Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

On the eve of one of the most consequential Jobs Fridays maybe ever, Jeffrey Snider says markets reflect an ongoing struggle between central bankers and investors. The former believe they must continue on their rate-hiking path. The latter, particularly bond investors, are showing far greater concern about economic growth. Snider, the chief strategist for Atlas Financial and the co-host of the popular Eurodollar University podcast, notes that multiple indicators, including eurodollar futures, suggest the Federal Reserve has it all wrong. Recent data show global macro deterioration; combine that with tightening liquidity conditions, and, Jeff notes, we have an equation for rising deflation. Jeff joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about investors, central bankers, and their tug of war. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3RhivyR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Institute of Supply Management’s services gauge sank to its lowest level in two years, mortgage demand declined despite falling rates, and the housing rental market cooled markedly, as evidence of economic slowdown accumulates. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, as revealed by the minutes to the June 14-15 FOMC meeting, remains “highly attentive” to inflation risks. “The market is still in a process of pricing in or pricing out incremental tightening, as if there’s a spectrum of Fed activity,” explained Darius Dale in his daily note this morning. “But the Fed is waiting to achieve its signal before it does something different.” The Federal Reserve, according to Darius, is operating right now under a “singular” mandate, and that is to get inflation expectations re-anchored to its long-term 2% target. Darius, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about whether and when the Fed will respond to data other than inflation. We also get a sneak peak at Raoul Pal’s and Sam Bankman-Fried’s d

Commodity prices are collapsing, the U.S. dollar is soaring, and the yield curve has inverted again: This is not an auspicious combination. Nor is the fact that a Bloomberg Economics model is now indicating a 38% chance of a recession in the next year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about recent price action in the commodities market and the longer-term supply-demand story for oil and gas – highlighted by a look-in at Tony’s recent conversation with the infamous Doomberg about the complexities of hydrocarbons and their everyday use. Andreas and Tony also discuss the current condition of the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OGZ1ls. Watch the full interview with Doomberg and Tony Greer here: https://rvtv.io/3yh8toE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Realtor Steve Saretsky is the author of one of Vancouver’s most popular real estate blogs. Steve joins Harry Melandri to talk about everything to do with Canada’s housing market. He’s bearish because mortgage rates are rising rapidly while consumer debt levels are already very high. Vancouver, Toronto, and other major Canadian markets have been red-hot for years. But people in those markets are now highly leveraged. Steve sorts through the implications and forecasts what’s next for housing in Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Jason Buck’s story is wildly fascinating. When he was 19, he turned $2,000 into $100,000 simply by investing in tech stocks. A few years later, he was worth roughly $5 million. But he lost it all during the Global Financial Crisis, and he had to move in with his sister. It’s a wildly fascinating story, full of lessons about surviving, battling through adversity, and succeeding. Above all, as Jason shares with Maggie Lake, is to be always willing to learn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The major U.S. equity indexes edged into positive territory after opening in the red, even as a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 53 in June from 56.1 in May, a two-year low, and the latest update to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow gauge came in at negative 2.1% on an annualized basis. Not only is a U.S. recession more likely than a soft landing; we may already be in one. “I’m keeping an open mind, and if we do have a recession it will produce an even more powerful rally, as bull markets are born out of recessions," says Mark Ritchie II. Ritchie II, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about financial markets, the global economy, and capital preservation. We also hear from Mark Minervini about diversified portfolios in a bear market versus a bull market. And we drop in on an exclusive interview between Ash and CEO Mark Lamb about CoinFLEX’s struggle for survival amid the crypto downturn. Want to submit questions? Drop them righ

Stocks are sliding and bonds are rallying, as investors react to accumulating evidence that inflation will persist even though the economy is slowing down. There’s a word for that kind of scenario: stagflation. “The Fed is facing one of the worst predicaments of its existence,” tweeted Tavi Costa. “The US economy simply cannot handle the Fed’s continued monetary tightening." Costa, a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about the confluence of three macro extremes. We also hear from Hari Krishnan about how there may not be a solution for the Federal Reserve’s dilemma. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AklJeO. Watch the full conversation featuring Hari Krishnan and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnVhttps://rvtv.io/3xYSJG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. gross domestic product contracted by 1.6% on an annualized basis during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s final estimate, as consumer spending was weaker than originally forecast. The sense we’re heading for recession was heightened when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said today at a European Central Bank forum that policymakers won’t let the economy slip into a "higher inflation regime" even if it means raising interest rates to levels that put growth at risk. He maintains U.S. household finances remain strong. “The Fed needs you to capitulate on summer travel in order for inflation to get under control,” says 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale. Darius joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about receding inflation fear and rising recession risk. We also hear from Francis Gannon about how higher interest rates are driving a shift in market focus. And we share a segment from today’s Crypto Unwrapped episode on continuing upheaval in the crypto market. Want

The S&P 500 is down nearly 18% year to date, its worst first-half performance since 1970. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 16 months in June, as inflation continues to extract its due. And Google searches for "recession" have reached a new high, according to Andreas Steno Larsen. “Typically,” he adds, “that only happens during actual recessions. Are we already in one, or is the risk overstated by now?” The fear of slowing growth now supplanting the fear of inflation, markets have fresh fuel to reprice assets across the risk spectrum. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, recession, and recent price action, including the particular pressure on convertible bonds. We also hear from Michael Gayed about an emerging counter-trend trade based on a correction for crude oil and commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3u7AgGV. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Gayed here: Learn more about your ad choices

Russia defaulted on its external debt for the first time in more than a century, a technical breach brought about by historic sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s war-making machine. Equity indexes turned lower in afternoon trade following last week’s big rally but have basically shrugged off this development. Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vison’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about broader implications of Russia’s default on the global bond and energy markets. Boockvar and Larsen also discuss recent economic data and when we might expect to start seeing negative monthly prints in key indicators such as durable goods orders and retail sales. We also hear from Francis Gannon about why it may take a while for a market bottom to form. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yns8V6. Watch the full interview featuring Francis Gannon here: ttps://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe.. When the Fed hiked interest rates on June 13th to levels not seen since before the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic, Egon Von Greyerz was more wary than usual. As the Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management, he is no stranger to these sorts of fluctuations, but something about this particular rate hike seems different. He joins Harry Melandri to discuss the impending changes, the best way to measure returns, and why currency is not the way to go. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Dan Morehead, the CEO of Pantera Capital, talks with Maggie Lake about how new investors should approach crypto during a bear market, why he believes Bitcoin will make a comeback, and what lessons he's learned throughout his career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All three major U.S. equity indexes were up more than 2% heading into Friday’s close, even as the University of Michigan’s reading of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June. As its inflation-fighting efforts threaten growth, the Federal Reserve released results of its periodic “stress tests” showing that all subject banks passed. “Bear in mind,” tweeted Jim Bianco, “the Fed does NOT test for a massive policy error leading to soaring interest rates and huge losses. In other words, these tests, created and conducted by the Fed, assume the Fed never makes a mistake.” Bianco, the founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about markets, the economy, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. We also hear from Eric Johnston about the market’s perception of the U.S. central bank and its ability to meet its own targets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yirRmq. Watch the full conversation featuring Eric Johnston and Andreas Steno Lar

The Federal Reserve’s commitment to cooling inflation remains “unconditional,” said Jerome Powell in a second day of congressional testimony, even as evidence from overseas indicates we’re heading for a slowdown. “Growth down, inflation expectations down, cracks start to appear in commodity momentum,” tweeted Andreas Steno Larsen. S&P Global’s preliminary Eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to a 16-month low in June on slower demand growth. “We know that the manufacturing cycle is weakening fast,” Andreas noted, “but the service sector was anticipated to have a strong summer. This is now debatable.” Andreas joins Weston Nakamura to talk about Europe, while Weston provides an update on what’s happening in Asia. More broadly, they talk about whether the narrative focus is changing from “inflation” to “recession.” We also hear from Tian Yang about long-term constraints on commodity supplies. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3bohJiR. Watch the full conv

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, testifying before Congress on Wednesday, said the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation and can do so with its monetary policy tools. He also acknowledged that engineering a “soft landing” will be “very challenging.” Indeed, Bill Dudley, a former Fed governor, wrote today that “a recession is inevitable within the next 12 to 18 months.” Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined, as President Joe Biden floated a three-month federal gasoline tax holiday. The three major U.S. indexes held modest gains approaching the closing bell, as investors saw room in Powell’s words for a sooner-than-expected dovish turn. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the effort to control inflation without constraining growth and the market’s reaction to Powell’s testimony. We also hear from Tian Yang about the issue of the Fed’s credibility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: http

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 2% Tuesday, and it was the laggard among the major U.S. equity indexes as investors emerged from the three-day weekend buying with both hands. Energy stocks led the way, as West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $111 a barrel. Bloomberg data also show the refining business is doing very well amid this energy bull. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about today’s big bounce and whether it signals the beginning of something bigger. Tony also shares his thoughts on crude oil, the 3:2:1 crack spread, and the durable role of fossil fuels in the modern economy. And we hear from Michael Howell about the accumulating evidence that we’re headed for a global recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/39E0AkP. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Howell and Jared Dillian here: https://rvtv.io/3y7gXQf. Learn more about your ad choice

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. The U.S. housing market boomed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand surged, as low interest rates fed a desire to find more space. What happens now, with the average 30-year mortgage rate up to 5.5% from 3.0% at the beginning of 2022? Nick Halaris of Metros Capital believes the market will remain resilient, and he explains why in a fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Michael Gayed is an experienced portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and the author of five award-winning research papers on market anomalies and investing. He joins Maggie Lake to explain how his toughest moments made him a stronger trader and why humility is an essential element of long-term success. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ash welcomes Michael Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, to assess the bigger picture after a tough week for equities and fixed income. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mUOI11. Watch the full Real Visionaries interview featuring Mark Ritchie II and Mark Ritchie here: https://rvtv.io/3OgNoks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“You don’t buy when there’s ‘blood in the streets,’” notes Darius Dale. “You buy when there’s a catalyst to clean it up.” U.S. equity indexes are bleeding today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding below the 30,000 mark. The question is, what is that catalyst, and when will it reveal itself? Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to answer that question and to talk about today’s price action in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s biggest rate hike since 1994. According to Darius, “This trending volatility won’t end until the liquidity cycle inflects and speeds up the growth cycle bottom.” Mortgage rates have already exploded past 6%, a sign tighter monetary policy is already impacting consumers. How far will the Fed go to catch inflation? “Inflation KILLS societies,” says Darius. We also hear from Mark Ritchie II about how to manage risk in a volatile environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mRtaSP. Watch the f