Fivethirtyeight Politics

The contours of the Harris-Trump race are coming further into focus. Vice President Kamala Harris just wrapped up a weeklong tour of the battleground states with her newly minted running mate and former President Donald Trump has been weighing in on all matter of topics on social media and in a lengthy press conference. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about the latest polling of the race, perceptions of the candidates and why some on the right are now taking issue with the polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Vice President Kamala Harris has picked a running mate. On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Will the gun-owning, football-coaching Midwesterner help Democrats’ chances in November? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris secured enough delegate votes in the DNC virtual roll call to become the nominee and the announcement of her running mate is imminent. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at how the contours of the presidential race have changed in the two weeks since Harris became the expected nominee. In our newly relaunched polling averages, Harris has a slim lead nationally and across the northern battleground states. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How much do you respect people who hold different political views from you? On today’s podcast, Galen speaks with Jeff Spinner-Halev and Elizabeth Theiss-Morse, political scientists and authors of the book “Respect and Loathing in American Democracy.” They conducted one of the first empirical studies of respect in American politics, exploring how modern partisans overwhelmingly struggle to respect their political enemies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew drafts potential running mates for expected Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Who will the veep choose for veep? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the span of just two days, Vice President Kamala Harris consolidated support within the Democratic Party and is well on her way to securing the Democratic nomination for president. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Mary Radcliffe and Geoffrey Skelley about what has and hasn’t changed in the newly reshaped 2024 presidential race. Harris won’t have the same challenges President Joe Biden faced when it came to perceptions of his age, and already it appears some young voters and voters of color have swung in her direction. But, similar to Biden, voters largely view Harris as more liberal than they’d like on policy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this weekend installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 race. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the final night of the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump accepted the Republican nomination and spoke publicly for the first time since his attempted assassination. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik join Galen to help make sense of the third night of the Republican National Convention. Plus: How should we interpret polls that show a majority of Democrats want President Joe Biden to step aside? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the first two days of the Republican National Convention. They also discuss the latest developments in President Joe Biden’s efforts to stay atop the Democratic ticket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this bonus installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses former president Donald Trump’s choice of running mate: Ohio senator J.D. Vance. The “Hillbilly Elegy” author is unique among past running mates for his lack of political experience — and for his beard. What kind of running mate might he be? And will it matter? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump. They discuss the impact on the country and community and also look at public opinion data on political violence. They also look at historical examples of such violence and track how lawmakers are reacting today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The purgatory continues. The number of lawmakers saying President Joe Biden should not run for reelection continues to tick up, while Biden’s answer — that he is staying in the race — remains the same. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at data on which lawmakers are calling on Biden to step aside and who is continuing to support him. The RNC also released its proposed platform this week and we use a good or bad use of polling example to better understand whether former President Donald Trump’s (and Biden's) policies are popular. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the Senate returns to Washington for the first time since President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the president appears to be digging in his heels. In a letter to Democratic lawmakers sent Monday morning, Biden was adamant that he is staying in the presidential race. But it does not seem like the interested parties are taking Biden’s insistence as the final word on the issue. With just six weeks until the Democratic National Convention, how does this all end? And following landmark elections in Britain and France, we travel across the pond for an international edition of “good or bad use of polling.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Joe Biden, in an exclusive interview with ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos that aired Friday night, acknowledged last week's debate was a "bad episode" but pushed back strongly against broader questions about his age and mental fitness. Biden's sit-down with ABC News was his first television interview since the June 27 debate. Hear the interview now, in its entirety, on ABC News' "Start Here" podcast: Apple Podcasts (http://bit.ly/3VmuAnm), Spotify (http://bit.ly/3j947fm), Amazon Music (http://bit.ly/3FGMkDT), or wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Happy Fourth of July! To celebrate our independence from Great Britain, the 538 Politics podcast is actually turning its attention to the United Kingdom's upcoming election. The U.K. is holding its first national election in four and a half years on July 4 and the polling suggests the Labour Party will make historic gains, booting Conservatives from power for the first time in 14 years. To get a sense of the forces behind the dramatic shift since 2019, two longtime friends of the podcast weigh in. Helen Thompson is a professor of political economy at Cambridge University and host of the "These Times" podcast. David Runciman is a professor of politics at Cambridge and host of the podcast "Past Present Future." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The ground has started to shift beneath President Joe Biden's feet. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple Democratic lawmakers raised questions about his viability as a candidate in 2024 and weighed in on who might replace him should he step aside. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley about the latest data on how voters are reacting to Biden's debate performance and what could happen next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Since Thursday, the only story in American politics has been President Joe Biden's poor debate performance and what on earth Democrats are going to do about it. That was until today, when the Supreme Court ruled that American presidents have legal immunity for official acts. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, about the details of the Supreme Court's ruling. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich and Tia Yang discuss the continued fallout from the presidential debate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Galen reacts to the first 2024 presidential debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This Thursday, President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the earliest presidential debate ever. It is also the first contest between a president and former president in over a century and the first debate not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable uses of polling and preview a couple of high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices