Rational Security

For the podcast’s annual end-of-year episode, Scott sat down with co-hosts emeritus Alan Rozenshtein and Quinta Jurecic to talk over listener-submitted topics and object lessons, including:How will the collapse of the Assad regime impact the region? And can the United States help create a secular, democratic Syria?How is the pending TikTok ban even enforceable (if it is)?What national security story from 2024 deserved more attention?Won’t the Fifth Circuit’s recent Tornado Cash opinion simply lead the Treasury Department to sanction the cryptocurrency Ethereum as a whole?What are the most underrated threats to U.S. national security in the last half of this decade?What will be the Trump administration’s first major national security misstep?How worried should the United States be about the BRIC countries’ recent discussions of forming their own reserve currency?For object lessons, Trevor recommended insightful indie video games for our three hosts based on their interests: “Bury Me, My Love” for Scott; “We. T

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower and Natalie Orpett and Lawfare Contributing Editor Michel Paradis to talk about the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“A Justice Delayed Still Has Justice on the Mind.” After weeks of waiting, New York state court judge Justice Juan Merchan has finally become the first judge to apply the Supreme Court’s Trump v. United States immunity decision, holding that incoming President Donald Trump’s convictions under New York state law may stand and did not unduly rely on conduct for which he is immune. How persuasive is his ruling? And what can it tell us about the future of both Donald Trump’s criminal case and the Supreme Court’s immunity holding?“A Break in the Case.” Tectonic shifts in Syrian politics over the past few weeks that has led, among other consequences, to the release of thousands of former prisoners, have brought back to the fore the case of Austin Tice, an American journalist who has been missing in Syria for more

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Eugenia Lostri, and Tyler McBrien to break down the week's big national security news, including:“The Long Road to Damascus.” Syria’s Assad regime collapsed suddenly last week in the face of a rebel offensive, ending thirteen years of revolution. What comes next, however, is anyone’s guess. How will this shift impact regional security? And how is the incoming Trump administration likely to respond?“Pardonez-Moi.” President-elect Donald Trump’s decision to nominate unabashed loyalist Kash Patel—a person who has published a book listing political enemies he thinks should be prosecuted by the Justice Department—for the soon-to-be-vacant position of FBI Director has renewed concerns that the incoming Trump administration will use the Justice Department to prosecute his political enemies. President Biden may have responded in part by pardoning his son Hunter for a wide range of conduct—and some are arguing he should extend similar protections t

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Eric Ciaramella and Anastasiia Lapatina, as well as special guest Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell, for an episode committed to one big topic: what Trump’s return to the White House might mean for Ukraine. They tackled the issue in three parts:“What Condition My Attrition Is In.” By most accounts, after more than two years of fighting, the conflict in Ukraine has come to look very much like a war of attrition. How do Ukrainians feel about the state of the conflict and the prospects looking forward? What steps are the outgoing Biden administration taking to change the calculus—and what impact might they still have, if any?“New Boss, Same as the Old Boss.” Donald Trump’s return to the White House promises a sea change in how the United States has approached the conflict in Ukraine. What do his early national security appointments—and engagements with, among others, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—tell us about his plans? And where d

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Molly Reynolds and Alan Rozenshtein, and with University of Houston Law Center Assistant Professor of Law Chris Mirasola, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Troops, There It Is.” President-elect Donald Trump raised eyebrows this week when he suggested that he intended to declare a national emergency and use U.S. soldiers to implement his planned deportation of undocumented migrants from the United States—the first of many potential domestic uses of the military some fear he will pursue. But does the president have the authority to use the military in this way? And is a(nother) national emergency really necessary?“Break It ‘Til You Make It.” Some have expressed serious doubt as to whether the incoming Trump administration’s flurry of highly controversial nominees for senior positions in government will be able to successfully make its way through even the Republican-held Senate. But doing so may not be necessary, as Trump’s al

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Eugenia Lostri, and Roger Parloff to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:“Putting the Dismal in Dismissal.” Donald Trump’s election as president for a second time puts the state and federal criminal charges against him—and potentially some of his supporters and co-conspirators—in unprecedented historical territory. Where do these cases seem to be headed? And what will it mean for the broader effort at accountability, especially around Jan. 6?“Taking Bytes Out of Crime.” As one of its last acts in power, the Biden administration seems poised to support a forthcoming U.N. convention on cybercrime, despite reservations among some observers that it may be abused by autocratic regimes and strategic rivals. Why is the Biden administration tempted by the treaty? And what will its support at this late hour mean in practice?“Meme of Rivals.” Donald Trump is only one week in as president-elect but has already released a flurry of app

On Tuesday, November 5, former President Trump won the 2024 presidential election, becoming the second president to win a non-consecutive second term. Our team has been hard at work analyzing the fallout, but doing so has left us a little tight on time to record our usual weekly episode. So in lieu of Rational Security this week, we're bringing you a conversation in which Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Alan Rozenshtein, Scott R. Anderson, Anna Bower, and Quinta Jurecic to discuss what happens now. They talk about what a second Trump administration may bring and what to keep an eye out for during the transition in a live recording on Lawfare’s YouTube channel.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Alan Rozenshtein, Benjamin Wittes, and Molly Reynolds to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“An Eye for an Iran.” After weeks of waiting, Israel finally launched the strikes on Iran it had long promised in response to the volley of missiles Iran hit it with earlier this month. Compared to expectations, the strikes were relatively limited and aimed primarily at Iranian military targets, instead of its nuclear and oil infrastructure. And the United States is now urging an end to these “tit-for-tat” strikes. But is this likely to be the case? Or are Israel’s actions just the beginning of a bigger conflict?“He Just Slid into my DMs!” This week, the Wall Street Journal published a stunning report indicating that billionaire industrialist Elon Musk has been having previously undisclosed communications with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials. How concerning should these conversations be? And what ramific

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Tyler McBrien and Anna Hickey and special guest Georgetown University professor and CSIS Senior Fellow (as well as Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor) Dan Byman to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Some Vacancies in Management.” Israeli forces unintentionally hit their number one target last week when an Israeli military patrol in Gaza stumbled across and killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who is widely believed to be the main architect behind the October 7 massacre. It’s the latest in a series of military operations that have left the leadership ranks of both Hamas and Hezbollah decimated. But what are these changes at the top likely to mean for these organizations? Is this an opportunity for peace? Or an opening to greater escalation?“Forgotten, or Not Forgotten Enough.” Sudan has spent the past several months spiraling toward a political and humanitarian crisis of historical proportions, driven in substantial part

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Anastasiia Lapatina, and Eugenia Lostri to try to make sense of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“Kursked.” This week, even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rolls out his “Victory Plan” to Western allies, Russian forces have made progress reclaiming what some have described as a key part of that plan: the region of Kursk within Russia, which Ukrainian forces seized earlier this year. How central is Kursk to Zelensky’s vision for how to end the conflict? And how will Russia’s apparent progress impact his plans?“The Waiting Game.” The world remains on the edge of its seat, waiting to see how Israel will pursue its promised response against Iran for the volley of missiles the latter launched against it earlier this month. What sort of response does Israel seem to have in store? And what role will the United States be playing?“Tap Tap Tapping.” A coalition of China-associated hackers called “Salt

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Kevin Frazier, and Katherine Pompilio to talk over the week's big national security news stories, including:“The Fourth Law of Robotics is, You Don’t Talk About the First Three Laws of Robotics.” California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed SB 1047 this past week, a measure that would have imposed the first set of meaningful safety regulations on the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI)—measures industry leaders said were onerous and unnecessary. While Newsom vetoed this legislation, he endorsed the broader idea of safety action on AI, including at the state level. What does Newsom’s move tell us about the state of the AI industry and efforts to regulate it?“Battening Down the Hatchetmen.” As countless Americans have struggled through the aftermath of Hurricane Helene—and are preparing for Hurricane Milton, due to make landfall Wednesday—Congress has been in recess. And Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has expressed his opposition to any

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Quinta Jurecic, and Tyler McBrien to try to make sense of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“Pulling Up the Escalation Ladder.” Israel’s escalating campaign against Hezbollah turned regional yesterday, as Iran launched a salvo of more than 180 ballistic missiles against Israel. While the damage was limited, both Israel and the United States have promised consequences. What strategies are Israel, Iran, and the United States pursuing in all this? And where will it lead?“At Least He Didn’t Get Aslan Killed.” New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s passion for Turkish delights has led to his indictment on multiple charges relating to alleged corruption, specifically at the behest of individuals associated with the Turkish and potentially other foreign governments. Adams, in turn, claims he is being targeted for, among other reasons, speaking out about immigration concerns. What is the real driver behind Adams’s indictment?&

This week, Scott was joined by Natalie Orpett, Anna Bower, and Matt Gluck to talk over some of the week's big national security news, including:“Some Assembly Required.” On Tuesday, President Biden gave his fourth and final speech as president to the U.N. General Assembly. He used the occasion to reflect on the many foreign policy decisions of his presidency, including the withdrawal from Afghanistan, opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the (thus far unsuccessful) pursuit of a ceasefire in the conflict in Gaza. What does this speech—and the year’s U.N. General Assembly more broadly—tell us about the state of his foreign policy legacy?“Keeping it Peachy.” Georgia’s state election board is in the news for rules changes that some allege could delay finalization of the 2024 election results, opening a possible door for Congress to manipulate the results. But what will these rules changes really mean? And what does it tell us about the potential for (and limits on) efforts to manipulate the outcome of

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare team members Alan Rozenshtein, Tyler McBrien, and RatSec newbie Anastasiia "Nastya" Lapatina to talk through the week's national security headlines, including:“A Shot Across the Rubicon.” Reports indicate that President Biden and his U.K. allies may be on the verge of giving Ukraine approval to use their advanced weapons systems to strike deep into Russia, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat that doing so would be seen as an act of war. How risky a move is this? “TikTok on the DokKit.” Challengers of the federal law that would ban TikTok had their (first) day in court on Tuesday in oral arguments before the D.C. Circuit. How were their criticisms received by the three-judge panel? And what will the implications of their ruling be for the law, and for TikTok more generally?“Dialing M.” Thousands of Lebanese—many of them members of the terrorist group and political movement Hezbollah—were killed or injured this week, when their pagers detonated

In the debut episode of RatSec 2.1, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kevin Frazier, Eugenia Lostri, and Benjamin Wittes to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“I Have Concepts of a Segment Topic.” On Tuesday, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump faced off in what might end up being the only presidential debate between the two candidates in the 2024 election. What did it tell us about how national security is figuring into this election? “Running Political Interference Interference.” The Justice Department has been very busy these past few weeks, bringing an array of indictments and enforcement actions against various Russian actors and their proxies for spreading misinformation, surreptitiously funding political commentary, and otherwise attempting to interfere in the upcoming 2024 elections. What explains this sudden wave of activity so close to the election? And what threats are still hanging out there?“Never Forgot.” Twenty-three years have passed since the unprecedented ter

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott celebrated the third anniversary of Rational Security 2.0 with their Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Natalie Orpett, and Tyler McBrien, who sat in brutal judgment as the three co-hosts pitched them their hottest takes yet, including:Are concerns about judicial ethics overblown?Do ethics require that we open the borders and make whoever wants to become one a citizen?Should we just treat AI systems like the wild animals they are?Which takes are undercooked, which too hot, and which are just right? Listen in and decide!Meanwhile, for object lessons, Scott shared some news about the future of Rational Security moving forward. Listen to the end of the episode to find out what! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler "Spicy Tyler" McBrien to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:“Jack Smith Takes a Mulligan on his Big Swing.” A grand jury has re-indicted former President Trump for his actions relating to the Jan. 6 insurrection, after Special Counsel Jack Smith trimmed and massaged the allegations to accommodate the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity. How different is this indictment? What are the next steps in the trial? And will these new allegations have better odds of surviving Supreme Court review?“An Eye for an Eye Leaves the Whole World in a Bind.” This past week, Israel and Hezbollah traded another vicious round of attacks along Israel’s shared northern border with Lebanon, as part of the long-awaited response to Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah leaders a month ago. Now the region is waiting with bated breath to see whether this will be the end of it or the start of a larger war. How s

This week, Alan and Quinta sat down with Molly Reynolds and Kevin Frazier to talk about the week’s big developments, including:“It can always get worse…” Although President Biden’s replacement by Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket has reenergized the Democrats’ bid to retain the White House, the race is still a tossup, and former President Trump could well reenter the White House in 2025. Have we successfully “Trump-proofed” the government in anticipation? “Run DNC.” The Democratic National Convention is taking place this week in Chicago, and it’s a striking contrast to last month’s Republican convention. That event was largely a celebration of one person, Donald Trump. By contrast, the DNC is as much about the party as it is about its nominee, Kamala Harris. What does it say about the relative strengths of America’s two parties and what that means for the future of American democracy?“Making the Three Laws of Robotics Actual Laws?” California’s SB 1047, the controversial AI

This week, the whole gang—Alan, Quinta, and Scott—got back together to discuss the week's big national security news, including:“In Post-Soviet Russia, Ukraine Invade You!” In an ironic reversal, Ukraine invaded Russia this past week, seizing substantial portions of the oblast of Kursk and surprising both Russian forces and Ukrainian allies in what appears to be its most successful military venture in more than a year. Why did Ukraine take this step? What will it mean in the longer arc of this war?“The X is for Extremism.” Since the tragic murder of three young girls earlier this month, the United Kingdom has been struck by violent riots, the perpetrators of which appear to believe (incorrectly) that the attacker in question was a Syrian asylum seeker, in substantial part due to far-right disinformation being spread by social media, including by X owner Elon Musk. What do these events tell us about the effects of disinformation and their intersection with political violence?“But Our Emails!” The Trump campaig

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's very big national security news stories, including:“The Waiting Game.” The Middle East is on edge this week as it awaits a possible attack by Iran or Hezbollah on Israel in response to the suspected assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders last week, including the chairman of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed while visiting Tehran for the swearing in of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. What might a response look like, if there is one? And what does it mean for the region, including the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire?“Stay Weird, Austin.” Just days after the announcement of a long-negotiated plea deal for three of the four remaining defendants in the military commission trial relating to the 9/11 attacks, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin took the surprising and still largely unexplained move of intervening to rescind that deal and remove the convening authority th