Bhtv: Science Faction (fast)

Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is so unlikely ... Taiwan’s terrain: A defender’s dream, an invader’s nightmare ... Why Taipei might be the hardest city in the world to conquer ... Dan: China would need nearly 5 million soldiers to have a chance ... The 2027 invasion theory—and why it doesn’t hold up ... Is China trying to bankrupt the US military? ... A cheaper, smarter way to defend Taiwan ... Submarines: A deterrent with a message ... Comparing a Taiwan invasion to D-Day ... China's long game ... Why a blockade might be worse than an invasion ...

A brief message from Bob ... Why many intelligent people think we’re living in a simulation ... The philosophical argument that you’re probably not real ... How cosmic rays might (and might not) reveal that reality is fake ... Preston’s dire warning against trying to determine if we’re in a simulation ... Is the simulation hypothesis non-falsifiable? ... Is “the simulation” just religion for atheists? ...

A brief message from Bob ... What Lee means when he says "time is fundamental" ... Understanding the universe as a network ... A (very) tentative theory of consciousness ... Did the laws of physics evolve? ... Is the universe fine-tuned for the emergence of life? ... Applying Lee's theories of time to everyday life ...

Why Neysun brings American students and scholars to China ... Visiting China after Covid ... Balancing US and Chinese red lines ... When Neysun's students pushed Chinese officials on human rights ... Do US students fear career risks for going to China? ... Cultivating cognitive empathy ... China's obsession with US politics ... Trump's surprisingly consistent approach to Beijing ... Are Chinese students really spies? ... Is China studies becoming the next Kremlinology? ... How Neysun navigates US fears about exchange with China ...

A brief message from Bob ... Greg's new book, The Gutfeld Monologues ... How going to Berkeley pushed Greg toward conservatism ... Trumpism creates strange ideological bedfellows ... Bob offers a magic solution to the freedom vs. security dilemma ... Was Obama right to avoid the phrase "Islamic radicalism"? ... Trump's savvy use of identity politics ... The secret ingredient to Greg's meditation practice ...

A brief message from Bob ... Why consciousness is so weird ... Is consciousness like your brain’s shadow? ... If David was a zombie, would anyone know? ... Bob’s wacky theory about consciousness ... Is consciousness what collapses the quantum wave function? ... Can there be a true science of consciousness? ...

Are US-Iran talks dead? ... Do normal Iranians care about the nuclear program? ... Understanding Iran’s enrichment red line ... Assessing the damage to Iran's nuclear facilities ... Iran's decision to kick out inspectors ... Could Iran build a bomb in secret? ... Trump's "desultory" approach to talks with Iran ... Alan's experience negotiating with the Iranians ... How Obama managed to get a deal ... Iran's focus on projecting strength ... Does Iran really want a bomb? ... Iran's dim view of international law ...

A brief message from Bob ... John’s upcoming book, How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy ... Is the US to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? ... Is Putin less rational than John assumes? ... Why John is a Russia dove and a China hawk ... Does China pose a threat to freedom around the world? ... Why John thinks China’s rise threatens American security ... Has globalization made great-power peace possible? ... Should the US defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion? ...

A brief message from Bob ... Why neocons like enemies ... How to use power deftly ... Is a nuclear Iran really all that scary? ... Bob's arms-control dreams dashed again ... China problem solved in under three minute ... Some cheerful thoughts about Hamas ...

Barry’s new novel, ‘The System’ ... CIA lessons & seeing like a Martian ... Fiction, empathy, and geopolitics ... No cartoon villains ... How power really works in DC ... Feinstein vs. Brennan: the 'sit down' ... Why we excuse ourselves ... Jobs, jets & hidden threats ... The problem with the House ... Valeria’s dilemma: bend or break ... How power corrupts ... Humiliation and geopolitics ...

Teaser ... The dueling Sam Altman biographies ... Who is the real Sam Altman? ... OpenAI’s origin—did Sam scam Elon? ... Why the OpenAI board coup failed ... Good and bad critiques of OpenAI ... Heading to Overtime ...

Courtney’s and Alex’s Always at War podcast ... Have restrainers given up on Trump? ... The legacies of Hamilton Jordan ... Courtney: Money drives war ... Palantir cashes in ... Alex: Blame American exceptionalism first ... Trump’s biggest Jan 6 transgression ... Is the Republic at stake? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Headlines ... - Washington ... - Silicon Valley ... - China ... - Africa ... - Europe ... Bob joins to discuss the Israel-Iran war ... Has Trump had a change of heart? ... The Pandora's Box of a US attack ... Connor makes the pro-bombing-Iran argument ... Bob: A diplomatic solution would have been 'trivially easy' ... Trump's missed opportunity for a win ... Where Israeli and American interests diverge ... Israel’s risky calculus: Escalation over negotiation ... Why won't Trump use his leverage to rein in Israel? ...

Teaser ... The time Alex blocked everyone's view of Jennifer Aniston ... How Alex acquired the Bibi interrogation tapes ... What the Bibi Files suggest about the Gaza war ... Bibi's bribes ... Bibi-Trump parallels ... Barriers to getting the movie distributed (and where to watch it) ... Heading to Overtime (and Bob’s and Alex's unfinished film) ...

Headlines ... - Israel-Iran ... - Sanctions ... - NATO ... - Revolving doors ... - US-China trade war ... How China views the Israel-Iran crisis ... Why the Iran attacks undermine US-China talks ... How the US and China reached the brink of all-out trade war ... China's not-so-secret weapon in trade talks ... Why China won't back down ... Trump vs. his advisers ... Structural obstacles to US-China cooperation ... The zero-sum trap: Can both sides grow? ...

The Trump-Musk blowup, reconciliation, and fallout ... Trump vs Elon: a psycho-analysis ... Where do Trump and Elon go from here? ... Remembering Brian Wilson and Sly Stone ... Will AI turn us all into narcissists? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Steven’s years at OpenAI ... An insider's view of the AI boom ... The real meaning of “Feel the AGI” ... AI safety’s rationalist kernel ... What’s really driving the AI arms race(s)? ... Is stifling China’s AI development smart? ... Dario Amodei’s geopolitical naivete ... Heading to Overtime ...

Headlines ... Jennifer: Why Trump should walk away from Ukraine ... Can Ukraine survive without US support? ... Why a comprehensive peace deal is unlikely ... The perils of US mediation ... Are the peace talks making progress? ... How grinding wars end ... Understanding Russia's battlefield advantage ... Ukraine's shrinking army ... Striking Russian bombers: morale boost vs. nuclear risk ...

A sublime Nonzero-TAC crossover event ... Some bad MSM reporting on US-Iran negotiations ... Would Kamala have been better than Trump on Gaza? ... Is a two-state solution conceivable? ... Buchananite conservatives on China ... China, AI, and Covid-19 ... Heading to Overtime ...

The scope of Trump's assault on Harvard ... What Trump demanded from Harvard ... What makes certain universities vulnerable ... Ideology and “viewpoint diversity” at Harvard ... Trump’s attacks on media and cultural institutions ... The costs of lost research ... How woke was Harvard? ... Antisemitism and philosemitism at Harvard ... Steve's new FP piece on the importance of global rules (Heading to Overtime) ...