Bloomberg Surveillance

Olivier Blanchard, the former IMF chief economist, says forecasts for productivity growth are uncertain. Prior to that, Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the right economic nationalist conversations to be having are those that surround corporate tax reform. Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says we've plucked the lowest-hanging fruit when it comes to the growth outlook for the U.S. Finally, Marc Chandler, the head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, says the market's expectation of a March rate hike doesn't change the odds of three rate increases this year.

Marvin Goodfriend, an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University, says that if the Federal Reserve were really committed to price stability, retirees would be in a much better situation today. Brian Wieser, an analyst at Pivotal Research, says Snap has created a successful product but the bigger question is whether Snap can increase revenue. David Kirkpatrick, CEO and founder of Techonomy Media, says Snap isn't like Twitter because it's got a real business. Finally, USB Securities' Julian Emanuel says enthusiasm isn't as high as it was in 1999 or 2000, suggesting valuations may still move higher.

Alan Blinder, former vice-chairman of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve, expects three to four rate hikes this year. Prior to that, Bill Lee, Citigroup's head of North American economics, says sentiment data aren't good predictors of real data or the economy. Jim Millstein, former chief restructuring officer at the U.S. Treasury, says the confirmation process has become uncivil and we have to change it if we want to get qualified candidates into public service. Finally, Mike Mayo, a former CLSA banking analyst, discusses the future of sell-side research and banking regulation.

Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says Democrats are in the wilderness when it comes to responding to President Trump, whose change in tone will yield positive dividends. Prior to that, John Silvia, Wells Fargo's chief economist, says it will be a struggle to get 3- to 4-percent GDP growth on a sustained basis. Admiral James Stavridis, the dean of Tufts University's Fletcher School, says promises are pouring in from NATO but the U.S. hasn't yet seen money from NATO allies. Finally, Steve Rattner, chairman of Willett Advisors, says that replacing Obamacare will result in a smaller health-care system that costs the government less.

Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore ISI, says the U.S. economy will expand by 2.5 percent this year and we'll know the economy is at full employment once wages start to rise. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO's head of public policy, says tax policy is the No. 1 question from clients. Martin Hegarty, the head of BlackRock's inflation-linked bond portfolios, says core inflation is on a path to 2.7 percent at the end of 2018. Finally, Max Baucus, the former U.S. Ambassador to China and former senator from Montana, says we have to work together to make sure the tax code is efficient and that people get adequate healthcare.

David Herro, Harris Associates' deputy chairman and CIO, says valuations aren't overpriced. Prior to that, Jonathan Golub, RBC Capital Markets' chief U.S. market strategist, says inflation expectations are rising and there's no sign of a looming recession. Dr. Steve Corwin, president and CEO of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, discusses the debate over Obamacare and says access to care isn't insurance. Finally, Thomas Wright, the director of the Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institute, says President Trump is looking to see what he can tear up.

Terry McAuliffe, Virginia's Democratic governor, says President Trump has made many mistakes in his first 30 days. Prior to that, Merrill Lynch's Joe Quinlan says politicians have to pay attention to the angry populist movement. Finally, George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, says Trump is playing cleanup on immigration enforcement from Presidents Obama, Bush and Clinton.

Michael Mayo, a banking analyst at CLSA, says banks will close 10,000 branches in the next several years as customers accept mobile banking. Prior to that, Ed Morse, Citigroup's global head of commodities research, says OPEC needs to prolong cuts because of the oil glut. Finally, John Herrmann, a rate strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ, says the market is pricing in too low of a chance that there will be a Fed rate hike in March.

Stephen Roach, a professor at Yale University, says U.S. markets are largely ignoring risks because it's human behavior to believe in the message of growth rather than the reality of political upheaval. Sam Zell, the chairman of Equity Group Investments, says immigration is core to what built the U.S. Also, BNP Paribas' Stewart Warther says U.S. equity markets are getting close to being fully priced. Finally, Vince Reinhart, the chief economist at Standish Mellon, says stronger growth will be coupled with tighter Fed monetary policy than previously thought.

Nicholas Burns, a professor at Harvard University, says many Europeans are concerned that the U.S. is no longer leading the West. Prior to that, Chris Verrone, Strategas Research's head of technical analysis, says there's a lot of bearishness with respect to the pound and the euro. Craig Moffett, founder and senior analyst at MoffettNathanson, says Verizon and AT&T would benefit the most from consolidation. Finally, Dennis Ross, who conducted Arab-Israeli diplomacy for three U.S. presidents, says destroying ISIS is an ideological challenge, not just a military one.

Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair discusses Brexit and the importance of Theresa May's relationship with Donald Trump. Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds' CIO of growth equities, says investors need to brace for more turbulence in the markets. Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at Berkeley, says public support for the euro is declining. Finally, Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, says a new National Security Adviser would be well advised to bring in their own team.

Stanley Fischer, vice-chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, says the Fed seems to be headed towards its expected rate hike path and wage growth has started. Jason Furman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, says we aren't far from full employment. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, says 2018 is the earliest the Fed will address the balance sheet. Finally, Steve Rattner, chairman of Willett Advisors, says Donald Trump isn't even trying to find the most qualified experts.

Bloomberg View's Eli Lake responds to Donald Trump's tweet about his column, "The Political Assassination of Michael Flynn." Prior to that, Bob Nardelli, CEO and chairman of Xlr-8, says despite distractions, Donald Trump and his administration will be "laser-focused" on his commitments and what got him into office. Citi Private Bank's Steve Wieting says corporate earnings will reach records this year. Finally, Daniel Tarullo, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, says the largest banks still need regulatory attention.

Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS, says Saudi Arabia is taking the lead when it comes to compliance with OPEC's oil production cuts. Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs magazine, discusses the resignation of National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and what's next for the National Security Council. Shahab Jalinoos, global head of FX strategy at Credit Suisse, says there's more downside risk for the euro as the French election nears. Robin Niblett, the director of Chatham House, says President Trump sees unpredictability as a way to project strength. Finally, Bob Haber, co-founder of Proficio Capital Partners, says investors need extreme diversification.

John Allison, former president and CEO of the Cato Institute, says the Federal Reserve made mistakes in monetary policy that had severe consequences. Prior to that, Jim McCaughan, CEO of Principal Global Investors, says a weak banking system, particularly in Italy and Germany, will constrain European growth. Bob Sinche, Amherst Pierpont Securities' global strategist, says the pound will weaken to $1.20 later this year. Finally, Peter Feaver, a professor at Duke University, says the rollout of the ban on incoming refugees wasn't thought through and was ineffective.

Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen says the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial to its success and she's concerned by moves in Congress to second-guess the Fed's decisions. Greg Valliere, Horizon Investments' chief global strategist, says Donald Trump may modify the executive order on immigration. Finally, Noah Feldman, a professor at Harvard Law School and Bloomberg View columnist, says judges don't respond well to bullying and don't like people stepping on their toes.

Michael Darda, MKM's chief economist, says he expects three Fed rate hikes this year and three to four percent sustainable real U.S. growth. Prior to that, Micah Zenko, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses U.S. relations with China and Russia. Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, says he prefers buying gold in Euro and Yen instead of U.S. dollars. Finally, Oliver Chen, a research analyst at Cowen & Co., says there is great long-term opportunity in Costco and Wal-Mart.

Jeffrey Sachs, a professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, says the U.S. must invest in the future for all Americans, instead of just the people at the top. Martin Sorrell, CEO of WPP, says the death of television has been exaggerated. Finally, Steve Case, Revolution LLC's chairman and CEO, says diplomacy should be face-to-face, not through 140-character tweets.

Orville Schell, director of U.S. relations at the Asia Society, says the relations between China and the U.S. are out of balance and the U.S. must work with China. Prior to that, Jim Glassman, JPMorgan's head economist for commercial banking, says the labor market isn't up to full potential. Finally, Phil Verleger, president of PKVerleger, says oil may fall if the U.S. doesn't introduce a border tax.

Joseph Nye, a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, says Donald Trump could make life difficult for judges, but isn't in a position to corrupt or undermine the independence of the judiciary. Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, says inflation isn't on the upswing and there isn't room for Fed rate hikes. Finally, Jim Paulsen, the chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, says the bull market in bonds has ended.