Bloomberg Surveillance

Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, says the Chinese economy is much weaker than the official headlines show. Walter Piecyk, BTIG Telecom, Wireless and Communication Equipment Analyst, says Apple's lowering of revenue estimates is a major sign of economic issues in China. Robert Kaplan, Federal Reserve of Dallas President, thinks the Fed should not take any further action on interest rates. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, argues that the U.S. has to remain engaged in the Pacific. Asthika Goonerwardene, Bloomberg Intelligence Biotech & Pharma Analyst, says Bristol's bid for Celgene is a financial transaction to buy cash flows. 

Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist & Portfolio Manager, believes there is a strong case for the Fed to pause. Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, expects a deeper deterioration of the Chinese economy before the stimulus comes through. Dana Peterson, Citigroup Economist, highlights the importance of the January Fed meeting. Oscar Decotelli, DXA Investments CEO, says the Brazilian elite seem to be positive about the country's new President Jair Bolsonaro. 

Brett Ryan, Deutsche Bank Senior Economist, expects 3 rate hikes and 2.4% economic growth next year. Bob Profusek, Jones Day Global Chair of M&A, says M&A are driven by technology and globalization not by credit markets. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Research Strategy & Operations Head, says the countries in the CPTPP will see roughly 99% of tariffs among them eliminated. Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors CIO & Founding Partner, says emerging markets are "downright cheap." 

Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Chief Economist, says the government shutdown isn't a huge story for the U.S. economy. John Sfakianakis, Gulf Research Center Foundation Director of Economics Research, doesn't think Saudi Arabia sees oil as a strategic weapon. Martin Indyk, CFR Distinguished Fellow & Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, talks the impact of the U.S. pullout from Syria on the "cold war" between Iran and Israel. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy CEO & Founder, talks the risk of Amazon achieving the status of "commerce king." 

Don Rissmiller, Strategas Research Partners, thinks the Fed should increase clarity on housing and inflation expectations. Kona Haque, ED&F MAN Head of Commodities Research, says the trade story will drive commodities' sentiment in 2019. Marvin Barth, Barclays Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Research, says President Trump has realized it is a mistake to undermine people's confidence in institutions. Mark McCormick, TD Securities Head of FX Strategy North America, thinks reserve currencies will strengthen again next year.

Edward Stringham, President of the American Institute for Economic Research, doesn't buy that the Fed is responsible for all the problems of the economy. Ivan Feinseth, Tigress Financial CIO, says now is the time to take advantage of the post-Christmas sale on Wall Street. Brian Egger, Bloomberg Senior Gaming & Lodging Analyst, thinks we are only in the early innings of the sports betting legalization process. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, says the combination of online and brick-and-mortar is powerful for retailers.

Bob Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice-Chair, describes the demographic challenges China is facing. Margaret Talev, Bloomberg's White House Correspondent, zooms in on the question of how the shutdown will impact the economy. Mark Spindel, "The Myth of Independence: How Congress Governs the Federal Reserve" Author, says markets have listened to President Trump on his criticisms of the Fed. Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical Strategy, says investors are selling what they can and not what they want.

Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs Advisory Director & Senior Investment Strategist, thinks the risk tolerance of investors has changed. Bill Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says the Fed still has to define what they mean by "asymmetry." John Hudak, Brookings Governance Studies Senior Fellow, says General Mattis' resignation is connected to the "unstable behavior" and "erratic decision-making" of Trump. Stephen Gallo, BMO Capital Markets Head of European FX Strategy, expects the dollar to be stronger the first half of 2019. 

Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth University Professor, says either the market is wrong or the Fed is wrong. Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds CIO of Growth Equities, thinks tightening eight times in the course of two years is too rapid a move. Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, says there is a divorce between data from the real economy and data from financial markets. Narayana Kocherlakota, Former Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President, says we should get rid of the FOMC Dot Plot.

Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, says bond markets are adjusting to slower growth in developed economies next year. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Chief Oil Analyst, says oil demand concerns stem from the U.S. and China trade war. Randy Kroszner, Former Fed Governor, says the Fed cannot be a slave to the market. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments Chief Global Strategist, sees a 55% probability of impeachment for Trump.

Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Chief Market Strategist, says the justification to continue rising rates has evaporated. Jim O'Neill, Chatham House Chair and Goldman Sachs Former Chief Economist, says changing the manager will not solve the dilemmas of Manchester United. Terry Haines, Evercore ISI Senior Political Strategist & Head of Political Analysis, says a government shutdown would only affect 25% of federal funding. Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, says better credit conditions in China haven't translated into liquidity. 

Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor and Peter G. Peterson Chair, discusses the latest edition of Foreign Affairs. Andrea Felsted, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, talks Brexit fears for U.K. retailers. Paul Romer, 2018 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences Co-Recipient, says people have less confidence in science than they had 20 years ago. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, is worried about the lack of cooperation between global superpowers. 

Kate Moore, BlackRock Investment Institute Chief Equity Strategist, discusses the implications of a slower growth rate next year. David Sowerby, Ancora Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, says in the long term, cash is trash. Dean Curnutt, Macro Risk Advisors CEO & Founder, talks the financialization of the VIX from an index to a trading instrument. Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, thinks consumer data do not support the general view of a recession in 2019 or 2020. 

Chi Onwurah, Labour MP & Shadow Minister of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, thinks the fundamental fractures in British Parliament can't be solved in two weeks. Eoin Drea, Martens Centre for European Studies Senior Research Officer, defines the Irish border as a symbol of peace and reconciliation. John Mills, JML Founder and Chairman, says the confidence vote was a bit of a distraction. Steven Major, HSBC Bank Global Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us to react to the ECB's rate decision. 

Nigel Huddleston, Conservative Member of Parliament for Mid Worcestershire, says Theresa May would be in a very strong position if she won the vote. Guy Johnson, Bloomberg Anchor, and Erik Nielsen, Unicredit Group Chief Economist, join us for a Brexit update. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest-Rates Strategy, advises to be opportunistic in every asset class in 2019. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics President, thinks sterling relief is related to anti-Corbyn sentiment. 

Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Securities Managing Director & Chief International Strategist, says market participants seem to expect volatility to be sticky for a while. Luke Kawa, Bloomberg Cross-Asset Reporter, says markets are pricing in some kind of inflection point for the Fed over the next two years. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, defines the current situation of the U.K. as one of "chaos" and "rage". Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives Founder, explains that technology is a deflationary force. Baroness Helena Kennedy, House of Lords Member, remarks that the Irish border question was not in the mind of the voters when the Brexit referendum took place. 

Neil Shearing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist, says the key question now is whether Theresa May can go back to Brussels to negotiate changes. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex Strategist & Managing Partner, says there will be downward pressure in the rupee until the Indian central bank's independence is reestablished. Gary Shilling, A. Gary Shilling & Co. President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, thinks we are in a very deflationary world. Cheryl Bolen, Bloomberg Government’s White House Reporter, discusses the responsibilities of the next White House Chief of Staff. 

Alan Krueger, Princeton University Professor of Economics, says markets are reacting to the end of the sugar high. James Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, thinks the Fed is more cautious as we near neutral. Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Chief Market Strategist, says the Fed should be focused on the nominal economy. Margaret Brennan, CBS Face the Nation Host, discusses who may be the next candidate for White House Chief of Staff. 

Tony Blair, Former U.K. Prime Minister, joins Francine Lacqua and Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance TV to discuss Brexit. Tim Culpan, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says cybersecurity has played a role in Huawei's CFO's arrest. David Rubenstein, The Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chairman, reflects on the global admiration for former President George H.W. Bush. Tina Davis, Bloomberg Energy & Commodities Americas, joins us to wrap headlines from the OPEC+ meetings. 

Bloomberg Surveillance remember former President George H.W. Bush in today's episode. Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Former Office of Policy Planning Associate Director for George H.W. Bush, discusses the former President's economic policies. Ron Bonjean, The Bonjean Company Founder, discusses the future of the Republican party. Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Europe, says George H.W. Bush was one of the biggest supporters of NATO in history. Bill Hoagland, Bipartisan Policy Center Senior Vice President, says the former President was pragmatic about deficits.