Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Todd Edgar was once one of Wall Street’s star proprietary traders. Before he started Atreaus Family in 2019, he worked for some of the biggest houses in investment banking. In this episode of My Life In Four Trades, Todd shares the critical lessons he’s learned over nearly three decades in financial markets, explaining to Maggie Lake how “naïve optimism” helped shape his entrepreneurial mindset and why embracing lifelong learning is the key to success. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes were mixed heading into the final two hours of the trading week, a fitting close as investors continue to struggle with data that suggest inflation has peaked and a Federal Reserve that, at least in public word, seems as hawkish as ever. “On November 10, 2022, inflation died,” Warren Pies writes in the most recent note from 3Fourteen Research. “And, despite our view that inflation is going to decelerate quickly over the coming year, there are still risks that could resurrect the beast.” Is the U.S. leading the way lower, or will inflation flare again? Warren joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why bonds are the place to be and equities are at the top end of their range. We also hear from Kokou Agbo-Bloua, the Global Head of Economics at Societe Generale, about the ongoing transition from a lower-for-longer to a higher-for-longer rate environment. Watch the full conversation between Kokou Agbo-Bloua and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3UPnZSG. Learn mor

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked and equity indexes sagged Thursday, as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the Federal Reserve still has a lot of work to do before it brings inflation under control. That follows San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s remark on Wednesday that a pause in rate hikes was “off the table.” Meanwhile, the United Nations has brokered a deal that will get Ukrainian grain transiting the Black Sea safely, easing pressure on global food prices, and China’s COVID policy remains as opaque as ever. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, to interpret recent Fedspeak and to talk about what’s happening in commodities markets. We also hear from Juliette Declercq about how the Federal Reserve can navigate a soft landing and why she’s focused on U.S. equities. Watch the full conversation between Juliette Declercq and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3AoHkSt. Learn more about your a

U.S. retail sales were up more than expected in October, posting the biggest month-over-month gain since February, but equity indexes struggled after Target posted disappointing third-quarter results and warned of a soft fourth quarter too. The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield declined, though the two-year/10-year curve inversion deepened on expectations the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary course. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool currently shows 4.4% fourth-quarter growth. Marc Chandler, the managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex would take issue with that forecast: “The US economy is expected to struggle under the weight of past monetary tightening,” he notes, “and what we do not appreciate is the extent of fiscal tightening.” Marc joins Maggie Lake to talk about the big picture, how it’s reflected in currency pairs and global yields, what we should expect from the Federal Reserve, and why we should be skeptical of China. We also hear from Roger Hirst about the broader implications of

Softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index data for October reinforced the hope that inflationary pressures are finally beginning to ease and fired a strong open for equities Tuesday morning. “Be patient,” advises Dale Pinkert, “and wait for pullbacks.” Pinkert, the head of trader development at TradeGateHub, joins Maggie Lake to talk about whether the trend has changed for the U.S. dollar and key levels to watch for the euro, precious metals, and soft commodities. We also hear from Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group about the technical indicators that guide his trading day. Watch the full conversation between Dave Floyd and James Helliwell here: rvtv.io/3AiGXJi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes drifted into mildly positive territory two hours shy of Monday’s close, continuing to digest October’s Consumer Price Index data, relatively dovish words from Federal Reserve insiders, and the still-unraveling FTX situation. With inflation seeming to ebb as a global concern, President Joe Biden is in Bali for his first face-to-face meeting with President Xi Jinping. “I continue to maintain that China is a significant risk for global investors,” notes Komal Sri-Kumar. “That goes for both investors in that country as well as for global markets in general.” The founder and president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies joins Weston Nakamura to talk about consequences of too-rapid a transition from overly accommodative to overly restrictive monetary policy and what comes next for the economy. We also hear from performance coach Denise Shull of The Rethink Group about how to manage emotion and maximize effective decision-making in high-stress situations. Watch the full conversation between Denise Shu

Justin Huhn, the founder of Uranium Insider, joins Harry Melandri for a compelling conversation about the resurgence of nuclear as a baseload power option and rising demand for uranium in the latest episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Anthony Scaramucci has worked in two of the most pressure-driven environments in America – investment banking at Goldman Sachs and the communications shop in the White House during the Trump administration. And he’s seen and experienced all sorts of success and failure. In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, the founder and co-managing partner of SkyBridge Capital and chairman of the SALT Conference shares with Maggie Lake how his humble upbringing shaped his career and what it taught him about the value of authenticity. **NOTE - This interview was recorded on October 10th, 2022** Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It appears that inflation finally eased last month, as the rate of underlying price increases excluding energy and food slowed from a 40-year high. And U.S. stocks are staging their biggest rally since 2020. Weston Nakamura welcomes Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to break down October Consumer Price Index data and provide some context for today’s “melt-up.” Then, Weston and CrossBorder Capital CEO Michael Howell assess the broader investing climate, including the key issue driving price action: liquidity. “The next few months will be challenging,” Howell wrote in his most recent note to clients, “as recession hits earnings and central banks raise rates further.” Michael and Ash Bennington discuss “Everything You Need To Know About Liquidity” here: rvtv.io/3Eo5wah. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“We live in a world where the price of every key asset in the world is in U.S. dollars,” notes Darius Dale at the top of a recent tweet-thread explaining specifically what’s happening with crippled crypto exchange FTX and generally what happens during liquidity crunches. Meanwhile, Chinese economic data continue to deteriorate, despite low interest rates and high savings rates. Real Vision Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura welcomes Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the contagion potential of the FTX debacle, China’s liquidity trap, the global macro environment, and actionable signals on today’s Daily Briefing. We also share a clip from Jim Bianco’s appearance on today’s Real Vision Crypto Daily Briefing about the still-developing FTX story, with an emphasis on trust and centralization versus decentralization. Check out today’s Crypto Daily Briefing here: https://rvtv.io/3thr8yt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes surged early on Election Day but sagged heading into the last two hours of trading, rising perhaps in anticipation of a market-friendly divided government in Washington D.C. Gold rallied as well, a sign that investors may have some concerns about Republican promises to hold the line against future debt-ceiling increases without cuts to entitlement programs. And then there’s the fact that the second-largest crypto exchange in the world teetered on the edge of collapse before being rescued by its main competitor – is this a sign that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s aims are coming true? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Jared Dillian, the editor of the Daily Dirtnap, to sort out today’s price action. And Ash Bennington joins the conversation for an update on Binance’s acquisition of FTX. Be sure to watch today’s Real Vision Crypto Daily Briefing here: https://rvtv.io/ftxbinance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes held modest gains at midday Monday, as investors prepare for midterm elections with particularly global potential consequences. Andreas Sten Larsen goes around the world with Jacob Shapiro, the founder and chief strategist at Perch Perspectives, for briefings on the major geopolitical issues and their impact on financial markets, including Europe’s energy crisis, China’s reopening, and America’s elections. We also hear from Alexander Stahel, the founder and chief investment officer of Burggraben Holding AG, about the multiple challenges that will combine to extend Europe’s energy crisis into and beyond 2023. Watch the full conversation featuring Alexander Stahel and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3WzREk0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Luke Gromen, the founder and president of Forest for the Trees, is a highly respected voice in the global macroeconomic research community. Luke joins Harry Melandri to explain why he’s long energy. He also talks about major shifts in global trade and volatility in the sovereign debt market on another captivating episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chris Sullivan, a portfolio manager of Hyperion Decimus, transitioned from traditional finance to crypto – and he says it’s the best move of his career. A lot of that has to do with crypto’s freek-market system, where bailouts are not an option. Chris explains how that cutthroat culture has attracted – and continues to attract – some of the best minds in the world. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. stocks opened higher but drifted lower through the trading day, digesting an October nonfarm payrolls report that showed a still-strong labor market in the aftermath of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s forceful rejection of “pivot” talk earlier this week and ahead of crucial midterm elections next week. Traders are now pricing in a 5.25% peak policy rate via the June 2023 swap contract. “I don’t think this changes anything in the Fed’s calculation,” noted Peter Boockvar in response to the jobs report, “but I do believe the trend in the unemployment rate is now going higher and will be 4%-plus soon.” Boockvar, the chief investment officer of Bleakly Advisory Group, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about when the Fed might finally change, or at least pause, its current policy path and the implications of Tuesday’s voting in the U.S. We also hear from Alexander Stahel about why U.S. immunity to the global energy crisis is an illusion. Watch the full conversation featuring A

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike, and Chair Jerome Powell aggressively pushed back against any thoughts of a “pivot.” Today, the Bank of England followed the Fed with its own 75-basis-point rate hike, even as it warned what would be the country’s longest recession ever has already started and will continue through 2023 and into 2024. The dollar is strengthening against the pound again, though the prospect of a “soft landing” stateside seems to be growing more and more remote. “The world is confronted with many new threats,” writes Vincent Deluard in his most recent newsletter, “and the next twelve months feel abnormally uncertain.” Deluard, the Director of Global Macro Strategy at Stone X, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent moves by central banks, his 2023 outlook, and his “Holy Trinity” picks for this market. We also hear from Andreas Steno Larsen about the natural gas supply situation in Europe this heating season and, m

The Federal Open Market Committee added a couple of interesting phrases to its policy statement announcing a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point interest-rate increase, noting that it will take into account time lags and the impact of cumulative tightening during future meetings. In his post-FOMC-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the centrality of price stability to sustained economic growth, acknowledged data indicating the U.S. economy is slowing, and noted the continuing strength of a still “out-of-balance” labor market. George Goncalves, the head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about whether the FOMC statement was neutral, hawkish, or dovish, overall liquidity heading into the end of the year, and why we need to keep an eye on overseas markets. We also hear from Jesse Felder, the author of The Felder Report, about why we face a period of elevated inflation and what investments will work in such an environment. Watch the full int

Chinese stocks and the yuan rallied on unconfirmed reports authorities have formed a committee to reconsider China’s “COVID zero” restrictions on economic activity. There was no follow-through in the U.S., though, as investors remain focused on Wednesday and the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy decision. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what impact a reopening of the Chinese economy China will have on global commodity markets and how to position for potential upside. We also hear from Jesse Felder, author of The Felder Report, about how changing investment patterns will impact the technology and energy sectors. Watch the full interview between Jesse Felder and Maggie Lake here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-inflation/videos/there-wont-be-a-crash-but-drpj?tab=details.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“This should be fun,” tweeted Doomberg amid reports President Joe Biden will propose a “windfall tax” on profits of oil and gas producers, as political leaders continue to pose against the global energy problem. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes the congenitally acerbic and always insightful Green Chicken for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about realistic solutions to a situation that only seems to be growing worse by the day – with inflation yet to peak and still more resource-scarcity promised by Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. We also hear from White Tundra Investments CEO Shubham Garg, who shares his reasoning for exponential growth in global oil demand. Watch Shubham Garg’s complete presentation here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/3-ideas/videos/where-to-pick-in-canadas-energy-patch-LwzQ?tab=details.  THIS IS THE FINAL DAY OF REAL VISION’S “CRASH CAMPAIGN” DISCOUNTS! Head over to www.realvision.com/crashpricing to subscribe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adc

Which economic indicator is the most reliable for confirming we’re in a crisis? According to Verdad Capital founder and portfolio manager Dan Rasmussen, it’s high-yield spreads. Identifying the key relationships across the globe isn’t hard. Formulating an approach that surfaces alpha when spreads spike is where it gets difficult. Per Rasmussen, the best way to act in such environments is through small-value equities. Rasmussen explains why it makes sense and how to time the trade in a captivating episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices