Money For The Rest Of Us

Why long-term U.S. stock market outperformance could be because it has avoided major catastrophes. Does an over-reliance on historical U.S. stock returns when modeling retirement outcomes lead to spending rates that are too high?Topics covered include:Why you might consider earthquake insuranceWhat is survivorship bias and what are some examplesWhy the U.S. is an outlier when it comes to stock market performanceWhy the 4% retirement spending rule might be too highIf the 4% spending rule is too high, what can retirees do instead to have enough for retirementWhy the size and scale of the U.S. economy provide some resistance to catastrophesFor more information on this episode click here.Thanks to our SponsorsShopifyMasterworks – invest in contemporary artShow NotesHomefactsSurvivorship Bias—Matt RickardIs The United States A Lucky Survivor: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach by Jules H. van Binsbergen, Et al.—SSRNThe Financial History of Emerging Markets: New Indices by Bryan Taylor—SSRNThe (Time-Varying) Imp

What are the pros and cons of a simple stock and bond portfolio consisting of two funds or ETFs? Given U.S. stocks have significantly outperformed the rest of the world over the past decade, is there even a role for non-U.S. stocks in your investment portfolio?Topics covered include:How have 60/40 and similar portfolios performed over the long-termWhat are the advantages and disadvantages of a 60/40 portfolioWhat is the expected return of a 60/40 portfolio and what should be included?What has contributed to U.S. stocks outperforming non-U.S. stocks over the past decadeWhy have emerging markets stocks done so poorlyWhat has to happen for U.S. stocks to continue to outperform non-U.S. stocksFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsUse this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn Jobs.Go here to sign up for the free weekly Money For the Rest of Us Insiders Guide email newsletterShow NotesBlackRock vs. Goldman in the Fight Over 60/40 by James Mackintosh—The Wall Street JournalBattered 60-40

We consider four case studies in which individuals struggle to decide what to do with their investment portfolios.Topics include:Why it's so difficult to reenter the stock market after sitting on the sidelines and what to do insteadWhat are the risks of having a too aggressive portfolio allocation in retirement and what to do insteadWhat to do when an investment strategy has worked really well but you feel it is time to make a changeHow to decide on an appropriate portfolio mix after a significant financial changeYou can learn more about Money for the Rest of Us Plus here.For more information on this episode click here.Related Episodes306: Three Approaches to Asset Allocation401: Why Diversifying Your Portfolio Feels AwfulShow NotesCase studies were pulled from the following Plus episodes:287 Plus: Coronavirus Update, Mid Month Investment Conditions and Overcoming the Fear of Investing306 Plus: Member Profile, Bond Investing, and Emerging Technology310 Plus: Mid Month Update and a Member Wants to Realloc

What you need to know to confidently invest in bonds.Topics covered include:Key components of bond investing include face value, coupon rates, yield-to-maturity, duration, and convexityHow to decide between owning longer-term or short-term bondsHow to decide whether to own individual bonds or bond funds and ETFsWhen to use active bond management versus bond indexingHow bullet bond ETFs work and when to use themHow to know when to invest in municipal bonds and corporate bondsWhen should you own foreign bondsShould you own bonds in taxable or tax-deferred accountsA bond case study based on current interest ratesFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsMoney Pickle - Schedule a free 45-minute video chat with a vetted financial advisor and ask them anything about your financial situation. Go here to schedule your free session.Fundrise - The largest direct-to-investor alternative investment platform in the U.S.Show NotesA Complete Guide to Investing in I Bonds and TIPS—Money for the Rest of UsI

How sophisticated AI apps from OpenAI and other companies create articles, art, and other works that have never existed. How generative AI will impact business owners, employees, students, and financial markets.Topics include:How AI is creating personal finance articles and other creative worksChatGPT's attempt at writing a script for the Money For the Rest of Us podcastHow ChatGPT and other large language models workWhat are the risks and flaws of generative AIHow can we adapt and take advantage of generative AISponsorsMasterworks – invest in contemporary artNetSuite - the leading integrated cloud business software suiteShow NotesWe Are Here To Create: A Conversation with Kai-Fu Lee—EdgeCNET Is Quietly Publishing Entire Articles Generated by AI by Frank Landymore—FuturismCNET Money—CNETShould You Break a CD Early for a Better Rate by AI engine and edited by Jaclyn DeJohn—CNETNerdWallet, Inc. Q3 2022 Earnings Call—NerdWalletOpenAIThe Backstory of ChatGPT Creator OpenAI by Berber Jin and Miles Kruppa—The Wall

We analyze the worrisome national debt situation in the U.S., UK, and Japan and consider what will determine the likelihood of defaultTopics covered include:How big is the national debt in the U.S., UK, and JapanWhy Japan and UK interest rates have increasedWhen do federal government debts jump the mostWhat two numbers are key to whether a level of national debt is sustainableWhat are five ways indebted countries have reduced the relative size of their debtWhy quantitative easing is not a solution to a national debt crisisFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsShopify FundriseShow NotesDebt to the Penny—U.S. Treasury Fiscal DataFederal Debt and the Debt Limit in 2022—Congressional Research ServiceCan the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? by Ricardo Reis—London School of Economics and Political ScienceUK government debt and deficit: June 2022—Office for National StatisticsJapan's Experience with Yield Curve Control by Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard—Liberty Street EconomicsWhat

We kick off 2023 by answering your questions on making portfolio changes, risk tolerance, the strong dollar, inflation and retirement, influential books, and other topics.For more information on this episode click here.Episode SponsorsThanks to LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode. Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn Jobs.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How public equity REITs differ from private REITs. Why investors are selling out of private REITs and why private REIT sponsors like Blackstone and Starwood are limiting investors' ability to do so.Topics covered include:What are public and private real estate investment trustsWhy has Blackstone's BREIT been such a successWhy investors are trying to exit private REITsWhy commercial property values are fallingIs now a good time to invest in public and private REITs?For more information on this episode click here.SponsorsPolicygeniusLinkedIn – Post your job for freeShow NotesHow the gates closed on Blackstone’s runaway real estate vehicle by Antoine Gara, Sujeet Indap, and Kaye Wiggins—Financial TimesInvestors Yank Money From Commercial-Property Funds, Pressuring Real-Estate Values by Konrad Putzier and Peter Grant—The Wall Street JournalHow the gates closed on Blackstone’s runaway real estate vehicle by Antoine Gara, Sujeet Indap, and Kaye Wiggins—Financial TimesInvestors Yank Money From Commercial-Proper

How to solve the conundrum that consumption reductions lead to economic disasters while benefiting the environment.Topics covered include:Why consumption, fossil fuel usage, and carbon emissions keep growingHow fossil fuel consumption goes well beyond heating and transportation uses but is tied to agriculture, steel, and cement productionThe four times global consumption fell and the dire economic consequences that resultedHow the world is consuming twice as many resources as the planet can sustainHow the economy could still grow while reducing the environmental impactFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsMasterClass - Get two annual memberships for the price of oneMasterworks – invest in contemporary artShow NotesHow the World Really Works: The Science Behind How We Got Here and Where We’re Going by Vaclav SmilThe Day the World Stops Shopping: How Ending Consumerism Saves the Environment and Ourselves by J.B. MackinnonGlobal Footprint NetworkRelated Episodes262: Better Not Bigger, Circ

What are the best options for safely investing cash.Topics covered include:High-yield savings accountsCertificates of DepositsGovernment BondsMoney Market Mutual FundsWhen should you invest in long-term bondsWhy some savings apps try to look like banks but they are notWhat happens when central banks lose moneyWhere not to deposit cash for safetyFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsMasterClass - Get two annual memberships for the price of oneMoney App - Triple Your Paycheck GiveawayShow Notesa16z-backed Tellus wants to offer consumers a much better savings rate. Here’s how. by Mary Ann Azevedo—TechCrunchFactors Affecting Reserve Balances—U.S. Federal ReserveLiabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury: Wednesday Level—FREDWhat if the Federal Reserve books losses because of its quantitative easing? by William B. English and Donald Kohn—BrookingsU.S. Banks Lost a Record $370 Billion in Deposits Last Quarter by David Benoit—The Wall Street JournalCryp

Camden and David converse with Asha Mehta, Managing Partner & CIO at Global Delta Capital about the bullish case for emerging and frontier market stocks as well as the risks.Topics covered include:How to go about investing in emerging marketsShould you invest in ChinaWhere are the most promising emerging and frontier marketsWhy aggregate emerging markets earnings have been lacklusterHow to balance quantitative analysis with subjective reasoningSponsorsMasterClass - Get two annual memberships for the price of oneMasterworks – invest in contemporary artShow NotesPower of Capital by Asha MehtaGlobal Delta CapitalSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How the bankruptcy of FTX, the world's third-largest crypto exchange, undermines trust in cryptocurrency and decentralized finance, making it even more difficult for crypto to ever be taken seriously as a monetary alternative.Topics covered include:How FTX squandered its customers' depositsHow FTX is another example of a private money bank runHow traditional securities lending works and why it is very low risk compared to the highly speculative nature of cryptocurrency lending platformsHow FTX's demise is impacting numerous entities including Voyager, BlockFi, Bitcoin miners, venture capitalists, and many othersHow should individual investors store cryptocurrency, and does it even make sense to continue to own itFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsLinkedIn – Post your job for freeMoney For the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesDon't Miss Out on Crypto: Larry David FTX CommercialThe spectacular implosion of crypto’s biggest star, explained by Emily Stewart—VoxDivisions in Sam Bankman-Fried’s Cr

How the International Monetary Fund, the world's economic firefighter, works for global monetary cooperation and prosperity while using its own made-up currency, the SDR.Topics covered include:What was the Bretton Woods monetary system that led to the formation of the IMF and the World BankHow the World Bank and IMF differWhat does the IMF doHow the IMF creates its own money out of thin airWhy does Argentina, the IMF's largest borrower, keep defaulting on its debt obligation including those to the IMFWhy the IMFs negotiating tactics are controversialFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsAura, the new standard in digital safety PolicygeniusShow NotesCreation of the Bretton Woods System, July 1944—Federal Reserve HistoryThe World BankInternational Monetary FundSterling devalued and the IMF loan—Cabinet Papers, The National ArchiveTotal IMF Credit Outstanding, Movement From November 01, 2022 to November 07, 2022—IMFWhy you can’t technically default on the IMF by Izabella Kaminska—Fina

How to survive in a world where luck and randomness play a pivotal role.Topics covered include:What are power lawsWhat are the narrative fallacy and hindsight biasWhat are examples of domains where randomness has contributed to successWhat are ways to distinguish investing skill from luckHow sixth-century philosopher Boethius had an accurate view of chanceWhat are ways we can benefit from good luck while protecting ourselves from bad luckFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsCopperMoney For the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesRedacted messages to and from Elon Musk—Delaware’s Court of ChanceryElon Musk’s Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius by Charlie Warzel—The AtlanticTalent Versus Luck: The Role of Randomness In Success and Failure by Alessandro Pluchino, Alessio Emanuele Biondo, and Andrea RapisardaSusan AlexandraWelcome to Susan Alexandra’s Dream World by Sophia Herring—Clever, Architectural DigestThe Fashion Set Can’t Get Enough of Susan Alexandra’s Colorful, Kitschy Designs by Noah

How to use laddered inflation-indexed bonds (i.e., TIPS), CDs, fixed annuities, and fixed index annuities to meet retirement living expenses while worrying less about running out of money.Topics covered include:How individuals can use liability-driven investment strategiesWhy now is the best opportunity to buy Treasury Inflation Protection Securities in 15 yearsHow to use bond laddersHow deferred fixed and deferred variable annuities workHow to analyze fixed index annuitiesFor more information on this episode click here.Show NotesWorry-Free Investing by Zvi Bodie and Michael J. ClowesMarket Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed—FREDMarket Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed—FREDNew 5-year TIPS auctions with a real yield of 1.732%, highest in 15 years—TIPSwatchComplete List of Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuities (MYGAs),

