Thedutylife's Podcast

Impostors’ prophets   Prediction illusion   After Donald trump got the nomination of Republican Party, a democrat to win the next presidency of the US by 9/11/2016 Ebola propagation to be worldwide by end 2016 After Brexit, EU likely to collapse No more food in 25 years from now, only pills to be swallowed Daily consultants, experts and media assail us with prediction but how credible and reliable are they? Well Philipp fetlock in his blockbuster, bestseller book: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Over a period of  decade meaning 10 years, investigated close to 28,361prediction from 284 self-appointed experts or if you want self-proclaimed professionals.    Surprise – surprise, the result of their accuracy turn out to, in year in the row to pure random coincidence. What is more striking is that – the semi illiterates were way better than the experts.     A pure most vivid example is the most recent one in the presidential election in the US. Guess what the republican nominee Donald