Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, describing the outlook as “gloomy and more uncertain.” That general picture is reflected in cuts to quarterly and annual profit forecasts by U.S. retail bellwether Walmart $WMT. The European Union’s natural gas crisis did take a relatively constructive turn with an agreement by member countries to cut consumption by 15%. Investors will be focused on the Federal Open Market Committee until its decision on Wednesday and the post-meeting press conference. Will it be 50, 75, or even 100 basis points? Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the Federal Reserve’s options, the potential ripple effects of those choices, and why the Japanese yen remains a critical indicator of the health of the financial system. We also hear from Jeffrey Snider about what the eurodollar futures curve is telling us about the condition of the global economy. Watch the full interview featuring Steven Van Metre, Jeffrey Snider, and Darius

The major U.S. equity indexes were mixed as of midday Monday, as investors anticipate another interest rate move by the Federal Open Market Committee and digest earnings reports from some of the biggest companies in the world, with numbers expected to be held down by a strong dollar and soaring inflation. We’ll also get an advance estimate of second-quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as debate heats up about what is and whether we are already in a recession. “Economic numbers are starting to weaken,” notes Jeff Meyers, “and we feel a recession is on the way.” Meyers, the CEO of Cobia Capital Management, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the operating and market environment for small-caps and to identify the names that will lead the way out of this bear market. We also hear from Luke Gromen about how he’s adjusted his view of a “Fed pivot.” Watch the full interview with Lyn Alden and Luke Gromen here: https://rvtv.io/3cEWJW2. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adcho

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this week’s jam-packed episode of The Next Big Trade, Doomberg, a Substack star and a low-key FinTwit legend, and Michael Kao, the CIO of the Kao Family Office, join Harry Melandri to talk about everything happening across crude oil, natural gas, and other key energy markets. Doomberg, Michael, and Harry survey the current landscape, ponder what’s on the horizon, and debate solutions to a developing global energy crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Noel Smith has learned many hard lessons during his 25 years trading volatility, making markets, and managing risk. Now a managing partner and the chief investment officer of Convex Asset Management, Noel cut his teeth by trading Enron and losing big but turning it around and coming out of the Global Financial Crisis in the green. He joins Maggie Lake to share the wisdom he’s accrued along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Deteriorating PMI data in the U.S. as well as Europe ahead of what the market expects will be a 75-basis-point rate hike following next week’s Federal Open Market Committee enhanced the specter of slowing economic growth, even as we’ve yet to see peak inflation, and investors sold stocks today. That’s despite the fact that the United Nations brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine to restart shipments of blockaded grain and address the rising threat of famine across the Middle East and North Africa, a ray of hope amid what remains a complex geopolitical, macroeconomic, and global financial backdrop. Raoul Pal joins Maggie Lake to talk about recent price action and recent moves by central banks to cope with circumstances that more and more seem beyond their control. Raoul also shares highlights from his recent conversation with Real Vision co-founder Damian Horner about an exciting new series currently in production. Watch the full conversation featuring Raoul and Damian here: https://www.realvision.com/an-

The European Central Bank announced an expectations-beating half-point interest-rate hike today, at the same time introducing a “tool” to ensure borrowing costs in vulnerable economies don’t spiral out of control, as central banks continue to fight inflation. Weston Nakamura drops in at the top of today’s Daily Briefing for an update on the Bank of Japan’s divergence from its peers, coining the phrase “yield spread control” to highlight a critical split at the heart of the global financial system. And former IMF economist and Wall Street strategist David Woo, now writing at DavidWooUnbound.com, joins Maggie Lake to talk about the ECB, softening U.S. economic data ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and the implications of a crumbling Chinese credit market. Are we fated for a stagflationary future? David and Maggie address that question and many more as the countdown to Fed Week continues. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Office of National Statistics reported Wednesday that inflation in the U.K. hit a new 40-year high in June, consumer prices rising 9.4% from a year earlier and adding pressure on the Bank of England for a response. Meanwhile, a gauge from the European Commission showed Euro Area consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level on record. And two measures of the health of the U.S. housing market showed significant deterioration last month. Still, according to Harry Melandri, we likely haven’t seen “peak inflation,” and so central banks will keep hiking rates. Melandri, an advisor at MI2 Partners, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about how the Fed might respond to core CPI readings over the next quarter and to express his skepticism over Russia’s weaponization of its natural gas. “Do they need the money more than we need the gas?” We also hear from Harris Kupperman about why the Federal Reserve is “gonna slow down” and “take a pause.” Watch Stephan Clapham’s full interview with Harris here: https:/

In his most recent newsletter, Tony Greer of TG Macro wrote, “The setup for oil bulls on this gorgeous summer Friday morning is not to be believed. Stocks and commodities just spent the last quarter hemorrhaging in historic proportions, and now we’ve got a textbook turnaround setup…” Well, stocks are ripping today, and WTI crude oil is back above $104 per barrel, even as residential-starts data suggest the U.S. housing market is cooling and Apple announced plans to slow hiring and spending. Gasoline prices have fallen to two-month lows a week ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the central bank is expected to announce another inflation-fighting 75-basis-point rate hike. Tony’s here to talk about all that and more with Real Vision’s Maggie Lake. We also hear from Chen Zhao about the coming “run of the mill” recession and how it differs from prior crisis-driven downturns. Watch the entire interview featuring Chen Zhao and Marko Papic here: https://rvtv.io/3aLSmrD. Learn more about you

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America posted solid headline-level earnings this morning, both benefiting from higher interest rates during the second quarter. But both also posted significantly higher provisions for bad loans, a sign of concern for the health of debtors. Meanwhile, hope for some sort of relief from Saudi Arabia appears to be the forlorn variety, as Desert Kingdom officials declined to make any promises regarding future crude oil output increases. European Union officials, in a sign of increasing desperation, did cut a natural gas deal with Azerbaijan. Luke Gromen, the founder and president of FFTT, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Laresen to talk about what happens when the Federal Reserve pushes the U.S. economy into recession to fight inflation. According to Gromen, many investors and policymakers are “seemingly oblivious to what the Federal deficit has done in the two recessions prior to COVID.” We also hear from Alexander Stahel about Vladimir Putin’s ongoing effort to inflict maximum pain o

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Shawn Hackett is the president of Hackett Financial Advisors, a firm that helps investors and hedgers (most notably farmers but end-users too) make better decisions when they get involved in agricultural commodities markets. Shawn joins Harry Melandri to talk about how weather patterns figure into commodity price forecasting, what impact current geopolitical factors could have on those prices, why we could face a cattle shortage, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Michael Gayed has amassed a Twitter following of more than 664,000. So how does he meet the expectations and manage the stress that come with such a public undertaking? In conversation with Maggie Lake, Michael shares his social media coping mechanisms, and he also explains how music became a creative outlet for him. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Jared Dillian tweeted it out: “It would take 8 months of 0.0% CPI readings to get CPI back to 5%.” And that was before the Commerce Department reported retail sales grew by a greater-than-expected 1% in June. President Joe Biden is in Saudi Arabia working on one angle of the inflation crisis, as investors re-priced the possibility of a 100-basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. Here’s something else Jared tweeted, yesterday: “Starting to think we put in bottoms in oil, gold, and stocks, and a top in the dollar at 10 am this morning.” The editor of The Daily Dirtnap joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about those “bottoms” and how inflation and the Fed’s response to it is affecting the economy, markets, and expectations. We also hear from Anas Alhajji about short-term factors weighing on crude oil prices. Watch the full interview with Tony Greer and Anas Alhajji here: https://rvtv.io/3z9Rbvk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's jam-packed Real Vision Twitter Spaces, Raoul Pal, Ash Bennington, and Jim Bianco talk about everything from inflation and the US dollar to growth and tech, including crypto and so much more. Enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The producer price index was up 11.3% year over year in June, the seventh consecutive double-digit gain, and accelerated to 1.1% from 0.9% in May on a month-over-month basis, as inflationary pressure continues to build. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest bank in the U.S. by market cap, reported a 28% decline in earnings and boosted its provision for bad loans by $428 million. And jobless claims surged to a 2022 high. That’s to say nothing of the multiple failures in the crypto space. Financial economist and author Frances Coppola, the self-proclaimed "Notorious Crypto Skeptic," joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about inflation, financial markets, and what happens when banks – both traditional and “shadow” – collapse. We also hear from Harris Kupperman about why “the whole world is going to change.” Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IEtnmu. Watch the full interview with Harris Kupperman and Stephan Clapham here: https://rvtv.io/3O8F0Dt. Learn more ab

