Money For The Rest Of Us

How contrarians combine value and momentum to take positions opposite what the consensus believes. What is the consensus view in today's financial markets and how are contrarians positioned.Topics covered include:Five attributes of successful investorsWhy does the consensus expect stagflationHow central banks have performed in previous tightening cyclesThree reasons central banks tightening results in a recessionWhen have interest rates peaked in prior tightening cyclesHow stocks tend to do well when investors get extremely pessimisticWhat are examples of contrarian investments in the current market environmentHow contrarian opportunities involve both value and momentumWhat are some additional examples of being contrarian outside of the investment arenaFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsOurCrowd - Invest in pre-vetted startupsFarmTogether - Invest in farmlandShow NotesWeekly Market Pulse: Time To Get Contrarian? by Joseph Y. Calhoun III—Alhambra InvestmentBofA Says Fund Managers Most

Why food costs are soaring and what we can do about it. Why inflation rates could start to drop. Why commodity futures, including agriculture futures, have been lousy inflation hedges, and what has worked better.Topics covered include:Previous investment recommendations by Money For the Rest of Us to combat inflationWhy commodity futures hedge against unexpected inflation but have underperformed inflation over the long-termA recommended ETF for investing in commodity futuresWhat is causing the jump in food prices and fertilizerWhy the risk of food shortages is increasing and what are remedies to solve itWhy agriculture price increases don't always lead to higher food costs at the storeWhy inflation rates could slow in the coming monthsFor more information on this episode click here.Episode SponsorsComposer automated trading platform Policygenius Show NotesUkraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis by Jack Nicas—The New York TimesRussia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing record-high food prices—The

We review the ten asset categories that trade on major stock exchanges, many of which are smaller niches in which individual investors have an edge over institutional investors.How to invest in business development companies, a small segment of the markets that has returned 9% annualized with dividend yields of 8%.Topics covered include:How securities trading has changed and why are there so many trading platformsWhy do institutions still pay trading commissionsWhen did stock exchanges start and which are the largestWhat are direct and indirect investment vehiclesWhat are the ten asset types that trade on stock exchangesHow to invest in business development companies (BDCs)For more information on this episode click here.SponsorsWealthfront - get your first $5,000 managed for free for lifeLinkedIn - post your first job for freeShow NotesNew York Stock Exchange (NYSE)—Corporate Finance InstituteOff-Exchange Trading To Continue To Grow In US by Shanny Basar—Traders MagazineHow We Analyzed Wall Street Block

Stories determine economic and financial outcomes, both our own and the world in aggregate. Here's how to craft and follow stories that will lead to better financial outcomes and greater happiness.Topics covered include:How financial narratives give us the confidence to take action in the face of uncertainty and potential lossHow the greater the stakes, the more we rely on anecdotal evidence rather than statisticsIs the world more stable and predictable or in a constant state of disorderHow stories determine what we buy and aspire to and how marketers try to influence those storiesHow stories of fear and greed influenced economic outcomes in the 1920s and 1930sHow more precise stories lead to greater confidence and potentially to manipulation.How to get off the hedonic treadmill in order to be happierThanks to OurCrowd and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesJoseph Campbell & The Hero’s Journey by Tamlorn Chase—Odyssey OnlinePanarchy: Unde

This week, we revisit a classic episode released five years ago. In a newly recorded introduction, David shares the background on the episode and why he chose to release it again in its newly edited form.Topics covered include:The availability heuristic and confirmation biasHow to deal with extreme events when most days are just like the day beforeHow chaos and unpredictability is used as a leadership strategyWhy do we need a point of view to guide our actions when investingHow to manage financially in a increasingly complex and risky worldShow NotesUncertainty – Lawrence M. Krauss – EdgeRegression To the Mean – James J. O’Donnell – EdgeExcerpts from Seth Klarman’s 2016 year end letter to his clients as quoted in the New York TimesMessy: The Power of Disorder To Transform Our Lives – Tim HarfordSeth Godin Course on Presenting To PersuadeUltra-Easy Money: Digging The Hole Deeper? – William R. WhiteSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-

