Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points today. It was a seventh consecutive rate hike from the Fed, four straight three-quarter point hikes. Markets moved lower in response to the expected lower increase, as forecasts now show a higher terminal interest rate later in 2023. Meanwhile, the U.K. inflation rate eased from a 41-year high in November. On today’s Daily Briefing, Darius Dale of 42 Macro joins Andreas Steno Larsen to break down what the Fed’s hike --- and the potential of deflation setting in --- means for asset classes in 2023. We’ll also be joined by Real Vision macro expert James Helliwell to discuss today’s U.K. Inflation data and what it means for the Bank of England’s rate hike decision tomorrow. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks surged this morning after cooler-than-expected inflation data showed that consumer prices in November rose at the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% from the prior month and 7.1% year-over-year, down sharply from 7.7% YoY in October. But by noon ET, stocks erased all gains and now appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow’s Fed rate decision. Is deflation starting to do some work for the Federal Reserve? Or will Fed Chair Jerome Powell & Co. keep hiking interest rates into a recession? On today’s Daily Briefing, Ash Bennington is joined by Real Vision senior markets editor Andreas Steno Larsen and Tony Greer of the Morning Navigator to discuss what various asset classes are signaling about inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing, Bilal Hafeez, the CEO of MacroHive, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for a discussion on the upcoming Fed decision and what ripple effects it could have on the global economy. The market is pricing in a drop in inflation ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print, but will that signal a green light for investors? Plus, we’ll also hear from expert Fed watcher Joseph Wang on why a recession won’t be as bad as many people think, and why inflation should be our main concern. Watch the full interview here: https://rvtv.io/3FmKPL9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stocks are relatively flat while treasury yields moved higher following an upside surprise in U.S. PPI this morning. Producer prices rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, above market forecasts of 0.2%. In today’s show, Maggie Lake is joined by Spectra Markets’ president Brent Donnelly to help us understand the latest inflation data and what it means for next week’s Federal funds rate announcement. Plus, Brent will share some insights on trader positioning from his firm’s 2023 Q1 consensus survey. Shocker… everybody’s bearish. We also hear from Former Hedge Fund Manager Russell Clark on why we are looking at macro all wrong. Watch the full interview here: https://rvtv.io/3FELx7C Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. jobless claims this morning rose to their highest level since February. Meanwhile, China’s outbound shipments plunged 8.7% year-over-year and Hong Kong stocks rose 3% as the financial hub considers easing up on covid lockdowns. On today’s show, Maggie Lake sits down with Taimur Baig, the Chief Economist of Singapore-based bank DBS, to discuss the mixed economic data from around the world, and hear why Taimur believes the global economy could be setting up for a promising recovery. We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Price action continues to reflect investors’ collective ambivalence about what comes next, with Wall Street warning of grim prospects for both stocks and growth in 2023. As Jason De Sena Trennert sees it, the “greatest risk to the economy and markets may be the Fed’s need to tighten more than risk markets anticipate.” That crude oil is probing near-term lows even as China eases some “COVID zero” restrictions is just one point of confusion. Trennert, the founder and CEO of Strategas Securities, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to break down what crude oil and other key markets are telling us right now, how inflation will become “sticky,” and why the Federal Reserve will have to go higher for longer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. equity sell-off extended to a fourth straight trading session today, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite again led to the downside with a 2.18% loss two hours ahead of the close. Meta Platforms is under regulatory scrutiny in the European Union, Apple is contending with supply-chain restructuring, and Tesla faces stiffening competition amid its CEO’s social media dabbling. And job cuts across the broad tech sector suggest we may be witnessing the end of an era. Maggie Lake welcomes Eric Jackson, the founder of EMJ Capital, to talk about what’s happening with big tech – and to distinguish it from growth tech. We also hear from Whitney Baker, the founder of Totem Macro, about the challenges of building more robust supply chains. Watch the full conversation between Whitney Baker and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/perform. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of services activity rose to 56.5 last month from 54.4 in October, surprising to the upside and stirring fresh worry the Federal Reserve will continue to err on the hawkish side when it comes to monetary policy. The major U.S. equity indexes all sagged more than 1%, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shedding 2.13% two hours ahead of the close. Crude oil climbed, however, as a G7 price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian production kicked in and China inched closer to re-opening its economy. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the global crude oil market, the shift back to “services” from “goods” as the pandemic recedes into memory, and the durability of demand. Later, Maggie welcomes Jeff Meyers, the CEO of Cobia Capital Management, to talk about emerging opportunities in small-cap technology names. We also hear from Diego Parilla about a new paradigm based on higher inflation, permanent volatility, and elevated

It’s already been a tough, strange 11 months for everyone – and 2022’s not over yet. On a weekly interval basis, the S&P 500 has been in the red for more than 60% of the year. Treasuries have gone through multiple, nasty downturns and haven’t exactly performed counter to traditional risk assets. How much longer will this bear last? Are there any signs of hope? Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at Tidal Investment Group and the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Harry Melandri to break it all down on another fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, the founder and chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital and the author of the “Adventures in Capitalism” blog, has been investing for more than two decades. You don’t survive that long in financial markets without accruing some success. Kuppy joins Maggie Lake to discuss his approach to trend-following and event-driven investing, with illustrations from the early days of COVID-19 about minimizing risk and maximizing profit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Equity futures sagged this morning with the release of a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for November, as both the pace of new hiring and wage growth suggested inflation is more than a matter of snarled supply chains and a European war. Cem Karsan, the founder of Kai Volatility Advisors, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to assess the implications of persistent U.S. labor market strength. We also hear from Whitney Baker on why a recession is the only thing that will stunt consumption and thus slow inflation. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Whitney Baker here: rvtv.io/3VIFnbU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Institute of Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing activity declined for the fifth month out of the last six in November and slipped below 50 for the first time since May 2020, another sign that growth is slowing in the U.S. As investors look forward to Friday’s jobs report, initial claims for unemployment insurance reached 1.6 million during the week ended Nov. 19, the highest level in a year. Weston Nakamura welcomes Daniel Lacalle, the chief economist at Tressis, to talk about growth in the U.S. and abroad as central bankers continue to strike appropriate policy responses. We also hear from Geo Chen, the author of the Fidenza Macro blog, who explains why whoever replaces Haruhiko Kuroda as the governor of the Bank of Japan will be forced to hike rates sooner rather than later. Watch Geo Chen’s full presentation here: https://rvtv.io/3H0XR36. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes surged into positive territory as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Wednesday on his acknowledgement that the “time for moderating” interest-rate increases “may come as soon as December.” The market seized on the step-down from 75 basis points to 50 rather than Powell’s codicils: the rate peak is likely “somewhat higher” than the Fed’s September forecast, and there’s a long way to go to restore price stability. In addition to more restrictive monetary policy, Powell noted the critical importance of labor market balance among the macro conditions the Fed wants to see before it’ll say inflation is whipped. Dave Lauer, the CEO of Urvin Finance, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the market’s reaction to Powell’s speech, recent economic data, and the implications of a “sustained period of below-trend growth” that gets us back to price stability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura visits the WTFinance podcast to share with host Anthony Fatseas his unconventional path to a career in markets and to explain his unique methods of analyzing price action. Weston and Anthony also talk about why the Bank of Japan is the most influential central bank of our time and a potential catalyst for further bond market volatility. Watch the video at https://www.youtube.com/@WTFinancepodcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equities were mixed-to-negative heading into Tuesday’s close, as investors remain cautious ahead of Friday’s release of the November jobs report. Chinese authorities seem to have stifled “Zero COVID” protests, as concerns about growth in the world’s second-largest economy persist. Crude oil prices have stabilized today, with the generic front-month futures contract trading around the historically significant $75 per barrel level. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action, the energy trade, and why in the world the Netherlands has agreed to basically destroy 3,000 working farms and what impact the move will have on global food markets. We also hear from Real Vision macro analyst Michael Coolbaugh, who makes the bearish case for crude oil heading into 2023. Watch the entire conversation between Michael Coolbaugh and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3Uc9uHr. Learn more a

Historic protests over the weekend have pushed President Xi Jinping into perhaps the most uncomfortable position of his tenure, as China’s continuing struggle with COVID-19 restrictions weighed on market sentiment ahead of Monday’s open. All three major U.S. equity indexes were down more than 1% heading into the close, while investors sought safety in government bonds. Already skeptical of the recent rally, in his most recent research note Tavi Costa shared ample evidence a recession is imminent. Tavi, a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to assess the global implications of growing domestic unrest over China’s lockdowns, to explain why we should be paying attention to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and to identify a potentially highly profitable macro trade for the next two years. We also hear from Victor Shih about the future of China’s relationship with the rest of the world. Watch the full conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake here: rvtv.io/3W0wYB

Markets held modest gains late Wednesday, as minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee suggest monetary tightening will continue, though at a less intense pace, and the policy interest rate may even reach a higher terminal level than initially forecast. That’s as more and more indicators point to slowing growth in the U.S. At the same time, data from Europe suggest things may not be as dire as once feared. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Weston Nakamura to talk about central bankers, markets, and the economy (perhaps a little World Cup, too) in the middle of a holiday-shortened trading week in the U.S. Andreas and Weston assess near-term price action in the broader macro context — and separate the hawks from the doves just ahead of Turkey Day. We also hear from Jamie McDonald about position-sizing, portfolio management, and the importance of process in a complex macro environment. Watch the complete “We Got the Message” episode featuring Jamie McDonald here: https://rvtv.io/3F5Tt

All three major U.S. equity indexes were up about 1% heading into Tuesday’s close, rallying on light volume as investors look forward to a long holiday weekend with hope the Federal Reserve will soon ease off the monetary tightening. That’s even with sentiment indicators like the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey showing a base-case expectation for “stagflation.” Maggie Lake welcomes Daily Dirtnap editor Jared Dillian to the Daily Briefing to talk about what key markets are telling us heading into the end of the year and how the Fed is likely to handle recent softer inflation data. And Andy Constan, the CEO of Damped Spring, explains the two ways central bankers can really kill inflation. Watch the full conversation between Andy Constan and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3TXQsEA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s a Thanksgiving-abbreviated trading week in the U.S., but there’s no lack of compelling evidence to sift this Monday. Stocks were mixed two hours ahead of the close, but long-duration Treasury yields had sent a decidedly risk-off message on signs the domestic economy is slowing. Crude oil prices reached lows not seen since January, with OPEC denying reports it will discuss production increases when it meets in December. And we’ll have more insight on central bank thinking when minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released on Wednesday. Greg Weldon, the CEO of Weldon Financial, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what a re-assertion of dollar strength means for the market right now. We also hear from Michael Gayed about the implications of falling U.S. Treasury yields in an excerpt from the October 28 Daily Briefing. Watch the full conversation between Michael Gayed and Andreas Steno Larsen here: rvtv.io/3VizvWO. Learn more about your ad choices.

Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar founded macroeconomic consulting firm Sri-Kumar Global Strategies to advise multinational firms and sovereign wealth funds on risk and opportunity around the world. Sri joins Harry Melandri to explain why China’s global ambitions represent a major macro risk and, at the same time, how emerging markets have never had more potential for growth. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices