The Lowy Institute

We are now halfway through Donald Trump’s first term as president of the United States. With a polarised US public and a fraying international order, the president faces his first electoral report card since 2016 in the mid-term elections. The results will influence the trajectory of US politics and foreign policy for the next two, and possibly six, years. Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove gave an address on the Trump administration, the effect of the midterms on US foreign policy and what this means for Australia and the world order. The event was chaired by Lowy Institute’s Research Director Alex Oliver.Michael Fullilove has served as the Executive Director of the Lowy Institute since 2012. He writes widely on Australian foreign policy, US foreign policy and global issues in publications including The New York Times, Financial Times, Foreign Policy, and Foreign Affairs, as well as the Australian press. In 2015, Dr Fullilove delivered the Boyer Lectures, which were published as A Larger

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis and the elevation of the G20 to a leader-level forum. Ten years on, has the G20 fulfilled its promise of improving global economic cooperation, particularly in the current environment of rising geopolitical tension and trade frictions? With only a few weeks until the Buenos Aires Summit, Dr David Gruen, Australia’s G20 Sherpa, discussed the role of the G20 in the global economic order, including its progress since 2008 and prospects for the future.Dr David Gruen is the Deputy Secretary, Economic, at the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, and G20 Sherpa. Before joining the Department in September 2014, he was Executive Director of The Macroeconomic Group at the Australian Treasury.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Monday 29 October the Lowy Institute hosted the Hon Bill Shorten MP, Leader of the Opposition, for a major foreign policy address. Mr Shorten has served as the Leader of the Opposition since 2013. He was first elected as the Member for Maribyrnong at the 2007 Federal election. He served as a Cabinet Minister in the Rudd and Gillard Governments.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In an age of ubiquitous data, the “scarce factor is the ability to understand that data and extract value from it”. Google’s Chief Economist, Hal R Varian, and Lowy Institute’s International Economy Director Roland Rajah had a discussion on the economics of data, how data can drive innovation and improve our wellbeing, and the debate over its effects on competition and the appropriate role of government. Dr Varian is an emeritus professor at the University of California, Berkeley, in three departments: business, economics, and information management. He has also taught at MIT, Stanford, Oxford, Michigan and other universities around the world. Professor Varian has published numerous papers in economic theory, industrial organisation, financial economics, econometrics, and information economics. He is the co-author of a bestselling book on business strategy, Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy, and wrote a monthly column for The New York Times from 2000 to 2007.See omnystudio.com/liste

On the eve of the visit to Australia by the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, the Lowy Institute held an event on the issue of the republic and Australia’s place in the world. Constitutional monarchist Julian Leeser MP, Federal Member for Berowra, and Michael Cooney, National Director of the Australian Republic Movement, joined Alex Oliver, Lowy Institute Director of Research, for a panel discussion on whether Australia’s status as a constitutional monarchy affects the way the world see us – and how we see ourselves.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Professor Robert Cribb of the Australia National University (ANU) delivered a keynote address (30 minutes) on the place of minorities in Indonesia, as part of the 2018 Indonesia Update, presented in cooperation with the ANU. This was followed by a panel discussion (35 minutes) featuring Professor Cribb; Dr Sandra Hamid, the Asia Foundation’s country representative in Indonesia; and Associate Professor Charlotte Setijadi, Singapore Management University. Tim Johnston moderated.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Power of the Australia National University (ANU) Indonesia Project delivered the 2018 political update (approximately 35 minutes), followed by a panel discussion on Indonesia’s upcoming April 2019 elections (approximately 40 minutes) featuring Power, ANU; Sidney Jones, the director of the Institute for Policy Analysis in Jakarta; and Aaron Connelly, the director of the Southeast Asia Project at the Lowy Institute. Ulla Fionna moderated.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The international order is under strain. Rising powers want to rewrite the rules, Western leaders are turning inwards, and technology is breaking down barriers. What can middle powers do in response? Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove moderated a discussion with Ralf Beste, Head of Policy Planning at the German Federal Foreign Office, Volker Perthes, Director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, and Gudrun Wacker, Senior Fellow in the Asia Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In November, New Caledonia will face an independence referendum. This will bring to an end the Matignon and Noumea Accords, which delivered 30 years of peace after a bloody civil war. France is overseeing preparations.Australia's position continues to be simple support for the full implementation of the 1998 Noumea Accord, including a genuine referendum process. The Accord planned a scheduled handover and sharing of some responsibilities by France, and economic re-balancing between the mainly European and mainly Kanak areas. It stipulates that the final vote would decide three things: New Caledonia's future international status; whether France retains responsibility for defence, foreign affairs, currency, law and order, and justice; and citizenship, or employment/voting rights, for longstanding residents.On August 15, CarriageWorks presented the world premiere of new work by resident company Marrugeku, with an inter-cultural and trans-Indigenous production, featuring Australian and New Caledonia dancers of Fi

The Lowy Institute hosted an address by the Hon Tuilaepa Aiono Sailele Malielegaoi, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Samoa.The Pacific is back in international headlines. New partners in the region are contributing to a fast-changing geostrategic landscape, and old partners are ‘stepping up’ in response. But how new are these current dynamics? How do Pacific Islanders view the movements and machinations of large powers in the Pacific and how have they responded to such developments? How are Pacific Island countries shaping the engagement of partners in the region, and how will they continue to shape them in the future? We delved into these issues and more with Samoa’s Prime Minister.The Hon Tuilaepa Aiono Sailele Malielegaoi is the leader of the Human Rights Protection Party, which currently retains 47 of the 50 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. He has been a Member of Parliament since 1981 and has previously served as Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. In 1998 he became the sixth Pri

Whether in terms of denuclearisation talks with North Korea, an escalating trade war with China, or the promotion of a concept and strategy for a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’, the pace of US statecraft in Asia has been frenetic in recent months. Has the United States reclaimed the initiative in great power competition in the region? Are bold but often contradictory US initiatives unpicking or strengthening America’s position in Asia? Will a ‘new era in US economic commitment’ to the region prove more meaningful than the last, which ended with US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership? And how do regional partners and adversaries interpret recent developments?Alex Oliver, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute, chaired a panel discussion with Gordon Flake, CEO of the Perth USAsia Centre, together with Lowy Institute Senior Fellows Dr Euan Graham and Richard McGregor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia now has its fifth prime minister in five years. What does this mean for Australia’s place in the world? Does our reputation as the ‘coup capital of the democratic world’ damage Australia’s international standing? How does it affect our ability to run a coherent foreign policy? And what might we expect from the Morrison government? Four Lowy Institute experts discussed the global implications of Australia’s political crisis. Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove chaired a discussion with Director of Research Alex Oliver, Senior Fellow Richard McGregor, and Director of the International Security Program Sam Roggeveen.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The future of the Middle East peace process under US President Donald Trump, the use of chemical weapons in Syrian conflict, the implications for the United Nations’ role and its duties – these topics are politically, culturally, and ethically complex and are not easily navigated.The Lowy Institute hosted Mr Nick Kaldas APM, former Director of Internal Oversight Services in the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA), to hear his views on these issues, followed by a question-and-answer session. Mr Kaldas was a former deputy commissioner of the New South Wales Police Force. He has recently returned from two years with the UNRWA based in Jordan, during which time he was seconded as Chief Investigator into the use of chemical weapons in Syria by the UN/OPCW (Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons).See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea have emerged as the testing ground for great power competition between the US and China, and as a lightning rod for rival claimants in the region, as well as Australia and Japan, to assert their own maritime rights.Lowy Institute Senior Fellow Richard McGregor moderated a panel with other pre-eminent experts on the South China Sea – Wu Shicun, of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Linda Jakobson, of China Matters, and Professor Benjamin Schreer of Macquarie University – where they discussed the controversy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Foreign aid is an important resource for the Pacific Islands, and for many countries is a major point of engagement with the region. Yet public information at the project level is sparse, often lacks detail, and is difficult to access. This lack of transparency reduces the effectiveness of aid. It makes it difficult to coordinate aid efforts across multiple stakeholders. It makes it challenging for countries in the Pacific to align aid with their own investment priorities. It makes it harder for donors to learn from each other and from the past. It also reduces the accountability of aid, on both the sending and receiving sides, that flows in to Australia’s immediate region. The Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map helps address this situation. The Pacific Aid Map is an analytical tool designed to enhance aid effectiveness in the Pacific by improving coordination, alignment, and accountability of foreign aid through enhanced transparency of aid flows. The resource has collected data on close to 13,000 projects in 14

At the end of 2017, China announced it had been a year of “remarkable progress” on human rights. However, activists draw attention to an increasingly repressive environment in China, including restrictions on academic freedom; domestic human rights deteriorations in law, policing, and terrorism; the surveillance apparatus; and repression in Tibet and Xinjiang. Behind closed doors, Australia has raised human rights issues with China in annual high-level dialogues, and continues to work on human rights capacity-building projects with Chinese President Xi Jinping. What is the current state of human rights in China, and has the Chinese Communist Party been trying to improve the situation? How have different Australian governments (and others) engaged China on human rights, and how effective have those efforts been? Dr Merriden Varrall, Director of the Lowy Institute’s East Asia Program, moderated a panel with Dr Sophie Richardson, China Director at Human Rights Watch, and Natasha de Silva, Director Internationa

How are human rights in North Korea and broader regional security through North Korean denuclearisation connected, and can one be achieved without the other? Kim Jong-un’s successful pursuit of his nuclear agenda has arguably only been possible because of his ruthless wielding of power and control, and the surveillance and oppression of the North Korean people. The US and its allies want North Korea to denuclearise in the interests of regional and global security. Following the recent meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump, we have focused on if and how genuine denuclearisation can be achieved. But does the lack of any real public accountability that arises from the human rights situation in North Korea mean Kim’s promises at the Singapore summit are just empty rhetoric? Should human rights be a part of the denuclearisation discussion, and if not, what are the implications, both for the North Korean people and broader security? To explore these questions, Dr Merriden

When French President Emmanuel Macron recently visited Australia, the Australian government welcomed France as a stable partner in the Pacific region. Much of this stability relies upon the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, which will hold a referendum on self-determination in November this year. The independence movement Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS) has been campaigning for independence from France for more than three decades. Leading Kanak politician and official FLNKS independence spokesperson Daniel Goa spoke about the lead-up to the referendum, the FLNKS proposal for a Kanaky-New Caledonia republic, and economic options for an independent and sovereign state. At a time when the Australian Government is stepping up engagement in the Pacific region, he discussed implications of the referendum for ties between Australia and one of its closest Pacific neighbours. Daniel Goa is President of Union Calédonienne (UC), the largest member of the FLNKS independence coalition. H

Global wealth and power are shifting eastwards. Three of the world’s four largest economies are in Asia, and the fourth, the United States, is a Pacific power. By 2025, two thirds of the world’s population will live in Asia, and only around a tenth in the West. This transformation is reshaping the global distribution of power, with profound implications for war and peace in the twenty-first century.The Lowy Institute Asia Power Index is an analytical tool for tracking changes in the distribution of power in the region. It aims to sharpen the debate on geopolitics in Asia.The Index ranks 25 countries and territories in terms of their capacity to influence regional events, using 114 indicators across eight thematic measures of power: economic resources and relationships, military capability and defence networks, diplomatic and cultural influence, as well as resilience and future trends.The expert panel of Hervé Lemahieu, Director of the Asian Power and Diplomacy Program; Bonnie Bley, Research Fellow, and Daniel

The Lowy Institute hosted a conversation with Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove and Jessica Tuchman Mathews, former president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the international role of the United States in the era of President Trump.Ms Mathews was president of the Carnegie Endowment for 18 years, and has also worked in the executive and legislative branches of government, in the non-profit arena, in the media, and science policymaking. She is a former director of the Office of Global Issues at the National Security Council, and has covered arms control, energy, environment, science, and technology issues as a member of the Washington Post’s editorial board.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.