In Episode 406, David and Camden visit with Annie Duke about how to better manage our investment portfolios including when and what to sell. We also discuss a number of behavioral finance topics such as mental accounting, sunk costs, and goal myopia.Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Annie’s latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released on October 4, 2022. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller, and is highly influential on the investing philosophy of Money for the Rest of Us. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker, won a World Series of Poker Bracelet and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She retired from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a profe

What is volatility and what causes it to rise and fall? How volatility itself contributes to more volatility such as in the example of the chaotic UK government bond market where long-term yields have increased by 4% in 2022.Topics covered include:How the role of volatility has changed in financial marketsWhat caused UK interest rates to spike and long-term bond investors to lose 50%What is liability-driven investmentWhat drives increases in volatility and volatility spikes and spillovers are more frequentHow to earn income from shorting volatility and what are the risksWhat we can learn when financial securities blow upFor more information on this episode click here.Episode SponsorsMasterworks – invest in contemporary art - **Net est. returns for all realized and unrealized offerings is 15.3%, from inception through 6/30/22.  See important Reg A and performance disclosures at masterworks.io/cdPolicygeniusShow NotesThe volatility virus strikes again by Eric Lonergan—Financial TimesHow ‘Liability-Dri

What has caused the U.S. dollar's currency exchange rate to be the strongest in twenty years? How a strong dollar leads to slower global economic growth and falling asset prices.Topics covered include:Why a strong dollar is a no-win situation for the rest of the worldWhy have inflation and interest rates increasedWhy recession risks are rising as central banks combat inflationWhy asset prices fall when interest rates riseWhat would cause the U.S. dollar to weaken from these levelsHow to protect against currency fluctuationsFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsAura - protect your moneyPolicygeniusShow NotesWall St blames missteps at FedEx as parcel service fails to delivery Steff Chávez and Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson—Financial TimesThe Global Dollar Cycle by Maurice Obstfeld and Haonan Zhou, BPEA Conference Drafts, September 8–9, 2022—Brookings Papers on Economic ActivityMonetary policy challenges posed by global liquidity by Hyun Song Shin—BISDollar beta and stock returns by V

How risk perceptions and actions have changed over several years of the pandemic. How the pandemic's impacts continue to affect politics, the economy, financial markets, how we invest, and our personal lives.Topics covered include:Is the pandemic really over?What percentage of people continue to isolate at homeHow behaviors such as eating out and visiting friends have changed throughout the pandemic.How work has changed with the pandemicHas pandemic stimulus changed beliefs about the sustainability of the national debt leading to structural inflationHow productivity improvements could improve the national debt burdenWhat investment lessons has David learned from the pandemicFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsLinkedIn – Post your job for freeExpress VPN – get three months free on VPN serviceShow NotesBiden’s claim that ‘pandemic is over’ complicates efforts to secure funding by Dan Diamond—The Washington PostCOVID-19 Dashboard—The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Ho

What are the drivers that lead to higher student loan balances? Why a one-time student loan forgiveness program doesn't solve the problem of increasing student debt. What are some more viable longer-term solutions.Topics covered include:How big is the Biden Administration student debt forgiveness planHow big has the student debt burden grownWhy are borrowings for students increasingWhy Baby Boomers spent so much less on collegeHow are student loans accounted for by the U.S. federal governmentWhat is the impact on the deficit and potentially inflation of forgiving billions of dollars of student debtFor more information on this episode click here.Show NotesStudent Debt And The Federal Budget | How Student Loans Impact The U.S. Fiscal Outlook, November 2021—Bipartisan Policy CenterWhat the Student-Loan Debate Overlooks by Ronald Brownstein—The AtlanticSee the Average College Tuition in 2022-2023 by Emma Kerr and Sarah Wood—U.S. News & World ReportBiden’s Student-Debt Plan Could Chip Away