Bloomberg Surveillance

PIMCO's Mark Kiesel says the main risk to the U.S. is a pickup in inflation. Prior to that, Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Partners' chairman, says the Fed is content to let inflation run a little hot. Stewart Warther, BNP Paribas' derivatives strategist, says there is less informational advantage in recent years. John Kernan, a consumer research analyst at Cowen & Co., says things are going to get ugly in retail. Finally, Drew Matus, UBS' deputy chief U.S. economist, says he is anticipating an unchanged unemployment rate on jobs day.

Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers join Tom Keene and David Gura on Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss populist policy cycles, the new truculent nationalism, and the future of American leadership.

Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, says trade wars remain the biggest downside risk in the next year or two. Prior to that, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity's chief market strategist, says the post-Donald Trump rally has brought too much optimism to the market. Then, Evan Medeiros, Eurasia's managing director for Asia, says Asian policymakers and business leaders wonder if Trump will be as committed and involved in Asia as President Obama. Finally, Dartmouth's Danny Blanchflower says the U.S. is \u0010nine million jobs away from full employment.

Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group's president and founder, discusses his top risks for 2017 and says traditional alliances are crumbling. Lawrence Summers, former U.S. treasury secretary, says the risks to the global economy are enormous. Then, Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics' co-founder and chairman, says there is a huge amount of uncertainty about economic policy, both in the U.S. and in Europe. Also, Dom Barton, McKinsey & Co.'s global managing partner, says it's technology -- not trade -- that's dislocating jobs. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners' founder, says Donald Trump is making volatility great again. Finally, Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Bank of India, says central banks are in the "process of exit."

Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs joins Tom Keene for a special hour of Bloomberg Surveillance. Their conversation touches on a wide range of topics in economics and finance looking to 2017 including the Trump presidency. Also, a special look back to the challenges she has faced across her storied career.

Luigi Zingales, a professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Businesss, discusses what to expect in Donald Trump's first 100 days. Dennis Ross, a distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute, says a one-state solution in the Middle East will not work. Finally, Don Rissmiller, Strategas's chief economist, says it's hard to accelerate employment gains in the second half of a business cycle.

John Silvia, Wells Fargo Securities' chief economist, says fiscal policy structure should the No. 1 priority for Donald Trump. Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, says the biggest risks to emerging markets next year will be domestic in nature. Finally, John Ryding, a co-founder of RDQ Economics, says we are in a new environment of fiscal stimulus at a time of relatively full employment.

Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman's head of currency strategy, discusses the Fed and how he expects to see the British sterling head weaker. Tony Crescenzi, a PIMCO portfolio manager, says credit markets are fully priced for a good scenario. Finally, John Nixon, a former CIA analyst, says the politicization of intelligence has done more harm to foreign policy than anything in the last decade.

Michael Holland, chairman and founder of Holland & Co., says markets are pricing in stronger growth and discusses why financials are up going into 2017. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research's head of U.S. economics, says the tax code needs an overhaul. Finally, Jonathan Golub, RBC Capital Markets' chief U.S. market strategist, says inflation is coming naturally from the unemployment rate being under 5 percent.

John Lipsky, former IMF first deputy managing director, discusses managing director Christine Lagarde's negligence conviction. Howard Davidowitz, Davidowitz & Associates' chairman, talks to Tom Keene and David Gura about the state of retail during the holiday season. International Rescue Committee's CEO, David Miliband, says refugees are a symptom of political failure. Finally, Deustche Bank's Rocky Fishman says there won't be a single moment that defines what the euro zone looks like a year or two from now.

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, says many politicians are focusing on the positives of Donald Trump's tax policies and not on the negatives of his unknown trade policies. Prior to that, Strategas's Chris Verrone says the market rally after the presidential election is actually not that extraordinary. Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics, says she's cautious about fourth quarter GDP growth. George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, says the first flashpoint that Trump will have to deal with is the Middle East. Finally, Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist, says Trump captured lightning in a bottle with populism.

Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, talks to Tom Keene and David Gura about the shift in the U.S. relationship with China. Prior to that, Bloomberg's Lionel Laurent discusses European banking. Then, Steve Auth, CIO of Federated Investors Equities, says the economy doesn't go anywhere without confidence. Also, Princeton University's Alan Krueger discusses the evolution of terrorism in the 10 years since he published "What Makes A Terrorist?" Finally, Deutsche Bank's Sebastien Galy discusses the future for emerging markets under a Donald Trump presidency.

Bob Hormats, Kissinger Associates' vice-chairman, discusses Donald Trump's foreign policy with China. Prior to that, Tom Keene and David Gura talk to PIMCO's Jim Moore about retirement. Also, John Vail, Nikko Asset Management's chief global strategist, says Japan's economic landscape has been looking good since Trump's election. Finally, Michael Darda, MKM Holdings' chief economist, talks about the velocity of money and growth potential of the U.S. economy.

Joe Quinlan, the chief market strategist for U.S. Trust, gives an outlook for 2017 and discusses rising global obesity. Then, Chris Grisanti, CEO of Grisanti Capital Management, says banks are attractive because as rates rise, they can finally earn money in the lending game. Also, John Allison, former CEO of BB&T, says he thinks Mike Pence can influence Donald Trump into becoming a libertarian. Finally, Bloomberg's Greg Viscusi discusses the news that IMF Chief Christine Lagarde was found guilty of negligence.

John Taylor, an economics professor at Stanford University, says the advantage of a monetary strategy or rule is that you don't have to keep talking about it. Prior to that, Peter Tague, Citigroup's co-head of global M&A, says the Chinese have been more aggressive on deal-making on a cross-border basis, driven by a desire to access technology. Then, BlackRock's Jeffrey Rosenberg says correlations on debt versus equity have displayed less certainty and less reliability than we've come to expect.

Daragh Maher, HSBC's head of FX strategy, says the euro decline will push markets to think about parity. Then, Admiral James Stavridis, dean of Tufts' Fletcher School, says Rex Tillerson meets the standards of Secretary of State quite well. Finally, Deutsche Bank's Alan Ruskin says sterling has not fully priced in Brexit and if there's a meaningful downturn next year, sterling will weaken.

Mike Mayo, a banking analyst at CLSA Americas, says U.S. banks are very strong. Prior to that, Jean-Claude Trichet, former ECB president, discusses the role shadow banking played in the financial crisis. Then, Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank's chief economist, says the Fed has to catch up with the market. Finally, Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners' president and founder, says investors seeing sunny days ahead may be disappointed.

Barry Eichengreen, a professor at UC Berkeley, says faster growth heals a lot of wounds economically and politically. Prior to that, Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs Magazine, says Donald Trump picking Rex Tillerson for Secretary of State suggests a change in relations with Russia. Then, David Herro, Harris Associates' CIO, says BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse and Lloyds are attractively priced. Finally, Charles Plosser, former president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, says productivity is the big concern.

Gary Shilling, president and founder of A. Gary Shilling, and Kroll Bond Rating Agency's Chris Whalen, discuss their outlook for the European banking industry. Then, Oppenheimer's Fadel Gheit discusses oil, the OPEC meeting and Donald Trump's possible pick for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson. Finally, Harm Bandholz, Unicredit's chief U.S. economist, says the Fed will keep the dot forecasts flat.

Ruchir Sharma, Morgan Stanley's chief global strategist, says we're seeing a different deglobalization with Donald Trump than we saw in the 1930s and the trend is accelerating. Prior to that, Shannon O'Neil, Council on Foreign Relations' Latin America senior fellow, says the biggest challenge in Latin America is populism; the undermining of political institutions and checks and balances that make democracy work. Also, Steve Wieting, Citi Private Bank's global chief strategist, says Trump's tax cuts and substantial fiscal stimulus will lead to faster nominal growth.