Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Position your portfolio for 2017 with Simon Brown Every year we conclude the JSE Power Hour series with a presentation by Just One Lap founder, Simon Brown. He gives his insights for the year ahead and how to position your portfolio accordingly. Last year the presentation was just days before then Minister Nene was fired and this year’s event will be just days after the Standard and Poor’s announcement regarding South Africa’s credit status. Simon will review his predictions from last year and look at what the year ahead holds and how we can best position our investment portfolio. Issues that to be covered will include; Junk status The Rand Interest rates Offshore investments Impact of the looming Brexit Our local economy and its growth potential A selection of preferred stocks for the year ahead including for your ETF portfolio   The PDF of the presentation is here.

Reviewing my portfolio for 2016 Simon Shares Standard & Poor's left offshore debt as is (one notch above junk) and dropped the ZAR debt to two notches above junk and on a negative outlook. Standard & Poor's have to decide on junk or not by end 2017 or change the negative outlook to stable, so another anxious 2017 awaits us. Reviewing Simon's portfolio for 2016 Some great returns, some middling and one very nasty. Portfolio is published here and returns (ex dividends for the 12 months to close 3 December 2016) as below. Simon's portfolio returns for 2016 We Get Mail @luckysibiya74 Hi Simon, do you think it's a good idea to borrow money to buy shares and is there a type of loan that's purely for buying shares? JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do no

Simon Shares Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) seller in market, use it to pick up some at great price / yield. Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results see diluted HEPS at 54.16c (vs. 60.40 previous year) and dividend at 52c. I like the business but it is very expensive for a low margin operation without performance fees. Moody's not so moody. Fitch full of surprises and Standard and Poor's lurking. * I hold ungeared positions. We got Marc Ashton, MD at Moneyweb, giving us his preferred ETF list. Up coming events; Trading Master Class: Tuesday 6th at 6.00pm - Lazy trading indices and FX. JSE Power Hour: Thursday 8th at 5.30pm - Position your portfolio for 2017. We Get Mail Charles Would you pay for a guaranteed stop loss? Hermanus Trade In your video "A complete CFD share trading system" you stated that the system is based on the top 40 stocks, for the liquidity behind it. I was wondering, to what point would you consider a stock to be liquid enough to trade on a 15 or 30min chart (average daily volume)? Franz

Are we Brazilian? Are we Brazilian? Simon Shares Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) 1million shares on offer at 500c. Subtle? Dis-Chem (JSE code: DCP), like everybody else I did not get in the private placement and I am not looking to buy in the open market. Santova* (JSE code: SNV) getting hit. I hold and continue to hold, not buying any more as I have plenty. Twelve month low is 320c on 25 November 2015, looks like we could get back to that level soon enough. Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) saw massive volume on Tuesday, R1.3billion which is 2x - 3x normal value traded. Tongaat* (JSE code: TON) up at R130, nice but I hadn't finished buy below R120. Not buying up at R130 at the moment, albeit target is likely R150-R180 over next 6-12 months. Let's see if we get some weakness. I been digging into Stor-Age Property (JSE code: SSS) as a possible investment. Thus far not excited by what I see. * I hold ungeared positions. Up coming events; Trading Master Class: Tuesday 6th at 6.00pm - Lazy trading indices and FX. JSE

Trump wins, now what? Trump wins, now what? (Image from Business Insider) Simon Shares Astoria (JSE code: ARA) backs down from its incentive scheme that could have seen up to 25% of new shares issued to directors. Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) = very good. Spar (JSE code: SPP) update = good. Massmart (JSE code: MSM) = poor. Truworths (JSE code: TRU) = horrid. Food doing alright, clothing really struggling. The downgrade and your ETF portfolio. Up coming events; JSE Power Hour: Thursday 10th at 5.30pm - TraderPetri on becoming a better trader. Now what? Brexit, Trump. What's next? Trump wins, pollsters and social media are amazed. But is it our fault? I tweeted The problem with SM is that we follow our own echo chamber .. all sides are here in equal measure, yet we only follow the side we agree with — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 9, 2016 We believe our own BS. I said way back in February that Trump could win, I wasn't predicting anything but rather understanding that our ability to see into the futur

I hate my life, teach me to trade I hate my life, teach me to tarde Simon Shares Dis-Chem, I will likely apply and stag them on listing. Whitey Basson quitting as Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) CEO at end of year. Buying Tongaat (JSE code: TON). Finance minister Gordhan charges dropped, good for junk threat? Trading Master Class - Trend lines video is online. Up coming events; JSE Power Hour: Thursday 3rd at 5.30pm - offshore investing. The how. JSE Power Hour: Thursday 10th at 5.30pm - TraderPetri on becoming a better trader We Get Mail All I have xxx of debt. I hate my job. I hate my life. Please teach me how to trade? All How many years experience one must acquire to be profitable in trading? JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily refle

A letter for when you're dead Simon Shares Still on holiday. Up coming events; IG Trading Master Class: Tuesday at 6pm - Trend lines, break outs and Turtle trading. JSE Power Hour: Thursday at 5.30pm - Offshore investing. The how. A letter for when you're dead When we die hopefully we have a will that'll deal with our estate. But if we've been the one managing investments what happens to them? Sure they go to your heirs, but do they know what to do with them, the strategy and plans? We ned to write a letter to those surviving us explaining it all. Does you partner / family have a full understanding of how you've put together your investments and finances? What do you own and with who? What's the strategy? Keep each strategy in a separate account. Who can manage your investment portfolio now that you're dead? What to watch out for. How to change / adapt the strategy. Who to appoint to manage this. Where is the emergency fund and how is it accessed? Your speculative / derivative positions need to be

Simon Shares Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results. Everybody loves them but I am not wowed. Operating margin of 1.5% up from 1.3% is tiny. By comparison Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) is 5.6% and Spar (JSE code: SPP) is 2.8%. Like for like constant currency turnover grew 3.8% against selling price inflation of 5.5%, so still losing market share? New offshore ETFs from CoreShares. A S&P500 tracker and a Global Property fund. I have applied for the later. Up coming events; JSE Power Hour: 20th at 5.30pm - New offshore ETFs from CoreShares. Keith McLachlan fund manager at Alpha Wealth Chatting Calgro M3 results, memorial parks, new CEO and their residential Reit. We also touch on the Dischem listing and Cell C results that we got a first look at due to the Blue Label 45% stake in the business. 123 Download the audio file here or subscribe to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live or subscribe in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an inde

Hello junk Simon Shares Fees feedback. Seems some active managers are getting serious about fees. But still not 100% in favour of client who pays the fees and some have done odd things. But nobody came back and said my ideas of last week were truly horrid, nor eve slightly horrid. Just last week I was commenting that my odds of a downgrade to junk were retreating. Still above 50%, but only just. Then Gordhan arrest and odds increase again, I think chance of a downgrade to junk is now around 61%. Important dates; 26 October - Mid Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) 2 November - Gordhan to appear in court on fraud charges 24 November MPC rate decision 2 December - SP announce SA credit rating 6 December - GDP for Q3 2016 Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) disappointed, I am not selling but waiting for results to see details. Taste Holdings (JSE code: TAS) results have lots of moving parts, but they're burning cash at a rapid rate and need to get profitable otherwise they run out. Potentially a good business, but fi

Still hating active fees Simon Shares With SABMiller exiting the JSE new weightings in the indices with Naspers (JSE code: NPN) now 19% in the Top40 and 31% in the Indi25. Rating downgrade to junk, still on the cards? Deutsche Bank and the deal on their ETFs and ETNs. Live followup reversal patterns video is online. Two events next week; Trading Master Class on Tuesday covering binary options. JSE Power Hour on Thursday on listed property. Still hating active fees Is the benchmark being used a total return index (TRI) that includes dividends? If not the active manager wins because they get dividends that immediately put them ahead of the benchmark by a few percent. Are performance fees paid back when the fund manager under performs? If not the manager and clients are not aligned as performance is paid when they do well but not returned when they do poorly. We Get Mail George I have a CFD acc on the JSE, it has buy and sell options, but I want to short shares when they go down, must I buy it and then

Simon Shares Thursday 29 September is the last day for SABMiller (JSE code: SAB). Shareholders approved the take over and it will be suspended and delisted from close on 29th. It has been listed on the JSE since 1897 Index changes; IMP into Top40, AVI into Indi25 & FFA/B into Findi. There is a chart floating around of Lehman Brothers just before they hit the wall and one of Deutsche Bank over laid on each other. Nice to look at but in no way telling us anything worth being told. Deutsche Bank is the largest German bank, fourth largest European bank, and 11th largest bank in the world with assets of over $1.9 trillion – equal to half the size of the German economy. (source Sparkfin.com) Remgro (JSE code: REM) is doing another rights issue at R192.50, a decent discount to the current price of some R240. That said the book value of Remgro in the most recent results was R153.17 (intrinsic value was R306.44). MTN, more woes in Nigerian. I remain a happy ex-shareholder. What happens to bonds and bond ETFs

Reviewing small cap results with Keith McLachlan Reviewing small cap results with Keith McLachlan Simon Shares Wells Fargo is the sort of stock that if I owned it, I would sell it as management totally failed and refuse to accept any blame. There is a theory that equal weight ETFs have higher costs because they have to rebalance every stock every quarter. But checking the STXIND over the last four quarters. Twice every stock changed weight and twice only two stocks did not change weightings. Harmony (JSE code: HAR) buys the half of the Hidden Valley mine in Papua New Guinea for US$1! PPC (JSE code: PPC) rights offer was 92% taken up but with excess allocation requests of another 509%. Some serious big hitters thinking this a great deal. Sasfin (JSE code: SFN) nonperforming loans more than doubled. They operate in the small-and medium-sized enterprises so it is a telling number. The economy is seriously struggling and while I have seen some economists upgrading GDP expectations for 2016, none have us at

Reviewing results Simon Shares Feedback on making sense of SENS AVI (JSE code: AVI) results show good numbers in a tough market. People tend to look to Pioneer (JSE code: PFG) or TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) but this is the real gem in the space with a dividend yield of 4%. Holdsport (JSE code: HSP) trading update shows increased comparable sales growth, but after inflation they're going backwards. I never been a fan of this business albeit the share is up some 100% in the last five years, around 15% a year which is nice, but average? But then add a chunky dividend that currently yields 5%, can they hold the dividend or even increase it? I suspect they can but I still not interested. Clover (JSE code: CLR) were good considering the tough times with drought yet they had an over supply of milk? I used to own this stock but they weren't growing and expanding as I had expected so I exited. Sasol (JSE code: SOL) results came in as expected albeit with help from translations gains (FX moving in their favour) and a

Simon Shares Local GDP came in better then expected and importantly positive, so no technical recession. Manufacturing and mining were the strong sectors but we need a lot more very strong quarters to get out of the bad spot we find ourselves in and a down grade is still very much on the cards in December. Discovery (JSE code: DSY) has so many moving parts but for me the key is Vitality is now in 14 markets around the world. I remain a happy shareholder albeit they've done very little over the last year or so. We have a lot of shopping malls in South Africa, b some reports more per capita than any other country. Hyprop (JSE code: HYP) is by far the best of the bunch with regard local malls as they own high traffic top end malls. Mr Price (JSE code: MRP) seems to have lost the mantle. They have now had three reporting seasons over the last year and all disappointed. Is it just bad buying and the weather? I suspect they're seriously struggling under the weight on new competition from the likes of H&M and C

Questions, questions, questions Simon Shares Metrofile (JSE code: MFL) results saw HEPS +4.6% (very modest) and the full year dividend 42.9% putting it on a dividend yield of some 6%. Wowness and why I own the stock, for the dividend. PPC nil paid letters (NPLs) started trading yesterday as PPCN. People are asking me what to do with them and I am sticking to my story. Shorter term after they convert we may get a bounce, longer term PPC has real risks and I would not want to be a holder. So short answer is sell. Bidvest (JSE code: BVT) results were weak with single digit HEPS growth of 2.5% while Bidcorp (JSE code: BID) had great HEPS growth. We know the story and why they split, one local one offshore. Nigerian GDP stays negative and country is now in a technical recession. More tough times for local companies operating in that market. I am being asked if I am selling the gold stocks in the momentum portfolio? The answer is no, it is a rules based system and we follow the rules. GIVRES has done an amazing 99

Role of a Stock Broker in your investment journey Simon Shares More finance minister concerns and more rand weakness. The bigger picture is you have to have a bigger picture investment view otherwise events like this will hurt. In the last of this three part series if you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask Warren Ingram and Craig Gradidge for their view. Trading Master Class, an index trading system is online and follow up in on Monday at 1pm. Tonight in Durban we have a JSE Power Hour - 9.97562 Possible Pitfalls in Investment Planning Our home ownership is the new broke podcast is still generating lots of buzz. Kristia has been on leave so we reward a bunch of Fat Wallet Shows, we will revisit the topic Monday week (5 September). Role of a Stock Broker in your investment journey Simon Brown - Founder of JustOneLap.com Ridwaan Moolla - ABSA, Head of Digital Enablement in Wealth and Investments Charles Savage – Purple Group, Group CEO Kevin Algeo – IG, Head of IG Greg Kangleas - Vunani Private Client

Where to for the Rand? Simon Shares The Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq all closed at all time highs for the first time since December 1999. Dog stocks, don't mix price and fundamentals. I been buying PTXTEN after exiting my STXDIV and not being blown away by DIVTRX. If you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask Nerina Visser & Keith McLachlan for their view. Trading Master Class, an index trading system is online. Garth MacKenzie TradersCorner.co.za Where too for the rand? We've seen it stronger this year after a blow out late last year and into January. Garth offers a technical view and below is the long term monthly chart of USD/ZAR. Long term monthly USD/ZAR chart We Get Mail Fouche Would there be any merit in the argument that Japan is 20 years ahead of "us" (USA Europe world markets that are applying QE) and we could be looking at similar years of sideways movement? Aaron I have an aunt who wants to start saving R10k p/m for the next 12 months. What can you advise as the most suitabl

Simon Shares US mattresses with Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH)? Paying more than double the last traded price? MTN looks all ugly. Forget the fine, forget over a billion Rands in associated costs. Nigerian and South African markets look weak and I still say they need to transition into being a data utility. That said there's a nice trade from around R122 - R140. SABMiller (JSE code: SAB) leaving the JSE on 11 October (most likely) after listing on the JSE in 1897 (just two years after being founded and a decade after the JSE was founded). SAB has been one of the key drivers of the Indi25 index over the last decade (SAB +472%, All Share +154%). They're going to leave a gapping hole. If you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask the Just One Lap team for their picks. The Fat Wallet Show goes where few are brave enough to trend. Renting vs. buying, what does the maths say? Keith McLachlan from Alpha Wealth Finding a local Berkshire Hathaway? Simon answered a listener questions suggesting that maybe Conduit Capit

Short zombie stocks Simon Shares Did you sell your dogs? Keith McLachlan commented on Conduit Capital and it's not all wannabe Berkshire Hathaway. Second session in the first Trading Master Class with IG was on Tuesday. We're looking at a CFD trading plan and this session went live on the IG platform looking for stocks and three buys popped up; Barclays Africa Group (JSE code: BGA), PSG & Woolies (JSE code: WHL). The Fat Wallet Show goes back to bonds because last time we started complicated which is not what Fat Wallets are about. Small is the new big says Trader Petri and we agree 100%. Short the zombie stocks We Get Mail Johan I would appreciate it very much if you could tell me where one would declare CFD trading outcomes on the SARS form. Have just spent 45 minutes on the phone to SARS help without making any progress. Sarah What about Bitcoin as an investment? Pipcoin is a scam. 123 Download the audio file here or subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes

Sell the dogs (sorry dogs) Simon Shares Ellies (JSE code: ELI) results were as ugly as expected and the company is being kept alive by their bankers at Standard Bank. Megatron is worthless after buying it for R180million in 2008 and spending some half billion keeping it afloat. A few weeks ago in FinWeek I said sell ELI at around 60c and I would not be a buyer now. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) results were not bad. They have got their cost down to $34/tonne from closer to $55 previously. It does mean less production to get the lower costs and the market is still in massive over supply but they at least now positioned to (likely) survive. SABMiller (JSE code: SAB) got an extra pound with the offering being revised to GBP45 but some minority shareholders are still not happy as the pound has weakened. One can hardly blame SAB or AB Inbev for that but the minority shareholders need 25% to block the deal and that's very unlikely. Kristia looks at ETF costs in her blog this week. The Fat Wallet Show takes Magnus Heystek