Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Unconscious Competence Maslow's theory of how we progress and ultimately become Unconscious Competent traders. Unconscious Incompetence Conscious Incompetence Conscious Competence Unconscious Competence JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Blitz round of result comments; Richemont* (JSE code: CFR) Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) Lonmin (JSE code: LON) Astral (JSE code: ARL) Vodacom (JSE code: VOD) Balwin (JSE code: BWN) * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; CoreShares investment disciplines & transactional website JSE Power Hour: Investing while junk JSE Power Hour: Ways that management can mislead investors CoreShares transactional website and some investing core principles We're running a promo with CoreShares this month including an event in Durban next Wednesday 24 May at the Riverside hotel (email info@coreshares.co.za for info or to book). This week Simon chats to Gareth Stobie about their new website that enables transacting in their ETFs and their three investment disciplines when saving for or already in retirement. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by J

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) announced that former CEO Basson would be exercising a put option to company forcing it to buy back some R1.8billion of Shoprite shares. No problem, except did we know about this put structure? They say it was part of his December 2003 employment contract, but the annual reports of 2003/4/5 make no mention of it? Adcorp (JSE code: ADR), horror update. They are really struggling. Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL). Everybody wants to know if I am selling, why would I be selling? Just because the price is down? Rational Intuitive, what type of investor are you?  * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Investing while junk JSE Power Hour: Ways that management can mislead investors How to trust your trading system Time and discipline is the best way to trust. My lazy system is now some 12 years old, so I know to trust it. But how do you get to trust a new system? I like the approach suggested by Mark Douglas in his book, Trading in the Zone. Back test (ey

Simon Shares You know Apple results were truly average when even the fan boys say it was just okay. But that pile of cash, over a quarter trillion US$! MTN update looks decent for South Africa and Nigeria. Still tough in both but at least revenue is improving. Locally April vehicle sales and PMI data both fell off a cliff. But with Easter in March last year we're not comparing apples with apples, so May will give us a clearer picture. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Investing while junk JSE Power Hour: Ways that management can mislead investors How much cash do we need to start? Trading or investing requires capital. As an investor one can start very small with just a couple hundred rand, but a trader requires a lot more in order to properly manage risk. So we look at the different options (CFDs, FX, ALSI and ALMI) and how much is required to start. We Get Mail Jing-Woei In a recent Finweek (30th March) magazine issue, I read about your view on the NFEMOM fund. I was wondering if you have also had a

Simon Shares Purple (JSE code: PPE) who own Easy Equities had a very rough set results and as they comment in the commentary they need a capital injection. What does tihs mean for the business and clients? @csavagegt247 @Richards_Karin @Caro1Graham @gary_dyk @EasyEquities Some more comforting news regarding EE's nominee First World Trader Nominees (FTW). Taken from their T&C's. pic.twitter.com/oXSELq2QDZ — Johann Biermann (@JohannBiermann1) April 25, 2017 Listed property or buy-to-let Power Hour was great, packed wth tons of details and the spreadsheet so you can crunch your own numbers. Kering results showed very strong growth for their luxury brands in Asia Pacific and this has spurred Richemont* (JSE code: CFR) higher. Details; Gucci +48% vs consensus +21%, Bottega Veneta +2% vs consensus -4%, Saint Laurent +33% vs consensus +19%. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) is loving the French election first round results. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Investing while junk * I hold ungeared positions. Tradi

Simon Shares UK snap election for 8 June and French first round presidential elections this Sunday. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results looking decent but stock remains expensive. Combined Motor Holdings (JSE code: CMH), amazing results in a tough space. Top management and solid balance sheet. World Bank cuts our 2017 growth target from their original 1.1% to 0.6%, after cabinet reshuffle and subsequent downgrades. How we hurt our trading Message from a trading friend; "I think the true art of trading is learning to be completely satisfied with your own objectives. Rather than constantly worrying about what could have been if ..." Trading is simple. Buy when the chart says buy, sell when it says sell and sit on your hands in-between. But we over think it, we believe in complexity and this hurts us. I did not go short over the long weekend because, well politicians. I decide that I needed a new rule about 4 day weekends, do not hold over them? In truth I have been trading my ALSI systems all through recent

Simon Shares Our banks are now being downgraded by S&P and Fitch, this is to be expected. Tongaat*, I have been buying and now have full allocation. Still my preferred second tier portfolio pick. Taste selling jewelry and doubling down on international food brands with another rights issue coming. Japan, worth investing in? Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Listed property instead or buy-to-let * I hold ungeared positions. Capitec* - should we worry? Lots of concern abut rising bad debts and how this will impact Capitec. They identify three risks; market, credit & business. Rescheduling is a risk that concerns many but Capitec defends it in being better business and they have over 200% provisions on arrears and they are well ahead of Basel 3 2019 requirements. Further when they reschedule a loan they increase provisions against non payment. They have been declining more loans and have been tightening credit granting criteria since April 2015 and now 92% of the value of a loan is provided for when

Down we go Standard and Poors downgraded our offshore foreign debt, not ZAR debt. This is about 10% of total SA debt. Technically we're not junk as that requires two agencies to rate us junk. But all said this is bad and expected and our portfolios should have been ready and waiting. It took countries like Uruguay, Croatia, Ireland etc. on average 7 years to regain their investment grade status after falling to junk! Columbia took 12 years and over the last 19 years, S&P has downgraded 23 countries to junk status, of those only 6 recovered, shortest recovery time was 5 years. How does it hurt? Debt costs for the country go up, so higher taxes and less government spending. Interest rates higher and rand weaker putting pressure on the middle class. Poor will be hurt with real damage is done to the middle class. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Lim

Simon Shares Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) through results got everybody talking about the "arrears coverage ratio" dropping to 208% vs. 223% previously and vs. 196% in 2015. This got all the attention last time as well, I not concerned and my 'aggressive' buy price is now around R719. I have some USD expenses due in the next week or so and have taken a hedge using NEWUSD* just in case. Anchor Capital results showed a serious slowing of growth but still a stock with a great looking future and at around 600c very attractive. I have bene trying to add to my very very small Sea Harvest* holding but I don't want to chase the stock as I think we may see some weakness in the weeks ahead. 1275c would be my ideal entry. It traded 1270c last week, but I wasn't paying attention and missed them. UK has triggered Brexit and now Scotland wants out of the UK. A really excellent post by Kristia on bond ETFs. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Listed property instead or buy-to-let * I hold ungeared positions. Protecting yourse

Simon Shares Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) through R800. This is why I don't try time exits on long-term investments. Things can get crazy. Pembury is listing their schools division and it will likely do well on listing but I am not convinced and am not applying for allocation. Has the Trump rally hit a wall? Most of the cash for my Sea Harvest allocation has reappeared in my brokerage account, suggesting I got 3.8% allocation. We'll see how it trades as to whether I buy more in open market sell and run. I would like to hold in my second tier portfolio, but only if the numbers work and if it spikes madly on day one I will more likely sell into the spike and wait for things to settle. * I hold ungeared positions. Buying Bitoin (Code: BTC) Started in October 2008 with zero value as the first crypto currency it now trades around US$1,100 and has an ardent fan base. The questions are if it is the future of money? CoinMarketCap lists over 750 crypto currencies with a total market cap of over USD24billion. That said B

Simon Shares Anchor Capital (JSE code: ACG) been getting pounded, after almost 2000c in late 2015 now around 600c. HomeChoice International (JSE code: HIL) is an online machine at making money, but liquidity is zero. Four trades this months and a spread of 1400c / 3540c. So just avoid. Oil under pressure, good for fishing companies and motorists. Sasol* (JSE code: SOL) has some hedges at around $47 and is looking good for a buy at around R360. Last week I commented was looking to pick up more Tongaat* (JSE code: TON) around R123.50 then then the drought update and stock has flown, now R133. I have updated most of the prices to be paid for my death till us part stocks here. Standard & Poors still rattling around pondering a downgrade for SA. Next release in June and then December by when they have to either downgrade us or remove the negative outlook. Choppies (JSE code: CHP) results tough as they try and take on the big guns on their back yard. Blue Label (JSE code: BLU) about to buy Cell C, I not impres

Simon Shares Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) results were modest but the dividend was up 18% at 13c and core operations also increased 18%. You can now buy shares in the South African Reserve Bank! But should you? Sea Harvest (JSE code: SHG) will be listing later this month. I will apply for allocation. Tongaat* (JSE code: TON) is coming under some selling pressure down to around R123.50. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Finding that perfect share JSE Power Hour: Anthony Clark 2017 small cap picks * I hold ungeared positions. Is Buffett a value investor? @JustOneLap @SimonPB Please also make mention of Buffett's 180 degree flip and new love affair with 'cheap' airlines — Wes Hellyar (@WesHellyar) March 7, 2017 It is well known that Warren Buffett learnt investing from the father of value investing - Benjamin Graham and many still consider Buffett to be the worlds greatest value investor. But while he may be the worlds greatest investor he is not a value investor having abandoned that strategy way back. If

Simon Shares New tax year and I have already loaded another R33k into my tax-free account and will be buying as per our high risk model portfolio. The annual Buffett letter was published last weekend. Always good reading, I especially like his comments on buying assets with shares (and hence paying a fortune). He also updates on his bet on the VOO vs. hedge funds (spoiler, VOO wining by a mile). The AGM will be webcast here on 6 May. We update the momentum portfolio stocks for 2017/8. Last years return was -5.2% after all costs and behind the benchmark so disappointing. I am NOT re-entering the portfolio this year for two reasons. Too much stuff and the ABSA NFEMOM ETF now uses my methodology and is more tax efficient. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Finding that perfect share JSE Power Hour: Anthony Clark 2017 small cap picks Becoming a trader The most frequent question Simon gets is about becoming a trader and his first answer is always the same, it will take time. Lots of time. In this weeks podcas

The budget and your investments Simon Shares Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR) mystery buyer is out, ATM Holding, Munich with now almost 25% stake in MUR. So now what, surely they don't want just 25%? Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) merger is off and their results were excellent. I am a double happy shareholder. Adcock Ingram (JSE code: AIP) results show turn around happening but share price seems to be pricing this in already on PE of over 20x. Mediclinic (JSE code: MEI), Al Noor a less than rosy acquisition for the company. Why do these big deals always seem to go wrong? Upcoming events Momentum portfolio stock picks for 2017/8 JSE Power Hour: Finding that perfect share JSE Power Hour: Anthony Clark 2017 small cap picks * I hold ungeared positions. Budget 2017 and your investments Key highlights and how they'll impact various investments; Tax-free - annual limit increased to R33,000 a year. Effective 1 March 2017, NOT this tax year. Dividend Withholding Tax (DWT) up from 15% to 20%. Capital gains

Simon Shares ZAR X and 4AX exchanges are coming. But do they have any listings we care about and are we able to trade them with our current brokers. Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO) very impressive and cost per tonne is well down from over $40 to $29, but no dividend. Brait* (JSE code: BAT) shows what a mess New Look as they slice R10billion of the NAV to R8.7billion, and the UK just released best unemployment rate in 11 years but wages under pressure. Rand heading for R13/US$, no surprises as it one of my predictions for 2017. Question is how much stronger and as important any strengthening will not be in a straight line. Full list of ETFs that can be used in a tax-free account. Upcoming events Momentum portfolio stock picks for 2017/8 JSE Power Hour: Finding that perfect share JSE Power Hour: Anthony Clark 2017 small cap picks * Simon holds ungeared positions. Trading tax-free accounts In last weeks JSE Power Hour on tax-free investing Simon mentioned trading a tax-free account. This got many excited

Simon Shares Now Sea Harvest coming to market mid March hot on the heels of Premier Fishing. Spar (JSE code: SPP) another weak retailer trading update, BuildIt very weak, local weak, Ireland alright but hurt but currency and Switzerland also poor. MTN (JSE code: MTN) reports they will have a headline loss for FY2016 after a 1204c HEPS in FY2015. Lots of reasons, mostly Nigeria. Two new Satrix ETFs coming. One property (capped at 10% per stock) and a government inflation-linked bond ETF. Understanding the DCCUSD ETF that tracks US Treasury Bonds. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Tax-free investing Momentum portfolio stock picks for 2017/8 JSE Power Hour: Finding that perfect share JSE Power Hour: Anthony Clark 2017 small cap picks Jean Pierre Verster Portfolio Manager - Fairtree Capital Chatting market fears and opportunities specifically; Hudaco (JSE code: HDC), Naspers (JSE code: NPN), MTN and Invicta (JSE code: IVT). We Get Mail Anton Do you know why I am paying double the share price to purchase a

Simon Shares African Phoenix (JSE code: AXL) is back and trading around 55c after a trading update suggesting around 3c HEPS for the first half. With a potential for maybe 8c-10c HEPS for the FY17 that's a PE of around 5x. Local markets gained 4.8% in January, this time last year after a horrid January everybody was saying 'as goes January so goes the year". Well they was wrong and what January does is only what January does, not the rest of the year. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Tax-free investing Momentum portfolio stock picks for 2017/8 JSE Power Hour: Finding that perfect share JSE Power Hour: Anthony Clark 2017 small cap picks Investment clubs A few requests on investment clubs; how to set them up, manage them, regulations etc. So here's my views, ideas and suggestion for getting your own investment club off the ground. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherw

Abils back Simon Shares African Bank (Abil) returns to the JSE on Wednesday as African Phoenix Investments (JSE code: AXL). I never expected that, a busted bank survives, albeit this is not the banking assets, just insurance. Top40 index at highs for the year, ya I know it early days and as Stuart reminded me on Twitter the Springboks are also unbeaten for the year. Huge trading update from Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO) as iron prices were markedly higher. Too much stuff, sell everything. Wow a huge response and all positive except for two people who said I would miss the garden and everybody wants my books. Also a lot of requests that I keep people in the loop as to process etc. No comments on my potential portfolio restructuring. Up coming events; Four events loaded, find them here. We Get Mail Lucky Hi Simon, want to start TFSA acc ,is there a way to add RSA Retail bonds into the TFSA? Michael Would you recommend setting up a tax-free savings account through FNB? Charmaine Tax saving in ABSA

Too much stuff, sell it all Simon Shares Local retail sales updates thus far are poor. Standouts; Mr Price (JSE code: MRP) still getting their lunch handed to them, Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) is a retail monster with rest of Africa booming. * I hold ungeared positions. Too much stuff I'm calling it life style creep when you wake up one morning and my large house is no longer big enough. We're surely doing it wrong? So my lovely wife an I are pushing back, down scaling into a small apartment and getting rid of 95% of our stuff. Pretty much everything except essential furniture, share portfolio (some portfolios are potentially under the hammer) and art. We simple have too much stuff and a simpler life with less stuff is in order. Bigger picture is to become a digital nomad living in AirBNB apartments; watching whales from Stillbaai in August / September and so on. But it starts with less stuff.

The 2017 predictions show Every year the first JSE Direct of the year is our annual predictions show. Marc Ashton, GM at Moneyweb, Keith McLachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Just One Lap founder Simon Brown review their predictions from the previous year and make their top three predictions for 2017. They then also make a call on the Top40 and ZAR/US$ for the year. You can find the 2016 edition here.   JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.