Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Len Jordaan, Index and Structured Solutions, Absa CIB Simon and Len delve into understanding risk and how it applies to your Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) selection, both as a basket of different ETFs you put together but also as to which individual ETF you may be buying for a tax-free or discretionary portfolio. Some links we refer to; Managed volatility JSE Direct interview. Managed volatility ETF blog. MAPPS Protect. MAPPS Growth. Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Upcoming events; 05 December ~ Position your portfolio for 2020 Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Simon Shares Third quarter GDP came in at -0.6% making the fourth negative GDP in the last seven quarters (since Jan 2018). Our economy is dying. Important the economy is not the market, but it is still dying. Sygnia will not be charging you 0.34% to exit their Itrix ETFs. But man the communication around this was a horror show that a final tweet seems to suggest it only if you're directly exiting via the ManCo. So moot for us ordinary investors. Tongaat (JSE code: TON) report is out and it another horror show. They're going after previous executives, including the previous CEO and CFO. But are refusing to release the full report. Talking of reports, Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) is being sued by the PIC for their full PWC report. They only released a short version of the +3,000 page report claiming it was confidential. But if shareholders are going to sue, and they are. Then this re

Simon Shares Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) update is same old same old. Local food doing great, fashion okay and Australia still under pressure with the refurbishments due to end March 2020. Brait (JSE code: BAT) announces a large recapitalisation with a cR5.5billion rights issue at a 27% discount to the share price and about 60% new shares. This is also a massive discount to net asset value (NAV) which is now 3800c and a share price at decade lows. Christo Wiese will not take up his rights, rather Ethos Capital (JSE code: EPE) will and they'll become about a c15% shareholder. Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) monster results. Very strong, double digit everything. This was one of the stocks Petri Redelinghuys picked on my Small Cap Portfolio show recently (along with Jubilee Metals (JSE code: JBL)). British American Tobacco (JSE code: BTI) update was good in all areas and margins are growing. They do however warn that e-cigarette sales growth to hit low end of target. Charles Schwab is taking over TD Ameritrade

Upcoming events; 21 November ~ Creating a portfolio at the market highs 05 December ~ Position your portfolio for 2020 Ironman your trading This is an hour long recording of a live event I presented in Cape Town on Tuesday. The PDF is here. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares SAA retrenchments, a test for the bigger Eskom process? Telkom (JSE code; TKG) to buy CellC? R1 would seem a fair price and would benefit both Blue Label (JSE code: BLU) and Telkom. Rumours that MTN (JSE code: MTN) is also in the running to buy CellC, but I can't see the competition commission allowing that. Of note is that Blue Label have not issued a SENS (Telkom has, but not naming CellC). The reason is that with CellC being written down to zero the deal is not material. Aspen (JSE code: APN) sells Asian operations for Euro400million. This should take the groups debt down to just a little over R30billion and will within debt covenants and manageable. Rebosis (JSE code: REB) failed to declare a dividend in the latest results yet as a REIT it is required to do so by law otherwise they have to pay tax n the profits. The protests in Hong Kong continue on and are getting more violent as the authorities dig in their heels. This is hurting the economy in Hong Kong but I don't see the authorities giv

Simon Shares October was a decent month for the Top40, adding almost 3% and now 9.5% year-to-date excluding dividends. Moodys makes us negative but not junk and the ZAR soars. Finance minister, Tito Mboweni, says government 'not considering' the idea of prescribed assets. https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2019-11-05-treasury-not-considering-prescribed-assets-mboweni-says/ The Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) update what was way more interesting for the fact that Christo Wiese got voted off the board, until he used his zero economic but voting shares that he tried to sell to Shoprite for some R3billion. The actual update shows SA doing well and importantly we're seeing some inflation while the rest of Africa continues to struggle and the new Xtra Savings Rewards Programme got 1million sign ups in the first week. Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) results knocked it our of the park with their iron ore business (Demaneng) is paying for itself in double quick time. Famous Brands* (JSE code; FBR) results show things still

Yield focused ETF from CoreShares CoreShares has merged their PTXSPY EF into PTXTEN and now converted it into a new CSPROP. CSPROP is a new property ETF that has yield as 75% of the weighting adding both diversity and yield to the ETF. Simon chats to Chris Rule about the new ETF, why the changes and the details. Find more here. Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Up coming events; 31 October ~ Live Fat Wallet Show recording 7 November ~ Millennials navigating markets and the investment landscape JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.  

Simon Shares Crowd1 ~ I been digging into it. Scam, a multi level marketing gimmick with no actual product apart from getting other friends, family and fools involved. Ascendis Health (JSE code: ASC) trading updates illustrates the risks of relying too much on net asset value (NAV). They are writing down R4.2billion of "goodwill, intangible assets and property, plant and equipment". In other words everything. But the company has a market cap of only R2.2billion and that R4.2billion equates to some 850c per share totally destroying the reported NAV of 1435c. Calgo M3 (JSE code: CGR) and Balwin (JSE code: BWN) results were both under pressure form a stretched consumer with Balwin having less issues and producing the better results and profits. Both are well positioned for when the economy improves with Balwin in the slightly higher LSM market and Calgo with their burial operations. I sold Calgo a way back and would look to be buying one or both, but not just yet. Buying property requires confidence so they wil

Simon Shares A late and short show this week, discussing the chart below showing return so far for 2019 (to close 17 October 2019). Surprisingly, all positive and some real good returns. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.  

Simon Shares #WhatsAppStokvel This is a scam, of course it is. You're only asking because you know it is and you're hoping somebody will give you 'permission' to go ahead anyway. Anything that requires you to recruit others in order for you to profit is always 100% a scam. Long4Life* (JSE code: L4L) upping their stake in Spur (JSE code: SUR) to over 10%. Is it a pure valuation play or does Joffe have something bigger in mind? Brexit, tic toc. Three weeks to go. Clicks (JSE code: CLS) issued an improved and updated trading update that sent the share to new all-time highs. One can argue about valuations here, but not the quality. Clicks is best of breed. 4Sight (JSE code: 4SI) was a stock i warned against since day one. Far too much jargon and hype that have not turned into profits. But go read the resignation letter of Geoffrey Carter from 7 October. Man is he maximum unhappy. I am doing an ALMI trading demonstration webcast on 28 October at 8.15am Book here. Will Trump juice the markets? A few people pointed

Up coming events; 10 October ~ Is it time to buy listed property? 31 October ~ Live Fat Wallet Show recording 10x South African Retirement Reality Report 2019 Simon chats with 10x Investments founder and CEO about their second Retirement Reality Report and a 1million give away into a retirement annuity. You can find the full report here. Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Blue Label (JSE code: BLU) shares flying after writing down CellC to zero. Up some 30%. I guess the market is relived CellC is only going to zero. WeWork gets a new CEO as founder Adam Neumann steps aside. Makes sense, aside from a lot of crazed decisions he's made. Founders are a different type of person from a CEO. The new top end iPhone is on sale for pre-order locally. At almost R33k, yip a full years tax-free. Even if buying on contract, that's an insane amount fo money for a phone that doesn't even make coffee. Peter Moyo again refused entry to work at Old Mutual (JSE code: OMU). This is beyond messy. Banking strike, with way more horror stories than actual facts. Facts are the union is not happy about retrenchments. But the many many messages I have received about cash running out and online banking not working I suspect are bogus. I suspect I am one of the few left who still use cash anyway? JUUL CEO Kevin Burns has just announced he is quitting. Wealthy Maths: Calculating dividends Up c

Simon Shares Local inflation came in at 4.3% in August from previous of 4.0%. This a little higher than expected with food one of the main drivers. Maybe we're finally seeing food inflation that will help the retailers. MPC rate announcement on Thursday, 20 out of 25 economists say no change. If they'e right then I think a November cut is certain. Prosus (JSE code: PRX) remains in the Top40 and Indi25 indices that it went into when spun out of Naspers (JSE code: NPN). I haven't been able to confirm weightings but the big question is does the two of them exceed what Naspers was weighted? For capped indices this gets real messy, say Naspers was capped at 10%, it'll still be 10%, but will now also include Prosus. Flavoured vaping, flavoured cigarettes next? Two states and President Trump are hitting out against flavoured vaping with a ban the likely outcome. I have spoken about this before, the tobacco industry went full tilt into vaping as a new gateway into getting new smokers and it's working. Except now reg

Simon Shares Hello Prosus (JSE code: PRX). Spun out of Nasper (JSE code: NPN) and trading on JSE and Amsterdam Euronext. I expect Prosus to be the better deal as Amsterdam is a larger market for those wanting access to Tencent and the other assets. And the local fun damager saying that Prosus will do well as local fun damagers don't understand tech should hang his head in shame. The issue was simple weighting, one couldn't have Naspers at full weight in a fund, never mind over weight. So they had to decide how under weight they wanted to be and as such a large discount happened. As I record value unlock is some 3% with Prosus at R1,204 and Napsers off R1,100 adding R104 of value. Bottom line for me is that I expect Prosus to be the better asset due to the Amsterdam listing. And the awkward moment was the JSE not reflecting the indices right as they hadn't included Prosus in the indices that Naspers was in. So everything looked real ugly for a while. They fixed it. For next day or two Prosus will live in sam

Simon Shares Local Q2 GDP came in at 3.1%, higher then expected but what struck me was the comment from Stats SA ~ "spurred on by a build-up of inventories and increased household expenditure". Now we have seen Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) and Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) both comment that the second half to end June was stronger than the first, and this statement would suggest it was the second quarter. But who are these people? Or is it maybe base effect? An Eskom briefing on Wednesday seems to show that the utility has been stabilised with issues such as not enough coal largely fixed. But important point is stabilised, not yet improving. A start I suppose. Group5 (JSE code: GRF) is leaving the JSE as it exits business rescue. Shareholders can expect to get zero back. This is the risk of investing, we get the upside, but if it goes wrong we can lose it all. Discovery* (JSE code: DSY) results were pretty much in line with the first half and they continue to spend a lot of the new businesses. Price is, as always, s

Simon Shares An economic proposal out of National Treasury. Good looking document, but as always implementation is what matters. Adrian Gore, CEO of Discovery* writes a great piece for the World Economic Forum "Things are bad and getting worse for South Africa. Or are they?". Full of actual facts rather than emotions that typically cloud the debate. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) shareholders have agreed to the Prosus unbundling and it will be effective at the open on 11 September. I expect Prosus to trade around R950 and it we do see some value unlock, and I expect that we will, this could add some 4% to the Top40. Not on the day but over the week or so of the unbundling. Exxero (JSE code: EXX) results had a special dividend and growing profits. But what strikes me is a PE of 4x? The market is pricing it as if coal as an energy source will be dead within 4 years? Wealthy Maths: How to calculate future value Managed volatility ETFs explained Upcoming events; 05 September ~JSE Power Hour: Benefits of offshore inves

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results a show of many parts. Locally second half much better after the disaster of the first half. Rest of Africa swings into a R265million loss after making R1.6billion in 2016 FY. Dischem (JSE code: DCP) below 2000c. Was always way over valued but still on a PE of over 20x so not yet cheap. AdvTech* (JSE code: ADH) decent trading update. Lots of moving parts, but stripping that all out leaves HEPS +5% - +9% up and on a PE of under 15x much cheaper than Curro (JSE code: COH) and Curro no longer has the tertiary segment which is doing better than schools right now. Trump has delayed the new China tariffs because this could hurt the US consumer in the yearend shopping season. But in the same breath he says China is paying the tariffs? The man is a nut job. Local CPI came in at 4%, below previous of 4.5% and expected at 4.3%. Simply there is no inflation in the system right now and another rate cut from the MPC is surely assured as we move even lower below the 4.5% mid

Brought Index and Structured Solutions, Absa CIB Simon Shares US yield curves have inverted across the range. Shorter term rates are higher then longer-term rates. Now every recession has been proceeded by a yield curve inversion. But not every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession. So maybe it's warning us or maybe it's not. In short, we'll see lots of hysteria and end of world doom sayers out in force, but as always just carry on carrying on. Upcoming events; 15 August ~ JSE Power Hour: ETFs for investing and retirement Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Managed volatility ETFs with Len Jordaan Index and Structured Solutions, Absa CIB Three Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) issued by Absa earlier in the year. NFEHGE NFEMOD NFEDEF Download the managed volatility product brochure Absa Volatility Managed SA Equity Indices. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with,

Simon Shares Trade wars are back, but this time 'only' 10% on US$300billion of goods. No surprises? China is responding by allowing their currency to weaken to decade lows. Fed cuts 0.25%. Trump says that's not enough, but he is priming an excuse. He has an election next year and if the market / economy is weak - he'll blame the Federal reserve. Iron ore futures lost 10% last week and are currently around US$92, I been warning of this and Vale is producing again so the shortage is disappearing. Now sure Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO) has high quality lumpy iron ore which attracts a higher price. But the US$108 / tonne they got in the last results will not be repeated. Delta (JSE code: DLT) and Rebosis (JSE code: REB) talking about a possible merger? In many ways it makes sense, but the issue is debt on the Rebosis CEO is quoted as saying they need to fix their debt levels, not sure that does this. Nedbank (JSE code: NED) results show the quality of our banks. They're growing (yes very modestly at low single