Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

The S&P 500 was on its way to a fifth consecutive “decision day” gain this afternoon – until a unanimous Federal Open Market Committee confirmed the market’s 100%-priced-in expectation of a 75-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate target range but firmly underscored its hawkish tone. Stocks turned red and yields surged at 2:00 p.m. ET, as the FOMC’s “dot plot” suggested another 125 basis points of rate hikes over its last two meetings in 2022 and further tightening well into 2023. Reiterating that it’s “highly attentive to inflation risks” and that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” the Fed also lowered its growth forecast for the year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about Fed policy – looking back and going forward – and what it means for risk assets. We also hear from Thomas Hoenig, who led the Kansas City Fed for 20 years, about the risks “quantitative tightening” presents to the

The Federal Reserve is just one of 16 central banks making interest-rate decisions this week, but it is the most widely watched monetary policy body in the world. And its current path – errant though it may be – is having a profound effect on the global economy by pushing up the U.S. dollar. The most recent data on the U.S. housing market surprised to the upside, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. “I like that we got wildly positive homebuilder data,” tweeted Tony Greer today, “but the sector is still trading like it’s petrified of higher yields.” Tony, the founder and CEO of TG Macro, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action in key corners of the market, notably energy, as well as what he expects from the Federal Reserve tomorrow. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about what this week’s abundance of central bank activity means for financial markets and economic growth. Watch the full video featuring Weston Nakamura here: https://rvtv.io/3SmmDNU. Learn more about y

All three major U.S. equity indexes were essentially flat at the halfway point of Monday’s trading session, with attention squarely focused on the outcome of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As a 75-basis-point rate hike is a foregone conclusion, the main event will be Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Incoming data continue to suggest the economy is slowing, highlighted by a rapidly cooling housing market. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to preview this week’s central bank action. We also hear from Thomas Hoening, the longest-serving Fed president in U.S. history, about how risks posed by monetary tightening – i.e., rising unemployment – will test Powell’s resolve. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://rvtv.io/3qPyEQ3. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Warren Pies is overweight energy for multiple reasons. The founder of 3Fourteen Research joins Harry Melandri to make the bullish case for everything related to hydrocarbon extraction, production, and delivery to market, citing years of poor management and negative cash flow as the primary reasons the sector was discounted. Warren explains why high-quality energy stocks should have a place in any long-term portfolio – and he notes that some housing exposure might be a good idea right now too. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Andrew Rosener has always had an entrepreneurial spirit. As the founder and CEO of Media Options – the No. 1 media domain brokerage in the world – he’s responsible for some of the largest domain sales in history. In a captivating conversation, Andrew talks to Maggie Lake about how he’s remained at the tip of the spear in the digital asset realm. He also shares his worst trade and how he’s come to terms with a $1.9 billion loss. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

FedEx withdrew forward earnings guidance and CEO Raj Subramaniam warned of a “worldwide recession” on Friday, sounding another “risk off” signal and sending all three major U.S. indexes to declines of at least 1% two hours ahead of Friday’s close. Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how a “worldwide recession” would impact particular asset classes, with an emphasis on energy. Warren explains the structural factors that make high-quality names related to crude oil and natural gas potential outperformers – even in an environment of “dramatic disinflation.” We also have a preview of an upcoming My Life in 4 Trades podcast featuring Bill Browder, who talks about Vladimir Putin, what comes next in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and why it’s going to go on for some time longer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes traded mixed Thursday, as investors priced in murky economic data and the reality that Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve shall not pivot from its inflation-fighting stance. “We think the CPI report was very important for the market,” said Eric Johnston, the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald. “It showed that inflation does not magically come down and you can’t get it under control with a soft landing, an unemployment rate below 4%, and the S&P 500 at 4,000.” Eric joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why equities are holding up so well with global growth increasingly impaired and financial conditions more and more restrictive. Eric and Andreas also discuss key levels for major asset classes and positioning dynamics amid the many prevailing global geopolitical-macroeconomic crosscurrents. We also hear from Jason Trennert about the structural factors that will keep inflation higher for longer. Watch the ful

Markets achieved a relative calm today following yesterday’s steep sell-off, as investors continued to process hotter-than-expected August Consumer Price Index data and priced in expectations-meeting Producer Price Index data. What we have now, as Darius Dale sees it, is the transition from the Federal Reserve pushing back on “pivot” expectations to market participants accepting the implications of a single-mandate central bank: a downturn in the global liquidity cycle. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what that means for prices of risk assets, including equities, crude oil, and Bitcoin. The key question, of course, is this: Where can we hide from what appears to be an imminent bear-market rout? We also hear from Peter Boockvar about what a strong U.S. dollar means to various market constituents. Watch the complete conversation between Peter Boockvar and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. Learn more about your ad choices. Visi

The Nasdaq Composite led equity indexes to the downside, Bitcoin followed suit in the crypto market, and the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note spiked in the aftermath of this morning’s release of Consumer Price Index data for August. Expectations-beating 8.3% annual and 0.1% monthly readings all but guarantee the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a third straight 75-basis-point rate hike following its meeting next week. The question is, is it time to talk about 100 basis points? And how do we position our portfolios should the Fed get even more hawkish? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, to talk about inflation, the Fed, and portfolio positioning in this environment. We also hear from Peter Boockvar about the impact on company earnings of higher energy and other input costs. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Peter Boockvar here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The New York Federal Reserve’s monthly consumer survey showed expectations for inflation over the next 12 months declined to 5.75% in August from 6.2% in July, as investors await Tuesday’s release of Consumer Price Index data for more clues about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Gordon Johnson, the founder of GLJ Research, joins Maggie Lake to talk about how the Federal Reserve will interpret recent inflation data in the broader global economic context. With stocks on the rise, yields on the decline, and the inflation genie seemingly on its way back into the bottle, are things really getting better? We also hear from Mike Novogratz, who was live at the SALT Conference in New York City, about opportunities that are sure to emerge over the next three to five years amid a shifting macro landscape. We apologize for the abbreviated episode, as we were dealing with technical issues that caused it to be cut short. We’ve resolved those issues, and we hope to get Gordon Johnson back on the Daily Briefing soon t

Marin Katusa has made a fortune investing in natural resources. He's also arranged more than $2 billion in deal financing in the sector and written the New York Times best-seller book “The Colder War” and the Amazon.com best-seller “The Rise of America.” In this fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade, Marin explains to Harry Melandri why the rule of law in relevant jurisdictions is critical for successful natural resource investing and identifies the uranium, carbon, and gold companies in which he’s invested. ** Transparency is of utmost importance to Real Vision and as such the disclosure from today guest, Marin Katusa, includes his position as co-chair of the board of directors of Carbon Royalty Corp. He’s also one of the largest individual shareholders of Carbon Streaming Corp ($OFSTF). Marin arranged financing for and is a shareholder of Uranium Royalty Corp ($UROY). He’s a shareholder of Uranium Energy Corp ($UEC). He’s a large shareholder of Osisko Development Corp ($ODV), and his wife sits on the Os

Dr. Pippa Malmgren is a world-renowned economist and a former advisor to President George W. Bush. She uses her background in geopolitics to spot what's coming next, including the 2007 Global Financial Crisis, President Trump's election, and the return of inflation. On this special episode of My Life in Four Trades, Pippa talks to Real Vision’s Samuel Burke about the power of storytelling and how she acts as a bridge between investors and lawmakers. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

If we understand the macro through what the major equity indexes and more modern indicators such as Bitcoin and Ethereum tell us, then, at least for today, it’s all good. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, with a 2% gain heading into the last two hours of the trading week. With recent price action reflecting a “risk on” mood heading into the weekend, Michele “Mish” Schneider, the author of “Plant Your Money Tree,” joins Maggie Lake to talk about key levels for stocks, bonds, crypto and the dollar. Mish also shares critical information about hot sectors such as solar and EVs, emerging markets and trends, and the all-important commodity sector. What’s peaking right now, and what’s not? Mish and Maggie will answer that question and any others you’d like to ask – please share yours in the chat! Follow along with todays charts here: https://rvtv.io/3BuA7Br Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held competing public appearances this morning, as the ECB announced its biggest-ever interest-rate increase and the Fed doubled down on its commitment to fighting inflation. Lagarde’s message was more mixed, however, with higher borrowing costs only increasing the risk of recession in Europe. “We have calls like this for people freezing to death and a sovereign debt crisis, and I’m like, ‘I think they’re going to figure it out’,” wrote Jared Dillian in a recent issue of The Daily DirtNap. “I’m not saying there will be a good solution, only that there will be a solution.” Jared joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing for an assessment of Europe’s crises. Then, Andreas welcomes Weston Nakamura to talk about central banks, the forex market, and the rising probability of Japanese yen intervention. We also hear from Josh Young about why energy is the most compelling area of the market right now and ho

The European Central Bank is expected to announce another 75-basis-point rate hike following its meeting tomorrow, even as the euro weakens against the U.S. dollar and authorities on the continent contend with an escalating energy crisis. Equity markets remain highly attuned to what central bankers say, with the major U.S. indexes bouncing on comments by Fed Governor Lael Brainard. “It seems the bond market is already pricing in a positive revision to the Fed’s inflation target,” tweeteds Darius Dale. “An outcome that may become reality towards the end of this tightening cycle.” Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about competing priorities for fiscal and monetary authorities, August PMI prints, supply-chain disruptions, and disinflation and inflation expectations compared to the Fed’s “price stability” mandate. We also hear from Emil Kalinowski about why European policymakers must backstop private lending in this escalating crisis. Watch the full video fe

The Institute for Supply Management reported today that its services index ticked up to 56.9 in August from 56.7 in July, expanding for the 27th consecutive month and catalyzing a “good news is bad news” leg of the recent equity selloff. It looks like investors are pricing in a higher probability of a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in two weeks. The U.S. dollar is pushing out to multi-decade highs against multiple counterparts, including the Japanese yen and the euro. And the greenback is at all-time highs against the British pound, as the new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss steps into Number 10 as well as a raging energy crisis. And with the People’s Bank of China taking more aggressive steps to defend the yuan against depreciation, now is a good time to understand what’s happening in foreign exchange markets. Weston Nakamura, Real Vision’s man on the ground in Asia, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what we can learn from forex, perhaps the purest market on the planet. Lea

With a population of nearly 1.5 billion, an average age of 28, and a rapidly growing economy, India is a country we all should be following. Capitalmind CEO Deepak Shenoy joins Ash Bennington to talk about the innovation happening across one of the world’s most vibrant places. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We had so much great content from our episode with Alex Gurevich we had to release it into two parts. In this installment, Alex establishes his meta rules for trading and explains his current views on foreign exchange and global equities markets. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michael Venuto, a co-founder and the chief investment officer of Toroso Investments, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what he learned during his chaotic stretch on the New York Stock Exchange, how he got burned trading Royal Caribbean options in 2009, and why blockchain-traded funds will eventually replace ETFs. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a 370-point gain and turned red this afternoon, as investors appeared to abandon equities ahead of the long Labor Day weekend. This morning’s “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report provided an initial lift on hope there was foundation for a 50 as opposed to a 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets September 20-21. And then there’s the crude oil question – as in, is that critical commodity getting ready for another run higher? With the G-7 discussing a price cap on Russian oil, Vladimir Putin saying he won’t sell to nations that agree to it, and Saudi Arabia weighing production cuts, Maggie Lake welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about "black gold," volatility, and things that could make what is, historically, the worst month for the stock market particularly catastrophic this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices