Market Watch with Tom Waitt

December_21st_2011.mp3 Global Market Results    As we approach the end of 2011 annual performance is in focus. It is difficult enough to track our own equity markets day to day but Global markets and events are important in this millisecond decision making World. Global Market Results (Click For Larger Picture) Global events and market fluctuations affect domestic and international markets instantaneously. Global equity markets have mixed returns shifting rapidly day to day minute to minute. At this point in time India's Sensex Index is the weakest in 2011 off 23.52%. The strongest global equity player is the U.S. Dow Jones Index with an advance of 4.54% so far this year. Other U.S. equity markets are off slightly with senior stocks outpacing junior cap and intermediate issues. In Currencies the Canadian Dollar was even weaker than the Euro off 2.87% vs. the Euro down 2.56%. Gold is leading global commodity markets up 12.69% so far this year, while Wheat prices fell sharply off 29.6

December_14th_2011.mp3 King Dollar    The U.S Dollar is the strongest currency in the World as global markets buy dollars leaving other currencies including gold now off $328 from recent highs. U.S. Dollar Index (Click For Larger Picture) The tide has changed the U.S. dollar is up over 10% from lows set this year. With all the commotion in the world the U.S. is the safe harbor as the Euro breaks down falling 13% so far in 2011.Global markets are in disarray, uncertainty and fear rules with global 24 hour a day media reports highlighting the debt crisis in the Eurozone. Strength in the U.S. Dollar adds muscle to the private sector financial markets and drains resources from the public sector, because dollars when they are recycled back to the U.S. for the most part have to be supplied by foreign central banks from the sale of their holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities. This means interest rates will rise in 2012 and U.S. equity markets will benefit with money supply at an all time high

December_7th_2011.mp3 Opportunities Abound    Global economic forecasts are in disarray, 500 point moves on U.S. equity markets have become common place, yet we are up on the year 2011 with the Dow Jones average of 12,112.98 up 535.47 points from last years close of 11,577.51 a 4.6% advance. Eurozone Lack of leadership is a World wide phenomenon from Eurozone nations to the United States with political turmoil expected over the next year while 2012 elections stagnate any coordinated solution. Market pundits and Media moguls mouth dire forecasts of the future. Pessimism is at a peak gloom and doom is prevalent in every media report. Yet stocks are up. As the Beatles concluded "got to admit its getting better a little bit better all the time." There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation cons

November_30th_2011.mp3 Global Shifting Tides    It is difficult enough to track our own finances day to day but Global markets and events are incredibly important in this millisecond decision making World. World GDP (Click For Larger Picture) Global events and market fluctuations affect domestic markets instantaneously. Global markets shift rapidly day to day minute to minute but most dramatically year over year. Over the last 4 years we have seen Japan slip from a top 3 global economic force only to be replaced by China. The once mighty Eurozone which was a contender for the number 1 spot pushing the U.S. economy out has slipped rapidly and China is now threatening to take out the number 2 position. The most interesting shifts expected is the rapid advance of China which is predicted to overtake to U.S. as number 1. India is expected to surpass the Eurozone which may occur more rapidly than originally thought. The fastest advancement is expected to be Brazil from a non event to 5th pl

November_23rd_2011.mp3 Positive GDP Growth    U.S. markets have little to be thankful for going into U.S. Thanksgiving weekend. Global concerns on sovereign debt ratios have ballooned into crisis proportions with the help of international media attention. U.S. GDP Growth Rate (Click For Larger Picture) Greed and fear rule when investing. The 1929 crash caused fears to elevate to panic levels bring on the great depression. Greed grew in the "nifty 50's as stocks rose 400% in a decade. In the early 1980's fear soared as interest rates rose to 23%. Stocks again soared 400% in the 1990's. Greed again enveloped participants as the dot com stocks overtook rational thought processes giving way to fear and panic when common sense returned retracing a third of the last decades gains. Panic set in on the 2008 subprime mortgage meltdown leaving stocks at low levels and investors losing a decade of performance. Current events are reported in a millisecond all over the world from European c

