Threading The Needle

In this episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday dive deep into the practical use cases of Spend & aMER forecasting models—powerful tools that help brands set budgets with clarity, not guesswork.Taylor walks through real examples, showing how these models adjust for changing costs (like tariffs) and how gross margin shifts ripple through your entire P&L, media plan, and growth strategy. They also unpack why Black Friday/Cyber Monday cohorts often underperform long-term, and how understanding lifetime value can help you spend smarter, not harder.You’ll learn:• Why changing gross margins completely alter your revenue potential• How to reset budgets when tariffs or duties impact COGS• The surprising long-term weakness of Black Friday customer cohorts• How to model incremental spend and know when every new dollar turns negative• Why forecasting isn’t about prediction—it’s about clarity and actionShow Notes:- Ready to stop gambling on unreliable contractors?Check out All

In this episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday unpack the critical connection between forecasting models and creative production. Forecasting isn’t just about predicting numbers … it’s about building a marketing and creative plan that can actually deliver them.Taylor explains why most forecasts fail: brands treat them like predictions instead of action plans. The team breaks down how to bridge that gap by tying financial models to the marketing calendar, identifying offer opportunities, and planning campaigns with excess creative capacity so you’re never scrambling when results fall short.You’ll learn:- Why every forecast depends on your creative pipeline- How to identify bottlenecks that kill forecasting accuracy- The role of growth strategists vs. creative strategists in building clarity- Why true diversity in creative comes from multiple production sources, not one overworked designer- How UGC and creator networks unlock scale and resilienceThe conversation closes with

In this episode of The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday unpack why forecasting isn’t just about models—it’s about execution. They explore how the best brands combine data, marketing calendars, and disciplined ownership to create forecasts that actually hold up in the real world.Drawing from billions in client data, Taylor explains why finance-driven forecasts often fall short—and how integrating qualitative planning and real-time execution makes all the difference. Together, they lay out the framework that separates accurate, actionable forecasts from guesswork.You’ll learn:• Why finance-only forecasting fails in eCommerce• The three-part framework for accurate forecasting (Quantitative, Qualitative, Execution)• How to tie marketing calendars directly to financial models• Tactical steps to make your forecasts more reliable before Q4Show Notes:Ready to start texting smarter? Visit ⁠https://www.postscript.io⁠Explore the Prophit System: ⁠https://www.prophitsystem.com⁠The Ecommerce Pl

In this episode of The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday break down why so many e-commerce leaders rely on guesswork and ambition instead of reality—and how forecasting models like Spend & aMER can change that.Taylor compares these models to a DEXA scan: a clear, data-driven look at your business health. Together, they explain how accurate forecasting systems help you diagnose overspending or underspending, anticipate seasonal changes, and build a roadmap to profitable growth.You’ll learn:- Why most e-commerce budgets are based on wishful thinking- How Spend & aMER models anchor you in reality- The key forecasting tools (Spend, Retention, Event Effect) every brand needs- How to prepare smarter for Q4 and beyondShow Notes:- Ready to start texting smarter?Visit https://www.postscript.io- Explore the Prophit System: https://www.prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world

In this week’s episode of The DTC Hotline, Richard Gaffin is joined once again by Tony “The Chopper” Chopp (VP of Paid Media) and Luke “The Weatherman” Austin (VP of eCommerce Strategy) to take real questions from eComm operators and Admission members—no fluff, just clear, hard-earned answers.They tackle:• What to do when “nothing works” on Meta (and why that diagnosis is often wrong)• How to spot the real business problem hiding behind poor ad performance• Why TikTok creative might crush while Meta flops—and how to close the gap• When to expand into secondary channels like Pinterest or Snapchat (and when not to)• The truth about CPMs—and why chasing lower costs can lead you astray• How to pitch cost caps to your boss so they actually say yes• Why profitable scaling means solving business problems, not just account problemsThis is where your DTC questions get answered in real time.Call or text us: 866-DTC-2263Interested in Admission? Learn more at https://www.youradmission.co/Email: podcast@commonthreadco.com

In this episode of the E-Commerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin is joined by Luke Austin (VP of E-Commerce Strategy at CTC) and Steve Rekuc (Director of Data) to unpack one of CTC’s most powerful forecasting tools: the Spend & aMER Model.This model reveals whether your brand is overspending past the point of profitability—or underspending and leaving growth on the table. By layering in 40+ predictive models, seasonality, and LTV impacts, it provides the clearest roadmap to profitable growth we’ve ever built.You’ll learn:- Why most 8–9 figure brands are shocked when they see their true efficiency curve- How to quantify the real tradeoff between cutting spend and growing top-line revenue- The difference between optimizing for contribution margin today vs. maximizing lifetime margin tomorrow- Why “spending power” is unique to every brand—and how to know yoursGet your FREE mystery shopping report from Stord—compare your CX against two competitors:https://stord.link/mysteryExplore the Prophit System: https:

Get an exclusive look behind the curtain with our VP of Strategy, Luke, as he breaks down how CTC is transforming profit-driven growth through clarity, measurement, and scalable systems. Discover how our incrementality tool, daily forecasting workflows, and creative growth frameworks come together in the “prism”—our metaphor for the integrated decision-making engine that fuels brand success.In This Episode, You’ll Learn:- How geo‑based incrementality tests are lowering ad spend risk and increasing clarity- Why Meta, Google Brand, and Google Non‑Brand all perform differently—and how we prioritize ad dollars accordingly- How we’ve scaled effective channels like YouTube, TikTok, Snapchat, and Pinterest—thanks to high-confidence data and targeted ad credits- The three core “Units of Growth” we use to influence profitable expansionShow Notes:Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at getsaral.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us

In the debut of The DTC Hotline, Richard Gaffin is joined by Tony “The Chopper” Chopp (VP of Paid Media) and Luke “The Weatherman” Austin (VP of eCommerce Strategy) to take real questions from eComm operators and Admission members—no fluff, just unfiltered answers.They tackle:• Why your Meta cost caps aren’t spending (and what to do about it)• How much creative is really “a lot” in today’s ad environment• The best tools for competitor research and ad spying• What to do when LTV is low and repeat purchases are rare• When to launch a new campaign vs. just adding creatives• Why AI is more valuable for strategy than production• The truth about when (or if) eCommerce is “getting better”Call, text, or listen in—this is where your DTC questions get answered in real time.Interested in Admission?Learn more at https://www.youradmission.co/Call or text us: 866-DTC-2263Email: podcast@commonthreadco.comExplore the Prophit System: https://prophitsystem.com

As brands approach the $1M–$10M revenue range, they often find themselves stuck—still hustling, but with slower growth and rising costs. That’s where CTC’s Global Accelerator comes in. In this episode, Richard Gaffin is joined by Joy Sharma and Jan Almuni to share the blueprint for how seven-figure brands break through to eight.They reveal the step-by-step playbook used across dozens of brands in the Accelerator program—and why the secret to scaling isn’t one big move, but the right next move at the right time.You’ll learn:- Why creative volume is a non-negotiable—and how to build it cost-effectively- How the “two-and-two” marketing calendar framework drives consistent growth- What landing page testing can teach you about offers, personas, and real incrementality- Why retention isn’t a backend problem—it’s baked into every step of the growth journeyShow Notes:Get your FREE mystery shopping report from Stord—compare your CX against two competitors:https://stord.link/mysteryExplore the Prophit System: https://p

In this episode of the E-Commerce Playbook Podcast, Taylor Holiday and Richard Gaffin unpack the surprising success of last week’s episode—and explore what it reveals about content that actually resonates.What about the convo with Taylor and Andrew led to such a positive response?Turns out, the answer has less to do with tactics—and everything to do with time, unique perspective, and story.If you’re trying to build content that lasts (not just goes viral), this one’s for you.Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm.Book your strategy demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demo

After months of speculation, testing, and internal debate, CTC put Meta’s new Incremental Attribution Tool to the test—three times.In this episode, Richard Gaffin sits down with VP of Paid Media Tony Chopp to break down what really happened across those tests, including a final geo holdout study using actual Shopify revenue. The result? You’ll learn:- What CTC’s 3 incrementality tests revealed about Meta’s new attribution tool- Why Meta’s results may be overstating impact—especially on new customer acquisition- How to run a high-fidelity geo holdout test with real revenue data- Why “cautiously curious” is the right mindset for adopting new attribution toolsShow Notes:Want to see how real customers experience your brand across channels?Request your FREE Mystery Shopper report from our sponsor, Stord: https://stord.link/mysteryExplore the Prophit System: https://prophitsystem.comHave a question for the podcast?Email us: podcast@commonthreadco.com

In this episode of The Random Show, Taylor Holiday and Andrew Faris sit down for a moment of focus—because something big just happened.Common Thread Collective has a new growth partner. Taylor breaks down what the deal really means, why it isn’t a retirement plan, and how private equity views agencies differently than eComm brands.• Why service businesses generate more cash (and get better multiples)• How CTC nearly collapsed—and what saved it• The real reason agency owners burn out (and how to avoid it)This is a must-watch.Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

In this episode of The Random Show, Taylor Holiday and Andrew Faris sit down for a moment of focus—because something big just happened.Common Thread Collective has a new growth partner. Taylor breaks down what the deal really means, why it isn’t a retirement plan, and how private equity views agencies differently than eComm brands.• Why service businesses generate more cash (and get better multiples)• How CTC nearly collapsed—and what saved it• The real reason agency owners burn out (and how to avoid it)This is a must-watch.Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of eCom

