Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

In another sign energy is now a second front in the Eastern European war, President Vladimir Putin has said he wants “unfriendly countries” to pay for Russian oil and gas in rubles. Putin’s move follows reports that European Union nations are considering joining the U.S. boycott of Russian oil and in the aftermath of a weekend attack on Saudi production facilities. Brent crude, the European benchmark, has surged again, rising nearly 5% Wednesday to $121. Energy costs will surely have the attention of an inflation-obsessed Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meester said she supports front-loading rate hikes, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she sees room for a 50-basis-point hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in May. That’s despite the fact that market rates are already negatively impacting the housing market, with new home sales down for a second straight month in February and mortgage refinance applications down 14% week over week. Darius Dale, founder and CE

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday, “Inflation is much too high,” noting that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates until inflation is under control. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his view that U.S. monetary policy must be tightened quickly to put a stop to upward pressure on inflation that’s already too high, repeating his call for a fed funds target rate above 3.0% this year. Meanwhile, a selloff in government bonds intensified on concerns that rising inflation will drag the nation’s economy into recession. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit its highest level since 2019, as the Treasury market nears the end of what could be its worst quarter since 1973. Altogether, it looks like the hiking cycle could be more aggressive than previously forecast. But what if we have inflation all wrong? Could it be, suggests Vincent Deluard, director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, that in a service-oriented economy “inflation” is just another word for “g

We’re nearly one month into Russia’s war against Ukraine. Officials from Moscow and Kyiv have met intermittently for peace talks that have so far failed to bring a cessation of hostilities. Geopolitical tensions are once again showing up in energy markets. Several European Union member states are pushing for a fifth round of sanctions on Russia. Cutting off Russian crude would theoretically take 4% to 5% of global supply off the market. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, under increasing pressure to ramp up its output, is calling on Western allies to do more to help counter attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis on critical oil infrastructure. Investors are also weighing a rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe stemming from an emerging variant. Izabella Kaminska, former editor of The Financial Times’ FT Alphaville blog and founder of The Blind Spot, joins Emil Kalinowski to discuss the latest geopolitical and financial headlines, with a focus on media and propaganda surrounding the war in Eastern Europe. Want to submit quest

Brian Estes’ unwavering passion for Bitcoin is fueled by a much deeper motive that will change the way you think about the entire crypto space. In this discussion with fellow Bitcoin advocate Mark Yusko, Estes shines a light on why the cryptocurrency isn’t even close to realizing its full potential and outlines the four valuation methods he’s used to determine an estimation for Bitcoin’s value in 2029. The venture capitalist who invests heavily into companies offering blockchain solutions says we’re currently witnessing an era in which we’re “rebuilding what wasn’t built correctly the first time.” Our first visionary on the show shares his inspirational backstory and brings a fascinating understanding of Bitcoin to the table in what is quite simply the perfect start to this exciting series on the future of digital assets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kyla Scanlon is a US-based independent content creator and curator with an expanding social media profile built on both short- and long-form TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube videos as well as extensive written work on her newsletter, her Substack, and her blog. Known for her ability to distill market moves and current events in an analytical but humorous way, she both informs and entertains her audience. Himself a content creator and curator, Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura talks to Kyla about the creative process, the challenges they face, and their respective visions for the future of financial education. In a conversation as sprawling as it is compelling, Weston and Kyla, who share mutual interest in empowering an ever-growing global audience of self-directed market participants, also discuss current events, “meme commodities,” central banks, and crypto. Thanks for watching! Subscribe to our channel now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/subscribe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.f

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullard was the only member of the Federal Open Market Committee to dissent from the decision to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. Bullard wanted 50 basis points, and he’d like to see a fed funds rate of 3% by the end of 2022, not the 1.75% of the central bank’s current forecast. Bullard and Fed Chair Jerome Powell do agree that the economy can handle monetary tightening. And the stock market, with the S&P 500 on the way to its best week since November 2020, seems to accept the Fed’s outlook on growth. But the bond market sees something different – that is, a slowdown. The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten, and the 10-year yield fell below the five-year rate for the first time since March 2020. Meanwhile, war in Eastern Europe continues to sow dysfunction, most obviously in commodity markets. Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the Fed, inflation and growth, China and the Russia-Ukraine con

The Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is underway, with yesterday’s 25-basis-point increase to the fed funds target range the first of what’s now forecast to be a total of seven such moves in 2022. Chair Jerome Powell said during his post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting press conference that the Fed could finalize “quantitative tightening” plans as soon as the FOMC’s May meeting. The Fed expects inflation to come in at 4.3% in 2022 before it falls to 2.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. Policymakers adjusted downward their 2022 growth forecast, from 4.0% to 2.8%. U.S. equity indexes have responded positively to the Fed’s new hawkish stance. Market yields continue to climb, most notably the average 30-year mortgage rate. Volatility continues to be the primary characteristic of financial markets. Chinese stocks continued to rally on accommodative moves announced by government officials, but the nickel market remains an unsettled mess. The “Fed Guy,” Joseph Wang, a former trader on the central b

 Real Vision's latest Twitter Space was a smashing success. Real Vision's Raoul Pal, Elaine Ly, Weston Nakamura, and thousands of RV listeners including Bill Tai and more joined to voice their thoughts on everything happening across the globe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made it official this afternoon, raising the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 0.25% to 0.50%. The FOMC also boosted the interest on reserves rate and the reverse repo rate. In its statement announcing the decision, the FOMC noted with regard to the Russia-Ukraine war that “in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.” The Fed forecast year-end inflation of 4.3%, with a total of seven rate hikes through year's end. U.S equity indexes were mixed in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC announcement, as bond yields surged. Chinese stocks notched their biggest rally in 14 years, as President Xi Jinping’s government offered wide-ranging support for capital markets. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss the FOMC’s decision, the complex set of circumstances central bankers face, and China’s accommodative moves. Want to su

It’s safe to say the macro environment is unsettled right now, to an extent not seen in decades, and financial markets are correspondingly volatile. Crude oil prices are now down nearly 30% from recent highs, as investors weigh the demand impact of new COVID-19 lockdowns in China against supply constraints owing to the Russia-Ukraine war. Wheat has also backed off but is still up nearly 40% since Russia invaded Ukraine. The Labor Department reported this morning that the Producer Price Index for February was up 10% year over year and 0.8% month over month, as recent spikes for energy and food inputs promise a “faster for longer” rate of rise. Still, the major U.S. equity indexes were all trading more than 1% higher through midday. This is all prelude to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee. Inflation is the main enemy for the Federal Reserve. But global stress – heightened by reported talks between Saudi Arabia and China about the former accepting the yuan in payment f

Sellers took control of the major U.S. equity indexes after lunchtime Monday and bond yields continued to climb, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s first move to boost its federal funds rate target later this week. Crude oil has sold off by nearly 25% from near-term highs, though inflationary pressures remain the central bank’s primary concern, even as the war in Eastern Europe shows no signs of ending anytime soon. The Fed must be mindful, however, that the economy was already slowing before Russia invaded Ukraine, notes Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis. And Josh Lipsky, director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics center, points out that Russia’s economic contraction in a matter of weeks is comparable to the Great Depression, which took place over a number of years. China is another wild card, as its tech sector continues to sell off and officials are announcing new COVID-19 lockdowns. The Middle Kingdom’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war is also generating heated speculation. Lacalle and L

In this special update, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal shares with us how he’s approaching the market amid this incredibly chaotic environment. Raoul outlines several scenarios for how the Russia-Ukraine situation could play out and breaks down what war in Easern Europe means for gold, bonds, oil, and, yes, even crypto. Raoul also explains why he thinks the U.S. dollar is now more of a liability than an asset and forecasts the Federal Reserve’s next moves. This is another can’t-miss presentation that will help you understand how Raoul is thinking as he navigates these turbulent times. Recorded on March 6, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Volatility matters — especially to Jason Buck, who runs his own volatility fund with the primary objective of building diverse portfolios that are capable of thriving in any financial forecast. Join Buck as he speaks with Anthony Scaramucci, Alex Lennard, Cem Karsan, Noel Smith and Scott Army about harnessing volatility for desired outcomes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Making a long-awaited return to the Daily Briefing, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, economy, and, of course, the war in Eastern Europe. Governments around the world continue to react to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the U.S. including $13.6 billion in aid to the latter as part of a $1.5 trillion spending bill and President Joe Biden suggesting an end to the latter’s “most favored nation” trade status. In another indication of an emerging deglobalization trend, Chinese tech stocks suffered their worst decline since October 2008 on increased regulatory scrutiny and fears of delisting from American exchanges. Raoul and Ash discuss the U.S. dollar, global trade, and the rising profile of cryptocurrency amid what remains the most interesting times most of us have yet experienced. Get your questions ready for Raoul, and drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3pYiJyO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. Department of Labor reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index increased 7.9% during the 12 months through February, another fresh 40-year high. And that measure doesn’t account for the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy and food commodities. Crude oil prices have backed off 13-year highs on news the United Arab Emirates would support production increases by fellow OPEC members. And wheat futures have also retreated from 14-year highs. The European Central Bank acknowledged the threat of inflation to economic growth by announcing an earlier-than-expected withdrawal of monetary stimulus. Equity markets remain volatile, which can be helpful for options specialists like today’s Daily Briefing guest Imran Lakha. Lakha, the founder of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to talk about inflation, how central banks plan to address it, and the role cryptocurrency and gold can play in mitigating its effects on investors’ portfolios. Want to submit questions? Drop them righ

Global equity markets surged Wednesday on reports Ukraine is open to negotiating a compromise with Russia. Kyiv made clear it would discuss neutrality with Moscow but that it would not give up territory. Prices for commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, and wheat retreated. Gold, a favorite of today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing guest Jared Dillian, also backed off recent highs. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is establishing a cryptocurrency policy, with the president issuing an executive order directing federal agencies to work together around six key areas: consumer and investor protection; financial stability; illicit activity; U.S. competitiveness on a global stage; financial inclusion; and responsible innovation. The Department of Labor reported there were 5 million more job openings than available workers in January, another sign of a historically tight employment situation in the U.S. Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about Eastern Europe, gold

U.S. equity indexes rallied early Tuesday, even as spiraling commodity prices promise even more upward pressure on inflation. Highlighting the day’s events was nickel soaring past the $100,000-per-metric-ton mark, which led the London Metal Exchange to suspend trading in the key input for stainless steel. Soon after President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. would ban imports of Russian oil, natural gas, and coal effective immediately, the U.K. government said it would phase out Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022. Shell declared it would stop all purchases of Russian crude and shutter its service stations in Russia, while Germany’s Uniper, a major buyer of Russian gas, said it won’t sign any new contracts for long-term supply. West Texas Intermediate crude traded as high as $128 per barrel, Brent hit $132, and European natural gas prices remained near record highs. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the

Re-pricing in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains the dominant theme across global financial markets, with energy and food supplies top-of-mind for investors and policymakers alike. West Texas Intermediate crude reached levels last seen in 2008 on reports the U.S. federal government is actively considering a ban on Russian oil imports. Wheat is also trading at decade-and-a-half highs. And European natural gas has surged 79% since the onset of war. Squeezing Vladimir Putin seems the international community’s primary strategy right now. According to Bill Browder, a longtime nemesis of the Russian president, “The only way we can stop Putin is to starve him of resources.” Browder, co-founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management and the leader of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to assess the impact of coordinated international sanctions on Putin’s government, the oligarchs who support

Host- Weston Nakamura Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ever wanted to know more about Raoul’s story? Interested in how he approaches not only his investments but life generally? Curious about what made it possible for him to retire for the first time at 36? In this special crossover episode, Raoul finds himself in the guest seat as My First Million host Shaan Puri probes Raoul’s background, his life philosophy, and the facts behind his first million. Shaan and Raoul also explore Raoul's Bitcoin-versus-ethereum "bet" as well how NFTs are commodifying culture for the first time in history. For more information on My First Million, please visit: https://www.mfmpod.com. Recorded on February 24, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices