finance Americas Reporter, reviews Goldman Sachs's decision to appoint David Solomon as sole president. 

Robin Niblett, Chatham House Director, is concerned that President Trump is stepping forward to meet with Kim Jong-un too early. Michelle Meyer, Bank of America Merill Lynch Head of U.S. Economics, indicates the housing recovery is ongoing. Randall Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor & former member of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, says it's rare to have this kind of synchronized global growth. Bill Gross, Janus Henderson Investors Fund Manager, says trade tariffs are a potential negative and drag on the economy. Austan Goolsbee, University of Chicago Booth School Professor & former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, says 90% of what happens in the economy has nothing to do with Washington. 

Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist, is our featured guest on this International Women's Day. She discusses her outlook for GDP growth, central banks, equities, bonds, the dollar, and of course, the zeitgeist: trade.  

Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives President & Founder, does not think we can sustain 3% GDP growth. Peter Chatwell, Mizuho International Head of European Rates Strategy and Geoffrey Yu, UBS Private Banking Head of the U.K. Investment Office, review the European Central Bank forward guidance out today. Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Research Director of Policy Research, says Republicans want to run on the economic benefits of the tax cut but the tariffs could eat into these benefits. Cynthia Koons, Bloomberg Healthcare Reporter, reports on the Cigna and Express Scripts merger. 

Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments Chief Global Strategist, believes that Secretary Mnuchin will now act as a moderating force in the Trump Administration, though he lacks the gravitas of Cohn. Steve Englander Rafiki Capital Management Head Of Research And Strategy, highlights the difference between a tariff and a quota, and argues that President Trump will soon want the latter. Scott Mushkin, Wolfe Research Managing Director & Senior Research Analyst, predicts that Amazon will have 20% of the share of the consumables market, sucking a lot of share from traditional supermarkets. Michael O'Hanlon, Brookings Senior Fellow: Foreign Policy, believes the Department of Defense could save 5-10% of their budget.

Peter Pae, Bloomberg's Seoul Bureau Chief, recaps the headlines that North Korea is open to denuclearize. Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Group Managing Director & Senior Portfolio Manager, says the bond market suggests there will be more real growth. Kim Wallace, Eurasia Managing Director of United States, notes to say that the process now in Washington is unique, is an understatement. Stephen Schork, Schork Report Editor, says the demand structure for natural gas has totally changed.  Brian Kelly, The Points Guy CEO & Founder, offers his wisdom on how to get inexpensive flights using airline miles. 

Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor, says the results of the Italian election indicates a heavy anti-Europe sentiment. Deborah Lehr, Paulson Institute Senior Fellow, says the World Trade Organization has failed at keeping up with the modern world of trade. Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Global Head of FX Strategy, says the biggest risk to the U.S. dollar would be a sudden loss of confidence from overseas investors.Ted Alden, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, says we live in a very different world than 1961, the world Trump has nostalgia for.

The news flow beckoned a bonus episode! Today, Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI Vice Chairman, says once you go down the tariffs road, it gets complicated. Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Professor says trade is not about winners and losers, it's win-win. Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman Senior Vice President of New York & Head of Currency, says a trade war is not easy to win and it is not desirable. Kerry Brown, Chatham House Associate Fellow in the Asia-Pacific Programme & Professor of Chinese Studies, thinks China was expecting this.