The Tennis Abstract Podcast

I am joined by Dave Seminara, author of the entertaining new book Footsteps of Federer: A Fan's Pilgrimage Across 7 Swiss Cantons in 10 Acts. We talk about how Roger Federer is typically Swiss (and how he is not), how his Swiss admirers differ from his legions of fans elsewhere around the world, and how the Swiss network of small-town clubs sets the country apart. Dave also shares the stores behind some of his quests to track down sources for his tennis articles--it turns out that finding a 60-year-old Togolese Davis Cupper can be just as tricky as getting Federer to open up about his past. As we are fellow travel buffs, we venture into that territory as well, talking about tactics for budget travel in Switzerland, how Switzerland compares to Norway, and just how far some people will go to check a destination off their list--the topic of another of Seminara's books, Mad Travelers, due out this summer.

I welcome Joe Posnanski, senior writer at The Athletic, for a wide-ranging conversation starting with a discussion of Djokovic's and Osaka's wins at the Australian Open. He talks about what might be stopping the younger generation of men from dethroning Djokovic and Nadal, why Naomi Osaka is different, how much credit to give to coaches, and whether the outstanding crop of young American women is underreported. Joe also shares his thoughts about how to compare players across eras, whether we ought to pay more attention to the amateur era, and what he'd write about if he could write more about tennis.

Carl and I use the fitness sagas of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal as a springboard to talk about injury management--the way in which players handle constant nagging injuries, whether that means adapting their tactics, changing their pace, rearranging their schedule, or just plain suffering. We also wonder how much undisclosed injury and fatigue affects match results, or if commentators focus too much on questions of physical readiness at the expense of talking about the tennis itself.

Jeff chats with Bill Connelly, an ESPN college football writer who dug into Match Charting Project data this week to write about the complex mastery of Novak Djokovic. Bill explains how Djokovic tactically differs from the competition, how his game has changed over the years, and whether the nature of his game makes it tough to fully appreciate. He also weighs on whether tour-wide parity is better than dominance, how ESPN (and tennis media in general) could cover the sport differently, and why there are so few people who love both tennis and college football.

Carl and I dig into the opportunity generated by the Covid-19 pandemic to study natural experiments in sports. Many of the things we used to take for granted--stadiums full of fans, weekly travel schedules, consistent training opportunities--have been disrupted for some or all players, in tennis and other major sports. We consider what we can learn about home-court advantage, the predictability of results, the role of unchanging venues, and even the speed of play, by comparing pre-pandemic numbers with their corresponding figures since sports got back underway. We also wonder about the limitations of these sorts of studies, because there are always confounding variables. The biggest confounder of all: the pandemic itself.

Carl and I recap the podcast's first book club selection, Gordon Forbes's well-regarded 1978 memoir of 1950s and 1960s amateur tennis. We talk about what we learned about pre-Open Era tennis, what set Rod Laver apart from his peers, how Forbes stacked up as a player, and whether the lifestyles of amateur and pro players were really so different. We also address the tricky subject of how to read a memoir with very of-the-time attitudes toward women, barely an acknowledgement of apartheid, and a 2017 prologue that has nothing to say about either issue. Despite those reservations, there's much in the book to appreciate.

Jeff and Carl welcome guest Joshua Robinson of the Wall Street Journal, co-author of The Club: How the English Premier League Became the Wildest, Richest, Most Disruptive Force in Sports. We run the gamut of Covid-in-sports topics, including the fate of the 2020/21 Tokyo Olympics, the outlook for athletes who want to jump the vaccine queue, the miraculously completed Tour de France, how Wimbledon's response to the pandemic might have been the best of all, and what to expect in international sports once vaccines are widely available. We also touch on a few non-Covid questions, like what Slovenian sports can teach the rest of the world, and what Josh thinks about the underhand serve. We close with a few words about our departed friend and colleague, Tom Perrotta.

Carl flips the script and interviews Jeff this week on his recent efforts to add pre-Open Era women's tennis data to Tennis Abstract. High-level tennis did not begin in 1968 with the introduction of Open tennis, but official statistical records often give the mistaken impression that it did. We talk about the existing state of the data, the players whose reputations rest heavily on pre-Open Era accomplishments, and the value of simply getting historical records into an accessible format. We also cover two very different #1s, Althea Gibson and Margaret Court, and dip into what people get right and wrong in the Serena-vs-Court debate.

Jeff welcomes guest Sasha Abramsky, author of the book Little Wonder: The Fabulous Story of Lottie Dod, the World's First Female Sports Superstar. Our wide-ranging conversation covers many aspects of the life and times of this 19th century superstar, from her global legions of fans, to her "Battle of the Sexes"-style challenges 80 years before King-Rings, to her unprecedented and varied string of sporting successes. We also touch on the relative dearth of tennis historiography, the chronological gap between Dod and the next generation of female athletic superstars, and whether there is a natural intersection between progressive politics and the compelling stories of tennis history.

Jeff interviews David Berry, veteran documentarian and author of A People's History of Tennis. The conversation, like his book, spans the entire history of tennis, with a particular focus on the ways in which the sport isn't conservative at all. As Berry explains, women were a crucial part of lawn tennis from the very beginning, and a key decision in the game's first decade ensured that the men's and women's games would remain intertwined. We also discuss the role of the local tennis club, the importance of public parks tennis around the world, and the fascinating yet mostly forgotten years of "Worker's Wimbledon."

Jeff and Carl report back after watching the new Netflix documentary, Guillermo Vilas: Settling the Score. The Argentine star was a multi-slam winner in the 1970s, yet he never reached the top of the ranking list ... or did he? The film covers one journalist's quest to prove that Vilas deserved to be #1. We discuss the importance of the top ranking, the vagaries of the ranking algorithm, how Elo rates Vilas's peak years, and the ATP's response to Vilas's case for the top spot. We didn't love the documentary, but the issues it raises are fun to debate.

Jeff welcomes guest Steven Blush, author of the recent book Bustin' Balls: World Team Tennis 1974-78: Pro Sports, Pop Culture, and Progressive Politics. We talk about how drastically WTT has changed from the early days, the crucial importance of Billie Jean King and the 1973 Battle of the Sexes, and how WTT fit into the 1970s cultural milieu. As Steven tells it, the original WTT was revolutionary, even "proto-woke," with a place for everyone, setting men and women on equal footing, and welcoming everyone from Black NBA star John Lucas to (eventually) transgender trailblazer Renee Richards. This is an in-depth look at a neglected but fascinating part of tennis history.

Jeff and Carl celebrate the final match of the ATP season, the Tour Finals championship match between Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem. We discuss Medvedev's tactical savvy and physical versaility, along with over- and under-rated parts of Thiem's game. Also on the agenda: Are Medvedev and Thiem a clear "second group" behind Djokovic and Nadal but ahead of the rest of the pack? Will Medvedev have a better career than Alexander Zverev or Andrey Rublev? What constitutes tactical perfection? How could we measure it? Are we biased toward all-around players when listing the strongest tacticians? Is it possible for a 30-stroke rally to be tactically strong?

Jeff is joined by Carl Bialik and Jeff McFarland, dipping our collective toe into a debate in the tennis coaching world. With rallies short and aggressive, should players be using practice time differently? What types of skills can still be improved, once a player has reached the top? What tactics can a coach teach their charges, and which ones are too deeply ingrained in the physical nature of hitting the shots? Is a 3- or 4-shot rally qualitatively different from a 5- or more-shot rally? How would you teach Madison Keys to retain the positives of her aggressive style while dialing back the aggression a bit? We offer more questions than answers, which seems appropriate for a topic that is far from settled, and is likely to remain controversial for years to come.

Jeff is joined by Carl Bialik and Jeff McFarland, trying out a new format for a new year. We dig into the new ATP Cup, considering whether the format is appealing to players and fans, how we should feel about odd matchups between players hundreds of ranking places apart, and--most importantly--what captains should be doing with the stats available to them. We also look at the top of the WTA ranking table, considering whether Ashleigh Barty will continue her reign for another twelve months, or if Bianca Andreescu--or Karolina Pliskova--will topple her.

Jeff welcomes guest Joshua Robinson (@joshrobinson23), European sports reporter for the Wall Street Journal and co-author of the book The Club: How the English Premier League Became the Wildest, Richest, Most Disruptive Force in Sports. We hear from Josh in between his trips to the Gulf, just back from the boxing prize-fight at Diriyah Arena, where the first professional tennis tournament was played in Saudi Arabia. We talk about why oil-rich states use athletic spectacles to "sportswash" their reputations, and what it means for the sporting organizations and athletes that help them do it. We also consider the effect on fans, with what Josh calls "Qatar-ification"--events produced in oft-empty arenas for far-off audiences, in a climate wholly unsuited to the sport. It's easy to ignore this stuff during exhibition season, but these are important issues that transcend sport.

Jeff chats with Martin Ingram (@xenophar), a PhD student in statistics and author of a recent academic paper presenting a new approach to predicting tennis match outcomes. We talk about his model, what makes it different from other common approaches to match prediction such as Elo, and the simplifying assumptions that make it possible. Martin explains the benefits of a technique that allows to incorporate the effects of surface and even specific tournaments, while considering what data we might include in a more comprehensive model.

Jeff talks with Paul Timmons (@PaulT_Tennis), author of the My Tennis Adventures blog, about the failures of the ITF to provide a logical structure for up-and-coming players. We cover the gender inequality that makes it much more difficult for women to make a living at the equivalent of the ATP Challenger level, the federations that centralize when they should be localizing, and the inevitability of match-fixing when live data provides so much of the sport's revenue. We also touch on several up-and-coming players, the likely next men's major winner, and why the Davis Cup Finals--for all its flaws--is superior to the upcoming ATP Cup.

Jeff is joined by Peter Wetz (@sPETEcore), making his third appearance on the show. Peter and Jeff take a deep dive into the first edition of the new Davis Cup Finals, talking about Rafael Nadal's dominance in both singles and doubles, the surprise heroics of Vasek Pospisil, and why the #2 singles players may be the key to a side's success. We also take a close look at the format, which despite some obvious flaws, gave us a week of gripping tennis.

Jeff chats with guest Erik Jonsson (@erktennis), of Tennisportalen and Sourcepodden, about last week's ATP NextGen Finals, which included up-and-coming Swedish star Mikael Ymer. We talk about the stunning rise of Jannik Sinner, the progress shown by Alex De Minaur, and we consider the advantages and disadvantages of a whole slew of the rule innovations that are employed at the NextGen event in Milan. We also delve into Mikael Ymer's potential, whether older brother Elias could still become a top-100 player, and if there is any reason why so many prominent umpires hail from Sweden. Finally, we chat about Erik's Tennis Hipster Handbook, and we wonder whether it's possible to follow tennis anymore without Twitter.