Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Trevor Mottl, managing director at Lazard Labs, speaks to Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal about how machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) can inform and transform the investment process – from idea generation to position sizing to risk management. He tells Raoul about the AI team he runs at Lazard Asset Management that uses machine learning to identify patterns in markets too complex for the human brain to recognize in order to reliably generate alpha too obscure for human investors to reliably capture. Mottl also breaks down his three-piece framework of finance – which includes pricing, time horizon, and liquidity – and explains how this framework has shaped his investment philosophy and informed his macro outlook. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

James Aitken, partner at Aitken Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the intricate relationship between bond and FX markets and how this often overlooked connection is playing out at this critical juncture of the credit cycle. Aitken and Pal put the recently announced central bank policies – remarkably generous swap lines, sweeping repo facilities, and the revival of quantitative easing (QE) – in proper context and analyzes how central banks' commitment to be the "buyers of first resort" will affect cross-currency basis swaps, yields on corporates, and the U.S. dollar. Aitken also describes his investing framework to deploying capital in this unprecedented economic crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison discuss today’s undulating recovery as global equities tried to regain ground lost in yesterday’s market rout. Raoul and Ed explore why today’s snapback wasn’t as strong as expected and Raoul places this discussion within the context of his “unfolding” thesis. In the intro Jack Farley discusses the VIX and a daring attempt by Hertz bondholders to take advantage of the moment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Managing editor Ed Harrison joins Lloyd Khaner, general partner and CIO at Khaner Capital Management, to discuss his macro outlook for the next year and beyond. Khaner explains some of the growth opportunities he sees in equity markets and breaks down how he determines value in a volatile market saturated with liquidity. In the intro, Peter Cooper gives an update on how the global reopening has affected the spread of coronavirus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Jay Pelosky, CIO and co-founder of TPW Investment Management, to unpack his contrarian and bullish thesis on the economy and markets. Pelosky argues that the big plays for 2020 is not in tech, but in commodities, as well as in value stocks and cyclicals. He explains that the overwhelmingly strong stimulus, both in the forms of monetary and fiscal policies, have undergirded demand in a way that will allow it to spring back later in the year. Pelosky also discusses why this is the decade of Europe and ESG, the growing appreciation for EM currencies, and the potential headwinds that might dampen the current broad appetite for equities. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews the Fed’s latest press release and delves into some of their rate forecasts and economic projections. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

 Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss market sentiment in light of NBER's recent announcement that the U.S. slid into recession in February. Bennington and Harrison explore whether market participants are betting that liquidity will mitigate the credit cycle's severity and whether this could be a miscalculation that catches investors off guard, leading to a “double-dip” recession. They also draw comparisons between today’s markets to that of the dot-com era, highlight the shift toward momentum trading, and share their thoughts on how durable damage to demand can bring an unnaturally elevated market crashing down later in the year. In the intro, Peter Cooper explains the surge in new online brokerage accounts and explores particular instances of excess speculation by retail investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison map out their framework for the rest of 2020. Ed and Ash look at the steepening yield curve and the continued ascent of U.S. equities. Ed gives additional color to his macro thesis and reflects on his bullish call in April on Europe’s re-opening. Ed and Ash also look forward to the upcoming interviews with Michael Howell and Darius Dale. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at the rising tensions between Germany and the ECB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ric Edelman, chairman and co-founder of Edelman LLC, speaks to Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington about how investors can position themselves for success during this unprecedented crisis. Edelman analyzes the ongoing calamity through the lens of behavioral finance, and gives recommendations for how investors should be thinking about their savings and investments. He recommends that investors take the long-term, thoughtful approach and not worry about short-term price gyrations - but he does prescribe caution for investors who are averse to wild swings. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

 Daniel Zwirn, CEO of Arena Investors, kicks off Debt Week by bringing his unique credit framework to Real Vision. Zwirn argues that a decade of cheap money has worsened credit quality, but that nevertheless there are lucrative fixed-income opportunities on the long- as well as short-side. He warns of the risks he sees in leveraged loans (as well as the CLOs that package them), noting the "asset-liability mismatch" as one of his most severe concerns. Other topics include: regulatory change, interest rate risk, and idiosyncratic plays in energy and real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss a roaring day on Wall Street as the U.S. labor market breathed a sigh of relief. Looking at everything from tech valuations to the AUD/USD trade, Raoul and Ash dive deeper into this jam-packed news day to see whether the economy really is on the mend. In the intro, Jack Farley touches on these themes and previews Raoul’s interview with Gerard Minack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst talk about the trajectory of the global recovery and growth—specifically, they explore the exponential increase in the savings rate, the vicious cycle the Fed might find itself in as they continue to support asset prices, and the potential for "zombification"of corporations through misallocated capital. They also dive into how sentiment is currently driving financial markets, why passive investors may not be prepared for the air pockets of potential drawdowns, and how easy monetary policy actually encourages growth deflation. In the intro, Nick Correa analyzes today’s ECB announcement to expand its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

 Senior Editor Ash Bennington joins Managing Editor Roger Hirst to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst discuss what “returning to normal” means for markets—whether it’s breaking into a new regime or a return to the status quo. They also dive into “the dollar smile,” where bond yields are headed, and commercial real estate in the UK. In the intro segment, Real Vision’s Nick Correa talks about the 1968 influenza pandemic and how the world’s response to pandemics in the past was vastly different from the response today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to delve into whether the pandemonium in the U.S. will ever spread into capital markets. They analyze the historical performance of markets during times of civil unrest and explore whether U.S. equities have "priced in" the possibility that the ongoing mass protests in the U.S. could accelerate the spread of COVID-19. Ed and Ash also discuss the yield curve and retracement levels for the S&P. In the intro, Real Vision's Nick Correa talks about the 1957 pandemic, the Eisenhower recession, and how they may intersect. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the roiling civil unrest in the U.S. could affect businesses and financial markets. They look at the correlation of the Citi Surprise index and bond yields, and Ed introduces three historical parallels to compare to the current moment. Ed and Ash reaffirm that Real Vision’s core remit is to analyze markets. In the intro, Jack Farley gives an overview of global PMI data and Goldman Sachs’ revised forecast for the S&P 500. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy and Research, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its long-term consequences on monetary policy, investing, and geopolitics. Pal and Sokoloff analyze how a protracted quarantine might slow economic activity to such a degree that central banks become more active than they ever have before, either by monetizing debt or by purchasing risk assets outright. The pair also explore how the crisis might affect the 2020 election, the practice of stock buybacks, and specific assets like oil, gold, and the Japanese Yen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Recently the Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented steps to backstop the market, sending investors scrambling to relearn the “rules of the game,” and inciting arguably justifiable outrage from others. Matt Rowe, CIO of Headwaters Volatility, and Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, debate the utility of this outrage and explore whether the level of shock is justified considering the long history of the “rules changing”. Additionally, they examine the misaligned incentives for investors and governments, try to make sense of the recent rally in equities and the bifurcation of the high-yield market, and look forward at the potential for big surprises like bailouts or the Fed stepping into the equity market.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets and macro in the era of coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison talk through the risks and potential upside to growth as European institutions debate bailouts in Europe, the possible ripple effect of President Trump’s call to revoke Hong Kong’s special trade status, and the plausibility of the renminbi becoming a global reserve currency. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses some of the latest economic data coming out of Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. They talk through why US equities are still not suffering even though the real economic data demonstrates an increasingly bleaker picture. In light of that, Harrison and Hirst break down what lessons to draw from this investing environment. In the intro, Real Vision’s Jack Farley looks at the continued layoffs in the airline and tech industries. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss the latest developments in macro, markets, and coronavirus. Bennington and Hirst analyze what’s happening in Europe, including the recently proposed EU stimulus package, ballooning European debt, and the underlying structure of the eurozone. They also discuss recent moves in equity prices and the current landscape of currency markets. In the intro, Real Vision’s Nick Correa shares the details of both the EU’s and Japan’s proposed stimulus bills for economic relief. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington break down the brewing tensions between China and the United States. They comprehend the consequences of a potential "decoupling" between the two superpowers and analyze the possibility of a new Cold War. Ed and Ash also analyze the continued rise of U.S. equities and look forward to see whether the ongoing crisis will be the shortest recession in history or if there is some "post-snapback malaise" in store. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at what could be the first convertible bond default in the history of Chinese markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices