Bloomberg Surveillance

Harm Bandholz, Unicredit Bank Chief U.S. Economist, says there is a good chance that we will see a downturn in 2020. Kathy Fisher, Bernstein Head of Wealth & Investment Strategist, does not expect a terrible recession whenever it comes. Yanis Varoufakis, Former Finance Minister of Greece, thinks Italy is not sustainable within the current rules of the Eurozone. And Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, recommends we read Madeleine Albright's new book, "Fascism: A Warning." 

Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Adviser, says the Nobel Prize for Economics Winner William Nordhaus was a very inspiring teacher. Isaac Boltansky, Compass Point Managing Director of Policy Research & Senior Policy Analyst, says Kavanaugh's confirmation galvanized the political pulse for the midterms. Monica de Bolle, Peterson Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow, thinks Brazil's first round winner Jair Bolsonaro is more nationalistic and state interventionist than the markets seem to realize. And Steve Keen, Kingston University of London Professor of Economics, talks the role of technology in economics after Paul Romer's Nobel Prize win. 

Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds CIO of Growth Equities, focuses on defensive growth stocks while the Fed is tightening. Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan Professor & Former Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Labor from 2010-2011, says wage growth goes mainly to the top end of the income distribution. Timothy O'Brien, Bloomberg Opinion Executive Editor, thinks that the debate around Kavanaugh has moved from sexual harassment to issues regarding his credibility. Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says unemployment can go lower. 

We lead today's podcast with a Bloomberg Businessweek scoop: China used a tiny chip to infiltrate almost 30 U.S. companies. Then we turn to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Global Markets Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, who notes 75% of S&P revenues are U.S. driven. Max Baucus, Former U.S. Ambassador to China & Former Senator from Montana, says countries will have to reach agreements on technology or this will be "the Wild West." Louise Yamada, Technical Research Advisors, says we're now in a new raising rate cycle. Jordan Robertson, Bloomberg News Global Technology Reporter, breaks down his reporting on China's microchips. And Adam Segal, Council on Foreign Relations Digital & Cyberspace Policy Program Director, says this story will shape upcoming security discussions. 

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, says people in the U.K. are sick of ten years of conservative austerity. Anna Edwards, Bloomberg Markets European Open Anchor, reports on PM May's speech at the Tory Party Conference. Craig Trudell, Bloomberg Autos Americas Team Leader, gives us a much needed autos update from Michigan. Edward Alden, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, analyzes the USMCA trade agreement. And David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, previews his upcoming show with Barry Diller.

Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex Chief Market Strategist & Managing Partner, thinks Italy needs growth. Bob Doll, Nuveen Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager & Chief Equity Strategist, says Fed conversations are getting harder as we approach neutral. Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director, is pleased the USMCA exists. Alan Krueger, Princeton Professor of Economics, thinks Amazon is saying, "we are going to be a responsible employer," by raising their minimum wage.

Bill Lee, Milken Chief Economist, says the USMCA is an example of the new bilateral approach to negotiations of the U.S. Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow, says 70% to 100% of the tariffs in autos will fall on consumers. Kimberly Robinson, Bloomberg Law Legal Editor, comments on the political nature of Kavanaugh's speech. Abe Selassie, IMF Director of the African Department, highlights that by 2030 half of the annual increase of the global workforce will come from Sub-Saharan Africa. 

Barry Eichengreen, University of California Professor Berkeley, analyzes the IMF's future. Alberto Gallo, Algebris Macro Strategies Head, sees little contagion in Europe after the approval of the Italian budget. John Coffee, Columbia Law Professor, says the Tesla board is not strong. Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, notes the Republicans have no women on the Senate Judiciary Committee. And Shannon Pettypiece, Bloomberg News White House Reporter, updates us on Sen. Flake's decision to confirm Judge Kavanaugh. 

Thursday’s Senate hearing over sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh stirs memories of similar testimony from 1991. That’s when Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas was called back in his confirmation process to face the sexual misconduct allegations of Anita Hill. Bloomberg’s Bob Moon reports on how this scenario played out 27 years ago.

Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the dollar can climb higher. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Head of Public Policy, is skeptical about Congress ratifying a bilateral trade agreement with Mexico. Peter Chatwell, Mizuho International Head of European Rates Strategy, thinks the ECB could go negative again in the future. And Michelle Meyer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of US Economics, tells us whether to rent or buy property. And Bob Moon, Bloomberg Radio Daybreak Host, joins us to discuss Judge Kavanaugh and 1991. 

Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research & Partner, says they are bullish on owning oil. Werner Hoyer, European Investment Bank President, says Europe is behind in investment. Michael R. Bloomberg, Former Mayor of New York City & Bloomberg LP Founder, says the U.S. needs to have access to China's markets. Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary General, says it is crucial that trade continuous to drive growth. And Roger Ferguson, TIAA CEO & Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair, discusses the Fed rate decision due this afternoon. 

Michael Spence, NYU Professor & Nobel Laureate, says China wants to be a positive influence in the developing world. Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical Strategy, sees discipline in the credit markets. Sarah Ponczek, Bloomberg News Cross Asset Reporter, is watching Facebook shares following the departure of Instagram's founders. Patrick Gregory, Bloomberg Supreme Court Reporter, discusses the latest in the contentious confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh. Erik Schatzker, Bloomberg Editor-at-Large, hops in the booth to discuss the resignation of Argentina's Central Bank Governor Luis Caputo.

Brian Levitt, OppenheimerFunds Senior Market Strategist, favors investment in technology. Rufus Xerxa, National Foreign Trade Council President, says breaking international trade rules undermines the competitiveness and cost structure of companies. Bogolo Kenewendo, Republic of Botswana Minister of Investment, Trade, and Industry, plans for Botswana to go from a middle-income to a high-income country by 2036. Greg Stohr, Bloomberg News Supreme Court Reporter, discusses where the confirmation for Brett Kavanaugh stands.  

Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Securities Chief Economist, says there will be a slowdown in 2020 but it doesn't have to be a recession. Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, says there would have been monetary easing in China even without the trade war. Pennsylvania Representative Ryan Costello says voters want Congressmen who keep their independence. Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Banks & Diversified Financials Research and U.S. Large Cap Banks Analyst, says banks are putting the customer at the heart of their IT platforms. 

Daragh Maher, HSBC US Head of FX Strategy, says investors always ask if it's time to sell the dollar. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Senior Political Strategist and Head of Political Analysis, predicts markets will understand that policy rollback in the U.S. is very unlikely. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg News Investment Banking Reporter, discusses her recent piece on Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO. And Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says his approach has always been to average into positions, both long and short. 

Geoff Dennis, UBS Head of Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy, thinks money will go back to EM once the dollar goes down. Beth Comstock, Former GE Vice-Chair, says that MBA students are not encouraged to be entrepreneurial. Rep. Mike Turner, U.S. Representative for Ohio's 10th congressional district (R), says the president is making headway for Republicans by focusing his message on the economy. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman, discusses his interview with Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO & Founder, which will air tonight on Bloomberg Radio at 5 p.m. and Bloomberg TV at 9 p.m. ET. 

Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates Chairman & NYU Stern School of Business Professor, argues that a majority of the impact of tariffs on Chinese goods will be paid by U.S. consumers. Stephanie Segal, CSIS Deputy Director & Senior Fellow, asks whether, with dollar strength and increasing financial need, the U.S. is pulling financing away from the rest of the world. Jane Foley, Rabobank Senior Currency Analyst, sees sterling as vulnerable until the U.K. government arrives to consensus on a Brexit deal.  Kimberley Robinson, Bloomberg Law Supreme Court Reporter, says that those arguing a case against Kavanaugh have become more focused on whether a denial can disqualify him from the Supreme Court.

Chris Flavelle, Bloomberg News Climate and Adaptation Reporter, reports on the historic rainfall in North Carolina brought on by Hurricane Florence. Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Global Head of FX Trading Strategy, says dispersion is "the name of the game" in currency performance. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Analyst, thinks banks are less susceptible to cycles than in the past. Frances Donald, Manulife Asset Management Head of Macroeconomic Strategy, is concerned about 2020 based on fiscal numbers. Michael Phelps, Olympic Gold Medalist & Colgate Global Ambassador, tells Tom and Pimm how they can reduce their water waste. 

It is September 15, 2008. Employees are pouring out of Lehman Brothers with boxes. The financial services firm has collapsed. In the 10 years since the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history, what have we learned? What has changed and what hasn't? This week, we reflect on the financial crisis with experts from Wall Street, central banks, and academia. This Surveillance Special is a compilation of those interviews.  Guests include: Former Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker, BlackRock's Rupert Harrison, McKinsey Global Institute's Susan Lund, Bloomberg's Yalman Onaran, Grisanti Capital Management's Chris Gristanti, Former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, Unicredit's Erik Nielsen, University College London's Mariana Mazzucato, Former IMF Chief Economist Kenneth Rogoff, RBS Chairman Howard Davies, Former Lehman CFO Brad Hintz, and BNP Paribas USA CEO Jean-Yves Fillion.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Brad Hintz, Former Lehman CFO & NYU Professor, says that from the 2008 financial crisis, we've learned that repo is not stable. Yousef Gamal el-Din, Bloomberg TV Daybreak Middle East Anchor, brings us an update from Turkey. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, says the ECB is not grappling with outrageous inflation. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Chief Economist, says for the most part, the Fed is focused on the U.S. and not EM. And Mark Lehman, JMP Securities President, thinks Apple will continue to garner attention.