Early Edition with Kate Hawkesby

Polls are great. I love ‘em and I love the occasional surprise we get from them.  They're really useful in providing those snapshots of public opinion at any given moment.  And you'll be aware the political parties use them extensively, not just to see how they're tracking but for all sorts of nefarious stuff like testing out our reactions to policy ideas.  On top of that there's also a lot of research into the way leading figures are perceived, all part of the process of moulding and shaping them for maximum ballot-box efficiency.  But the thing about polls that we rarely take much notice of, and should, is the sampling process.  It's vital, if you want accurate answers to your questions, to be scrupulous about the sampling process.  Let me explain.  Say you're doing a political poll; you want to be sure your respondents match the demographics of the population as a whole.  So, you end up having to interview so many men, so many women, and a set number of people in each age group to match the voting populati

Sanitarium has dropped Weet-Bix from the Warehouse stores, blaming supply issues.   The Warehouse Group is questioning why only its stores are affected and the Commerce Commission is looking into it.   Massey University marketing expert Bodo Lang told Tim Dower that it's unusual to target just one retailer.   He says it's something we don't see very often, and the way Sanitarium has handled it doesn't help as it hasn't clarified why only The Warehouse has been shutout.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A young American soldier who ran across the North Korea border is in US custody and heading home.  Travis King made a sudden dash from South to North Korea whilst on a civilian tour of the demilitarised zone two months ago.  Before he ran to North Korea, the 23-year-old had served in a South Korean prison for assault and was due to be sent home to Texas to face consequences.  US Correspondent Mitch McCann told Tim Dower that he's now been flown to China to be held in US custody.  He says King will face the consequences of the US military this time.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The chances of Chris Hipkins retaining his role as Prime Minister appears to be fading by the day.  The latest One News-Verian result puts National on 36% while Labour sits at 26%.   Earlier this week, the Herald's Poll of Polls showed Labour has a 0.2% chance of staying in government, the worst result for any main governing party since the Great Depression.   Former National Party advisor and political commentator Brigitte Morton told Tim Dower that the chances Hipkins will continue as Prime Minister are getting down to zero.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trying to pick a winner from a TV debate is a tricky thing to do.  First thing I have to bear in mind is that I'm not impartial when I look at these things. I've already decided who I want to win, so that's bound to be an influence.  I started going through it round by round, first one to Luxon, even in the second, Hipkins in round three.  Four to Luxon, five to Hipkins... overall, I'd have to say Hipkins was the winner on the night.  Which you might expect, given he's the career politician.  Did Luxon score at all? Well yes actually, he did okay for a comparative beginner.  Multi-millionaire he may be, but to my mind Luxon actually came across as the more real of the two. More in touch with what the public is saying and thinking.  Hipkins, and again my perception is obviously slanted by my political position, Hipkins was aggressive from the get-go and even looked a bit desperate.  Once he'd hit his straps and got a few zingers in he started to look cocky, arrogant, and a bit sneery.  His face formed into tha

More than $3 billion worth of food waste is filling up New Zealander’s bins every year.  Rabobank-KiwiHarvest's survey estimates household's waste 12.2% of groceries yearly, a slight decrease from last year's 13.4%.  Gen Z remain the most wasteful age group.  KiwiHarvest Food Rescue charity founder Deborah Manning told Tim Dower that one of the problems is consumers demand to see a high quantity of food at stores.  She says people want to see full shelves of bread at every hour of the day.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A plea for whoever's in Government next month to address the worrying state of the events sector in Auckland.    Auckland Unlimited has revealed to the council that no major events are confirmed in the city beyond August next year due to a lack of funding.  Heart of the City Chief Executive Viv Beck told Tim Dower that it's a major international city, so this needs to be resolved.   She says there's a big opportunity coming up for the incoming Government to really look at the whole funding mechanism for Auckland.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I guess it had to come at some point in the campaign... National's traditional swipe at the beneficiaries.  I really don't know why they do this, sanctions of one kind or another have been tried and tried again, but the fact is they really don't work.  This time the formula includes mandatory community work experience, and of course benefit cuts or suspensions.  None of its new. We've seen variations of this kind of thing for decades and little ever seems to change.  Fact of the matter is we are carrying a cohort of people who are satisfied enough with a life on the bludge.  They could work, but that's a mug's game to them when your beer money comes automatically every fortnight on the benefit.  You and I know it's their loss. Standing on your own two feet is good for the soul, work is good for the mind and body.  But when you lash at them you also hurt a lot of genuine cases, kicking people when they're down basically, and I'm not up for that.  Bashing beneficiaries is lowest common denominator stuff. It pla

A challenge has been laid down for political parties to act on breast cancer.  The Breast Cancer Foundation is releasing election scorecards which shows that all parties want to raise the free mammogram age to 74.  Only the Greens, New Zealand First, and TOP would lower the minimum age for higher risk women.  Chief Executive Ah-Leen Rayner says there's a willingness to do more, but responses were light on detail or didn't go far enough.  She says breast cancer is a human issue not a political issue, but needs political leadership to address it.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Business New Zealand is predicting a gloomy outlook for the economy.   It says economic growth is likely to be marginal over the next year in New Zealand.   It's also predicting global growth to be slow over the next few years.   Advocacy Director Catherine Beard says that alongside China's economic slowdown, other factors are adding to the disappointing predictions.   She says other factors like increasing oil prices and the Reserve Bank's battle with inflation will contribute.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Labour's accusing National of beating up on the vulnerable with its new welfare scheme.  The opposition is promising to introduce traffic light style sanctions to those on the dole who aren't meeting Jobseeker requirements.   A red light breach could mean reductions, mandatory work experience, and someone's money being managed by WINZ.  Labour's Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni told Tim Dower that it's in line with previous National parties, she's still surprised by the timing.   She says given the challenges the country is facing, she was disgusted by the timing of the announcement.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Latest polling shows National will need New Zealand First on board to form a government.  The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour's fallen slightly to 26.5% and National's dropped to 39.1%.  The Greens' boosted to 14.2%.  With ACT's 8.8% the right-bloc would have 60 MPs, just below the 61 needed to form a government.  New Zealand First's 5.2% would be required.  Political commentator Dr Grant Duncan told Tim Dower that Luxon 'had to' end the speculation, because in all likelihood, he may be having to make that call after the election.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hundreds of Air Vanuatu passengers have been left frustrated and stranded.  The airline's only Boeing 737 is grounded in Brisbane while it waits for parts following a technical fault.  Australian correspondent Donna Demaio told Tim Dower that suggestions are being made as to how this could be prevented.  She says one travel agent has suggested Air Vanuatu partners with other larger airlines so it can offer more consistent flights.  She says it's caused anger and anxiety amongst many passengers, with some first learning of the situation on their way to the airport.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Now we've had a day to mull it over... has Christopher Luxon played a smart card or a dopey one?  Up until yesterday we were under the impression Luxon wants nothing less than to have to deal with New Zealand First.  But this feels like an admission of defeat, as though Luxon has realised NZ First may well hit the threshold, and if they do that's going to drag down the number of seats National can have.  He says he'll do whatever it takes to form a coalition and I guess a lot of people will have wanted to hear that, and his reinforcing line about ACT being his preferred coalition partner without New Zealand First.  But by putting it on the agenda on a Monday morning less than three weeks before polling day has Luxon gifted a swag of attention, if not votes, to his least preferred coalition partner?  With the prospect of seats around the Cabinet table and of course an important job for Winston Peters, that vote looks a lot less like a wasted vote than it might have done.  So some right-leaning voters, mentioni

You know you're getting down to the rats and mice when you've got a major political party promising to change speed limits, if only we'll vote for them.  Now I'm not saying National's wrong about a lot of those 30k zones especially, some of them are probably really daft but others might make sense.  I guess the point is we're down to fairly trivial stuff now and the election campaign is limping into a petty bidding war.  Where is the meaningful debate about political ideas? Where is the serious discussion about where we see ourselves in five, ten years from now?  Where is the vision of a better New Zealand for our children, our grandchildren?  I guess we only have ourselves to blame, because when it comes to ticking the box on the day, what's going to motivate most of us?  I'll go out on a limb and say it's money.  Most of us are going to vote for the party which will either improve our lot in life, or at least not make it any worse.  Some of us may be contemplating what we're leaving for the kids, some may e

London’s police force said Sunday that some officers are refusing to conduct armed patrols after a colleague was charged with murder in the fatal shooting of an unarmed Black man.  A Metropolitan Police marksman was charged Wednesday over the September 2022 death of Chris Kaba, 24. Kaba was killed after officers in an unmarked vehicle pursued and stopped the car he was driving. He was struck by a single bullet fired through the windshield as he sat in the Audi car.  The case renewed allegations of institutional racism within the London police department. Kaba’s family welcomed the murder charge against the officer, who has not been publicly named. He was granted conditional bail and is expected to stand trial next year.  Only about one in 10 of London’s police officers carry firearms, and the ones that do undergo special training.  The Metropolitan Police force said Sunday that “a number of officers have taken the decision to step back from armed duties while they consider their position.” It said officers we

Not the best of weekends for New Zealand sport.  The Warriors bandwagon has come to a grinding halt, after the Kiwi side’s 42-12 defeat in Brisbane to the Broncos.  But the Warriors have a lot to celebrate regardless, having gone from wooden spoon candidates to one game away from the big dance.  The Silver Ferns’ post-World Cup hoodoo remains, after their 55-54 loss to England’s B team.  Despite a last-quarter fightback, the young England side proved too strong in both attack and defence in the first three.  Newstalk ZB Wellington sports reader Adam Cooper joined Tim Dower.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Automobile Association is expressing its support for some of National's speed reduction promises.  National's announced it'll return many state highways to 100 km/h from 80, and many local roads to 50.  AA Policy Manager Dylan Thomsen told Tim Dower they like the idea of increasing expressway speeds, having more variable speed limits near schools, and fewer unmanned roadwork sites.  “That’s an area that’s a common frustration for a lot of people, so if we can improve that and have less of that, that’d be great.”  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

National's deputy has confirmed the party would work with New Zealand First - if it came to it.   It's understood leader Chris Luxon will confirm in a social media video today that he's willing to work with Winston Peters if necessary.   It comes after weeks of questions.   Nicola Willis told Tim Dower their preference is to form a two-party coalition government of National and ACT.  “Realistically, if New Zealand First is to return to Parliament and we need to pick up the phone to Mr Peters to keep Labour out, to keep the coalition of chaos of Te Pati Maori and the Greens out.”  LISTEN ABOUTSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Chief Children's Commissioner has labelled the latest review of Oranga Tamariki shocking.  The latest probe into the government agency has found that there needs to be urgent change to fix major issues, including those related to staffing and capacity.  Judge Frances Eivers told Francesca Rudkin that it's not good enough and our children in care deserve better.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.