How societies have functioned without leaders, including leaderless megacities that survived over 800 years.Topics covered include:Is geopolitics more like chess or pokerWhy analysts think Putin will soon agree to a settlement with UkraineDo most development occur from the top-down or bottom-upWhat are some examples of leaderless societies and organizationsHow social capital and enforcement mechanisms allow the world to function without leaders telling everyone what to doHow companies are struggling with the workplace of the future and the role of leadershipWhy do we need more leadership and fewer bossesThanks to Mint Mobile and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesThe Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George FriedmanThinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie DukePossible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice—U.S.-China Perception MonitorWhy Is Leadership Important? by

Will the world experience both inflation and subpar economic growth at the same time?Topics covered include:What is inflation and what causes itWhat have been the largest contributors to recent high inflationWhy does not everyone experience inflation in the same wayWhy inflation measures are subjectiveWhat are long-term deflationary forces faces the global economyWhat is stagflation and what causes itHow do we monitor stagflation to see if it is comingThanks to FarmTogether and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episodeShow NotesConsumer Price Index News Release February 10, 2022—U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsAlternate Inflation Charts—John Williams' Shadow Government StatisticsOPEC chief says there's 'no capacity in the world' that could replace Russia's 7 million barrels a day in oil supply-Adam Morgan McCarthy—Markets InsiderSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What can we do to prepare if the Russian-Ukraine war gets even worse?Topics covered include:How risk and uncertainty differ as does how we manage themWhat we can learn from Ukraine and Russian citizens on dealing with uncertaintyWhat will be the financial impact of the sanctions against Russia and the ruble collapseWhy and how we should all prepare for potential cyberattacksWhy now is the time to make sure you have an appropriate asset allocationHow holding dollars, euros, or stablecoin can help protect against currency collapsesWhat we can do to help UkraineFor more information on this episode click here.Show NotesJPMorgan Says Selling Stocks Now Carries Too Much Risk by Nikos Chrysoloras—BloombergUkraine conflict: Dread in Kyiv as huge Russian convoy advances by Lyse Doucet—BBCRussia launches fierce rocket attack on Ukrainian city of Kharkiv by Guy Chazan, John Reed, Max Seddon, Henry Foy, John Paul Rathbone, and Demetri Sevastopulo—Financial TimesHow new sanctions could cripple Russia’s economy—The Ec

How to decide the investing scale and timeframe that works best for your temperament.Topics covered include:How stocks perform in the days and weeks following catastrophic eventsWhat are some potential financial impacts of Russia's invasion into UkraineHow complex systems operate at different scales and timeframesWhat are examples of different scales and timeframes for investingHow tactical asset allocation strategies workWhy schema and rules of thumb develop and how do they get passed onHow to decide on which investment approach works best for youThanks to Mint Mobile and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesNikkei 225 Index - 67 Year Historical Chart—MacrotrendsPanarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems by Lance H. Gunderson (Editor)Allocate SmartlyProtective Asset Allocation (PAA): A Simple Momentum-Based Alternative for Term Deposits by Wouter J. Keller and Jan Willem KeuningTrying Not to Try: The Art and Science of Sp

Key takeaways from one of the greatest personal finance novels of all time.Topics covered include:Why it is easier to keep doing the same old thingWhy partners should discuss their financesWhy debt can be suffocatingWhy leverage can be dangerousOne of the most satisfying ways to give away wealthThanks to OurCrowd and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesMiddlemarch by George EliotMiddlemarch Book Summary—StonoryRebecca Mead/"'Middlemarch' and Me"—The New Yorker (Video)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How lifecycle investing and risk parity portfolios can assist you in having sufficient assets to retire. What are the two types of time diversification and why is one flawed?Topics covered include:What is settled work and what are some examplesHow does lifecycle investing work and should you consider itWhy investing in stocks and other volatile asset classes is riskier over longer holding periodsWhat are risk-parity portfolios and how to evaluate themThanks to Masterworks for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesThe moral calculations of a billionaire by Eli Saslow—The Washington PostLife-Cycle Investing and Leverage: Buying Stock on Margin Can Reduce Retirement Risk by Ian Ayres and Barry J. NalebuffLifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young, Forum Discussion by Steve Reading on bogleheads.orgWhat Practitioners Need to Know… About Time Diversification (corrected March 2015) by Mark Kritzman—Financial Analysts Journal Volume 71, Number 1Wishful Thinking About

How stablecoins are similar and different from other monetary assets. What are stablecoin risks. Why central bank digital currencies are one of the biggest threats to stablecoins.Topics covered include:Why the Federal Reserve and other central banks are exploring issuing their own digital currenciesWhat is the difference between public and private moneyHow deposit insurance and central bank actions prevent runs on private moneyHow money market mutual funds are a type of stablecoinHow true stablecoins and algorithmic stablecoins differWhat is driving the demand for stablecoinsWhat are the risks of stablecoinsThanks to LinkedIn and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesMoney and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation January 2022—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemTaming Wildcat Stablecoins by Gary B. Gorton and Jeffery ZhangMoney Stock Measures - H.6 Release—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemTop

We explore four reasons to sell an asset with a focus on the Ark Innovation ETF, Bitcoin, and equity REITs. We also put the current stock market sell-off into historical perspective.Topics covered include:What are lousy reasons to sell an investmentWhat is a sell disciplineWhat are four good reasons to sell an investmentWhy and why not to invest in the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK)Why growth stocks are getting crushed in the current market sell-offHow frequently does the stock market correct by more than 10%Thanks to Mint Mobile for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesBitcoin Bounces Back After Falling Below $33,000 by Anna Hirtenstein—The Wall Street JournalSelling Out, Memos From Howard Marks—Oaktree Capital ManagementHere's Cathie Wood's advice to her fund's investors after a 58% sell-off in Ark's flagship ETF by Matthew Fox—Markets InsiderRelated Episodes291: How To Survive the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Shutdown302: Investing is Not KnowingSee Privacy Policy at h

What are the pros and cons of the four approaches to managing retirement savings. How to implement a bucketing or time segmentation retirement investing approach.Topics covered include:Why it takes time to find a retirement pattern that fitsHow retirement investing is a balance between safety-first and probability-based as well as maintaining optionality and committing.How total return investing differs from a safety-first approachWhat are products allow for a risk floor but also provide some potential growthHow a time segmentation or bucket approach to retirement investing worksThanks to Policygenius and Masterworks for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesRetirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success (The Retirement Researcher Guide Series) by Wade PfauA Model Approach to Selecting a Personalized Retirement Income Strategy by Alejandro Murguia and Wade D. PfauThe Four Approaches to Managing Retirement Income Risk by

Small and mid-cap stocks have underperformed large-cap stocks for over a decade. Is now the time to increase your allocation?Topics covered include:How big are small and mid-cap stocksHow have small and mid-cap stocks performed relative to large-cap stocksHow have active small and mid-cap managers performed relative to indexing optionsAre bigger IPOs contributing to small and mid-cap stocks underperformanceHow expensive or cheap are small-cap stocks relative to large-capWhat is the capital asset pricing model and how do academics use it to identify outperforming factorsHow value, momentum, and quality drive small-cap stock outperformanceHow to invest in small and mid-cap stocksThanks to Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesThe Morningstar Active/Passive BarometerInitial Public Offerings: Updated Statistics January 5, 2022, by Jay R. Ritter—Warrington College of Business, University of FloridaThe Nexus of Anomalies-Stock Returns-Asset Pricing Mo

We answer listener questions in our final episode of 2021.Topics covered include:Estimating financial market returns in the next thirty yearsInvesting in artWhether stocks will no longer existHow to start investingFidelity's new Bitcoin ETFHow mutual funds are pricedHow to teach family members about investingVolatility versus drawdownsHow to face the uncertainty of crashing stocks, rising interest rates, and numerous other economic and financial threatsDavid's four most recent investments he made in his personal portfolioThanks to Policygenius and OurCrowd for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What is Web 3.0 and how will it transform the world? How you can invest your time and money in decentralized autonomous organizations and other Web3 projects.Topics covered include:What are Web 1.0, Web 2.0, and Web 3.0 and how do they differWhat are decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs)How DAOs operate and what are some examplesHow to register one's Web 3.0 user nameHow the Ethereum network, a major part of Web3, is changingHow to participate and invest in DAOs and other Web3 projectsThanks to LinkedIn and Commonstock for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesDecentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs)—EthereumState of the DAOs #0 | Oct 6th, 2021 by BanklessDAO Writers Guild—BanklessDAODecentralized Autonomous Organizations;The New Coordination Frontier by Calvinme—MediumOrganization Legos: The State of DAO Tooling by Nichanan Kesonpat—MediumOpenOrgs.infoSnapshotDeepDAOENSUniswap ProtocolGas and Fees—EthereumUltra Sound MoneyProof of Stake (PoS)—Ether

How different asset classes and investment strategies have performed during periods of unexpectedly high inflation. While trend and momentum strategies have performed the best, what are some of the challenges with implementing those strategies.Topics covered include:What has led to today's high inflation environment and why it is uniqueHow current demographic and technology trends are disinflationaryHow many inflationary regimes have there been in the pastHow stocks, residential housing, commodities, collectibles performed during high inflation environments.How trend following and momentum have been the best performing strategy during high inflation environments.Which trend following and momentum approaches have worked best for individual investors.How managed futures strategies workThanks to OurCrowd and Egnyte for sponsoring the episode. Here is more information on Money For the Rest of Us Plus.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesUS Budget Deficit Hits $2.77 Trillion in 2021, 2nd

With oil, natural gas, coal, and gasoline at the highest prices in eight years, we consider if there is an energy crisis due to an over-reliance on renewable energy sources.Topics covered include:How high have prices risen for oil, gasoline, natural gas, and coalWhy rising energy prices is a multifaceted problem as illustrated by coalHow the global energy mix has changed for power productionWhy investment capital is flowing to renewable energy projects rather than fossil fuel projectsWhy a clean energy transition leads to more volatile fossil fuel pricesHow higher oil prices lead to greater adoption of electric vehiclesHow renewable energy combined with battery technology will create lead to energy on-demand solutionsThanks to Egnyte and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.For more information on this episode click here.Show NotesUS coal prices jump to highest level since 2009 by Myles McCormick—Financial TimesChina’s Energy Crisis Complicates Its Plans for Climate Announcements Ahead of COP26 by Sha

What conditions need to be in place for an asset bubble to continue and how that applies to stocks, cryptocurrency, and houses.Topics covered include:How to determine if there is an asset bubbleWhat are microbubbles and anti-bubblesHow the cannabis stock bubble burstWhat is required to sustain an asset bubbleHow the current runup in home prices differs from the housing bubble in the mid-2000sWhat structural changes have led to the high valuations for U.S. stocksWhat is the Great Wealth Transfer and will it impact stock pricesThanks to Commonstock and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode.Show NotesAll-Transactions House Price Index for Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore, CA (MSAD)—Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisS&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Francisco Home Price Index—Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisWhat Pops Stock Market Bubbles? Only Surprises, Rob Arnott Says by Vildana Hajric and Michael P. Regan—BloombergYes. It's a Bubble. So What? by Rob Arnott, Bradford Cornell, and Shane Shepherd—Research AffiliatesBubble, Bub