Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, kicks off an exciting two weeks of content on Real Vision by explaining why we are endeavoring to answer the ultimate question, "has everything changed?" As well, Pal switches hats into his role as head of GMI to update viewers on his "unfolding" thesis and his own view on the question, "has everything changed?" He argues that the insolvency phase is being signaled by banks, BBB equities, and bond yields while tech stocks are stubbornly stuck in the hope phase, which has morphed into a dangerous speculation phase. He also runs through his outlook for the roster of major global asset classes and explains why he thinks Bitcoin is "the world’s best trade." Filmed on September 17, 2020 and Aired on September 21 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to look back at market action and make sense of several secular trends. Raoul shares several of the lessons from his interview with “The Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach, which leads into a discussion about changes to risk appetite and time horizon within the hedge fund industry. Raoul and Ash then discuss the latest banning of crypto derivatives for amateur investors. They close by discussing wage deflation and software’s ever-tightening grip on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst break down some of the most significant price action they're seeing in markets. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin explains the back-and-forth on fiscal stimulus negotiations and why the Fed could issue a monetary policy offset to try and sustain economic momentum. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down the vanishing fiscal stimulus and the K-shaped economic recovery. Ed interprets the latest economic data to give Jack his market outlook over the next six months. Ed then looks at how the impasse in the fiscal stimulus may widen the chasm between large corporations and small businesses. He and Jack then turn their gaze to the credit markets where the bifurcation between the haves and the have-nots is becoming even more apparent. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper takes a look at how President Trump has pulled the plug on fiscal stimulus negotiations, what he's targeting now, and how markets have been taking in the news. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to examine the latest wild market swings. Despite a large selling episode on Friday with the announcement of President Trump being diagnosed with COVID-19, Tony discusses how the rally still has momentum as the macro indicators are still driving markets upward. Ash then asks how Tony is currently hedging the news of the president's health, and they talk about how FAANG is now getting pummeled even though the rally is still holding. They review historical examples of key anti-trust cases and share their thoughts on why breaking up big tech may catch retail investors flat-footed. They wrap up their conversation with Tony sharing some trading lessons he's learned from his experience and what he's looking out for next. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin explains why stocks took a dive Tuesday afternoon after President Trump said he ordered an end to stimulus negotiations until after the November election. Learn more about your ad ch

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison break down another day of risk-on sentiment as the market evaluates the state of President Trump’s health and the chances of another round of fiscal stimulus. Ed explores whether the term “depression” is appropriate, through the lens of his interview today with David Rosenberg. Ed and Ash then look at how duration risk and political gridlock might impact markets going forward. Lastly, Ash discusses his interview on Friday with Brian Estes, and looks forward to Live Q&A's with Lyn Alden, George Goncalves, and Ted Seides on “The Exchange”: https://exchange.realvision.com/. In the intro, editor Jack Farley takes a look at movie theater chain Cineworld's decision to shutter hundreds of theaters in the U.S. and U.K. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Marc Cohodes is well known as a confident and vocal short-seller willing to fight harder and dig deeper into a company than anyone else in the business. But when he sees the buying opportunity of a lifetime, he's just as willing to get to work on the long side and spread the good news. In this interview with Raoul Pal, Cohodes explains why the combination of a booming e-commerce business, the massive call option of tokenization, and the tZERO blockchain network have him extremely bullish on Overstock even after riding the stock from $3 to $90 in its most recent run. As well, they discuss Marc's other "all in" call on Camping World, a company that, much like Overstock, has him licking his chops and continuing to buy alongside insiders who have not stepped out of the market in spite of the general frothiness that abounds. Cohodes also updates viewers on the personal and emotional rollercoaster that has been his MiMedx short. Air Date: 4 Sep 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of Appletree Capital, is joined by John Floyd, head of macro strategies at Record Currency Management, to analyze the mounting pressures on the Turkish Lira as well as other emerging market (EM) currencies. Floyd breaks down his bearish thesis on the Turkish Lira (TRY), citing Turkey's deeply negative real rates, dwindling FX reserves, and a banking sector deeply indebted to foreign creditors on a dollar- or euro-denominated basis. Floyd and Nicoletos then discuss the knock-on effects of a Turkish Lira collapse as so many European banks (especially Spanish ones) are heavily exposed to Turkey. Lastly, Floyd shares with Nicoletos the various trades to express this view. Aired on September 11, 2020 on realvision.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, joins senior editor, Ash Bennington, to interpret the latest financial newsflow. Raoul explores the possibility of a top forming in U.S. equities through the lens of his “GMI crash pattern.” He and Ash then analyze President Trump’s diagnosis of COVID-19 and investigate its potential market impact. Raoul then talks about today’s interview with hedge fund legend Dmitry Balyasny as well as next week’s interview with bond kingpin Jeffrey Gundlach. Raoul and Ash briefly discuss the criminal charges brought against BitMEX, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. Lastly, Raoul shares his view on the enfeebled energy sector. In the intro, Real Vision’s Jack Farley breaks down the price action following the COVID-19 outbreak in the White House. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to break down today’s price action. Using Julian Brigden’s Expert View from September 28th as a springboard, Roger discusses the pressures that central banks are under to create reflation in an environment of low productivity, low growth, and a weaker dollar when they have instead contributed to asset price inflation. Roger and Ed also analyze the rebound in equities by considering how US equities are carrying out a bullish narrative of recovery as compared to poorer equity performance outside of the US. Wrapping up their conversation, Roger also offers his thoughts on the NASDAQ futures short position as well as how pensions are being threatened now. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin takes a look at the rise in SPACs as first blank-check ETF makes its trading debut today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison hosts Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report. Boockvar shares his macro analysis on what he calls “the pain trade": companies that have been the most hurt by COVID-19 and have the most to gain from re-opening. Boockvar and Harrison review the latest economic data and discuss what is and what is not priced into the markets. Boockvar also discusses banks as the ultimate value trap and why they may be poised for an ultimate turnaround should the long-end of the yield curve tighten. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin breaks down two major technology companies, Palantir and Asana, and their direct listings on the NYSE today and how this could reshape the IPO market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to break down recent price action in markets. Tony provides his latest thoughts about what’s happening in the energy sector and where oil is headed as we begin to close out 2020, reviews his stance on the tech rally and its sub-sectors, and offers his perspective on the financials sector. Ash and Tony also discuss market sentiment with the U.S. presidential election fanning the flames of anxiety and the risk of COVID-19 still looming. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin looks ahead at what investors will be watching for in the first US presidential debate and its impact on continued market volatility. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to make sense of the biggest 3-day breakout in equities since April. Through the lens of Ed’s most recent piece in "Credit Writedowns." Ed and Ash explain why low interest rates tend to make growth stocks more valuable relative to value stocks, and why the recent rally in small-cap value stocks might be short-lived. Ed looks forward to his interview with hedge fund legend Leon Cooperman, which airs tomorrow, on Tuesday, September 29. The pair also discuss discount rates, portfolio rebalancing, and endogenous credit creation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, is joined by Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial to discuss the most pressing issues on the macro horizon. After exploring whether quantitative easing (QE) and low rates are inflationary or deflationary, Johnson and Van Metre take a deep dive into the plumbing of the Treasury market and specifically the operations of the Fed's FOMC. Van Metre explains why he believes the Fed's policies have actually caused banks to tighten their lending standards rather than loosen them as the Fed intended. The pair then take a look at swap lines and the Eurodollar funding market as well as the effect a credit contraction would have on the U.S. dollar. Lastly, Van Metre talks about his Real Vision journey and how the knowledge he’s gained has helped him as an investor as well as a financial advisor.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What happens when the monetary and fiscal engines run too hot? This is the question that Larry McDonald, New York Times bestselling author and founder of the Bear Traps Report, explores with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal. McDonald and Pal start by analyzing the valuations of high-flying tech stocks and discuss whether they will continue to soar or make an early landing. The pair then examine in detail the remarkable price action seen over the past few months in commodities such as precious metals, lumber, and natural gas. McDonald compiles this appreciation as evidence to explore his thesis that excessive stimulus could serve as a "cobra effect" to augur a hyperinflationary economic collapse.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, come together to analyze the price action in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Ed looks forward to his interview with Leon Cooperman, and Ash interprets the latest economic data, including today’s dismal print for durable goods orders. They then consider the latest political news and discuss how the upcoming presidential election will impact markets. In the intro, Ash speaks to Real Vision editor, Jack Farley, about stocks, credit spreads, and a steepening VIX curve. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, hosts managing editor, Roger Hirst, to break down wild market swings that have characterized the last week of price action. Roger explores key retracement levels in the IBEX and FTSE 100 as well as the recent weakness in bank stocks, using his analysis from his latest episode of “The Big Conversation.” Ed then discusses the momentum shift over the past two weeks from growth to value through the lens of his interview with Ben Inker, heir apparent to Jeremy Grantham at GMO. The pair then look at the head-and-shoulders pattern in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and explore whether currencies could be a release valve for volatility adjustment. In the intro, Ed speaks to Real Vision reporter, Haley Draznin, about the steady rise in jobless claims released today, which signal continuing layoffs as the economy recovers slowly from the coronavirus pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, to review and analyze today’s price action. Ed and Dave first discuss the continuing sell-off in equities and examine Dave’s bearish position on the S&Ps. They also consider the dollar’s move upward, what opportunities may exist for the yen as a result, and how low volatility in bonds is prompting higher volatility in the FX space. Finally, Dave shares his thoughts on the sell-off in silver, explains what technicals he uses to manage the trade, and at what levels he’ll retest his bullish thesis on precious metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes back Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to discuss the ongoing inflation trade. Tony expounds on his bullish posture toward oil and some of the technical indicators he uses to analyze different securities. He also reviews some of the current policy stances that emerged from last week’s FOMC meeting, explaining how he leverages these policy shifts to seek out price inflation across different asset classes. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin monitors the continued volatility in the markets and addresses the potential risks investors are paying close attention to in the coming weeks including another stimulus relief bill out of Congress, a new spending bill, and surging coronavirus cases in the U.S. and abroad. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, discuss a volatile day in markets. Ed and Ash analyze today’s sell-off in stocks, gold, and silver as well as a significant rally in bonds. They then consider the resignation of Nikola founder, Trevor Milton, the rumors of European bank consolidation, and the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg. Ed looks forward to his interviews with Jim Berry, Deloitte’s U.S. real estate leader, and Ben Inker, head of asset allocation at GMO. Lastly, Ash speaks to Real Vision editorial intern Bryce Zuccoli, who was recently diagnosed with COVID-19. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices