Rational Security

Hey there, Rational Security listeners! We have a quick programming note for you:Due to some scheduling conflicts both among us co-hosts and with Lawfare’s broader podcast production schedule, we are moving Rational Security’s release date from Wednesday to Thursday from this week moving forward.This does unfortunately mean you will have to wait an extra day for this week’s episode. But it also means that we’ll be able to bring you new episodes that are meatier, newsier, and more B-roll-y than ever moving forward.Thanks for bearing with us, and we will see you on Thursday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott were joined by their Lawfare colleagues senior editor Molly Reynolds and managing editor Tyler McBrien to talk over some copycat-ing that's been taking place in the national security space, including:“Hoppin’ the Fence at Lulapalooza.” In a clear echo of the Jan. 6 insurrection, followers of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro sacked the country’s parliament this past week, just days after his successor Lula da Silva was sworn in—and while Bolsonaro himself was visiting former U.S. President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate. What’s the relationship between Jan. 6 and Brazil’s recent experience? Is this the beginning of a dangerous global trend?“The Divider House Rules.” After fifteen votes, Rep. Kevin McCarthy is now the Speaker of the House. But to get there, he had to make a lot of concessions—many of which are now showing their face in the House rules and in committee appointments, while others remain secret. What constraints has McCarthy accepted in order t

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the big natsec news stories starting off the new year, including:“Watch Out, You Might Get What You’re After.” As we recorded, the Freedom Caucus was in the midst of burning down the House, denying the Republican majority the ability to appoint Kevin McCarthy as Speaker through three consecutive ballots. Where might this lead? And what more should we expect from the 118th Congress? “Title and … Reversed?” The Supreme Court interrupted its holiday break to consider whether Republican-led states should be allowed to intervene in a case wherein a lower court ordered the end of Title 42 policies, which impose draconian immigration restrictions on the basis of the COVID-19 public health emergency. What could the Supreme Court’s intervention mean for these policies? And what does their persistence tell us about immigration politics in our country?“A Boom Market for Things That Go Boom.” U.S. arms exports to NATO

For their end-of-the-year episode, Alan, Quinta, and Scott took on a number of hard-hitting questions posed by you, the listeners, including:What did Quinta mean when she referenced "the radical political statement" of the Star Wars series Andor?How should we grade Biden as a foreign policy president? Has he made America credible again?Will recent mass shootings make Congress more open to any sort of "domestic terrorism" legislation?What delay tactics did former President Trump use in the courts, and what can be done to stop others from doing the same?Who wins, werewolf or vampire? And how?How would the Afghan Adjustment Act provide legal protections for Afghans who fled the Taliban in the final days of the U.S. military presence? And what is stopping Congress from enacting it?Why has the United States let Turkey bully Stockholm and Helsinki over NATO membership? How can we get Americans to care about foreign policy? Which Muppet does each host identify with most strongly and why?They also pass

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were once again joined by Congress maven Molly Reynolds to hash through some of the week's big natsec news, including:“Don’t Fear the Referr(als).” As its presumed end draws nigh with the new Congress, the Jan. 6 committee is racing to bring its work to a close. Yesterday it voted to make four sets of criminal referrals, including for former President Trump. It also released a 100-page draft executive summary for its forthcoming report. What more should we expect from the committee? And what impact will these steps have?“The Grapes of Vlad.” The U.S. Congress sent a strong message of support to Ukraine this week by committing $45 billion in U.S. assistance, even more than requested by the Biden Administration. But there are few signs that Russia’s poor performance thus far is threatening Russian President Vladimir Putin’s control of the country, who seems to be settling in for a long-haul strategy of waiting out Western and Ukrainian resistance. What trajectory is this confl

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by serial guest Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“Surly Intervention.” Desperate circumstances in the island nation of Haiti have both Haitians and the international community thinking seriously about another international intervention. But no one seems excited about the prospect, or eager to lead it. How should the international community be approaching this situation?“What’s the Penalty for Inequal Substitution?” The Biden administration finally negotiated the freedom of WNBA Star Brittany Griner this past week, but at a steep cost: the freedom of notorious Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. And she leaves behind her another American, Paul Whelan, who has been in Russian prison since 2018. Was the trade worth making? How should the United States handle these difficult hostage-taking cases?“Justice Delayed is Justice in Stride.” Nearly thirty-four years after the Pan Am 103 bombing, the Justic

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were reunited after a few weeks apart to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is Still Guilty of Seditious Conspiracy.” The jury in the Oath Keepers trial came back last week, convicting every defendant of at least one criminal offense—including the controversial charge of seditious conspiracy. What might this mean for other Jan. 6 investigations moving forward?“Morality? Puh-leeze.” Weeks of protests in Iran finally seemed to bear fruit last week when a regime official signaled that the morality police may be disbanded and laws requiring that women wear hijabs be repealed. But other regime figures don’t seem on-board with that solution. Is this a sign that protests are succeeding? Where might they go from here?“Les Fleurs du MAL.” The litigation that led Judge Aileen Cannon to appoint a special master to review evidence collected by the FBI from former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate this past summer h

This week, Quinta and Scott co-hosted sans Alan, but were joined by the co-hosts of the Carnegie Council's The Doorstep Podcast, Nikolas Gvosdev and Tatiania Serafin! They talked through the week's big national security news, including:“Paper Rocks Censors.” China has erupted in protests against Xi Jinping’s draconian zero-COVID policies, with thousands of Chinese citizens holding up a blank white sheet of paper as a sign of their discontent. Will these “white paper” protests make a difference in China? How should the United States respond?“A Cheney Might Shoot You in the Face, But They’d Never Stab You in the Back.” Last week, the Washington Post reported that more than a dozen current and past staffers on the Jan. 6 committee are angry with co-chair Liz Cheney for decisions to focus the committee’s final report on conduct related to former President Trump. Is there merit to these complaints or do they seem overblown?“Much Guaido About Nothing?” The Biden administration is easing sanctions on Venezuela, as t

This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott welcomed Lawfare's dynamic associate editor duo, Katherine Pompilio and Hyemin Han, on to the show to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:“Going Full Cleve.” Last week, former President Donald Trump announced his intention to once again run for president—in spite of the Republicans’ weak showing in the midterm elections and his own impending legal troubles. What does Trump’s announcement mean for 2024 and after? “A Mueller Mulligan?” Trump’s announcement that he was once again running for president in turn led Attorney General Merrick Garland to make his own announcement last Friday: that he was appointing another Special Counsel to take over the investigations into Trump’s interference in the 2020 election results and mishandling of classified records. Was this the right move? How will the Special Counsel’s appointment impact the investigations—and Trump’s political future?“Pyongyanking Our Chain.” North Korea has l

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott talked through a big week of national security news, including:“Red Dead Redemption.” Expectations of a “red wave” in the 2022 midterm elections came up short this week, as Democrats retained control of the Senate and expanded their control in the states while Republicans only appear to gain control of the House by the slimmest of margins. How will these election results impact the security of our democracy moving forward?  “Negotiating a Peace Entreaty.” Even as Russian forces beat a retreat from Kherson, some officials within the Biden administration—most notably, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley—are reportedly becoming more inclined to push for a negotiated peace with Russia, particularly as the winter months slow down the pace of fighting. Russia, meanwhile, responded to a speech by Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky outlining a 10 step plan for peace with a new barrage of missile attacks. What are the pros and cons of such negotiations? And

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Brookings Institution Middle East expert Natan Sachs to talk over the week's big (non-U.S. election) national security news, including:“Bibi Got Back.” Last week, an unprecedented fifth national election in the last four years returned controversial former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to power, at the head of a coalition including several far-right nationalist parties. What does his return to office mean for the future of Israel and the region? And its relations with the United States?“COP Out.” The United Nations’ 27th annual Convention of Parties (also known as “COP27”) is playing host to world leaders in Sharm-al-Sheikh, Egypt, this week, where some are hoping to find new consensus on how to combat climate change. Are countries taking these challenges seriously? What are these efforts likely to look like moving forward?“Everybody Toots.” Elon Musk’s purchase and dramatic reorientation of Twitter is begging to dri

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott shook off their post-Halloween sugar comas to hash through some of the week's big national security news stories, including:“A Home Invasion in the House.” A man connected to various online conspiracies broke into the San Francisco home of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and violently assaulted her husband, all as part of a plot to kidnap and torture her. What is to blame for this type of violence? Are we taking it seriously enough?“First (R)use?” The Biden administration’s recently released Nuclear Posture Review has taken many progressives by surprise, as it appears to walk back candidate Biden’s commitment to a policy against first use. Is this criticism fair? What should we make of the Biden administration’s nuclear strategy?“Trust and the Fourth Estate.” The Justice Department has codified new guidelines putting significant restrictions on when and how prosecutors can subpoena and arrest journalists. Are these restrictions well-founded or do they go too far? For

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by China expert and law professor Julian Ku to talk through some of the week's big national security news, including:“Xi Loves Me, Xi Loves Me Not.” At the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress this past weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping was able to not only secure his leadership over the party and country for a third consecutive five-year term but successfully staff the party apparatus with his hand-picked loyalists. What does the Congress tell us about where China is headed under Xi’s rule?“Huawei or the Highway.” Less than 24 hours after the close of the CCP Congress in Beijing, Attorney General Merrick Garland and his most senior deputies unveiled a series of indictments against Chinese nationals alleged to have engaged in covert campaigns to interfere with the investigation into Huawei, penetrate U.S. research institutions, and curb protests by Chinese nationals in the United States. Is the timing a message or just a coincidence? How should th

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott flew solo to talk through some of the week's big national security news stories, including:“Jake, Mr. Sullivan if You’re NSSty.” The Biden administration finally unveiled its long awaited (and overdue) National Security Strategy last week, through a high-profile event at Georgetown University featuring National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Does it hit the mark? Does it even matter? “Big Subpoena Energy.” The Jan. 6 committee confidently closed its last live session with a bang last week, in the form of a unanimous vote to subpoena former President Trump for his testimony. Trump responded with a 14-page rant a few days later that repeated many of his grievances over the 2020 election but did not address whether he would comply. Why did the committee take this step? Is there any way to compel Trump to cooperate? Will it need to?“Is it SIGINT or SIJINT?” The Biden administration has issued a new Executive Order limiting its collection of signals intelligence, as part of

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by beloved Lawfare contributor and UVA Law professor Ashley Deeks, fresh from her latest stint at the White House. They hashed through some of the week's big national security news, including:“The Bridge and Pummel Crowd.” Ukraine’s destruction of a symbolic bridge linking Russia to Crimea has observers worried about a new round of escalation, as Russia responded with missile strikes on a range of civilian targets across the country, including a German consulate in Kyiv, with promises of more to come. Are we entering a new, brutal phase of the conflict? What can be done to stop its civilian toll—or to keep the escalatory spiral from spinning out of control?“Finally, Some Decency and Moderation on the Supreme Court.” Last week, the Supreme Court took up not one but two—albeit, two closely related—cases that center on how to apply Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, a law that provides internet companies with immunity for liability arising from user-gene

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down with unofficial fourth co-host, Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett, to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:“That’s one, one disqualified elector. (Ah ah ah.)” Both the House and Senate finally seem ready to reform the Electoral Count Act, the ambiguity-ridden statute that has (kind of) governed how Congress counts electoral votes since 1887. What threats to our elections process will these reforms fix? Which will they leave unaddressed?“It’s No Longer A-Me, Mario.” Recent elections are set to replace Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi with none other than Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy movement. What does her victory mean for democracy in Italy and across Europe?“Narcnado.” The Treasury Department’s decision to sanction Tornado Cash, an open source cryptocurrency tumbler, has privacy and technology advocates crying foul. Will the sanctions survive a coming legal challenge? Does it put First Amendment rights a

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare managing editor Tyler McBrien to hash through the week's big national security news, including:“Bad Vlad’s Sad Grab Has Leningrad a Tad Mad.” Russian President Vladimir Putin seems intent on escalating the conflict in Ukraine, as he’s mobilized thousands of civilian conscripts and is on the verge of incorporating separatist parts of the country into Russia following a sham referendum. But will the Russian people stand for these new actions? And what will they mean for the future of the conflict?“What’s Farsi for Riotgrrrl?” Young Iranians have taken to the streets for women’s rights following the apparent killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was arrested by religious police for failing to adequately cover her hair. Could this be a real threat to the Iranian regime? And what will it mean for hard-line President Raisi and the ailing Ayatollah Khameini?“Cannon as Anticanon.” Everyone’s favorite federal district court judge Aileen Cannon has h

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott went guestless to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:“Ne Me Quitte Pas.” The nearby island nation of Haiti is hitting new levels of instability, as paired economic and political crises have given way to open gang warfare in broad swathes of the country. While the events have some calling for external intervention, others have expressed major reservations with such a step, given its past failings in the country. Where might this crisis lead?“I’m Rubber, You’re Su(ing).” Last week, the Fifth Circuit released a real barn-burner of an opinion in the matter of NetChoice v. Paxton, wherein it adopted a narrow reading of the First Amendment in order to resurrect a Texas law severely limiting how social media platforms can moderate content. What will this case mean for platforms moving forward?“Flying Worst Class.” Florida Governor Ron Desantis became the latest Republican governor this week to fly undocumented migrants to northern cities in purported protest o

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down with Lawfare deputy foreign policy editor and RatSec rookie Dana Stuster, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Chechens Coming Home to Roost.” Ukraine’s surprise counteroffensive in Kharkiv has proven to be a massive success, leading Russian troops to surrender seized territory as they beat a retreat. At the same time, supporters of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—including Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov—are becoming more openly critical of how the Russian government is managing the campaign. What will these setbacks mean for the future of the conflict—and the Putin regime itself? “Did You Know You Can Eat Them With the Skins On?” Last week, Cloudflare announced that, due to “an unprecedented emergency and immediate threat to human life,” it would cease providing security services to Kiwi Farms, an internet forum infamous for coordinating harassment and doxxing campaigns. Should essential service providers like Cloudflare be put in the

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeriti Ben Wittes and Shane Harris for a very special anniversary edition of Rational Security that pits their national security hot takes up against each other.Which of the following takes will the team find to be "too hot," which "undercooked," and which "just right"?Americans (and especially progressives) will regret reviving the prospect of disqualifying people under section 3 of the 14th Amendment.Over the next year, there will be a windfall of information regarding unidentified aerial phenomena, including some pointing to possible extraterrestrial origin.A President Ron Desantis won't be as dangerous as President Donald Trump.Russia's terminal decline presents one of the greatest threats to global security.American democracy will be saved by social conservative minorities voting for the Republican Party. For object lessons, Alan endorsed his favorite children's book about affectionate penguins (of many), "I Like it When" by Mary Murphy. Qui