At CTC’s recent Client Summit, Taylor Holiday and Richard Gaffin sat down to unpack what happens when you get out from behind Zoom and into a room with the people you work with. The result? Honest conversations, unexpected insights, and a clearer picture of what brands really need right now.From creative volume challenges to leadership struggles, this episode explores the unspoken truths that surface when vendors and clients share space—and why in-person connection is still one of the most powerful tools for growth.You’ll learn:Why face-to-face conversations uncover issues Zoom never willThe creative volume problem every brand is wrestling with—and how to fix itThe leadership challenge CEOs secretly struggle withHow agencies and brands can build trust and alignment beyond metricsShow Notes:Ready to learn how your consumers truly experience your brand today! Request your FREE report at https://stord.link/mystery Explore the Prophit System: [prophitsystem.com]Have a question for the podcast? Email us at podcast

The Tale of Two Cities in E-Commerce: Winners and Losers in 2025At CTC’s Client Summit, Taylor Holiday shares an unfiltered perspective on where the economy, the world, and the e-commerce landscape are headed—and why the future will be defined by a sharp divide between winners and losers.From macroeconomic pressures to changing consumer behavior, Taylor explains why the current environment isn’t creating a level playing field—and what separates the brands that will thrive from those that will struggle.You’ll learn:- The key economic signals shaping e-commerce in 2025- Why some brands will find massive opportunity while others collapse- How to position your business to be on the winning sideShow Notes:Ready to start texting smarter? Visit postscript.ioExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

Can you turn 14 days into $1.28 million? We did—and we're breaking down exactly how we crushed our million-dollar challenge!In this episode, join Richard and Luke as they unpack the intense 14-day journey that led to massive revenue success. You'll learn:How we strategically turned a critical marketing moment into explosive growth.The day-by-day breakdown of how we overcame a nearly half-million-dollar gap in just four days.Why forecasting, clarity, and a well-engineered brand collaboration were game-changers.Whether you're a marketer, brand owner, or entrepreneur, you'll gain powerful insights into the systems and strategies behind generating massive revenue spikes on tight deadlines.Show Notes:Ready to start texting smarter? Visit postscript.ioExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm

Discover the next chapter in Common Thread Collective’s story as Taylor Holiday takes you behind the scenes of our 12-year journey from a tiny IKEA furnished office and our first Facebook ad experiments with QALO, to the seismic shifts of COVID and our reinvention as a “profit agency.” In this special episode of the podcast, you’ll hear:How CTC evolved from a passion project into a mission-driven agency focused on connecting marketing efforts to real financial outcomesThe cultural transformation that refocused us on customer experience and shareholder valueThe story behind our strategic growth partnership with Acacia—and what it means for our technology roadmap and your bottom lineShow Notes:Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comCommon Thread listeners get $250 by depositing $5,000 or spending $5,000 using the Mercury IO credit card within your first 90 days (or do both for $500) at mercury.com/ctc.!The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions

In this episode of the podcast, we dismantle the old school attribution windows holding your ad strategy hostage and reveal a simple framework for measuring true incremental ROAS.What you’ll discover:Why standard “7-day click” and “1-day view” settings both mislead youHow to run a zero cost geo holdout test for real incremental dataWhen to stick with your current settings and how to apply a correction factorWhat Meta’s new incremental conversion optimization means for your campaignsBuilding one unified measurement system to compare Facebook, Google, and beyondReady to see your real ROI?Run your free holdout study now at commonthreadco.com/pages/incrementality and stop guessing.Show Notes:Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comCommon Thread listeners get $250 by depositing $5,000 or spending $5,000 using the Mercury IO credit card within your first 90 days (or do both for $500) at mercury.com/ctc.!The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you

Is your brand feeling the squeeze? You’re not alone.In today’s episode, we break down three essential moves every DTC and ecommerce brand must make to survive—and thrive—amid rising bankruptcy rates and tightening capital markets.You’ll learn:Why capital constraints are killing growth—and how to turn your supplier into a lenderHow to generate organic demand by tapping into pop culture and communityThe critical Q4 inventory planning strategy that could save your cash flowWe’re seeing a tale of two cities in ecommerce: brands that are scaling and brands that are dying. This episode gives you the playbook to land in the first group.Show Notes:Go to https://bit.ly/4mFOWa1 to get 20% off your first 3 months of Omnisend with code CTC20.Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecommWatch the Andrew Faris Podcast: https://youtu.be/F0u0JF8ogSc?si=N0pII8Fxdvc8pg8I

Ecommerce brands are quietly shutting their doors, but what's really behind this sudden wave of closures? In this episode, we dive deep into exclusive industry data, consumer trends, and expert analysis to uncover what's truly happening behind the scenes in the ecommerce space.Join our panel of industry experts as we reveal:Why more brands than ever are filing for bankruptcy.The surprising trends impacting consumer spending.How major economic factors like tariffs and inflation are shaping the industry.Which brands are thriving—and who's at greatest risk.Don't get caught off guard. Watch now to discover what's happening, why it's critical for your brand, and how you can adapt to survive (and even thrive) during this turbulent time in ecommerce.Sign up for a 30 day trial and TaxCloud will give you free migration onboarding services when you decide to make the switch. Check it out at taxcloud.com/threadExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.comThe Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — e