The Tennis Abstract Podcast

Jeff and Carl review the memorable US Open men's final, featuring a resurgent Daniil Medvedev and a resilient Rafael Nadal, both of whom emptied their tactical toolboxes in Sunday's five-hour marathon. We cover Nadal's path to the all-time grand slam lead, whether Medvedev can become the tallest #1 of all time, and whether fellow first-time semi-finalist Matteo Berrettini is in the same league as the Russian. On the women's final, we consider whether Serena Williams offered a fair assessment of her own game, and just how high champion Bianca Andreescu can climb.

Jeff and Carl start by previewing the new Tennis Abstract player pages, which you can expect to see roll out over the next few days. Look forward to tons of new stats, plus new ways of looking at traditional numbers. Most of the episode is devoted to our US Open preview. We consider much Novak Djokovic's chances are hurt by the draw, in particular his likelihood of facing Daniil Medvedev again in the quarter-finals. We highlight some notable early-round matches in both the men's and women's draws, and talk in further depth about Coco Gauff, Sloane Stephens, Serena Williams, Karolina Muchova, and Su-Wei Hsieh.

Jeff and Carl resume last week's conversation about Daniil Medvedev's tactical choices, now that he took down Novak Djokovic with big second serving en route to his first Masters title. We also consider whether Medvedev's generation is more aggressive than the ones that came before, notwithstanding the Russian's predilection for 30-stroke rallies. We also consider the decisions that led to a best-ever title for Madison Keys, a player who thrives with high-risk, powerful shotmaking, but dialed things back a bit in Cincinnati. We wrap up with an overview of my new Match Charting Project-derived stat leaderboards and a first-hand glimpse of the new WTA event this week in the Bronx.

Jeff and Carl dig into the unique tactical approach of fast-rising Daniil Medvedev, who reached the Montreal final last week but failed to make a dent against Rafael Nadal. We consider the importance of point-finishing skills, the declining role of surface speed, as well as Bianca Andreescu's sudden return to the top of the women's field.

Jeff and Carl discuss the awkward position of World Team Tennis, which is loaded with stars but has a hard time succeeding outside the structure of the tennis tours. On court, they look at the spectacular serving performance of sub-six-foot Alex de Minaur, another disappointing loss for Alexander Zverev, and a shock comeback from Cedrik-Marcel Stebe.

Jeff is joined by guest co-host Jeff McFarland this week, and the two Jeffs take an analytical dive into the tennis institution, looking at who deserves to be there, who doesn't, and how we ought to decide. We also discuss Jeff M's work on various ways to quantify career accomplishments.

Jeff and Carl attack the five-hour Djokovic-Federer men's final from all sorts of angles, including Novak's excellence on key points, Fed's surprisingly decent backhand, and the first, awkward tiebreak at 12 games all. We also question how much of the lopsided women's final result could be attributed to Halep peaking, and how much to an off-day for Serena Williams.

Jeff and Carl recap the first week of Wimbledon, with a focus on the oustanding debut of 15-year-old Cori Gauff. We also talk Kyrgios-Nadal, Murray-Serena doubles, the possibly slower surface, and Raonic the decent returner. We also offer forecasts for each of the 16 fourth-round matches, along with Elo- and market-based predictions for each one.

Jeff and Carl do a deep dive into whether there is still a place for serve-and-volley tennis in today's game, especially for the most dominant servers. They cover the highlights of several events the week before Wimbledon, starting with the big Pliskova-Kerber WTA final and the all-American ATP title match in Eastbourne, and weigh how this week's winners are likely to fare in the big event at the All England Club.

Jeff and Carl resume a discussion about the potential value of unlimited in-match coaching, and check in on Andy Murray's surprisingly successful doubles comeback. They also do some Wimbledon forecasting, picking Novak Djokovic and new WTA No. 1 Ashleigh Barty as the favorites, amid crowded fields of marginal contenders.

Jeff and Carl wonder about how clay-court breakthrough star Matteo Berrettini transferred his winning ways to grass, with a debut title on that surface in Stuttgart. We also wander through a long list of other topics, including Andy Murray's return to the doubles court, the Herbert-Mahut split, the multi-surface improvisation in Nottingham, and the US Open's new coaching rule.

Jeff and Carl celebrate the breakthrough of Ashleigh Barty by discussing what sets her game apart, what might be working for her on clay, and what her future holds. We mark Rafael Nadal's 12th Roland Garros title with a (futile) search for tennis achievements that compare to Rafa's French Open dominance. Finally, we consider whether the best tennis players are the best at anything in particular, and whether stats on grand slam websites are anything more than a marketing exercise.

Jeff and Carl come up with a bonus episode to preview the men's and women's semi-finals at Roland Garros. We discuss the unending parade of upsets that has provided us a women's final four without a single grand slam finalist, as well as the star-studded men's quartet, including the first Federer-Nadal encounter on clay in six years.

Jeff and Carl go through the quarter-final lineups for both men and women at this year's French Open. Nadal remains a favorite, Halep faces another newbie, and we offer uncertain forecasts for the lot. We also discuss the spectator experience at Roland Garros, including what sets the tournament apart from the other grand slams.

Jeff and Carl recap the ATP/WTA joint event in Rome, where Rafael Nadal got his mojo back, winning his ninth title with a decisive final-round victory over Novak Djokovic. A less-polished clay-court performer, Karolina Pliskova, took the women's title, and we explain why her game may be more clay-friendly than you think. Also: Nick Kyrgios wants attention, and we give him some.

Jeff and Carl struggle to draw conclusions from Rafael Nadal's latest surprise loss in Madrid, as the King of Clay has no titles in 2019, but his track record still suggests he's the favorite (or close) at Roland Garros. We also cover the continued late blooming of Kiki Bertens, the surprise relevance of Roger Federer, and the abysmal doubles record of Marco Cecchinato.

Jeff and Carl delve into the little-known group of dirt-ballers, including Garin, Matteo Berrettini, and Guido Pella, who are piling up the clay-court wins in 2019, while former great David Ferrer is calling time on his outstanding career.

Jeff and Carl re-evaluate Rafael Nadal's status as clay-court favorite after his semi-final loss to Dominic Thiem in Barcelona. We also consider what Daniil Medvedev is doing right, even if it didn't work against Thiem. Finally, we dive into the muck that is tennis's typically incoherent response to Justin Gimelstob's assault case.

Jeff and Carl recap the Monte Carlo Masters and try to make sense of Rafael Nadal's semi-final loss to Fabio Fognini. We discuss how seriously to take the early exits of Nadal and Djokovic, as well as Fognini's future. We also cover the Fed Cup final four and consider whether the women's event should undergo a radical change next year to match the Davis Cup.

Jeff and Carl review a week's worth of ATP and WTA results, starting with Christian Garin and Casper Ruud, the dirtballers who contested the Houston final. They consider the decline of clay-court specialization, and the more aggressive returning style favored by up-and-coming women's stars such as Amanda Anisimova. Finally, they discuss Jeff's recent findings about Caroline Wozniacki's extremely predictable serves.