Bloomberg Surveillance

Harm Bandholz, Unicredit Bank Chief U.S. Economist, discusses potential for American austerity as the global economy decelerates. Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg News Reporter in Tehran, says Iran sanctions are a sad story for the middle class. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Chief Economist, does not expect the economy to overheat. Jared Bernstein, Fmr. Chief Economist & Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe R. Biden, says we've dropped the ball on public investment. 

Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research, explains how big oil companies are adapting to a de-carbonized world. Eric Ross, Cascend Securities Chief Investment Strategist, analyzes  the "Apple ecosystem." Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan Professor & Former Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Labor, says we have never seen a higher wage gap between workers with college degrees and those without. Kevin Hassett, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, says the U.S. is seeing real wage growth. 

Seema Malhotra, Labour Party Member of Parliament, does not believe we will see a Brexit deal by November 21st. Steve Wieting, Citi Global CIO, expects a positive equity environment in 2019. Steve Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says October was a bucket of cold water for the S&P. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments Chief Political Strategist, says President Trump is absolutely already on the 2020 campaign trail. 

Gerry Fowler, Aberdeen Standard Investments Global Multi-Asset Strategist, says the Libor rate is the key driver of equity markets. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the dollar-renminbi cross has a very political exchange rate. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy Founder & CEO, notes Facebook growth has slowed in the developed world. Troy Gayeski, Skybridge Capital Partner, gives us a hedge fund update. Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, compares loan to bond investment. 

Karen Ubelhart, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Machinery Analyst, sees opportunities in the tech gigs sector. Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, expects more dispersion in returns as capital becomes rationed. Bob Janjuah, Nomura Senior Independent Client Advisor of Global Markets, worries about the "post-easy-money world." Jim O'Sullivan, High Frequency Chief U.S. Economist, expects a strong employment report on Friday. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg TV & Radio Chief Washington Correspondent, updates us on President Trump's immigration plans.  

Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management Chairman, Portfolio Manger & CEO, says IBM hasn't managed to innovate. Shannon K. O'Neil, Council on Foreign Relations VP, Deputy Director of Studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin American Studies, says Brazil's elected President Bolsonaro models himself after U.S. President Trump. Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist, wonders when the sugar high from the tax cut will start to fade. Nina Schick, Rasmussen Global Director of Data & Polling, says it will be tough for Germany to replace Merkel who is a "monolith" for her country and the EU. 

John Ryding, RDQ Economics Chief Economist & Founding Partner, does not think the Fed should stop hiking. Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed President & CEO, tells Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics & Politics Correspondent, that the current market volatility is typical. Nancy Cordes, CBS News Chief Congressional Correspondent, updates us the Senate race in Texas. And Mick Mulvaney, U.S. Office of Management & Budget Director, says the White House expected the low inflation numbers we saw today. 

Gordon Johnson, Vertical Group Managing Director & Analyst, thinks Tesla's positive numbers in 2Q and 3Q are not repeatable. Gary Shilling, A Gary Shilling & Co. President, says we are basically in a deflationary war. Christian Schulz, Citi Economics Team Director, previews the ECB Meeting today. And Gene Munster, Loup Ventures Managing Partner & Co-Founder, forecasts Apple's future in autos. 

Bloomberg’s head of economics Stephanie Flanders calls on Bloomberg's worldwide network of reporters and expert commentators to cast a fresh eye on looming challenges for the world economy which affect us all.This 6 part podcast combines on the ground reporting with expert discussion on the future of cities, finance and technology, trade, global governance and making growth more inclusive. It's the start of a global conversation on how to confront these issues which will continue in Singapore in early November, when around 400 top business leaders and thinkers from across the globe will gather in Singapore for the first New Economy Forum.

