China In The World

The result of the upcoming U.S. presidential election will directly impact how the United States, China, and Russia approach issues on the Korean Peninsula. How would a second Trump or first Biden administration deal with North Korea? How do policymakers in Beijing and Moscow evaluate their relations with Pyongyang? During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Carnegie experts Alexander Gabuev and Tong Zhao about the outlook for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the role of the United States, China, and Russia.

Why has the coronavirus crisis evolved into a contest of systems between the United States and China? What is driving China’s “wolf warriors?” Can Washington and Beijing construct more effective official dialogue mechanisms to address bilateral problems? On this episode, Paul Haenle and Zha Daojiong, professor of international political economy at Peking University, have a wide-ranging discussion on U.S.-China relations. Haenle and Zha analyze the many factors driving a downward spiral in U.S.-China relations and the outlook for bilateral ties ahead of the U.S. presidential election. They end the discussion reflecting on steps that both Washington and Beijing should take to pull the relationship back from the brink.

U.S.-China relations are more adversarial than at any time in decades. The risk of confrontation or conflict has significantly increased, and domestic politics in both countries have exacerbated tensions. What role does ideology play in the ongoing deterioration of the relationship, and how will it impact future bilateral ties? In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Jie Dalei, associate professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University, to discuss the role of ideology in the U.S.-China relationship and its impact on consequential bilateral issues like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and COVID-19.

On June 15, a month-long border standoff between Chinese and Indian forces escalated into a bloody conflict. A week later, former National Security Advisor John Bolton released his tell-all book revealing troubling positions taken by President Trump on China. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Chen Dingding, professor of international relations at Jinan University and founding director of the Intellisia Institute, to better understand how these developments are being viewed in China and analyze their implications for the U.S.-China relationship and upcoming presidential elections.

As nations confront the pandemic, rumors of Kim Jung-un’s death and a flurry of North Korean missile tests injected even more uncertainty in the international landscape. How do views in Washington, Seoul, and Beijing differ or align on North Korea? What are the prospects for the resumption of diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang? And how do tensions on the Korean Peninsula affect Northeast Asia more broadly? Paul Haenle spoke with other Carnegie experts Chung Min Lee and Tong Zhao for a live recording of the China in the World podcast, where they discuss the outlook for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Asia Pacific.

Paul Haenle is hosting a special live episode of the China in the World Podcast this Friday, May 15, at 9 PM EST. Join Paul and other Carnegie experts Chung Min Lee and Tong Zhao for a discussion on the outlook for denuclearization efforts on the Korean peninsula and shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific.A link to the event can be found here: https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/15/china-in-world-interactive-podcast-coronavirus-and-korean-peninsula-event-7328

China is facing growing international scrutiny due to its initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak. Countries are increasingly questioning the motives underlying Beijing’s recent international aid efforts, and there is growing concern over developments in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and Hong Kong. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Xie Tao, dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University, to better understand China’s perspective on recent pushback against Beijing, the implications of regional security developments, and China’s role in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

The coronavirus outbreak has highlighted the many issues in the U.S.–China relationship. Why can’t Washington and Beijing better coordinate a response to the pandemic, replicating their cooperative efforts during the 2008 financial crisis and 2014 Ebola outbreak? Paul Haenle spoke with Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on the dynamics preventing bilateral cooperation and the implications for a post-coronavirus world.

The U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the expiration of the New START treaty in 2021 threaten to derail decades-long efforts to maintain an effective global arms control regime. In this episode, Tong Zhao spoke with Richard Weitz, senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, about the deterioration of global arms control institutions and its effects on U.S.-China relations and regional nonproliferation efforts to contain North Korea and Iran's nuclear ambitions.Weitz argued that the U.S. withdrawal from the INF treaty stemmed from Russia’s repeated violations of the agreement and had little to do with China. Weitz said, however, that Beijing must be included in any new negotiations despite the difficulties of implementing trilateral arms control agreements. Furthermore, Weitz highlighted Beijing’s crucial role in either resuscitating the crumbling Iran nuclear agreement or negotiating a new one. On North Korea, Weit

Recent speeches by Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated the Trump administration’s China-related grievances, yet they also revealed a new openness to engagement with China. Paul Haenle spoke with Michael Swaine, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how a more thoughtful approach to the bilateral relationship might look, as well as what recent changes in the Trump administration’s rhetoric about Beijing reveal. Swaine said Beijing’s transformation into a more ideological, party-driven, assertive, and capable power has raised questions in the United States over the efficacy of engagement. The Trump administration, however, has been too simplistic in its assessment of China and presented a one-dimensional “cartoonish” picture of Beijing. In doing so, it has failed to articulate a nuanced approach that addresses the real challenges China pose. Recent polls highlight that most Americans still prefer positive relations with Beijing but are concern

The U.S. strike on Qasem Soleimani took the world by surprise and has enormous implications for U.S. relations not only with Iran, but also with the rest of the Middle East and the international community. How have news of the attack and other related developments been received in China? Just days after the January 3rd strike, Paul Haenle spoke with Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University, to discuss China’s view on the killing of Soleimani and developments since.

Is the current downturn in U.S.-China relations different from anything the two countries have experienced before? Paul Haenle sat down with Daniel Russel, vice president for International Security and Diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute and former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, to reflect on why bilateral relations have deteriorated and what each country can do to right the ship, as well as expectations for diplomacy on the Korean peninsula in 2020.Russel said the ongoing downturn in U.S.-China ties is different from past pendulum swings and that there is a real possibility the two countries could enter a downward spiral that would be difficult to reverse. He attributed part of the deterioration to China’s growing assertiveness and exploitative economic practices, many of which have provoked the United States, as well as other countries, to push back. Russel also highlighted the Trump administration’s abandonment of a multilateral, deliberate, and solutions-oriente

Shortly before the United States and China announced that they had reached a “Phase One” trade deal, Paul Haenle sat down with Andy Rothman, principal advisor at the investment firm Matthews Asia and former head of macroeconomics and domestic policy at the U.S. embassy in Beijing. The two discussed the trade dispute, whether the U.S. policy of economic engagement with China failed, and the trade deal.Rothman argued that, contrary to the dominant narrative in Washington, engagement has accomplished many of the goals it was designed to achieve. China has dramatically liberalized its economy, is one of the largest markets for U.S. companies, and is a source of cheap goods for American consumers. He argued decoupling is both impractical, given how integrated the two economies have become and how much U.S. companies rely on the Chinese market, and politically unfeasible, insofar as U.S. allies would be reluctant to back the effort. A more viable strategy would be to focus on achieving limited goals, such as securi

At the beginning of 2019, Paul Haenle and Tong Zhao, Carnegie–Tsinghua Center Senior Fellow, discussed the outlook for denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula on the China in the World podcast. As 2019 draws to a close, Haenle and Zhao sat down again to analyze developments involving North Korea, the United States, and China over the past year and discuss Kim Jong-un’s end of year deadline for the United States to change its approach to denuclearization negotiations.Zhao pointed to Trump and Kim’s failure to reach an agreement at the Hanoi Summit as the biggest surprise in developments relating to diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula in 2019. In the wake of the summit and following a series of unproductive working-level talks, Kim is ramping up pressure on the United States to extract concessions, Zhao said. Pyongyang only wants a limited agreement from Washington that would see the relaxation of the most stringent United Nations Security Council sanctions in return for some controls on North Korea’s nuclear pr

In October 2019, Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Delaware Senator Chris Coons, delivered speeches laying out their respective visions for the U.S.-China relationship. In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute at the Wilson Center, about American and Chinese reactions to the speeches and the implications for the bilateral relationship. “America has woken up to the dangers of China,” Daly said. There is agreement that the bilateral relationship will be more competitive but a lack of consensus on a comprehensive strategy going forward. Daly argued the speeches by Pence, Pompeo, and Coons articulated different strategies for future engagement. Coons laid out an approach in which competition and cooperation with China are not mutually exclusive. He advocated for the United States to revitalize domestic policies that spur economic growth and uphold U.S. values. Alternatively, Pompeo and Pence put forth more confrontational visions for the

Discussion of U.S.-China-Russia relations often focuses on how American policy is driving Moscow and Beijing closer together. This analysis, however, ignores important factors limiting cooperation between China and Russia and preventing the two countries from forming an alliance. Paul Haenle sat down with Carnegie scholars Dmitri Trenin, Eugene Rumer, and Alexander Gabuev to discuss constraints on the China-Russia relationship and their implications for U.S. policy.Trenin, Rumer, and Gabuev agreed that there are clear limits to further China-Russia cooperation. Trenin characterized the relationship as an “entente” driven by a high degree of mutual strategic understanding on common core interests. Gabuev argued that China’s rapid pace of growth relative to Russia’s has led to insecurities in the Kremlin despite their growing economic, military, and technological ties. Russia does not want the relationship to become too asymmetrical and fears becoming overly reliant on Beijing for economic and technological sup

The U.S.-China relationship is bad, and it’s getting worse. In part two of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Da Wei, assistant president and professor at the University of International Relations in Beijing, to discuss evolutions in China’s politics, economics, and foreign policy affecting the U.S.-China relationship.Da Wei argued that shifting domestic politics in China and the United States are negatively impacting bilateral ties. In Washington, there is no longer widespread support for engagement with China. In Beijing, debates over the role of the state in the economy, driven by a fear of falling into the middle-income trap, are limiting progress in implementing economic reforms. In the international sphere, China has abandoned its policy of “hide and bide” and is pursuing a more active foreign policy representative of it growing strength. The confluence of the above factors is exacerbating tensions between Beijing and Washington, as well as between China and other countries in the Asia-Pac

The U.S.-China relationship is bad, and it’s getting worse. In part one of this two-part podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Da Wei, assistant president of and professor at the University of International Relations in Beijing, to discuss Chinese perceptions of the Trump administration one month after the August 1st tariff announcements.Da Wei said the Trump administration has focused China’s attention on the need to address underlying issues in the bilateral relationship, but that it has overstepped. President Trump’s use of tariffs has hardened Chinese views and limited Beijing’s ability to make concessions, even if they are in China’s self-interest, without appearing weak. Trump’s decision to impose new tariffs on China following the Osaka G20 meeting and Shanghai negotiations reinforced Chinese views that Trump is unreliable and may even change his mind even if a deal is struck. Da Wei argued Trump’s objectives are different from those of his advisors. Officials in the administration have a range of economi

Temporary truces followed by rapid escalations in the U.S.-China trade war continue to hamper progress toward a lasting trade deal. Policymakers in Washington and Beijing are now preparing for the possibility of a protracted dispute, and the ramifications that accompany it. In this podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Jia Qingguo, professor at and former dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, about the many factors hampering trade negotiations and the deeper structural issues in the U.S.-China relationship. Haenle and Jia discuss the difficulties facing leaders in both countries as they grapple to resolve trade tensions while dealing with domestic politics, vested interest groups, and strong historical legacies.

In this episode, Paul Haenle spoke with Evan Medeiros, former special assistant to the president and senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, on escalating tensions between Japan and South Korea and the implications for the United States and China.