Rational Security

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their Brookings and Lawfare colleague Molly Reynolds to talk all things Congress in the week’s national security news, including:Shattering the Must-Pass Ceiling.” Earlier this week, President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced a deal on raising the debt ceiling, and thereby avoiding a potential financial catastrophe. The question now is whether they can sell it to enough members of Congress, where right-wing members of McCarthy’s caucus are promising to sink it. Will the deal make it through? And if not, what might come next?“Recep Tayyip Erdo-won.” After a close fought contest, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emerged victorious from run-offs in Türkiye’s national elections, positioning him for a third term in office and a third decade in power. Does the reelection of the increasingly autocratic figure mean the further decline of Turkish democracy? And Türkiye’s flagging relationship with the West?“I’m Sorry, Dave. I’m Afraid That’s Not

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were reunited to celebrate Alan's gradual physical and mental decline, and to talk over the week in national security news, including:“Fear of Flying.” President Biden finally greenlit the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine, despite Russia’s warnings—just as the siege at Bakhmut signals a brutal new phase of the conflict. Is this the right move? Or is the risk of escalation too great?“Big Sky, Closed Borders.” Social media company TikTok is challenging a new Montana law barring its use in the state on a variety of constitutional grounds, including the First Amendment and foreign affairs preemption. Are there legal barriers to state efforts to regulate platforms like TikTok? Or does Montana have the better arguments?“Putting the ‘Err’ in Durham.” Special Counsel John Durham has released the final report of his investigation into the original of the FBI investigation into possible links between the Trump campaign and Russia. And while the report has some celebrating, it’s left many

This week, Alan and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus (and Washington Post star reporter) Shane Harris to talk over the week's news! Including:“Flight of the Valkyries.” Recently leaked U.S. intelligence reports allege that Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prighozin—who has privately and publicly feuded with the Russian military leadership in recent weeks and even threatened to pull his mercenary troops from the conflict—has been in contact with Ukrainian intelligence and offered to share Russian troop positions in exchange for concessions around the disputed city of Bakhmut. Is Prighozin trying to find a path to retreat? What do his actions tell us about the conflict?“Jerkiye Boy.” Twitter owner Elon Musk has come under criticism for the company’s latest bad call: censoring certain content at the request of the Erdogan government in Türkiye, just prior to national elections there. How should Twitter have responded to the demands of Turkish officials? And how has Musk’s erratic leadership affected the company’

This week, Scott took a well-deserved vacation, so Alan and Quinta were joined by Lawfare managing editor Tyler McBrien to discuss:“But I thought 42 was the answer to life, the universe, and everything.” This week the Biden administration will cease Title 42, the policy linked to the Covid public health emergency under which asylum seekers could be turned back at the border. In its place, the administration is implementing a new rule that substantially limits asylum, limitations that, before the Trump administration implemented Title 42, would have been unthinkable. What should we make of the Biden administration’s embrace of immigration restrictions?“Every time a tragedy, increasingly also a farce.” Over the weekend, a gunman opened fire at an outlet mall in Allen, Texas, killing at least 8 people and injuring at least 7 before being killed by police. Tragically, this wasn’t even the deadliest mass shooting on record this year. How did mass shootings become America’s pastime, and what can be done to stop the

This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott were joined by Lawfare legal fellow Saraphin Dhanani to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“Seoul Authority.” South Korea and the United States recommitted themselves to their close security relationship this past week, including through a state dinner and a new Washington Declaration that confirms that the United States will respond to any nuclear attack on South Korea with overwhelming force. What drove this public showing? And what impact will it have on the nuclear threat posed by North Korea?“The Uncanny X-Date.” The debate over raising the debt ceiling took on new urgency this week, when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the United States might meet the ‘X-Date’ at which it defaults on its obligations as soon as June 1. Yet there are few signs of a compromise, as House Republicans have dug in on a proposal that demands deep spending cuts while the Biden administration continues to push for a clean raise. Where will

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down—2/3 in a new studio space! (sorry, not sorry, Alan)—to discuss the week's big national security news, including:“A Sense of Doom in Khartoum.” An armed conflict between two rival military factions has broken out in Sudan. The United States and other major powers have evacuated their embassies, but numerous foreign nationals remain trapped on the ground, along with Sudanese civilians. How should the international community respond?“Tuck Around and Find Out.” Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News, having been summarily dismissed this past Friday with little fanfare. Whether this is a response to the Dominion settlement or something else remains a mystery. What does his departure mean for the media landscape?“He Was Just Biden’ His Time.” President Biden has finally confirmed what we all suspected: that he is running for re-election. How will national security fit into his candidacy, and the election to follow? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by law professor extraordinaire Jed Shugerman to talk over his controversial take on the New York district attorney's case against former President Trump, among other items in the week's national security news, including:“If You Come at the King, You Best Not Whiff.” Former President Trump’s indictment on 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree under New York state law earlier this month has triggered a firestorm of controversy, with several commentators accusing New York district attorney Alvin Bragg of advancing a weak or flawed case. What should we make of Bragg’s case based on what we know so far? And what more information should we be looking for?“Factual Malice.” Fox News has settled the defamation lawsuit being pursued against it by Dominion Voting Systems for a record $787.5 million—but without having to make an on-air acknowledgement of its false statements. Does this settlement deal do justice? Should Dominion have proceed

