Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a two-month low last week, a sign of sustained labor-market strength ahead of Friday’s release of a nonfarm payroll report for August. U.S Treasury yields are rising, with the two-year touching its highest level since 2007. Mortgage rates are also climbing, reaching a two-month high. And the CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 76% probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. At the same time, some data suggest the Fed’s efforts are having their intended effect – that inflation may indeed have been “transitory.” Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the yield market and the phases of the 2021-23 Fed reaction function. Darius thinks we’re in the third phase, where interest rates will stay higher for longer. So, what comes next? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept it short and sour last Friday, and stocks have fallen in all four trading sessions since he re-announced his hawkishness with authority at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. With traders pricing in a 75-basis-point rate hike in September, the path forward for the U.S. seems a little less fraught than the one facing Europe, where rationing and recession loom in consequence of the continent’s energy crisis. That’s with inflation rising to a fresh record in August and virtually goading the European Central Bank into its own major rate hike when it meets next week. Imran Lakh, the founder and CEO of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about volatility and how to trade it using options. We also hear from Dario Perkins about the short-, medium-, and long-term outlook for bonds amid a time of historic uncertainty. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3KqkvBL. Learn more about your ad c

Did you miss Raoul Pal's Live AMA on YouTube? Well, you're in luck, because today we're releasing the whole thing. Sit back and enjoy a community coming together for a deep conversation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Europe’s energy crisis is getting worse, stoking inflation as well as fear of “conflict and strife” on the continent. Euro-area economic confidence dropped to a 19-month low in August, as France accused Russia of using natural gas as a “weapon of war.” Recent price action suggests investors are pricing in the demand impact on energy markets. Still, with European policymakers desperately seeking long-term solutions, the nuclear option is back on the table. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the energy crisis in Europe, the policy choices that contributed to it, what can be done now to fix things for the future, and how we can trade it. We also hear from Mark Nelson about why nuclear power will save Europe. Watch the full video featuring Mark Nelson and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3cu9tiy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes followed Bitcoin lower at Monday’s open, trading well in the red as investors continued to price in Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s short but stern message that the central bank will tighten monetary policy until inflation is beaten. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note surged to a 15-year high, and we’re now witnessing the deepest inversion between the two-year and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note in more than 20 years. And September – historically the worst month for stocks – is just around the corner. “Tightening should only worsen the potential for a major breakage in credit,” notes Mark Ritchie II, “and the Fed’s refusal to pivot in the short run should produce some more potential fireworks to the downside.” Ritchie II, a managing partner at RTM Capital, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the epic battle brewing between bears and bulls and whether U.S. stocks are going to make another run at the lows. We also hear from Vincent Deluard about the energy crisis in

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. On this riveting episode of The Next Big Trade, Alex Gurevich, the founder and chief investment officer of HonTe Investments, joins host Harry Melandri to explain how he’s playing the long game and why max-duration bonds are his vehicle of choice to ride out prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical crosswinds and a potential global downturn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. James Altucher has been to hell and back. On the morning of September 11, 2001, James was just three blocks away from Ground Zero when two hijacked airplanes flew into the Twin Towers. He was one of the few who witnessed both impacts, and that led to years of post-traumatic stress disorder. He also went broke and lost everything. But he rebounded and found new success. James talks to Maggie Lake about the importance of resilience and open-mindedness when it comes to trading and investing and why he writes down 10 ideas every morning. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke for eight minutes, offered three lessons, and generated one takeaway: “No pivot,” as Jim Bianco tweeted. The central bank will tighten monetary policy “until the job is done,” with Powell essentially promising pain for investors and workers alike. U.S. Treasury yields spiked and equity indexes sagged after the Fed Chair floated his short but stinging statement. Bianco, the founder of Bianco Research, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how far the Fed is willing to go to get what it wants and whether today’s data on July personal income and spending, including a decline in the Fed’s most-favored inflation gauge, is a sign it’s actually happening. Powell foreshadowed tough times, but the Fed and its acolytes have also said a potential recession will be short and shallow. So, is “short and shallow” the new “transitory”? And what in the world is happening in Europe, as German consumer confidence falls t

Did you know the foreign exchange market is the largest in the world, with more than $5 trillion traded every single day? Brent Donnelly, the president of Spectra Markets, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to break down everything that’s happening in forex right now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia surged to near-record highs Wednesday, as the worst energy crisis in decades intensifies amid increasingly desperate competition for supplies. And Europe’s fertilizer crunch tightened after a major manufacturer cut output due to soaring costs – driven by natural gas prices. With twin humanitarian crises looming, Tony Greer tweeted, “Does anyone in Europe have a plan?” Tony, the founder of TG Macro, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about energy, food, and what, if anything, all those central bankers gathering for the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium can do to stave off a global catastrophe. We also hear from Adrian Day about “Dr. Copper” and what its supply-and-demand dynamic can tell us about economic growth. Watch the full video featuring Adrian Day and Larry McDonald here: https://rvtv.io/3dZ9N9n. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Record-high temperatures and a severe drought in west-central China has crippled hydropower generation and prompted the shutdown of many factories in the latest blow to a Chinese economy already weighed down by stagnant consumer spending and a deeply troubled real estate market. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan will re-start more idled nuclear plants and look at developing next-generation reactors to stabilize the island nation’s energy supply. Real Vision’s man on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what trouble in the East means for the West and how it’s playing out in forex markets. Then, Katie Stockton, the founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, joins Maggie to share a technical view of the market, including key levels for the S&P 500, energy commodities, and the U.S. dollar. We also hear from Michael Howell, the founder of CrossBorder Capital, on the dollar and what its movement tells us about global liq

The euro has broken below parity with the dollar, hitting a two-decade low on Tuesday amid multiple exigent crises that threaten not just growth but continental order. And the yuan has weakened to a two-year low against the buck, as Chinese authorities struggle to sustain growth amid a major housing market downturn. Traders see no bottom in sight for either currency, as China’s slowdown makes Europe’s troubles that much worse in a feedback loop with global implications. As we near the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Thursday, it’s fair to question what the Federal Reserve can do in a world where power prices in Germany reach the rough equivalent of crude oil at $1,000 per barrel. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about that as well as what a strong dollar means for financial markets and the global economy. We also hear from Michael Howell, the founder of CrossBorder Capital, on tightening liquidity and what it means for equity markets. Watch

U.S. equity indexes opened deep in the red and traded lower through the day, as investors price in “risk off” signals emerging everywhere from China to Germany and anticipate a big week of news from the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. As Weston Nakamura notes, today’s price action was foretold last Friday, when the Peoples Bank of China stepped in to defend the Chinese yuan. Prices of risk assets everywhere – including Bitcoin – began to retreat. Now we have more signs the European energy crisis is deepening, with natural gas prices surging on a new round of “maintenance” on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. Weston joins Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the seemingly rapid shift to a “risk off” tone, signals from the forex market, this energy crisis, and how to trade this kind of action. We also hear from Santiago Capital CEO Brent Johnson about the relationship between pegged and un-pegged currencies. Watch the full video featuring Francis "T

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Aksel Kibar, the managing director of Tech Charts Research & Trading, is a Chartered Market Technician with more than 15 years of experience as a classical trader and global equity market analyst. Aksel joins Harry Melandri for this week’s episode of The Next Big Trade to talk about the power of technical analysis and how reading charts can help you find your next big trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Harry Melandri’s life has been both unconventional and exhilarating. He’s worked at some of the world’s premier financial institutions, including UBS and Deutsche Bank, and he also spent time at the Bank of England. Harry joins Maggie Lake to share stories from his remarkable career and the lessons he learned a long the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard isn’t ready to say inflation has peaked and at this point leans toward a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next month. The central bank is fighting back against a market that’s already pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2023. But here’s the best way to think about when the Fed might “pivot,” according to Jared Dillian: “Remember, they don’t hike until things are cool. They hike until something breaks.” And there’s the political angle too: “Remember, the Fed still has to be seen doing something about inflation.” Jared joins Maggie Lake to talk about inflation in its domestic and global guises, what central banks can and will do to fight it, and whether we might be too bearish given all the bad news that’s already out there. We also hear from Rob Arnott about Wall Street inflation expectations and what, exactly, is fueling them. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO. Learn mor

The Nasdaq Composite is leading the major U.S. equity indexes higher today, as investors step into a tech-stock dip amid the traditional late summer volume lull. At the top of today’s Daily Briefing, Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen gets right to the point with Hedge Fund Telemetry founder Thomas Thornton: Who’s buying this tech dip? Scaling out from recent price action and a broader discussion of positioning, Andreas and Tommy talk about current economic data, including a decline in initial claims for unemployment benefits and an upside surprise from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly manufacturing index for August. Andreas also asks Tommy about what looks like a pump-and-dump of Bed Bath & Beyond shares. And we hear from Rob Arnott about the risks of betting against bubbles. Watch the full video featuring Rob Arnott and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QG02LO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Although the decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points was unanimous, minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show multiple officials acknowledged a risk that the central bank could tighten “by more than necessary” in its effort to control inflation. Officials also observed that the bulk of tightening effects have yet to be felt, noting that unemployment would likely rise from here. Underscoring the global nature of this inflation phenomenon, the U.K. Consumer Price Index surged to a 40-year high of 10.1% in July. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the FOMC minutes, what recent data, including U.S. retail sales, suggest about the Fed’s future path, and the worrying stagflationary signs from overseas. We also hear from Roger Hirst about what the CPI and interest rates can tell us about a recession. Watch the entire episode of Insider Talks featuring Roger Hirst here: https://rvtv.io/3wbmO5K. Learn more about

U.S. equity indexes continue to go higher despite accumulating evidence of slowing domestic and international economic activity and rising pressure on people and government in Europe and elsewhere due to energy and food shortages. The situation has grown particularly acute in Germany, where sentiment continues to slide amid drastically reduced natural gas supplies and a historic drought. Authorities there are reversing policy to keep at least three nuclear reactors running and supplying baseload power, as feelings about the once-verboten technology shift amid a resource-strangling war in Eastern Europe. Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, to talk about what energy markets are saying about global growth. We also hear from Wouter Jongbloed on the broader context and potential implications of Europe’s energy crisis. Watch the full interview with Wouter Jongbloed and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3A4B95n. Learn more about your ad choice

The People’s Bank of China got the week started with surprise rate cuts on domestic growth concerns, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey on general business conditions for August registered its second-biggest slide since 2001, and the National Association of Home Buyers/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined for the eighth straight month. But all three major U.S. equity indexes were higher heading into the close, as Treasury yields continued to drift lower. Perhaps investors anticipate a Federal Reserve pivot. Perhaps they’re pricing in a selloff in crude oil. Has the larger trend shifted? “We have NEVER seen a time in history like this,” tweeted Michael Gayed in July, “where a significant drawdown in Treasuries matched a significant drawdown in stocks (which may not be over).” Gayed, the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about stocks, bonds, and the rising risk of demand destruction because of Fed rate hikes just as