Rational Security

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined by Kevin Frazier to talk through some of the week’s biggest national security news, including:“KOSA Nostra.” An overwhelming majority of senators voted to pass the Kids Online Safety Act, also known as KOSA—a bipartisan piece of legislation that would impose new responsibilities on online platforms in looking after their underage users. Despite the 91-3 vote in the Senate, KOSA has faced strong opposition from a number of civil rights and internet freedom groups, and its path ahead in the House remains uncertain. What’s next for the bill, and what does its success so far say about the state of tech policy in the U.S.?“Herding Llamas.” The company formerly known as Facebook announced the release of a new AI large language model, Llama 3.1. Meta described the model as “open-source”—but is it responsible to release such a powerful model that way? And what does this mean for the AI arms race in Silicon Valley?“Keeping the Nine in Line.” Fresh on the heels of the Supreme Cour

This week, Alan and Scott were joined by Lawfare teammates Molly Reynolds and Eugenia Lostri to talk over the week’s big national security news, including…“Bye Biden.” President Biden made the historic decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race over the weekend. He swiftly endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris, who now appears poised to become the Democratic candidate at the party’s convention next month. How might Harris be different from Biden, both as a candidate and as a president? And what will the change mean for the 2024 race?“The CrowdStrikes Back.” Countless businesses around the world found their Windows computers disabled this past week, due to a faulty update pushed out by the prominent cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. The consequences continue to ripple out, including waves of canceled and rescheduled flights at numerous major airlines. What can this incident teach us about the security of our computer infrastructure? And are there ways to avoid similar incidents in the fut

This week Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to talk through one of the most eventful weeks in national security news in recent history, including:“Too Close for Comfort.” Former President Trump narrowly avoided an assassination attempt this past weekend that ultimately left one rally-goer dead and two others critically wounded. While Trump and President Biden both made calls for national unity, several of Trump’s close allies were quick to blame the Biden administration’s rhetoric painting Trump as a threat to democracy. What will this historic event mean for the 2024 election—and for the rise in political violence and related rhetoric that’s preceded it?“Cannon Fodder.” After months of glacial judicial proceedings, federal District Court Judge Aileen Cannon finally did what many of her critics had long expected and dismissed the special counsel’s criminal case against former President Trump, based in large part on an aggressive reading of the Appointment

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Lawfare Contributing Editor Eric Ciaramella to talk over all the national security news causing traffic issues in D.C., including:“Ukraine in the Membrane.” NATO is hosting its 75th anniversary summit here in Washington, D.C., this week. But its members’ eyes are uniformly locked on Ukraine, whose (eventual) membership several will voice support for this week—even as others worry about what a future Trump administration might mean for the alliance and its commitment to the ongoing conflict there. What trajectory is NATO headed on? And what should the alliance be doing to prepare?“So Gauche.” Left political movements emerged victorious over populist right-wing movements in two major elections in Europe this past week. In France, the left-wing New Popular Front squeaked out a narrow plurality over President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition and the right-wing National Rally. And in the U.K., a resurgent L

This week, a Scott-less Alan and Quinta sat down with Lawfare Tarbell Fellow Kevin Frazier and law school-bound Associate Editor Hyemin Han to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience.” Unlike Ronald Reagan, Joe Biden’s underwhelming performance at the first (and perhaps only) presidential debate has put his party in a panic about his chances to win the presidential election. Was Biden’s performance as bad as the pundits and betting markets seem to think and, if so, what should he do about it, both with respect to his staying in the race and even his ability to finish out his presidential term?“When you’re the president, they let you do it.” After promising an opinion “for the ages,” the Supreme Court, in a 6-3, party-line decision, held that presidents enjoy at least some degree of absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts. Did the opini

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined once again by Lawfare Tarbell Fellow Kevin Frazier to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:Wiki-plea-ks.” After more than a decade in effective confinement—first at the Ecuadorian embassy in London, then in a British prison—Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is set to plead guilty in a U.S. federal court in Saipan to a single violation of the Espionage Act for his role in securing and publishing troves of classified U.S. diplomatic cables in 2010, at which point he will walk free. What can we learn from Assange’s saga?“Houthi Can’t Fail.” After months of sustained hostilities—and a U.S.-led multilateral military response—the Houthi campaign against shipping through the Red Sea has once again ratcheted up a notch, disabling a number of ships in sometimes fatal attacks and teaming up with similarly Iran-affiliated Iraqi militia groups. As global supply lines strain, is it clear that the international community’s strategy failed? What more (or di

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Contributing Editor and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Eric Ciaramella to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Prime Deliverables, in Two Days or Less.” The Biden administration and its European allies coughed up a number of big wins for Ukraine at a meeting of the G7 and subsequent Ukraine peace summit this past week, ranging from a new U.S.-Ukraine security agreement to a commitment to provide $50 billion in assistance derived from frozen Russian assets. But are these measures game-changers—especially with political changes in both Europe and the United States on the horizon?“Trying to F Us.” Policy advisors to former President Trump reportedly have some big plans for government employees if he is elected to a second stint in the White House—including the return of Schedule F, an reorganization of the civil service that would have gutted job protections and made it easier to replace civil ser

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes to talk through some of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“Save the Last Gantz.” Leading opposition figure Benny Gantz has left Israel’s war cabinet over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s failure to establish post-conflict plans for Gaza, raising serious questions about the stability of Netanyahu’s far-right government. What does Gantz’s departure mean for the future of the conflict?“Congress Shall Make No Law…Abridging the Freedom of [BEEP], or of the [PRESS ENTER KEY].” California is on the verge of enacting one of the country’s first AI safety laws. But critics are arguing that the type of restrictions it imposes may run afoul of the First Amendment. How does AI fit with the freedom of speech—and does the First Amendment put it beyond regulatory reach?“A Stale Macron is One Tough Cookie.” Recent elections to the European Parliament saw a surge in right (and particularly far-right) parties

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien to discuss how he is coping with the end of the New York trial and to run through some of the week’s big national security news stories, including:“A Perfect Conviction.” Last week, after less than two days of deliberation, a jury in New York state criminal court found former President Trump guilty of all 34 criminal counts on which he was being tried. He’s now scheduled to be sentenced just days before the Republican National Convention this summer, where he is expected to be named the party’s 2024 presidential nominee. What does this conviction mean for Trump’s campaign? What are his prospects for appeal? And what happens if he still wins?“Biden Time.” Last week, President Biden laid out a three-step cease-fire plan for Gaza, sending the clearest signal yet that he is intent on ending the conflict there. Both sides have accepted the plan in principle but have yet to reach agreement on the particulars—and, meanwhile, Israel’s Ra

This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott sat down with Lawfare all-stars Natalie Orpett, Eugenia Lostri, and Kevin Frazier to talk about the week’s big national security news, including: “Waiting to Expel.” The New York Times reported this week that the anticipated transfer of almost a dozen detainees from Guantanamo Bay to Oman was halted in the wake of the Oct. 7 massacre. This as Oman is reportedly preparing to expel a number of former detainees already resident there with their families. What do these developments mean for the effort to resettle detainees and ultimately close Guantanamo?“The First Law of Robotics is Don’t Talk About the Law of Robotics.” AI safety is back on the front pages again, after the resignation of much of OpenAI’s “superalignment” team, which had been tasked with preventing the AIs being developed from becoming a threat to humanity. A bipartisan group of senators, meanwhile, has laid out a roadmap to guide legislative efforts. But is it on the right track? And just how much sh

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes, fresh from his New York rumspringa, to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“You Don’t Have to Go Home, But You Can’t Stay Here.” That’s the message that will soon be going out to those Lawfare team members that have been camping out at our temporary Manhattan studio, as, after weeks of proceedings, it is officially closing time for former President Donald Trump’s criminal prosecution in New York. How has the trial proceeded? And what have we learned up to this point, before the verdict comes in?“Spinning the Wheels of Justice.” The prosecutor for the International Criminal Court has made a landmark request for arrest warrants targeting Hamas’s three most senior officials as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on the grounds that they have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. Is this a step towards justice? Or towards an end to

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to go over the week’s big national security news, including:“Does NSM Stand for No Such Memo?” Last week, in a long-awaited report required by National Security Memorandum 20 that President Biden issued earlier this year, the Biden administration concluded that there were credible reasons to believe that Israel may well have violated international law and obstructed U.S.-backed humanitarian flows in its conduct of the war in Gaza. But it still declined to find Israeli assurances to the contrary lacking in credibility enough to interrupt U.S. security assistance. What does this tell us about the state of U.S. support for Israel—especially as Israeli forces appear increasingly set to pursue an offensive on Rafah that Biden has openly opposed?“What to Expect When You’re Not Expecting.” A sharp global decline in birth rates—often below replacement levels, especially (but not exclusively) in highly developed countries—has som

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare’s Fellow in Technology Policy and Law Eugenia Lostri, to hash through the week’s big national security news, including:“Digital Solid Parody.” The Biden administration is making major moves when it comes to emerging technologies, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken rolling out a new multilateral strategy for “digital solidarity” this week at the annual RSA cybersecurity conference, among other actions. What is new about what the Biden administration is doing? And where will it lead? “Avengers’ Endgame.” Israeli military operations in Gaza may be entering a final stage, as forces may have begun an assault on Rafah—one that U.S. policymakers have warned against, as it could harm the countless Gazan civilians that have sought refuge there. Will this be a breaking point for U.S. support for Israeli military operations? And how will it impact ongoing ceasefire negotiations?“Stomp and Circumstance.” College campuses around the country are at a stands

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Contributing Editor Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big natsec stories, including:“Not Done Nyet.” U.S. foreign assistance is finally on its way to Ukraine, along with additional support from European allies. But will it be enough to solidify or advance the beleaguered Ukrainian military’s position? What is the state of the conflict and how does it look set to move forward?“Official Tracts.” Last week, the Supreme Court heard wide-ranging arguments in Trump v. United States, the appeal of Trump’s criminal prosecution for events related to Jan. 6 considering his far-reaching claims of presidential immunity. Several of the justices seemed quite committed to weighing in on where the lines of immunity should be drawn (even if few seemed to think they were relevant in this particular case), but there was far less consensus on the actual limits. Where is the Court headed and what will it mean for Trump’s prosecution? “Live and Let Modi.”

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were finally reunited to talk through the week’s big natsec stories, including:“First is the Worst.” The historic first criminal trial of a former president has commenced in New York state courts. Both sides have sketched out their cases in opening arguments. What will the charges being brought against former President Trump relating to alleged hush money payments on his behalf mean for him and his 2024 presidential campaign?“Fair Whither Friend.” After months of delay that have, by some accounts, pushed Ukraine dangerously close to defeat, the House has finally passed legislation that would provide them with essential foreign assistance, alongside other aid packages for Israel and Taiwan as well as a handful of related foreign affairs measures. What is good, bad, and ugly about the package that finally got through? And what do the dynamics of its passage mean for other U.S. foreign policy interests in the near term?“The Clock is Tocking.” Among the side measures passed by t

This week, Alan and Quinta sat down with Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Ayatollahs and Airstrikes.” In retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed several high-ranking Iranian military officers in Syria, over the weekend Iran launched a wave of drone and missile attacks against Israel. The vast majority of these were shot down by Israel and its allies, including notably Jordan, causing minimal injuries and damage in Israel. As Israel considers whether to respond, its American and European allies are putting pressure on it to deescalate. What’s Israel’s next move and can broader regional war be avoided?“Beginning of the end or just the end of the beginning?” It has been six months since Hamas’s attack on October 7 and the start of Israel’s war in Gaza, which appears to be entering a new, potentially lower-intensity phase. Israel has withdrawn most of its troops from southern Gaza, although it still argues that it needs to invade Rafah

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined again by Brookings Senior Fellow and Lawfare Senior Editor Molly Reynolds to talk over the week’s national security news, including:“The 702nd Time’s the Charm?” Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act was originally set to expire on December 31, 2023. But somehow, Congress has managed to keep kicking the can down the road—and we’re once again in the middle of an argument about whether and to what extent the legislature should reform the bulk surveillance authority. How did we end up here, and is there any indication that Congress will manage to pass a lasting reauthorization in some form this time around?“Magic Mike.” Speaker of the House Mike Johnson’s troubles don’t stop with FISA, however. He’s also tangled up in a prolonged dispute with his caucus over the U.S. aid to Ukraine—which is becoming a matter of rapidly increasing urgency, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warning that his country “will lose the war” if the aid is not approved. J

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“A Gag Order Prevents Me From Telling You What This Segment Is Called.” After former President Donald Trump attacked the daughter of Justice Juan Merchan, who is overseeing his New York hush-money trial, Justice Merchan expanded the gag order he had previously imposed to prohibit Trump from attacking his family. This is only the latest in what has become a pattern of Trump testing gag orders in his many legal cases. Why have gag orders become such an important part of the Trump cases and how far should they reach?“The Global Importance of the Middle East Is That It Keeps the Far East and the Near East From Encroaching on Each Other.” Even by the standards of the last few months, it’s been a particular busy week in Israel. In just 48 hours, an Israeli strike in Syria killed high-level Iranian military officials, another strike in Gaza killed several aid workers in a

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined again by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman—also of Georgetown University and the Center for Strategic and International Studies— to talk over the week’s national security news, including:“Terror in Moscow.” On Friday, March 22, a group of gunmen unleashed an attack on a concert hall outside Moscow that killed over 130 people, shooting into a crowd of concertgoers before setting the hall on fire. The Islamic State in Khorasan, the Afghanistan branch of ISIS known as ISIS-K, quickly claimed credit for the attack, and Russian authorities have arrested four suspects. The Kremlin, without evidence, has also continued to hint that Ukraine is somehow responsible. What does the attack tell us about ISIS-K, and what does it mean for the Russian government?“April, Come She Will.” After a brief delay, Donald Trump’s hush money trial in Manhattan has been scheduled to begin on April 15—the first of Trump’s criminal cases to go to tr

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Lawfare Legal Fellow and Courts Correspondent Anna Bower to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“No v. Wade.” The long saga of the personal relationship between Fani Willis, the Fulton County District Attorney prosecuting Donald Trump for election interference, and Nathan Wade, the prosecutor Willis put in charge of the case, hit an inflection point when Judge Scott McAfee, who is overseeing the criminal case, ruled that, though there was no actual conflict of interest, “the appearance of impropriety remains,” and ordered Willis to either recuse herself from the case or to remove Wade from his role as prosecutor. Wade promptly resigned, clearing the way for the case to continue. Is this the right resolution to the controversy, and what does it say about the future of the Fulton County case, especially if Trump appeals and tries to force Willis’s disqualification?“Pleading the Fifth…Circuit.” In a sign