Hidden Forces

In Episode 401 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas shares his recent appearance on the Grant Williams podcast in which he and Grant discuss how the interplay of political power, technology, and moral decline in society are driving the unraveling of the social order as we pass through the final stages of what Neil Howe has famously described as “The Fourth Turning.” Demetri and Grant explore how cyclical historical theories apply to today’s turbulent geopolitics, emphasizing the rise of populism, shifting alliances, and eroding trust in institutions. Kofinas highlights the role of media in shaping collective narratives and exacerbating societal fault lines, while Williams calls attention to the erosion of personal accountability—an absence that fuels trends in financial nihilism and accelerates the broader moral decline of American life. This decay, they argue, extends to the country’s political structures and the integrity of its financial markets. The conversation also touches on the fragility of complex syst

In Episode 400 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Federico Sturzenegger, the current head of the Ministry of Deregulation and State Transformation under President Javier Milei in Argentina. Demetri asks Sturzenegger about Argentina’s political and economic history in the 20th century, comparing its industrial model, capital markets, and political system to those of the United States. They then explore President Milei’s initiatives to overhaul Argentina’s political economy—including market reforms, changes to labor laws, industry regulations, and price controls. The conversation covers the progress made so far, the challenges that remain, lessons for the United States, and the Milei government’s broader mission to transform the Argentine state and fulfill its mandate of restoring economic prosperity and freedom to a nation that was once among the wealthiest and most resource-rich in the world. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligenc

In Episode 399 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas interviews Bowtied Mara about Argentina’s political history, its economy, the local real estate market, the energy sector, and President Javier Milei’s efforts to revive growth, combat inflation, and liberalize the country’s economy. In the first hour, Mara and Demetri explore Argentina’s political history and the roots of its economic decline, drawing comparisons with the United States during the pivotal decades of the 1930s and 1940s. They delve into the legacy of Juan Perón, the significance of Peronismo in Argentine politics, what defines a Peronista, and why Javier Milei’s libertarian approach and his election as Argentina’s 59th president mark a departure from the country’s history of alternating between Marxist and fascist regimes. In the second hour, the discussion shifts to Milei’s master plan, his initial priorities upon taking office, and the strategies he’s employing to achieve his political goals. They examine specific policy changes already enact

In Episode 398 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Kennox Strategic Value Fund investment directors Charles Heenan and Geoff Legg about their investment framework and macro worldview. Known for their focus on top-quality, sector-leading companies, Charles and Geoff share valuable insights about what it takes to build and manage a portfolio with a long-term, value-driven perspective. This conversation explores the challenge of finding value in a world that seems to have gone absolutely insane. Not only are developed economies facing challenges and confronting headwinds that require us to think differently about investment risk, but many market participants seem to be increasingly indifferent to value as an anchor for assessing an asset’s investment worthiness and the price they are willing to pay in order to own it. In the first hour, Demetri asks Charles Heenan and Geoff Legg about their value investment framework and how it informs—and is shaped by—their macro worldview. They also delve into the p

In Episode 397 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, about the macroeconomic factors driving the recent rise in bond yields and a range of other variables shaping the economies of the U.S., Europe, and China, as well as their impact on investors' portfolios. In the first hour, Bianco and Kofinas analyze the factors behind the surge in long-term interest rates across the developed world. Their discussion covers the Federal Reserve's role, concerns about government debt and deficits, inflation, tariff policies, and economic growth expectations amid these potential challenges. In the second hour, they shift their focus to the implications of these changes for investors. They explore the resilience—or lack thereof—of the traditional 60/40 portfolio and strategies for mitigating portfolio volatility in a market environment where stocks and bonds increasingly move in tandem. Additionally, Demetri and Jim examine the drivers of U.S. dollar stren

In Episode 396 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Christine Rosen about her book, “Extinction of Experience: Being Human in a Disembodied World,” which explores the cultural and emotional shifts that accompany our embrace of technology and its effects on our experience of life as embodied human beings. Christine is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where she focuses on American history, society and culture, and technology and human behavior. Rosen is also a monthly columnist for Commentary Magazine, one of the cohosts of the popular Commentary Podcast. Demetri and Christine spend the first hour of their conversation focused on the philosophical and moral questions that arise from our unreserved embrace of virtual realities and mediated experiences. They explore questions about the nature of reality, how embodiment shapes experience, and whether the virtualization of our lives is the natural progression of our interplay with technology or if it represents something fundamentally

In Episode 395 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor about the recent revision in the Fed’s summary of economic projections, the investment opportunities in Latin America, the economic effects of the war in Syria, the state of the outgoing Biden administration, and the economic prospects associated with a second and more invigorated Trump administration in 2025. They spend the first hour discussing how Fed policy, demographics, and systematic passive flows continue to drive mean reversion in equity markets and whether the most recent drawdown is yet another opportunity to buy-the-dip or if the downside risk to investors is beginning to outweigh the fear of missing out on the next rally. In the second hour, Demetri, Zach, and Chase discuss the political and economic experiment being undertaken by Javier Milei’s administration in Argentina, whether the country is becoming investable again, how it may serve as a role model for neighboring countries in Latin America, and how

In Episode 394 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with geopolitical analyst and forecaster Kamran Bokhari about the fall of Damascus and the implications of Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in Syria for the balance of power in the Middle East. Kamran last came on the podcast a year ago to discuss the violence ignited by Hamas’ October 7th attacks, the nature and scope of Iranian involvement, and how various regional actors, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, and Hezbollah were exploiting the growing disorder for their own advantage as the Biden administration struggled to stabilize a region that was on the verge of another major war. That war has seemingly come and gone, leaving Iran’s influence network along the Shia crescent from Damascus to Beirut, along with its proxies and affiliates in utter devastation or full-on retreat. Assad’s departure and the fall of his regime in Syria are the equivalent of a geopolitical earthquake and are already dramatically changing the balance of power in the Middle

In Episode 393 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Herman Mark Schwartz, a professor in the Politics department of the University of Virginia and the author of three books on economic development, globalization, and the geopolitics of the subprime mortgage crisis. Demetri and Mark discuss an article that he recently co-authored in American Affairs about AI’s potential to create a new growth wave of creative destruction that could rival or surpass those of previous innovation cycles, with enormous implications for business, society, and the role of government in the economy. They discuss what these so-called “Schumpeterian” growth waves typically look like, how they create complex interactions across all facets of the economy, and how they ultimately exhaust themselves, making room for the birth of a new innovation cycle. In the second hour, Mark and Demetri apply this framework to the growth wave that we have been living through for more or less the last 50 years and which now appears to be in the

In Episode 392 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with author, investor, and financial historian Russell Napier, about how to navigate a seminal transition in the global trade and monetary order. This episode aims to provide you with the tools to understand, value, and manage the assets, exposures, and risks in your portfolios and to capitalize on opportunities that come along only once every hundred years. In the first hour, Demetri and Russell Napier discuss the origins of the non-system that came to shape international trade and finance in the decades after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods international system of fixed exchange rates. They discuss the de-pegging of the RMB from the USD, the closing of the gap between the discount rate and the growth rate in developed economies, and the implications of America’s escalating economic war against China. In the second hour, which is available to premium subscribers only, Russell Napier and Kofinas focus most of their time on the implications of this br

In Episode 391 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Wolfgang Münchau, the director and co-founder of Eurointelligence and the author of a phenomenal new book about post-WWII Germany, the rise and fall of the German economy, its industrial sector, and the end of what he dubs “The German Miracle.” Wolfgang Münchau and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode laying the foundation to help listeners understand how Germany became the economic and financial juggernaut that we have known it to be throughout the 1990s and most of the 21st century. They discuss the two pillars of the German economy, the supercharging of its industrial growth model during the period of globalization and unipolarity, and the cultural, technological, and geopolitical sources of its economic decline. In the second hour, Kofinas and Münchau zero in on the ten structural sources of weakness for the German economy, including the German capital model and banking system, a corporatism that misaligns incentives between the interes

In Episode 390 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Rupa Subramanya, a journalist at the Free Press, about the de-banking of political dissidents, censorship, and the “right to die.” Rupa first came on Demetri’s radar for the work she has done writing about what is known as “de-banking:” the closure of people's or organizations' bank accounts by financial institutions that perceive the account holders to pose a financial, legal, regulatory, or reputational risk to the organization. They speak extensively about her work in this area, along with her writings about political censorship of conservative voices and the right-to-die movement in the Netherlands and Canada, between the first and second hours. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to spec

In Episode 389 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Andy Constan, the founder and proprietor of Damped Spring Advisors about why he believes the Federal Reserve is at risk of losing the long-end of the bond market, which would lead to a reacceleration of inflation and a hard landing for the economy. Andy and Demetri spend the first hour discussing the subject of a recent letter he published in which he warns that the Federal Reserve, by continuing to lower interest rates and ease monetary policy, could cause a sell-off in long-bonds and a rise in term premia, paradoxically tightening financial conditions while intending to ease them. They further discuss Treasury issuance, management of the Fed’s balance sheet, the weighted average maturity of assets in the central bank’s portfolio, and how conditions in the U.S. economy measure against the Fed’s summary of economic projections. In the second hour, Kofinas and Constan dig into the government’s finances, its fiscal picture, and how Trump’s election m

In Episode 388 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with semiconductor expert Chris Miller about the state and future of the semiconductor industry in the context of Trump’s 2024 U.S. electoral victory, with all its implications for industrial policy, defense spending, tariffs, export controls, trade wars, and much more. This conversation is a deep-dive into the semiconductor supply chain. Kofinas and Miller discuss how money is currently being allocated under the CHIPS and Science Act, the progress being made in domestic U.S. semiconductor fabrication, the challenges facing TSMC’s Arizona facility, and the troubles at Intel. They also take a hard look at the outcomes resulting from the U.S. semiconductor export and end-use controls implemented against China, how effective or ineffective they’ve been, and ways to improve them. They also assess China’s own efforts at building out its domestic chip ecosystem and some of the loopholes that Chinese companies are systematically exploiting in order to become fu

In Episode 387 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with political analyst, author, and host of “Beyond the Polls,” Henry Olsen about the state of the 2024 presidential race and what to expect from what could be the most contested election in American history. Henry tells us how each candidate is performing in the key swing states and districts that will determine this election, the frequency of early voting and how it compares to 2020, and shares his views on other predictive metrics that he is paying close attention to. Henry believes that this election could be even closer than the one in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore, an election that was ultimately determined by a narrow margin of 537 votes, along with a ruling by the Florida Supreme court to suspend any further recounts. The country is in a very different place today than it was two decades ago, and how any remotely similar scenario would play out this time is truly anyone’s guess. Olsen and Kofinas also discuss the economic repercussions

In Episode 386 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, Joshua Landis about two possible futures for the Middle East: The first will be defined by perpetual conflict, insecurity, and the specter of nuclear proliferation. The second would be defined by a tenuous, albeit hopeful, peace built on compromise and regional security. Professor Landis explains why he believes that this choice is now upon us and that we are at a turning point in the Middle East that provides us with a glimpse into what the future of this conflict-ridden region will look like and how it will fit into the larger global security order (or disorder) that is currently emerging. Between the first and second hours of this conversation, Dr. Landis and Kofinas discuss the wider war between Israel and Iran, the implications of the ongoing war in Lebanon, the Israeli war and occupation of Gaza, the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, the future of the P

In Episode 385 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Adam Butler, the CIO of Resolve Asset Management, an alternative asset management firm that focuses on providing cutting-edge, globally diversified, and systematic investment strategies that are non-correlated to traditional portfolios. In the first hour, we explore the structural changes that our economy has undergone since the 2008 financial crisis, along with their consequences for market accountability, monetary policy, and the stability of our political economy, all in the context of discussing Adam’s approach to financial modeling and systematic investing. In the second hour, we engage in an expansive and valuable discussion about the mind-bending progress being made in artificial intelligence, how it is already disrupting multi-trillion-dollar industries, the incredible promise that this technology holds, and the dangers that it poses to the stability of our economies and political systems. You can subscribe to our premium content and access

In Episode 384 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bob Elliott, the co-founder and CEO of Unlimited, a financial services firm that uses machine learning to create products that replicate the index returns of alternative investments. Demetri asked Bob Elliott back on the podcast today to discuss the big macroeconomic story everyone’s been talking about, which is the Fed’s pivot from fighting inflation to supporting the labor market by cutting interest rates into an apparently strong economy. Bob and Demetri discuss what sorts of consequences this new policy stance may have, especially if consumers and businesses seek to take on more debt. This would move us from what has largely been an income-driven business cycle to a credit-driven one, potentially adding rocket fuel to an otherwise already strong economy. The two also discuss China's economic conditions, the importance of the recently announced stimulus, and how China’s economy matters not only to Chinese investors but also to those with no dire

In Episode 383 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with James Aitken, a financial markets veteran and advisor to many of the world’s most powerful, sophisticated, and successful investors. In the first hour, Demetri and James discuss all that has changed since Aitken was last on the podcast three years ago, which came just as the world had started to re-open from Covid and before the Fed began its very long and determined tightening cycle in the Spring of 2022. They discuss the Fed’s recent 50 basis point rate cut, its renewed focus on supporting the labor market (possibly at the expense of inflation), and why James Aitken believes this is a profound regime change in monetary policy that investors need to understand and incorporate into their investment frameworks going forward. In the second hour, Aitken and Kofinas apply the framework they developed in the first hour to help listeners understand a set of interlocking macroeconomic, political, and geopolitical challenges facing investors. These include

In Episode 382 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jacob Ware, an expert in domestic and international terrorism, counterterrorism, and assassination, about the growing U.S. assassination and terror threat ahead of the 2024 elections. Jacob and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation discussing the two recent assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump, what we know about both assassins, the breakdowns in security, and what needs to happen going forward if we want to avoid a potentially successful attempt on the former president’s life. Demetri and Jacob also discuss the growing trend in assassination attempts and compare the terror threat posed by organizations inspired by leftist ideology with that posed by right-wing extremists. In the second hour, the two discuss the terrifying threat posed by dual-use technologies and their deployment in both international and civil wars. They also discuss whether a civil war in the United States is possible, what such a war would look l