Registering yet another 40-year high, the consumer price index for June came in at 9.1% and solidified at least a 75 basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. The Bank of Canada broke the seal on 100 basis points today, and the probability of a similar move by the Federal Reserve spiked after this morning’s inflation report. Whatever the magnitude of its upcoming rate increase, what the Fed has already done will likely put the economy in recession, according to Eric Johnston, and that means earnings are likely to come down. Eric, the head of equity derivatives and cross asset for Cantor Fitzgerald, joins Maggie Lake to talk about why earnings will catalyze the next leg down for equities markets. We also hear from Shawn Hackett about how to trade amid a correction in the commodities market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ayWL0O. Watch the full Interview with Shawn Hackett here: https://rvtv.io/3uJm1Zf. Learn more about your

We’ve yet to see the hard domestic economic data sufficient to support the case that the Federal Reserve will pause its monetary tightening program. Perhaps the June consumer price index, due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET, will be that data. In the meantime, ZEW survey results for July reflect acute concern in Germany about the potential impact of a complete embargo on Russian gas, with the index of economic expectations falling to minus 53.8 from 28.0 in June. Altogether, the euro dropped to a 20-year low versus the U.S. dollar, approaching parity on fear of an energy crisis and a recession. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the implications of euro-dollar parity, when falling crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices will show up in inflation figures, and the complex equation that could end in a global energy crisis. We also take a quick peek at today’s Insider Talks episode with Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden about the

Markets meandered during a mixed Monday session, as investors bide their time ahead of Wednesday’s release of consumer price index data for June. We’re already seeing signs that tighter money is impacting real economic activity in the U.S., with homebuilders reporting steep slowdowns in sales and sharp upticks in cancellations last month. Tighter policy is also encouraging investors seeking safety, putting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, through knock-on effects, draining even more liquidity from global markets. In his most recent note, Michael Howell reported that CrossBorder Capital’s Global Liquidity Index “is still testing a low reading of 29.5” within a range of 0 to 100. “Liquidity matters,” says Howell, CrossBorder Capital’s founder. He believes central banks are making another major error, this hammering too hard on the brake. “The world economy is now in a recession.” Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to discuss the developing “big liquidity squeeze

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management co-founder Jim Rogers joins Harry Melandri for a special episode of The Next Big Trade. Rogers, discussing the possibility of a bear market, notes that he doesn’t have much confidence in the Federal Reserve. He also explains why he sees a lot of value in precious metals and agricultural commodities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Anne Stevenson-Yang, the co-founder and managing principal at J Capital Research, famously predicted the collapse of Evergrande, one of China’s biggest property developers. In China for 25 years, Anne’s been at the epicenter of its rapid economic ascent, in recent years researching opportunities on the long and short side. She joins Maggie Lake to discuss her unique career path, how her team puts together a report, and China’s history of expansion and retreat. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It was already going to be a significant Jobs Friday before the West awoke to news of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, perhaps his country’s most significant postwar leader, certainly its most consequential in the 21st century. U.S. payrolls did grow by 372,000 during June, beating the consensus forecast and pushing pause on talk of an imminent recession. Yields surged and stocks sagged this morning, as investors now anticipate a 75 basis point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets July 26-27. Like other risk assets, Bitcoin is holding its ground in recent trading, tracking toward its best weekly since March. Raoul Pal is here with Maggie to break it all down and put it back together again. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3asy4mL. To view today's charts click here: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20220708204027/20220708_RVDB_Charts.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices