Asia's Developing Future

World oil price volatility affects the economies of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as their non-OPEC counterparts, but little attention is paid to non-OPEC economies, which don’t have a formal bloc to lobby for them. But non-OPEC energy exporters have taken a more significant role as oil demand has increased since the late 1990s. OPEC is no longer the main exporter, and the increased demand for oil, due in part to the rapid economic development of India and the People’s Republic of China, has led to a greater diversification of suppliers. Research by the Asian Development Bank Institute looks at one of the largest non-OPEC oil-exporting countries, the Russian Federation. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2JB3Wmn Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/impact-world-oil-prices-energy-exporting-economy-including-monetary-policy About the authors Victoriia Alekhina is a PhD candidate of economics at Keio University, Tokyo. Naoyuki Yoshino is dean of the Asian Development

Fintech or, more fully, financial technology, is the buzz word in the startup world. But while the winners in this revolution are entrepreneurs and investors, there are clear benefits for the developing world. According to a new book from the Asian Development Bank Institute, Labor Migration in Asia: Increasing the Development Impact of Migration through Finance and Technology, lowering the cost of remittances for Asian workers employed in other parts of the world will improve the overall socioeconomic outcomes of their countries of origin. The research on the benefits of remittances is clear. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development says a 10% rise in remittances—that is, money sent home to the region by its expatriate workers—could lead to a 3.5% fall in the number of people living in poverty. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2JJJ0wZ Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/labor-migration-asia About the event organizers and report editors Aladdin Rillo was with ADBI at the

Headlines about the rebirth of a trans-Pacific trade pact in Santiago, Chile in March have concentrated on the absence of the United States from the 11-nation agreement, or the trade gains expected for each of its signatories. But those aren’t the only issues at stake in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP-11, signed among Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Viet Nam. Other areas that may prove important include the aspects of the pact that deal with infrastructure investment and rules on capital flows and foreign investment. Grant Stillman, legal advisor to the Asian Development Bank Institute, explains what is at stake. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2sHpAy3 Read the blog post https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2018/03/next-generation-of-quality-development-and-investment-in-the-new-pacific-trade-pact/ About the speaker Grant Stillman is legal advisor to the Asian Development Bank Insti

As parts of the developed world tighten foreign worker laws and maintain a hostile rhetoric against “immigrants” and “refugees,” a new report shows Asian migrant workers add economic value to their new countries. US President Donald Trump is sending troops to the Mexican border to clamp down on unauthorized arrivals, and European leaders face a backlash for liberal migration policies, but Asian Development Bank Institute research debunks the myth that new migrants are a drain on the government’s coffers through welfare payments. It suggests new arrivals in countries, including Australia, Canada, the US, and New Zealand, do integrate into society by finding jobs at no cost to established residents. The report does not differentiate between the types of migrants, whether they be skilled, unskilled, or refugees, and focuses only on those born in Asia. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2Ln5Ash Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/labor-migration-asia About the event organizers and report edit

Ghost cities full of empty apartment blocks are evidence of the central government’s failure to slow booming house construction in the People’s Republic of China. Conflicting incentives for local government officials, and a lack of alternative investments in China, have meant even the toughest of restrictions haven’t been able to stop developers building ever more houses. The housing industry is a big part of China’s economy. Real estate accounts for one-sixth of its GDP, a quarter of total fixed asset investment, 14% of urban employment, and 20% of bank loans. Research done for the Asian Development Bank Institute finds that the central government has maintained a firm hand on the sector for the 20 years or so since widespread property ownership was first permitted. Xiaping Cao of Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University, Bihong Huang of the Asian Development Bank Institute, and Rose Neng Lai of the University of Macau argued such a policy loosens or tightens various control measures depending on wheth

A growth slowdown in the People’s Republic of China causing a decline in trade would be felt across Asia, with commodity exporters and trade partners closest to the country hit hardest. Although the region’s dependence on trade with China has been expanding fast, the effects of such a slowdown would not be catastrophic, says a new book published by the Asian Development Bank Institute. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2x7Fyau Read the book https://www.adb.org/publications/slowdown-prc-structural-factors-and-implications-asia About the authors Peter Morgan is co-chair of ADBI’s Research Department. Fan Zhai is the former managing director of the China Investment Corporation. About the book editors Peter Morgan is co-chair of the Research Department at the Asian Development Bank Institute. Justin Yi-fu Lin is director of the Center for New Structural Economics, Peking University, China. Guanghua Wan is director of the Institute of World Economy, Fudan University, China. Know more about ADBI’s work on PR

Domestic structural change is necessary if the People's Republic of China is to sustain economic growth of as high as 8% a year over the next 10 years. Research published in an Asian Development Bank Institute book, Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China, Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia, found the worldwide trade slowdown that followed the global financial crisis in 2008 is mostly to blame for the recent decline in China’s growth rate. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2IH1aPj Read the book https://www.adb.org/publications/slowdown-prc-structural-factors-and-implications-asia About the book editors Peter Morgan is co-chair of the Research Department at the Asian Development Bank Institute. Justin Yi-fu Lin is director of the Center for New Structural Economics, Peking University, China. Guanghua Wan is director of the Institute of World Economy, Fudan University, China. Know more about ADBI’s work on PRC https://bit.ly/2vVC0Yi https://bit.ly/2vQ3fDf

The bulk of Asia’s exports runs through, rather than to, the People’s Republic of China, leaving the region more exposed to downturns and anti-trade sentiments in developed countries than to a domestic slowdown in China. Governments should promote domestic growth and trade within Asia to lessen that exposure, economists argue in a new book by the Asian Development Bank Institute, Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China, Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia. Peter Morgan, co-chair of the research department at ADBI and one of the editors of the book, explains the conclusions of a paper by Willem Thorbecke of Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2KO2jD0 Read the book https://www.adb.org/publications/slowdown-prc-structural-factors-and-implications-asia About the author Willem Thorbecke is a senior fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. About the book editors Peter Morgan is co-chair of the Research Depar

The nature of the People’s Republic of China’s growth slowdown is a key question for the global economy. If it’s a bump in the road, growth in China should soon return to a high rate that can help support global growth. If it reflects deeper problems, the world may have to live without the contribution that has come to be expected from China’s hard-charging economy. Economists must first determine the factors behind China’s growth, which poses statistical problems. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2rurpP7 Read the book https://www.adb.org/publications/slowdown-prc-structural-factors-and-implications-asia About the author Harry X. Wu, professor at the Institute of Economic Research at Japan’s Hitotsubashi University. About the book editors Peter Morgan is co-chair of the Research Department at the Asian Development Bank Institute. Justin Yi-fu Lin is director of the Center for New Structural Economics, Peking University, China. Guanghua Wan is director of the Institute of World Economy, Fudan Univer

The People’s Republic of China needs to refocus its economy to avoid slipping into an economic downturn that could be worse than the one Japan has suffered for more than the past 2 decades. Comparing the experience of the two countries shows that China faces many of the same issues that prompted the beginning of Japan’s long economic slide in the early 1990s. While some differences could help China avoid Japan’s pitfalls, others could make it even worse. Some economic fixes are needed, and quickly. Read the transcripts https://bit.ly/2GhogH0 About the authors Yang Yao is a professor at China’s Peking University. Kyoji Fukao is a professor at Japan’s Hitotsubashi University. Tangjun Yuan is a researcher at China’s Fudan University. Read the book https://www.adb.org/publications/slowdown-prc-structural-factors-and-implications-asia Know more about ADBI’s work on PRC https://bit.ly/2vVC0Yi https://bit.ly/2vQ3fDf

Hundreds of thousands of children in Indonesia are growing taller and heavier thanks to the government’s rice subsidy program, which ensures better nutrition despite flaws in the scheme. The government started RASKIN—rice for the poor—in 1998 to help poor and near-poor families cope with high food prices in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. Under the program, currently the largest in-kind subsidy scheme in Indonesia, eligible households across the country receive subsidized rice. Rice is a staple food, and accounts for nearly a quarter of the average monthly expenditure of poor households in Indonesia. The program is expected to fulfill 39.5% of poor households’ rice needs. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2K2zrq7 Read the report https://www.adb.org/publications/kind-transfer-and-child-development-evidence-indonesia About the authors Bihong Huang is an ADBI research fellow Prachi Gupta was an ADBI research associate when the work was published. Know more about ADBI’s work on Indonesia https

Green bonds, which first appeared in 2007, finance projects that deliver environmental or climate benefits such as climate change mitigation and adaptation investments. The global green bond market is rapidly growing, from $3 billion in 2012 to more than $100 billion in 2017. The Nordic region, particularly Sweden, Norway, and Finland, has pioneered the issuance of green bonds and used specific mechanisms to access debt markets to issue green bonds. These bonds could be used by developing countries in Asia. The increase in recent years of the use of green bonds is a consequence of a wider awareness among investors of sustainability and climate change following the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015 and the United Nations’ adoption of the Sustainable Developments Goals. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2v8q1G8 Read the working paper https://www.adb.org/publications/green-bond-experience-nordic-countries About the author Darius Nassiry is a senior research associate at the Climate and Energy

Negative interest rates in Japan are leading banks, pension funds, and other investors to look overseas for better returns, but they are mostly ignoring developing Asia, and with rates rising in the US and Europe, that is unlikely to change. Alicia Garcia-Herrero, a prominent economist who has worked at the International Monetary Fund and is now chief economist for Asia-Pacific at the French investment bank Natixis, told the annual conference of the Asian Development Bank Institute that investors were being driven from Japanese markets by the low rates used by the Bank of Japan to boost economic activity and end decades of deflation. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2EitXU4 Read the book https://www.adb.org/publications/implications-ultra-low-and-negative-interest-rates-asia Know more about ADBI’s work on interest rates https://bit.ly/2GxboBs https://bit.ly/2uL2KKq

Ultra-low or negative interest rates in Japan, the United States, and Europe placed a difficult burden on other central banks and may threaten their independence in the future. Veerathai Santiprabhob, governor of the Bank of Thailand, told the annual conference of the Asia Development Bank Institute that, with interest rates low, central banks have taken to using macroprudential tools. They are tinkering with regulations to affect the actions of markets, investors and consumers, and adjusting rules to control the flow of capital through their borders. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2I5Z3kb About the speaker Veerathai Santiprabhob is governor of the Bank of Thailand. Watch the whole presentation https://youtu.be/1xE2LEPE8Qw?t=142 Read the book https://www.adb.org/publications/implications-ultra-low-and-negative-interest-rates-asia Know more about ADBI’s work on finance https://bit.ly/2DYo5zi https://bit.ly/2GykwFb

Central banks are running out of wiggle room, having lowered interest rates, in some cases to zero or negative, and are losing influence over markets becoming accustomed to a low-rate regime. “Forward guidance” is losing traction. Narayana Kocherlakota, former president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, says central banks can try to guide public perception by hinting at their intentions, a practice known as forward guidance in banking circles, and he used to think that once interest rates were at the lowest they could go—a position called the lower bound—forward guidance was a good tool to use. But Kocherlakota, now professor of economics at the University of Rochester, told the annual conference of the Asian Development Bank Institute he has changed his mind. Read the transcript https://bit.ly/2pKGfQI About the speaker Narayana Kocherlakota is a now professor of economics at the University of Rochester. Watch the whole presentation https://youtu.be/BKnJS37KbGE?t=2420 Read the book https://www.a

Global governance has undergone significant change since the late 1990s, with the number of global players in health, trade, and development finance rapidly increasing, mobilizing more funds for health and development in developing countries, and spurring global trade. This trend has challenged the three most prominent intergovernmental bodies in these areas—the World Health Organization, the World Trade Organization, and the World Bank. They now need to adapt to a new world order where they play a less central role. After World War II, governments around the world forged international agreements and treaties, forming global bodies to promote international good in almost every social sphere. In 1944, the World Bank’s predecessor, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, was established to help rebuild economies devastated by the war. Three years later, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which over time evolved into the WTO, was formed. The WHO was set up soon after in 1948 a

Big swings in global commodity prices unnerve governments in developing countries reliant on such export revenue, and curb credit growth as banks tighten lending during price volatility. A look at 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries between 2004 and 2015, a period of large swings in commodity prices, found lenders become more cautious when prices fluctuate because clients may not be able to service loans, eroding the quality of bank assets and capital. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality are particularly vulnerable to commodity shocks and tend to be more aggressive in responding to price movements. Similarly, banks that are more sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices, and see a decline in deposit funding and an increase in bad loans in response to a fall in commodity prices, reduce credit supply when asset quality falls. The data shows that a bank with high exposure to commodities and low deposits curbs lending by as much as 4.1 percentage points when commodity price

Water may be saved through trade provided it moves from countries that use water wisely to those lacking water, as a coming water crisis—driven by climate change, neglect of infrastructure, and misguided policies—threatens global economic growth in countries struggling to develop, and in developed countries. Savings don’t refer to the volume of virtual water of the imported product, but to the volume of water the importers would have required to produce the same quantity of product. Globally, savings represent on average 10% of the 352 cubic kilometers of global freshwater used each year. Most virtual water goes into agricultural exports rather than industry, and is heavily subsidized to make them competitive. There is no recognized way to price water, so it reflects demand and supply, and water, both surface and groundwater, is underpriced. The reality is that water resources are becoming more expensive to exploit, and this is not reflected in the price of a final product. Read the transcript http://bit

Laws in developing countries generally reflect their unique cultures, which may restrict innovation and risk-taking, throwing obstacles in the path to development. Strong legal mechanisms, including intellectual property rights and patent protection, allow innovation to thrive. More than elsewhere in Asia, Southeast Asian countries emphasize the economic value of intellectual property rights on patents, but enforcement varies and so does their attraction for investors. Beyond legal mechanisms, innovation centers stimulate growth and innovation. Government-protected technology parks link universities and state companies, and investors know they have a degree of security and won’t have problems down the line. Innovation comes from a meeting of minds, and while there is a risk that specific research may lead nowhere, it’s outweighed by the potential profit from unanticipated spin-off results. The more freedom a country gives its enterprises, the more innovation it could produce. The People’s Republic of

China’s 2009 economic stimulus program after the global financial crisis led to the growth of shadow banking as local governments scrambled to pay off their obligations under the program. Regulators loosened borrowing rules to avoid a debt crunch, posing risks to the financial system, but in doing so accelerated China’s financial liberalization. Asian Development Bank Institute research details the unintended effects of the four-trillion-yuan stimulus plan launched to insulate China’s economic growth from the global financial crisis. Much of the responsibility for funding the stimulus fell on local governments. They mostly took on bank loans to pay for the infrastructure projects that formed the bulk of the stimulus plans. It could take decades for those projects to start paying returns, but the loans came due after about four years on average, leaving local governments searching for ways to service their debts while keeping the stimulus going. Read the transcript: http://bit.ly/2FZnwrr Read the wor