The Lowy Institute

As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton led one of the Obama Administration’s signature foreign policy initiatives, the ‘pivot’ to Asia. On 13 June, the Lowy Institute heard an address from Hillary Clinton’s closest foreign policy confidant, Jake Sullivan, about what motivated the pivot and what US Asia policy will look like under President Trump and beyond. A rising China, a belligerent North Korea and an unruly ASEAN are among the many challenges facing the US in the Asia-Pacific. Can this still be ‘America’s Pacific Century’, as Clinton promised when she first described the pivot in 2011?The annual Owen Harries Lecture honours the enormous contribution Mr Harries, a Nonresident Fellow of the Lowy Institute, has made to the international policy debate in Australia.Jake Sullivan was senior foreign policy adviser to Hillary Clinton's 2016 election campaign, having ‘quietly catapulted through the ranks of the Democratic foreign policy establishment’, as Vox magazine put it. Sullivan had earlier served as senior

British Prime Minister Theresa May has called a snap election – the first early election in the UK since 1974. Opinion polls indicate her Conservative government is in for a thumping victory, but in an era of voter volatility, is this an unnecessary gamble? Or will May get the mandate she wants to negotiate the UK’s exit from the European Union on the best terms? On 9 June, the day after UK polling day, Georgina Downer and Thomas Bentley discussed what the results mean for the UK, EU and the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mr Hyland is the United Kingdom’s first Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner. The Commissioner’s role is to lead the UK’s efforts to tackle modern slavery and human trafficking. Mr Hyland addressed the Lowy Institute on what is one of the most significant global human rights issues of the modern day, and the domestic and international actions countries can take to tackle it. Kevin Hyland was head of the London Metropolitan Police’s Human Trafficking Unit, and has over 30 years’ experience of investigating serious and organised crime. Mr Hyland was appointed as an Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) for "services to Combating Human Trafficking" in the 2015 New Year Honours. While in Australia, Mr Hyland participated in a public hearing at the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade parliamentary inquiry into establishing a Modern Slavery Act in Australia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

North Korea is moving closer to its cherished strategic goal: the possession of a functioning nuclear missile capable of hitting the United States. The regime’s nuclear and ballistic missile tests have gathered pace, creating a momentum which US and regional policy makers are struggling to control. Sanctions have failed to halt the development of the North’s nuclear program. The recent, brazen assassination of Kim Jong Un’s half-brother by an outlawed chemical weapon in Malaysia’s main airport is also widely believed to have been carried out at Pyongyang’s direction, although no North Korean suspects have been brought to justice. While South Korea has lived with North Korea’s provocative behaviour for decades, how will other neighbours and the Trump administration deal with the looming threat? Is there a US-China “grand bargain” on the cards? Will the United States pursue unilateral counter-measures? Or does the solution lie elsewhere – with the possibility that a new South Korean president will pursue a pro-

Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Stephen Grenville speaks with Sebastian Mallaby, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, about how US President Donald Trump might interact with the US Federal Reserve, what lessons the Reserve Bank of Australia might draw from the US, and the impact of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China is a rapidly ageing country. According to the World Bank, the working age population is predicted to fall by 10% by 2040. While the size of the workforce is falling, the pool of over 65s are rising, predicted to reach 350 million by the same year.What are the economic effects of a shrinking labour pool and rising number of aged dependents, and how will the two-child policy limit these effects? On 22 May the Lowy Institute hosted a panel of Dr Merriden Varrall, Director of the East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, Dr Jane Golley, Associate Director of the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University and Dr John Edwards, Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute, to explore how population dynamics will shape China’s economy and what it means for our economic future at large.The Lowy Institute acknowledges the support of AMP for this event.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the race for Iran’s presidency heating up as hardline candidates join the contest, on 10 May the Lowy Institute hosted a panel moderated by Deputy Director Anthony Bubalo to preview Iran’s crucial presidential elections on 19 May. Joining Anthony were Dr Rodger Shanahan, Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute; Dr Naser Ghobadzadeh, from the Australian Catholic University; and Alice Drury, who lived and studied in Iran between 2014 and 2016.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Allan Gyngell's new book 'Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World since 1942' is an authoritative account of the way Australians and their governments have helped create the world we now inhabit. On 26 April the Lowy Institute hosted Allan Gyngell, former Executive Director of the Lowy Institute and former Prime Minister Paul Keating for a discussion of the history of Australian foreign affairs and its impact on our place in the world now, moderated by Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia and Papua New Guinea have a strong and unique relationship, with ties spanning historical, economic, political and cultural spheres. The depth of our shared history goes far beyond the Kokoda Track and wartime experiences that most Australians associate with PNG. Many Australians don’t realise that PNG is Australia’s nearest neighbour and former colony, marking 42 years of independence this year.The strong personal relationships that existed at the time of independence are deteriorating and with them an understanding of PNG in Australia, particularly among the next generation of Australian leaders. At the same time, youth engagement in politics on both sides of the Torres Strait is at an historic low. On 10 April the Lowy Institute Aus-PNG Network hosted a panel of exceptional young Australian and Papua New Guinean leaders who are working to engage their peers in the political process.
 
Panellists included Barbra Thomas, Executive Director of The Voice Inc., a youth leadership development organisat

With Western countries consumed by domestic problems, will it be China and Russia that now define the rules of global politics?On 11 April the Lowy Institute at the National Gallery of Victoria hosted an in-conversation with International Securirty Program Director Euan Graham and Nonresident Fellow Bobo Lo on the new Lowy Institute Paper published by Penguin Random House Australia, A Wary Embrace. In a disorderly world, each has become increasingly assertive, and their partnership has emerged from relative obscurity to acquire a new prominence. Yet appearances are deceptive. Beijing and Moscow have shown no capacity to cooperate on grand strategy or establish new international norms. This is no authoritarian alliance, but a partnership of strategic convenience – pragmatic, calculating and constrained.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How can it be that governments are wealthier than ever, yet fewer citizens enjoy the benefits that such wealth can bring? Never before have so many governments owned so much wealth in the form of financial assets amassed in state-controlled investment funds. Despite this, deficits persist, inequality worsens and the effects of the 2008 crash still reverberate. “Citizens’ wealth” – creating an additional source of revenue by turning states into wealth-owners - is a long-established idea, but we are yet to see this powerful tool used to its full effect.On 5 April the Lowy Institute hosted for a panel discussion on this topic with Angela Cummine, political theorist and author of Citizens’ Wealth: Why (and How) Sovereign Funds Should be Managed By the People For the People; David Murray, former CEO of the Commonwealth Bank; Paul Cleary, senior journalist at The Australian; and Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Dr John Edwards.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Climate change accelerates instability in unexpected ways. Growing water scarcity, declining crop yields, and rising prices are catalysts for displacement and conflict, as witnessed in recent years in Syria and in the European migration crisis. The national security dimension of climate change receives little attention in Australia, but is the subject of intense focus overseas - particularly in the United States.On 4 April the Lowy Institute screened a condensed version of the 2016 film, The Age of Consequences, which analyses the link between climate change and security, followed by a panel discussion. The panel comprised Sherri Goodman, Founder and Executive Director of the CNA Military Advisory Board; Ian Dunlop, an international oil, gas and coal industry expert and former chair of the Australian Coal Association; and Alan Dupont, Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute and CEO of the Cognoscenti Group.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With Western countries consumed by domestic problems, will it be China and Russia that now define the rules of global politics?On 5 April the Lowy Institute hosted the Sydney launch of A Wary Embrace, a new Lowy Institute Paper published by Penguin Random House Australia with Bobo Lo. In a disorderly world, each has become increasingly assertive, and their partnership has emerged from relative obscurity to acquire a new prominence. Yet appearances are deceptive. Beijing and Moscow have shown no capacity to cooperate on grand strategy or establish new international norms. This is no authoritarian alliance, but a partnership of strategic convenience – pragmatic, calculating and constrained.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Lowy Institute's East Asia Program Director Merriden Varrall speaks to Mark 'Dashan (大山)' Rowswell, an extremely prominent Canadian Chinese-language comedian and performer, about Dashan's perspective on what constitutes 'friendship' in China, how Chinese choose to self-identify and the notion of 'identity bubbles', and the consequences of all this for China's international relationships.Dashan will in Australia performing in Mandarin at the Melbourne Comedy Festival from 13 April to 16 April, and at the Sydney Comedy Festival on 28 April.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

'Grievance against the rest of the world is not just a part of Trump’s ideology, it is at its very core.' That is the judgement of Dr Thomas Wright, a Fellow at the Brookings Institution and a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. That sense of grievance is already affecting America’s posture in Asia, with the Trump administration’s decision to walk away from the TPP trade agreement.On 20 March in Melbourne, Dr Thomas Wright addressed the Lowy Institute on what the Trump Administration means for America’s place in Asia’s economic and strategic order.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On 16 March Professor Koh addressed the Lowy Institute on the future of international law under the Trump administration. Professor Koh is an international lawyer and legal scholar. From 2009 to 2012, he served as the Legal Adviser to the State Department in the Obama administration, and was the most senior legal adviser to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He also served as the Dean of Yale Law School, and returned there as a professor in international law following his departure from the State Department.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With protectionist sentiment growing around the world, on 7 March the Lowy Institute hosted the Shadow Treasurer the Hon. Chris Bowen MP, who reflected on the importance of growing trade pathways in our region and the continuing importance of trade for a small open economy such as Australia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

International Security Program Director Euan Graham speaks to Seiichiro Takagi, Senior Research Advisor at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, on China's upcoming 19th Party Congress, the impact of the Trump Administration on regional security, and the current state of Japan-China and Japan-Australia relations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

International Security Program Director Euan Graham speaks to Lieutenant Colonel David Skalicky from the US Air Force on the F-22s now operating out of RAAF Base Tindal, the differences between the F-22 and other aircraft, and the Australian exchange pilot currently flying in Skalicky's squadron.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At a time of significant uncertainty about the shape of the future global order, the Australian Government is preparing its first foreign policy white paper since 2003. On 15 February, the Lowy Institute hosted the former Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter Varghese AO in conversation with Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove and Director of Polling Alex Oliver for a timely discussion about the White Paper process and how Australia should position itself to advance its interests over the next decade.Peter Varghese AO was Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade from 2012 to 2016 and is the 14th Chancellor of the University of Queensland. His previous appointments include High Commissioner to India, Director-General of the Office of National Assessments, High Commissioner to Malaysia, and Senior Advisor (International) to the Prime Minister of Australia. Mr Varghese was appointed an Officer in the Order of Australia (AO) in 2010 for distinguished ser