Early Edition with Kate Hawkesby

Special votes, as I'm sure you know, are usually good for the left and National has said it expects to lose one or two seats from the election night count.  If it was two, and even if the overhang goes, the maths is undeniable. It's a 120 seat Parliament, but that one-seat majority for the Nats and ACT is gone.  And we all know what that means.  I think Winston's petulant display in Wellington right after the election told us a lot about the way the new coalition is being drawn together.  My read of it, is that Mr Peters had been well and truly put in his place over the weekend.  I suspect the rules of engagement were spelled out very clearly, and he knows he's not going to be wearing the pants in any future relationship.  Not to start with, anyway.  The other thing to bear in mind, and unless you're actually doing the counting there's no way of telling, is whether the specials will favour the left as much as some people think.  There's a school of thought that says people outside the country, and in particul

The Australian woman who cooked and served a lunch that killed three will appear in court today.  Erin Patterson faces three murder charges and five attempted murder charges.   Her former in-laws Gail and Don Patterson as well as Gail's sister Heather all died from suspected toxic mushroom poisoning in July, and Gail's husband Ian was hospitalised.   Three other charges relate to incidents in 2021 and 2022, as police allege a 48-year-old man became ill after meals.   Australian correspondent Lesley Yeomans told Tim Dower that Police spent yesterday searching her home.   She says they also sent in technology detector dogs, trained to hunt down things like SIM cards, phones, and USB sticks.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The future shape of our next government all comes out today.   While the preliminary votes for the election were all counted up, the results of the around 570 thousand left over special votes will be released at two this afternoon.   It will likely decide whether National and ACT will need New Zealand First to get into power.   Political Editor Jason Walls told Tim Dower that the majority of special votes do tend to favour the left.  He says people like John Key and Chris Bishop both expect to see National lose at least one seat today.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A nutritionist would love to see confectionary moved away from the checkouts.  Countdown's aiming to make healthier choices easier for customers, and combat checkout 'pester power'.  The supermarket chain —soon to be Woolworths— has committed to 80% of foods at checkouts carrying a Health Star Rating of 3.5 or more.  It's also moving "kids confectionary" elsewhere.  Nutritionist Nikki Hart told Kate Hawkesby that it’s got to be better than the current trend.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Rafah crossing from Gaza to Egypt has opened for the first time since Israel's siege began more than three weeks ago.  Palestinian officials say 335 foreign passport holders and 76 injured Gazans have been able to leave so far.  It's thought 88 injured Palestinians and around 500 foreign nationals will be allowed out in the first phase.  US Correspondent, Mitch McCann, told Kate Hawkesby that the exits are due to a deal brokered by Qatar between Israel, Hamas, and Egypt, coordinating with the US.  He said that US passport holders are not expected to be among the first nationals to be released.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So tomorrow we finally —after such a ridiculously long wait— get the final vote count. Specials will be done, duplicates checked, ballots finalized, we will know where we’re at, and more importantly, what form the new government might take. The fact we’ve had three weeks in limbo is completely ludicrous and at least the incoming PM has acknowledged that and claims he’ll do something about changing it. Which as far as I understand involves changing the law and the way the electoral commission operates, and I hope they do that. The electoral commission did not cover itself in glory: botching some people’s booth experiences by not having enough forms, closing early or opening late, not getting easy vote packs out in good enough time for early voting, and generally operating like it’s 1953. Even Luxon said that three weeks is too long, that they should be working 24/7 to count votes. He also reckons they should do a daily release of votes counted and take over local government elections so they’re up to speed a y

It’s being predicted that the household budgets for mortgage holders will be squeezed further in 2024.  Those on extremely low interest rates in 2019 are turning over to new rates now.  A Reserve Bank report says the average household will spend about 18% of their income on interest payments alone by mid-next year.  ANZ economist, Henry Russell, told Kate Hawkesby that it's not unexpected, and the Reserve Bank needs to see demand in the economy slow to get on top of inflation.  He says there's still many households with 2% or 3% interest rates who'll face a tough adjustment when they rollover to six or seven percent.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More calls for Oranga Tamariki to be shaken up following new details about a toddler that was killed in Lower Hutt.   A homicide investigation has been launched into the death of almost two-year-old Ruthless-Empire Wall. Newstalk ZB understands his uncle contacted Oranga Tamariki wanting the child to be uplifted. It comes after it was recently revealed 57 children have died since the agency was established.  Child Matters Chief Executive Jane Searle told Kate Hawkesby that it reflects the need for change.  She says they've known for a long time Oranga Tamariki's not fit for purpose, with this being just another example.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A health commentator has given his thoughts on how the next Government should tackle problems in our hospitals.  Te Whatu Ora metrics show the national rate of preventable hospital admissions for 0–4-year-olds has increased by 35% in the last year.  It also shows the number of patients waiting more than four months to see a specialist has increased by 46% over the same period.   Ian Powell told Kate Hawkesby that there's one change the new Government shouldn't make, and that's restructure the whole system again.  He says it sounds as though the new government is not going to do that, which is a plus.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well, three days on from our loss at the Rugby World Cup and we’re still not over it... clearly.  It’s still front-page news, the dissertations and opinions continue, disputes over how it was reffed, anger over the TMO and officiating of the game continue. But let’s face the hard facts: the best team won on the day.   Painful as it is, relitigating red cards versus yellow ones as we might, hating the TMO as we all do... it doesn’t change the facts. The best team won on the day.  We couldn’t get our act together in a sloppy first half, we couldn’t pull it off in the second, we didn’t win.   Sad but true.   Death threats to Wayne Barnes and all the other nonsense which has come out of the loss is futile and detracts from the reality. Which is that beyond the nitpicking over all the minutiae of that one game, a broader conversation needs to be had around what’s happening to rugby.   The Herald’s Luke Kirkness said, “Rugby union is facing a looming crisis. The game is losing its appeal with many turning to altern

Changes have already been made to adventure tourism safety as the Whakaari White Island trial ends. The island's owner, Whakaari Management Limited, has been found guilty on one health and safety charge brought by WorkSafe.   It failed to ensure adequate risk assessments ahead of the 2019 tragedy that killed 22 people. Former Tourism Industry Aotearoa CEO Chris Roberts told Kate Hawkesby that there was concern that WorkSafe was the prosecutor.  He says it was clear there were failings in WorkSafe's oversight, but they weren't prosecuted, they were the prosecutor.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's widely anticipated that New Zealand's unemployment figures will rise today.  Stats NZ numbers for the three months to September will be released later this morning.  Infometrics Principal Economist, Brad Olsen, told Kate Hawkesby that he predicts it will lift from 3.6 to 3.9%.  He says realistically, the market is still tight, with anything below 4% unusual for New Zealand.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Airbnb could be damaging the value of some neighbourhood homes.  Researchers using Auckland census data have identified links between more Airbnbs in communities and higher crime-rates.  It highlights how Airbnb's replace long-term owner occupiers with short term occupants, which can erode the anti-crime capability of the community.  That leads to lower house prices.  Auckland University Associate Property Professor, Edward Yiu, told Kate Hawkesby that this is especially apparent with apartment-type housing.  He said in the past a gate with a code could be installed, but because strangers can enter for their Airbnb, it’s raised security concerns.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s Halloween tonight, so stand by for trick or treaters coming to a doorbell near you.  Although weather in many parts of the country may keep little trick or treaters at bay, it probably won’t deter teenagers. We’ve had a mixed run of approaches to Halloween over the years. When the kids were really little, they would find some of the costumes frightening and we wondered the merits of tiny children roaming the streets at what should be bath and bedtime, to ask for lollies from strangers. It didn’t feel right so we said no.  Mean parents.   Later on, as they got a bit older and more savvy that this could involve a whole bunch of stuff usually off limits - lollies, late nights, roaming the streets in costume with mates... they persuaded us the other way. But we contained it. Co-ordinated with neighbours, organised a small early trick or treat session, with neighbours knowing in advance and happy to participate, and with rules around how much sugar could really be consumed. Spoiler alert - not much.   Mean pa