John Normand, JP Morgan Head of Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy, says there are pockets of opportunity in emerging markets. George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Founder & Chairman, discusses the U.S.-Saudi Arabia relationship. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says much of the Fed's power comes from the perception of its independence. Craig Gordon, Bloomberg Washington Bureau Chief, joins us on breaking news. And Jon Lieber, PWC National Tax Services Principal, analyzes the possibility of a middle class tax cut. 

Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, sees no exuberance or optimism in equity markets. Frank Newport, Gallup Poll Editor-In-Chief, discusses the challenges of polling election turnout. Sanam Vakil, Chatham House Senior Consulting Research Fellow in the Middle East & North Africa Program, says Saudi Arabia wants to preserve their relationship with the U.S. at all costs. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, hops in the studio to analyze the market losses this morning. 

Kate Moore, BlackRock Investment Institute Chief Equity Strategist, defends her market optimism. John Hudak, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow in Governance Studies, predicts President Trump will "absolutely not" pass new tax legislation by the midterms. Matt Maley, MillerTabak and Co., LLC Managing Director & Equity Strategist, advises to go to cash. Steven Cook, CFR Senior Fellow For Middle East And Africa Studies, says Khashoggi's story will shake the Saudi royal family. 

Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, talks the future of Fox, Disney, Google and Youtube. Florian Hense, Berenberg European Economist, says it is likely that Italy will be downgraded a notch. Therese Raphael, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Trump administration's proposal for a free-trade deal with the U.K. is music to the ears of Brexiteers. Dana Peterson, Citigroup Economist, discusses the uneven wage growth in the U.S.

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, sees no reason for the Fed to stop hiking right now. Martin Indyk, CFR Distinguished Fellow & Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, says every message has to be carefully controlled in a crisis, including the one with Saudi Arabia. Joel Levington, Bloomberg Intelligence Credit & Strategy Analyst, expects Uber bonds to have junk ratings. Wolfgang Munchau, Eurointelligence President, is optimistic about a Brexit deal in December. 

Jack Lew, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, thinks economic sanctions are a powerful tool to influence countries to change their policies. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor, says the U.S. is abusing its privileges. Alison Williams, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst of U.S. Banks, talks IPO growth. Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, is worried about the over-promise of liquidity in banks. 

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Equity Research Managing Director, says the universal bank model is outperforming the regional bank model. John Sfakianakis, Gulf Research Center Foundation Economics Research Director, thinks Khashoggi's disappearance has been a blow to Saudi Arabia's image-making. Vivian Nereim, Bloomberg Reporter, reports from Riyadh on the beginning of an internal probe in Saudi Arabia. Gary Gensler, Former CFTC Chairman, defends quarterly earnings reporting arguing that the public has the right to know about companies on a regular basis.

David Pearl, Epoch Investment Partners Co-Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager, says JP Morgan has a clear strategy which includes a large return of capital. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Senior Political Strategist, thinks that celebrity endorsements do not have an impact on elections results. Gustavo Rangel, ING Chief LatAm Economist, explains that big Latin American countries are not vulnerable to FX volatility. Mitch Roschelle, PwC Partner, says the U.S. is undersupplied with new housing stock. 

Geoffrey Yu, UBS Wealth Management Head of UK Investment Office, is not worried about tail risks. Krishna Memani, OppenheimerFunds CIO & Head of Fixed Income, thinks credit is the strongest place in the markets right now. Dana Peterson, Citigroup Global Markets Director and Economist, says an independent Fed is the best Fed. And Justin Leverenz, Oppenheimer Funds Director of EM Equities, highlights the focus on the sustainability of Tencent. 

Sebastian Mallaby, CFR Senior Fellow for International Economics, says the dollar's centrality in the global system has gone up since 2008. Claus Vistesen, Pantheon MacroEconomics Chief Eurozone Economist, thinks the Italian bond market is mispriced. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities Managing Director & U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research, prefers that banks have less revenues today but sustainable growth. Amanda Sloat, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, thinks people are becoming increasingly more pessimistic towards Brexit.