Bloomberg Surveillance

Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, says wage growth is much more likely to head North than South. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence U.S. Rates Strategist, discusses the yield curve flattening. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners Head of Research, brings us an update on oil markets. Emma Ross Thomas, Bloomberg Brexit Editor, says BOE Governor Mark Carney is no stranger to criticism. 

Richard Clarida, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, says the U.S. Economy is in good shape right now. Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics & Policy Correspondent, says the market is pricing in a much lower path for rate hikes for the Fed in 2019. Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, Chatham House Geoeconomics Fellow for U.S. & the Americas, says it is not clear what the Trump administration wants to achieve with China. Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, highlights the divergent outlook of monetary policy for the PBOC and the Fed. Former Senator Alan Simpson, (R) Wyoming, remembers President George H.W. Bush. 

Jonathan Fenby, TSLombard Chairman, says the trade war has come at an inconvenient time for Xi Jinping. Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, updates us on the USMCA signing in Buenos Aires. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives Founder & President, does not expect the G-20 meetings to resolve trade issues. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President & Founder, says a framework agreement between Xi and Trump would be a huge win. And Garrett Graff, Author of "Threat Matrix", offers an inside look into political drama in Washington. 

Thu Lan Nguyen, Commerzbank FX Strategist, and Daniel Morris, BNP Paribas Asset Management Senior Investment Strategist, discuss the market impact of various Brexit outcomes. Jean-Claude Trichet, Former ECB President, says the 2008 crisis put central banks close to a financial stability mandate. Don Gimbel, Geneva Advisors Portfolio Manager, thinks China and the U.S. may reach an agreement at the G-20 summit. Leon Cooperman, Omega Advisors Chairman & CEO, discusses the algorithms that bring volatility to the markets. Eric Garcetti, Los Angeles Mayor, says mayors are the political first responders to natural disasters.

Bloomberg Surveillance is live from the Bloomberg link for the Year Ahead Summit. Miranda Carr, Haitong International China Macro Strategist, says the Chinese government will have to take strong measures to avoid volatility in the yuan. Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist & Portfolio Manager, expects a fiscal cliff in 2020. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, discusses the humility of Former Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, the guest on his show "Peer to Peer Conversations". Luca Solca, Exane BNP Paribas Head of Luxury Goods Research, says that the Chinese consumer represents a third of the luxury market. Nick Colas, DataTrek Research Co-Founder, says bitcoin is a cloudy market. 

Arlene Foster, U.K. Democratic Unionist Party Leader, tells us why her party doesn't support May's Brexit deal. Kevin Tynan, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Automotive Analyst, says GM is going through this "painful transition" in order to be relevant in the future. Edward Alden, CFR Senior Fellow and Author of "Failure To Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind In The Global Economy", says China is a bigger market for GM than the U.S. Andrew Wood, Chatham House Associate Fellow for their Russia and Eurasia Programme, does not think there will be new sanctions on Russia. 

Nicky Morgan, U.K. Member of Parliament & Chair of Treasury Select Committee, and Rupert Harrison, BlackRock Multi-Asset Strategies Portfolio Manager, talk the challenges of getting the Brexit deal through Parliament. James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist & Head of Global Fixed Income & Economic Research, says returns aren't great but the unemployment rate is going nowhere. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses Cyber Monday for a generation that needs "instagramable moments." Abhishek Deshpande, Head of JP Morgan's Global Oil Market Research & Strategy Team, thinks oil's falling prices are partly policy led. 

Steve Wieting, Citigroup Global Chief Investment Strategist, doesn't think 2019 marks a down year for the U.S. or the rest of the world. John Levy, John B. Levy & Company Founder, says we are going from necessity shopping to experience shopping. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says oil prices will give a boost to consumer spending in the holiday season. Christyan Malek, J.P. Morgan Head of EMEA Oil & Gas Research, talks the Russian break even and the Saudi break even oil prices. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Founder, says stores are in a good inventory position for holidays sales. 

Brian Levitt, Oppenheimer Funds Senior Investment Strategist, says the Phillips curve is as flat as the table he is sitting at. Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, highlights the need to fix trade issues. Mike Feroli, JPMorgan Chief Economist, thinks the Fed will continue to hike every quarter next year. Brian Kelly, The Points Guy, says the credit card market is living the biggest boom we have ever seen. 

George Bory, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Credit Strategy, says the march back towards cash is well underway. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Head of Public Policy, thinks the chances of a big infrastructure package are higher than markets seem to think. Mark Gilbert, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says we are nearing a bear market. Wolfgang Munchau, Eurointelligence Director, thinks people are overestimating the power of Germany to influence Euro states. 

Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, says the Fed must balance the signals coming from the global and domestic economy. Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Finance Professor, thinks Salvini wants the confrontation with the EU for political reasons. Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, BlackRock Investment Institute Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, notes it's the first time in a while that there's uncertainty about the Fed's next move. Budd Bugatch, Raymond James Research Managing Director, provides an update on Home Depot and Walmart. 

Stephen Roach, Yale University Professor, says there might be some type of standstill agreement between China and the U.S. in the Buenos Aires meeting. Antony Phillipson, British Consul General to New York, highlights the need to deliver some certainty on Brexit. Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, will discuss the record number of women in Congress during her next show. Stephanie Wissink, Jefferies Managing Director & Consumer Research Analyst, says the baton has shifted from baby boomers to millennials being the population driver for consumer goods. 

Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy & Senior Currency Analyst, says the prospects of a hard Brexit look very tangible today. Neil Callanan, Bloomberg's London Bureau Chief, thinks Theresa May will struggle in a leadership contest. Danny Blanchflower, Darmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, thinks the current Brexit deal will collapse. And John Carreyou, Author of "Bad Blood", details the writing process for his book on Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos. 

Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Global Head of Content & G10 FX Strategy, says confidence in Draghi is diminishing. David Herro, Harris Associates CIO of International Equities, thinks European stocks are especially undervalued today. Toby Moskovitz, Heritage Equity Partners President & Founder, proposes that Amazon creates a requirement for local hiring and job training. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Founder, says product innovation contributes Macy's strong earnings. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, previews his interview with Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan. 

Kim Wallace, Eurasia Group Managing Director of U.S., thinks people are growing comfortable with the notion of socializing health care in America. Nancy Ognanovich, Congressional Leadership Reporter For Bloomberg Government, says funding the government will be the Congress priority. Greg Boutle, BNP Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy, expects a slowdown in nominal GDP next year. Bill Smead, Smead Capital Management CEO & CIO, describes how Seattle has changed as Amazon has grown. 

Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, says of all the things he worries about, the Fed is not on that list. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners Head of Research, talks the supply and demand picture for crude oil. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) lays out his plans for his last few months as House Majority Whip. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest-Rates Strategy, says you don't have to take on a ton of treasury risk to get big returns. Tyler Brule, Monocle Editor-In-Chief, takes a close look at soft power. 

Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist & Managing Director, thinks the U.S. tariffs are already having an impact on China. Stewart Patrick, CFR Senior Fellow & Director of the International Institutions and Global Governance Program, joins us to discuss the Armistice Day Centennial. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, thinks Powell has been a great communicator but his one misstep was when he said, "We are far from neutral." Michael Beschloss, Presidential Historian & Author of "Presidents Of War", expects a Battle Royale within the Democratic Party in the next two years. 

Stephanie Baker, Bloomberg News Senior Writer, discusses the Russian investigation in the wake of Sessions' resignation. William Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, expects one or two rate hikes from the Fed next year. James Albertine, Consumer Edge Senior Auto Analyst, says Robyn Denholm would not have been his first choice for Tesla Chair. Bill Gavin, Former FBI Assistant Director, reacts to the California shooting. David Laufman, Government Investigations Lawyer & Former U.S. Department of Justice Senior National Security Official, revisits Sessions' recusal from the Russia investigation.  

Bloomberg Surveillance brings you a Midterms Special. Emily Ekins, Cato Institute Research Fellow & Director of Polling, says millennials were energized to vote in these midterms. Marc Lotter, Former Press Secretary for VP Mike Pence & Trump 2020 Advisory Board Member, shares his key takeaways from the Florida and Ohio races. Lawrence Summers, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary & Former National Economic Council Director, says fiscal responsibility is not the concern right now. Robby Mook, Hillary Clinton's 2016 Campaign Manager, thinks Democrats need to focus on delivering results to those who elected them. Trent Lott, Former Senate Majority Leader, says getting things done in a divided government takes communication and leadership. Stephen Moore, Heritage Foundation & "Trumponomics" Co-Author, thinks the booming economy saved Senate seats for Republicans. And Frank Keating, Former Governor of Oklahoma, says he's not happy with what is going on at the U.S.-Mexico border. 

Kathy Fisher, Bernstein Head of Wealth & Investment Strategies, says gridlock would be the best outcome for the markets. Doug Heye, Deputy Chief of Staff to Eric Cantor & Republican Strategist, guides us through two races in Iowa. Joe Lieberman, United Against a Nuclear Iran Chairman and Former Senator (D-CT), thinks Congress has let down the people. Austan Goolsbee, Fmr. White House Economic Adviser to President Obama, is hoping voters become increasingly skeptical of what they see on social media during elections.