Supie customers may be left out of pocket.   The online grocer's entered voluntary administration with PwC, owing some $3 million after launching two years ago.   It promised to bring competition to the market, and subscriptions to the service cost an annual fee of $99.   Consumer New Zealand CEO Jon Duffy told Kate Hawkesby that they don’t know all the reasons that lead to Supie going into voluntary administration, so they can’t say the duopoly is the one to blame.  He said that they do know that the market is really difficult to enter, and they’re looking to lower those barriers of entry.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A major bank has increased its test rate, which is the rate at which it checks that borrowers can afford a loan.   ANZ has upped it to 9.1%.   That's despite home loan rates sitting around 7% for a two-year fix.    Key Mortgages mortgage broker Jeremy Andrews told Kate Hawkesby that it's the first bank to make such a move in decades.   He says interest rates have been going up since Covid came along, so test rates have too.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

India stayed perfect and England remained awful as Mohammed Shami bowled a stunning opening spell to give the hosts a 100-run win at the Cricket World Cup. Shami and Jasprit Bumrah shared an initial five wickets in a fiery exhibition of pace and seam movement in a six-over spell in the first powerplay and blew away the English top-order. That came after India had been put into bat and scored only 229-9 in 50 overs on a tough pitch with Rohit Sharma contributing 87 runs off 101 balls. The total proved more than enough for India to defend. Shami finished with 4-22 in seven overs, while Bumrah returned 3-32 in 6.5 overs, as England suffered yet another batting collapse, crashing to a fifth defeat in six games. Defending champion England were left languishing in 10th spot after a miserable outing in Lucknow against Indian pace and spin – all out for 129 runs in just 34.5 overs. India continues to fly high as the only unbeaten team in the tournament. The hosts top the standings with 12 points from six games, two p

American hockey player Adam Johnson, who appeared in 13 NHL games with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2019 and 2020, has died after his neck was cut by a skate blade during a game in England on Saturday, his team said. He was 29. Johnson was playing for the Nottingham Panthers in a Challenge Cup game against the Sheffield Steelers when he suffered the skate cut during the second period of the Elite Ice Hockey League game at Sheffield’s Utilita Arena. Johnson’s injury was so horrific it forced the game to be abandoned and left traumatised fans in tears. “The Nottingham Panthers are truly devastated to announce that Adam Johnson has tragically passed away following a freak accident at the game in Sheffield last night,” the team said on Sunday. “The Panthers would like to send our thoughts and condolences to Adam’s family, his partner and all his friends at this extremely difficult time. Everyone at the club including players, staff, management and ownership are heartbroken at the news of Adam’s passing.” His moth

There’s not a lot to say about that game that hasn’t already been said — however it will be a game that gets digested for a long time yet. Mainly over the place of TMO in rugby and how slowed down the game is these days. It’s almost like they’re not allowed to play it anymore. It must make players incredibly nervous when every move is questioned, yellow carded, TMO’d and often red carded. It’s too much. Yes there’s safety and rules to go by, but there’s also a game to be played. When you slow it down that much and spend too many valuable minutes analysing the play, staring at replays, talking to players on the field and generally making it too technical, then you also lose people’s interest. And they wonder why people are switching off the game. I’m sad for Fozzy, I really wanted him to get a triumphant send off and a fairytale ending. A big redemption and a successful World Cup win to prove the naysayers wrong. Having said that, yes of course they did well to get to the final — I know it seems weird saying t

Israel says its next stage of war with Hamas has begun as it expands ground operations in Gaza. Telephone and internet communications in Gaza have been partially restored after a more than day-long blackout, which badly impacted rescue operations. The UN has warned civil order in Gaza is deteriorating. Otago University international relations professor Robert Patman told Kate Hawkesby two-thirds of the UN supported calls for a humanitarian "pause" in Gaza. “I don’t think Netanyahu’s government can make the claim now that the world is fully supporting Israel’s response.” LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.