November_16th_2011.mp3 Traction - On a Slippery Slope    Crude oil is above $100 a barrel up 36% in 5 weeks while Global economic forecasts are in disarray. Crude Oil (Click For Larger Picture) Fiddling while Rome burns! European economies are in disarray causing concern globally and dire forecasts of the future. But why would crude oil rise if we are heading into a World wide slowdown? Perhaps we are seeing a paradigm shift that few foresee. After pumping liquidity into international economies do we have a spark that has ignited oil? Gold has toped out at $1923.70 and is down 10% while the European crisis spreads. The S&P 500 index is up 17% from this years low. Pessimism is at a peak gloom and doom is prevalent in every media report. Little is expected from the massive U.S. market with political turmoil expected over the next year while 2012 elections stagnant any coordinated solution. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock sele

November_9th_2011.mp3 Citi Limits    It goes up goes up! It goes down goes down. Time to ground your thoughts with risk/reward tools. Citigroup Inc (Click For Larger Picture) Media and market participants often get caught up in the mood of the moment and excite emotions to a fever pitch. Markets feed on these emotions and take things to incredible levels, both up and down. Media sensationalizes the movement by finding reinforcing reasons for even more unbelievable levels. Infomercials bolster the fever and what goes up goes up goes up. Pessimism also spreads like wildfire as negative news brings more negative news and panic and fear set in. Does it ever end? Newton's law of gravity will come into play "What goes up must come down; for every action there is equal and opposite reaction." One must learn to think outside of the box and step off a trend before it ends. Parabolic moves are a tell tale sign that warns us to be nimble and assess our current positions. Now is the time to carefull

November_2nd_2011.mp3 Shifting Emotions    Emotions have run rampant, with daily media reports of European woes, political infighting and a lack of job creation giving rise to Occupation Wall Street and steadily rising debt concerns. Are there signs of improvement? Market Emotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) Dow Jones Industrial Average (Click For Larger Picture) Markets have always moved on emotions, usually FEAR & GREED, but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt.  The recent 18% advance was impressive in October faltered this week falling 5% only to open strongly today. It appears we are gaining Confidence, with confidence you can reach truly amazing heights; without confidence, even the simplest accomplishments are beyond ones grasp. Stock markets are a leading indicator for the economy and it appears a shift is coming and optimism is slowly building. By the time the media picks up on this shift of attitude it

October_26th_2011.mp3 World Equity Performance - 2011    Global Markets have had a rough year, with major shifts occurring on a daily basis in every investment vehicle from Gold to Government Bonds to Stocks all around the World. World Indexes Performance - 2011 (Click For Larger Picture) Markets around the world are linked together by instantaneous media reports like they have never been before. They started 2011 in lock step moving up 7% in the first 2 months but by March started a correction that took emerging markets down sharply. By May of this year a U.S. equity lead correction set the highs of 2011 only to stumble in June and July and get hammered down in August and September. It appears the lows were in at the end of September and this month of October saw the U.S. equity index come back to flat for the year. The out performance of U.S. Stocks has been impressive given the dire political situation of wrangling among Democrats and Republicans preparing for the Presidential elect

October_19th_2011.mp3 Turning Point: Rates on the Rise    While the media watches Greece burn and U.S. elections over a year away, stocks are bottoming out. 10 Year U.S. Government Note Yield (Click For Larger Picture) Despite Greek riots, "Occupy Wall Street" hurricanes, tornados, and floods, the downgrade of U.S. debt off it's AAA status , along with the political fallout of the messy U.S. debt ceiling debate which adds to recent distraught worries of unemployment, European unity, Mid East unrest and revolution, Oil supply uncertainty, the housing crisis, mortgage foreclosures, bank failures, too big to fail bailouts, Japanese slowdown due to earthquakes and tsunamis and nuclear meltdowns, Chinese accounting, Russian corruption and now ridiculous political wrangling as Democrats and Republicans prepare for Presidential elections in November 2012. See the chart of the U.S. Government 10 year note yield which was as low as 1.696% last month currently 2.176% with money flows mo

October_12th_2011.mp3 Shipping in Confidence    Confidence? It is hard to muster confidence in the economy when the fate of the World is in the hands of the Slovakian parliament. But facts are building for an upward turn in Global Equities despite the disarray reported by the media. Baltic Dry Shipping Index - Ten Year (Click For Larger Picture) Baltic Dry Shipping Index - Six Month (Click For Larger Picture) With 24 hour round the clock media reports highlighting European bailout woes for Greece with 16 of 17 countries voting and only the Slovakian parliament voting no. Along with daily accounts of the diverse polar split in the U.S. political arena, unlikely to let up before the November 2012 Presidential elections. The public is becoming very concerned over the financial situation globally with protesters in the streets. Worries soar that the U.S. economy is in a much worse condition than stated. Many feel credit will be too restrictive to support economic growth. Near panic e

September_28th_2011.mp3 Fact or Fiction?    Fact or Fiction. Is the glass half empty or half full?  I will be back after these messages with a discussion. Durable Goods Orders (Click For Larger Picture) Media and market pundits have been finding every negative story to sensationalize events even if they have to go around the globe to find them. A cascading wall of worry lead by the distraught concerns of European unity, a bankrupt Greece along with unemployment, the housing crisis, mortgage foreclosures, bank failures, too big to fail bailouts U.S. debt off it's AAA status, along with the political fallout from ridiculous political wrangling as Democrats and Republicans prepare for Presidential elections in 2012 along with Chinese accounting practices, Russian corruption and the inevitable economic recession even though we have not had even one quarter of negative growth let alone the two negative quarters needed to have a recession. Durable Good Orders now running at a 12.3% yea

September_21st_2011.mp3 Growth?    Media reports on current popular themes of events and often carries views to extremes overstating the negatives and positives and fails to recognize when a change occurs until well after the fact. Indeed if it's up it's going up and if it's down it's going to fall further. A dangerous assumption when investing. U.S. GDP (Click For Larger Picture) Greed and fear rule when investing and current events are reported in a millisecond all over the world. When investing it is important to realize we have a market of stocks not a stock market. Most mutual funds and exchange traded funds attempt to diversify and aim to match a stock market index rather than dissect the actual growth patterns evident in today's economy. Stock indexes over the last decade have gone nowhere, buy and hold strategies have not worked and most mutual funds have shown negative results as management fees and trailer fees compounded the losses. Media reports have suggested we are alread

September_14th_2011.mp3 Interesting Inflation    Interest rates are low but inflation is rising. Inflation is described as too many dollars chasing too few goods; inversely Deflation is too many goods for too few dollars. Interest Rates and Inflation (Click For Larger Picture) Which environment would you like to be in? If you have the goods people are rushing to buy like oil or gold or I-Pads your O.K. If on the other hand you are flush with real estate in Florida; not so good. Many analysts warn that the current easy money policy by global central banks will devalue currency and push commodities including food stocks to levels unaffordable by many already unemployed. Cotton prices soared to levels not seen since the U.S. Civil War. Gold has hit record highs; Gasoline remains high. Food prices are rising, forcing your grocery bill higher. Is inflation a problem? From 1914 until 2011, the average inflation rate in United States was 3.38 percent reaching an historical high of 23.70

September_7th_2011.mp3 Breaking Parity    Hope you enjoyed a strong Canadian Dollar, we are about to break parity. Canadian Dollar - U.S. Dollar (Click For Larger Picture) In the last 3 ½ years we have seen the Canadian against the U.S. dollar trade as high as 1.1038 and as low as .7656. Recent high of 1.0630 failed to test the 1.1038 record high and established a lower high downtread. A key uptrend has been broken leaving resistance at 1.0554. The chart shows the Canadian Dollar over the last 5 years. Currently 1.0120 a test of last month's low of .9991is in store. Failure to hold would put the Canadian currency under par in the .97 to .99 area. Global markets operate 24/7; the most active is the currency market which affects the price of everyday purchases and investments. To realize the absolute value of currency exchange rates consider this; a $25,000 U.S. car; the post war low on the Canadian dollar was .6179 in 2002 and reached a premium high against the U.S. of 1.1038 in 20

August_31st_2011.mp3 2011 Not 1929    The death of stocks has been greatly exaggerated. S&P/TSX Composite Index (Click For Larger Picture) Despite hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods. The downgrade of U.S. debt off it's AAA status , along with the political fallout of the U.S. debt ceiling which adds to recent distraught worries of unemployment, European unity, a bankrupt Greece. Mid East unrest and revolution, Oil supplies uncertainty, housing crisis, mortgage foreclosures, bank failures, too big to fail bailouts, Japanese earthquakes and tsunamis, nuclear meltdowns, Chinese accounting, Russian corruption and now ridiculous political wrangling as Democrats and Republicans prepare for Presidential elections in 2012. Many investors have been burnt in the recent market decline and many pundits talk of stocks crashing once again. In the 2000 to 2002 decline the Canadian stocks fell 50.2%. In the 2008 to 2009 decline the Toronto Stock Exchange fell 50.4%. So far in the 2011 turmoil

August_24th_2011.mp3 Parabolic Correction    Remember when Oil & Gas prices are the talk of the town, in the elevators, at the dinner table in the markets, the flavor of the month. It reached 147.27 a barrel it is now $85.64 42% lower. Gold recently traded $1,917.90 an ounce it is currently $1781.30 off 7% a 42% decline would be $1,112 not impossible. Crude Oil Light Sweet (Click For Larger Picture) Gold, 100 Troy Oz. COMEX (Click For Larger Picture) Investors often act like lemmings mythically following lock step till they fall off a cliff. The recent euphoria in Oil & Gas pump prices is a rerun of the past few years. In early 2007 a barrel of oil was $49.50 by mid 2008 it reached $147.27 a $97.77 advance, by early 2009 it had fallen to $32.20 a decline of $114.77. This time we reached $114.83 a barrel almost as much as oil fell last time, Crude Oil today is $85.64 In late 2008 Gold traded at $ 681 an ounce this week we reached $1917.90 an ounce a 280% advance in three

August_17th_2011.mp3 Hold 'em, Fold 'em, Sold 'em?    You got to know when to hold `em, know when to fold `em, Know when to walk away and know when to run. Dow Jones Industrial Average (Click For Larger Picture) Buy and hold has not been a successful strategy but beats selling and running like hell when the masses panic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 18% over the last few weeks as investors panicked in a media hyped decline as the World came to an end. This was a time to hold em and buy more as we get set to challenge 2011 highs of 12,876.00 this fall and the all time high of 14,198.10 in 2012. We have retraced 35% of the huge upward move of 2009 to 2011 which doubled equity prices. Support stands at recent low of 10,604.07 which is also near the 200 week moving average. Currently 11,442.30 up 8% from last weeks low, overhead initially at 12,000. Timing is everything! This is a trading environment and requires active management it is paramount to think outside the box and apply

August_10th_2011.mp3 Crisis of Confidence    If you think you can you can; If you think you can't you're right. Global equity markets have lost their mo-jo. Market Emotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) With confidence, you can reach truly amazing heights; without confidence, even the simplest accomplishments are beyond ones grasp. Global markets have lost confidence, the recent downgrade of U.S. debt off it's AAA status was the latest in a series of events to zap the bulls and open the floodgates for the bears. The debt ceiling fiasco of political wrangling as Democrats and Republicans dug in like idiots was an embarrassment to mankind. The political fall out of budget negotiations will last right through the 2012 Presidential elections, which adds to recent distraught worries of serious unemployment. On top of this European unity is being tested, Mid East unrest and revolutions spread, Oil supplies interrupted, housing crisis continues, mortgage foreclosures, bank failures,

August_3rd_2011.mp3 U.S. Dollar Confidence?    Politics robbed equity performance with wrangling over the debt ceiling. Earnings of 75% of stocks was impressive but not to markets in disarray. U.S. Dollar Index (Click For Larger Picture) Global markets are in disarray, uncertainty and fear rules with global 24 hour a day media reports highlighting the diverse polar split in the U.S. political arena. The public is becoming very concerned over the financial situation in the United States. Worries soar that the U.S. economy is in a much worse condition than stated. Many feel credit will be too restrictive to support economic growth. The value of the U.S. dollar is falling and has near panic emotions for some followers and market pundits. What people do not realize that the U.S. dollar currently 74.25 was lower in May at 72.86, and down at 71.05 in 2008. With all the commotion in the world the U.S. is the safe harbor. Money supply is at an all time high while the rate of turnove