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were reunited to discuss the perils of Nazi paraphernalia collecting, among other hot national security news stories from the week, including:“TrickyLeaks.” A tranche of what appear to be genuine classified Defense Department documents has shown up on the internet, after being leaked to a conservative Discord channel and having spread through a number of other online fora for discussing video games and other issues. Who seems to be responsible? And how strategically significant are they? “Save Paradise, Put Me Up in a Parking Lot.” A ProPublica investigation has revealed that Justice Clarence Thomas—who once famously said that he felt more comfortable hanging out in a Walmart parking lot than at the beach—has been accepting extravagant tropical vacations from Republican megadonor Harlan Crow for decades. What does this tell us about ethics on the Supreme Court? Is there a legal solution?“Lost in the FrAUKUS.” French President Emmanuel Macron stirred up controversy this

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien to celebrate the return of the complete media madhouse and talk through the week’s big stories, including:I’m So Indicted and I Just Can’t Fight It.” Donald Trump became the first former president to be indicted this past week—and he celebrated with a speech from his Mar-a-Lago estate that painted the charges against him as a partisan witch-hunt. How big a step is this? And where is it likely to lead?“(Re)Press Pass.” Russia has jailed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and is preparing to prosecute him on espionage charges. What appears to be driving Russia’s decision? And how should the rest of the world respond?“Crossing the Finnish Line.” Finland became NATO’s newest member this week, doubling the alliance’s shared border with Russia. What does an expanding NATO mean for security in Europe?For object lessons, Quinta recommended Beverly Gage’s recent biography of J. Edgar Hoover, “G-Man.” Scott urged listeners to ch

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined once again by co-host emeritus and Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes to talk through national security news stories from the Holy Land to the Lone Star State, including:“Rebel Aviv.” Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s efforts to dramatically reform Israel’s legal system hit a roadblock this past week in the form of widespread popular protests. After sacking his defense minister for suggesting that the reforms should be delayed, Netanyahu did just that—even as he also took steps to allow his most far-right allies to set up their own militia. What does this all mean for the future of Israeli democracy?  “Wake Up in the Mornin’ Feelin’ Like J Biddy.” President Joe Biden may be poised to try and ban TikTok from the United States in light of the Chinese government’s opposition to efforts to force a sale. And if he doesn’t take such steps, Congress might. But is either step legally viable? What policy approach is best for this particular moment?&

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott waited for a big shoe to drop by talking over the week's big national security news, including:“What Else Can I Get Away With on Fifth Avenue...” Donald Trump is expected to become the first former president to be indicted on criminal charges this week—if, that is, local authorities are not deterred by the public protests Trump’s supporters are preparing to hold in New York City at his request. What will this move mean for the country? And how might it end? “Territorial Refute.” After weeks of avoiding the issue, likely 2024 Republican presidential contender Ron Desantis adopted the position that supporting Ukraine—which he described as being involved in a “territorial dispute”—is not a vital U.S. interest, bringing him into alignment with former President Trump and signaling a strong lean towards isolationism in the 2024 Republican field. What will this mean for the likely candidates? And for U.S. support for Ukraine moving forward?“The ‘Blood, Treasure, and Regret’ An

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined for a special episode by the most glamorous of RatSec co-hosts emeritus, Shane Harris, to hand out some Academy Awards for events in national security over the past year.The nominees include:For “Best Make-Up” (i.e., what was the year’s most memorable apology?):The Biden administration’s confession that its balloon bombardment was a bust;Kevin McCarthy’s ongoing Mar-a-Lago mea culpa;Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss’s resignation over her positively wilting economic plan.For “Best Score” (i.e., who came away as the year’s most unexpected winner?):Western Europe, whose uncharacteristic balminess helped it weather the winter without Russian energy imports;The F-22, which got its first kill (of a Chinese spy balloon) even as the U.S. military debates whether to discontinue it;China, whose late role in the Saudi-Iran rapprochement allowed it to seize much of the credit.For “Best Supporting Actor” (non-state actor, that is) (i.e., which non-governmental figure h

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Naval Academy professor and cyberlaw expert Jeff "Two Effs" Kosseff to work through the week's big national security news stories, including:“Dox Populi.” Florida’s state legislature is the latest of several to propose laws requiring individuals involved in certain online activities to reveal their identities to the state. Are these requirements consistent with the First Amendment? What would they mean for civil society where they apply?“Recommend Forward.” The Biden administration has rolled out what some had previewed as a historic new cyber strategy. But it’s left some experts cold, in part because it seems to hinge on future enactments by a cooperative Congress—something that may not be in the cards. How revolutionary is it really?“Forget It, Jake. It’s the Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party.” The House select committee on China held its first hearing last week to much fanfare. How much is it

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by favorite guest Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week's news, including:“Low Confidence Games.” A Department of Energy intelligence report concluded with “low confidence” that COVID-19 may have begun with a lab leak in Wuhan, China, further fracturing views within the U.S. government and giving added fuel to those seeking to put blame for the pandemic on China. What should we make of the report—and the strong reactions to it?“It’s Coming from Inside the Cabinet.” The West Bank and Israel appear to be in the midst of another spiral of violence. Most recently, the shooting of two Israeli settlers by a Palestinian led to a riot through a number of Palestinian towns that killed one resident and damaged hundreds of homes and cars. What explains this surge in violence? And is the new Israeli government headed by Bibi Netanyahu to blame? “Tallanasty.” At the prompting of Gov. Ron DeSantis—likely a leading candidate for the 2024 Republic

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat through literally hours of oral arguments to prepare to discuss all the national security developments in the news, including:“The HIMAR Anniversary.” The war in Ukraine is one year old this week. The Biden administration marked the occasion with a presidential visit to Kyiv and a finding of crimes against humanity, while Vladimir Putin celebrated by moving the Doomsday Clock a bit closer to midnight. What should we make of where the war stands one year in?“We’re Living in a Post-Algorithm World, and I’m a Post-Algorithm Girl.” So said Justice Elena Kagan (more or less), as she and the other members of the Supreme Court heard arguments in Gonzalez v. Google and Twitter v. Taamneh on terrorism liability and the scope of protections under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act—a case that some argue could break the internet. What did we learn from oral arguments? And what might the ramifications be?“Bold Dominion.” Dominion Voting Systems filed a stunning brief in i

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott talked over some of the various natsec stories blowing up headlines, including:“The Truth is Up There…And We Shot It Down.” Last week’s controversy over a Chinese spy balloon has blown up, as the United States and Canada have shot down a number of similar unidentified flying objects over their airspace in the past few days. But why is the Biden administration being so close-lipped about what these things are? Is there reason for concern?“Now I Know How Joan of Arc Felt.” Special Counsel Jack Smith appears to be turning up the heat on associates of former President Trump: former Vice President Pence is reportedly invoking both executive privilege and the Speech and Debate Clause to avoid testifying before a grand jury, while Smith is pushing to overcome another witness’s claim of attorney-client privilege on the basis of the crime-fraud exception. What should we make of these moves? What do they tell us about where the investigation is headed? “Oh Nikki, You’re On Time,

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined once again by host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's various freak-outs, including:“We Found the 100th Luftballon.” Last week, a Chinese spy balloon floated over the United States, triggering a national freak-out that led to the cancellation of a major high-level summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders. Was this freak-out warranted? What does it tell us about U.S.-China relations?“SotFU.” President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address last night—and it was about as contentious as expected. How did he do? And how should we feel about this most vaunted of national institutions?“ChatOMG.” Over the past several weeks, countless Americans have had the chance to hash it out with ChatGPT, a large language-model artificial intelligence that is open to the public and will either revolutionize or devastate a thousand different human tasks, depending on who you ask. Just how revolutionary is ChatGPT? And is that a good thing or a bad thing

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare special Georgia correspondent Anna Bower to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:“You Gotta Know When to Fulton.” Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has wrapped up her work with a special purpose grand jury investigating former President Donald Trump and his associates for potential 2020 election interference, and has said that charging decisions will be forthcoming. But why did she oppose the public release of the grand jury’s report? And what might that tell us about where the case is headed?“It Is Happening Again.” The brutal murder of Tyre Nichols by police officers in Memphis, Tennessee, is bringing back to the fore demands for police reform and greater accountability for the violence that our criminal justice system levels disproportionately against Black Americans. What lessons should we take from this case? Is there any way forward for change?“Drop the ‘Real.’ It’s Cleaner.” Former President D

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by special guest Michel Paradis to talk over the week's big national security news, including:“Don’t Tank my Chain.” Western allies of Ukraine have finally agreed to a way forward on providing the country with tanks, an issue which has proven surprisingly contentious in recent weeks. Germany will now allow its Leopard tanks to be used in the near-term while the United States will send Ukraine a series of M1 Abrams in the future, meeting the German demand for a matched U.S. contribution. Why was this so important to Germany? And what does it tell us about the broader state of the war?“Slight of the Valkyries.” The U.S. Treasury Department has slapped new sanctions on the Russian mercenary group, the Wagner Group, labeling them a Transnational Criminal Organization (“TCO”)—even as U.S. officials continue to resist calls to designate them a terrorist organization. What explains this reticence? Is it warranted?“Empire State of Mind.” For the first time, the New York City di

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott reunited on our new recording day to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Blocked and Muted.” Earlier this week, the Washington Post published a draft report by the Jan. 6 committee detailing how the far right used social media to organize and mobilize in the lead-up to the insurrection—the very same analysis that was reportedly kept out of the committee’s final report, over the objections of staffers. How substantial are these revelations? And how will they impact the committee’s legacy?“Sino the Times.” The Chinese government is reporting that its population has declined for the first time in 60 years, decades ahead of projections. Combined with the fallout of the regime’s reversal on zero-Covid policies and a lagging economy, some are taking this as a sign of difficult times to come for the People’s Republic. How should we read these reports? And what do they mean for the China-U.S. relationship?“Raising the Roof.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen