Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Offshore / Netflix results / Weak IBM results / Tesla results this week / US GDP (4th quarter) / Federal Reserve rate statement on Thursday / Procter & Gamble solid results & increasing buy backs by $2billion to $18billion Local / Chris Griffith Kumba ==> Anglo Plat ==> now Goldfields / BAW selling motor division for R947m / MPC no surprise but vote was 3-2, with 2 for a hike. / Redefine to pass on 2020 dividend / Strong Richemont update

Simon Shares Trading updates from Truworths (JSE code: TRU) and Foschini (JSE code: TFG) both saw sales decrease for the period ending both saw sales down. But not down as much as expected and hence the stocks went wild. Truworths was up some 25% in two days. More than anything this is because expectations were dire. That said I'm not convinced, the lockdown was increased post the period end and as mentioned, sales and HEPS are expected to be down. We'll get more retail updates and over the following two weeks, with Pick n Pay the exception - they don't issues sales trading updates. On Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK), they announced that after eight-years CEO Richard Brasher will be stepping down after a solid turn around in the company. Local CPI came in at 3.1% for December leaving 2020 at 3.3%, the lowest since 2004 (1.4%) and 1969 (3.0%). The MPC will announce he repo rate Thursday, no change expected and with growth under pressure (load shedding, new lockdowns and late vaccine) I don't any increases in 2021

Offshore / Biden starts Wednesday, already has $1.9trillion stimulus plan / Japanese market at 3-decade highs / Chinese GDP +2.3% for 2020 / Rhodium above $20k / US won’t ban investing into Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu / JPMorgan results knock it out of the park Local / Brasher exits Pick n Pay / Murray & Roberts OZ contract / Truworths trading update / J&J vaccine details expected this week, good news for Aspen / Load shedding returns / MPC on Thursday

2021 predictions show Every year Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown do a predictions show. Three wild and woolly predictions for the markets followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you’ll find the 2020 predictions show here. Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes The 2021 predictions are (listen for reasoning); Marc Ashton Not more than 10% of SA population (6million) vaccinated during 2021 Gold close 2021 +$2k Ford & GM out preform Tesla Top40 ~ green ZAR ~ stronger Keith McLachlan Resi10 in $ will beat Nasdaq US ten year real yield (less inflation) will be negative Eastern Cape house price inflation will beat Gauteng Top40 ~ green ZAR ~ stronger Simon Brown Russel 2000 beats S&P500 Resi10 beats Fini15 & Indi25 No US or ZA rate increases this year Top40 ~ green ZAR ~ stronger JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an i

Offshore / Tech wild year / Oil goes negative / Gold breaks $2,000 / Brexit / Tesla Local / Sasol / Top40 green for the year & just off all-time highs / Even the Rand recovered most of the losses and trades better than 5 years ago / Budget deficit / Lots of business rescue, but less than I expected

Simon Shares Trellidor* (JSE code: TRL), I've been buying. We've seen DIY stocks doing well and small SA Inc shares surprise to the upside and I think this could be one of them. Interim is end December so an update should arrive mid-February. Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results were really good. This stock was very expensive at listing and above 2400c in 2016 it was crazy. But price came down and earnings increased so now looking fairly priced and very well positioned in the low cost and passive space with even trading contributing around 25% to revenue. I received an email about being charged massive fees for a trade that happened over multiple days. This is not new and is how the JSE charges. Trades on one day, same stock and all buys or sells are bulked together and charged as one trade. But trades in separate days are each charged as a new trade and so the brokerage minimums hit and can hit hard, very hard. The way to avoid is when you get that SMS for first trade to adjust the price to ensure full quantity o

Offshore / US$908billion stimulus plan proposed for the US / US markets at new highs / Salesforce buying Slack for US$27.7billion / Pfizer vaccine starts being administered this week in the UK / Oil moving higher / Gold bounces need to get above US$1,860 Local / Sasol update, likely rights issue will be smaller / Locusts in NC, WC & FS and returning rains / Barloworld results (and price surge) / Vukile benefiting from non-metro malls / Top40 closes Friday at third-highest level ever / Comair returns to the skies but not the market

Simon Shares Really strong November for stocks. France and Italy had their best months ever, S&P500 +11% and JSE +10%. The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine has been approved for use in the UK starting next week. Limited supplies so front line workers and old people first. But this is good news and suggests that the news for 2021 will be more about rolling out of the vaccine albeit probably also lots of second and third waves. But there is a light at the end of the tunnel and it's not a train. Upcoming events; 03 December ~ JSE Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2021 Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Bytes UK (JSE code: BYI) JSE listing is confirmed for next Thursday. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) very strong results for the year ending August 2020. Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) issue a strong trading update, HEPS expected 62%-67% stronger, results due on Tuesday. ASISA report record inflows into CIS in SA in Q3 while Q2 saw R88billion added as markets were collapsing. Peeps are s

Offshore / U.K. economy is forecast to contract by 11.3% this year, "the largest fall in output for 300 years," Chancellor Rishi Sunak tells MPs / Musk now the worlds second richest person / Janet Yellen tipped for Biden cabinet as Treasury Secretary / China imposing tariffs on Australia, especially their wine. / Down Jones trades above 30,000 for the first time. / Black Friday 2020 online shopping surges 22% to record $9 billion, Adobe says Local / Huge $5billion share buy-back from Prosus and Naspers / Firstrand update "the earnings trend for the four months from 1 July 2020 to 31 October 2020 is reflecting a better than anticipated rebound." / EOH CEO, Steven van Collier testifies at the Zondo Commission / Lewis results and dividend results on a dividend yield of +11% / Acquisition and baby range expand Mr Price’s markets / Gold under serious pressure

Simon Says Another week another vaccine. U.K. economy is forecast to contract by 11.3% this year, "the largest fall in output for 300 years," Chancellor Rishi Sunak tells MPs. US Jobless Claims +30K To 778K In Nov-21 Week, secondly weekly rise. Continuing Claims -299K to 6,071,000 for Nov-14 week. Dow Jones trades above 30,000 for the first time on Tuesday & S&P500 closed at a new all-time high. Dow 20,000 was 25 January 2017 and 10,000 29 March 1999 (12,000 was September 2007). Lewis (JSE code: LEW) results with a 133c interim dividend. Double that for the full year makes for a yield fo some 11.9%. Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) offering their dividend as cash or new shares issued at 1240c. People asking what I'm doing? Taking the shares. Adcorp (JSE code: ADR), stock was 130c on 15 October ahead of their trading udate. Results in Wednesday saw it trading at 600c [caption id="attachment_24206" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Adcorp Daily[/caption] * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 03 Decem

Offshore / Another Monday another vaccine ~ Moderna / 12 million Americans are on track to lose unemployment benefits in December if Congress doesn't extend key programs that were part of the CARES Act passed in March. / JPMorgan forecasts negative GDP in the first quarter, the first Wall St. bank to begin forecasting a negative reading. JPM expects the economy to bounce back in / Amazon moving into the pharmacy business / Boeing 737 Max is back / Bitcoin heading for new highs & FSCA proposes making cryptocurrencies an asset class. Local / Moody’s & Fitch downgrade SA further into junk. / Somebody wants City Lodge East Africa hotels / Results; Stor-Age*, Astral Spar

Simon Shares Another week, another vaccine. This time from Moderna and also using the Messenger RNA as does the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine. Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) results very solid. Wilson Bayly Holmes (JSE code: WBO) results not great as Australia hurts, again. Raubex (JSE code: RBX) announces an R2.87billion contract win from Sanral. Strong Spar (JSE code: SPP) results. Boeing 737 MAX 8 returns to skies as FAA lifts grounding order. Brait (JSE code: BAT) net asset value 771c (based on 9x EV/EBITDA), share price 388c.   [caption id="attachment_24160" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Brait monthly chart[/caption] * I hold ungeared positions. ETF: Low fees double your investment* Upcoming events; 05 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Searching for income 19 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Twenty years of ETFs Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Owning unlisted shares In the last few years, we've seen a bunch of stocks being delisted from the JSE and in pretty much all cases existing sha

Offshore / Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine news / U.K. economy expands by 15.5% in the third quarter, the most on record yet adds another Sterling150billion in stimulus / Disney reports first loss in 40 years, but Disney+ hits 73m subs / Emirates eyes return to profitability in 2022 only / Deutsche Bank proposes a 5% tax for people still working from home after the pandemic / DoorDash files IPO plans, NYSE listing Local / Lockdown level 1 lite? / Growth Point raises R4.3billion / SA’s unemployment rate 30.8% in Q3 / Sun International update gives great insight into leisure locally. / Telkom results / MultiChoice results

Simon Shares US elections, everybody nows who won except the orange one and the GOP. Vaccine news from Pfizer and BioNTech has changed market behaviour. Banks and consumer stocks now the rage while tech and gold is falling. Locally banks are flying. Fini15 daily chart Interesting to see the JSE All Share up circa 14.4% over the last 6. months yet its biggest constituent Naspers only up 3.71% over the same period. A lot of underlying and broad strength. @SimonPB @CAPITALSIGMAza @smalltalkdaily — Mark Tobin (@mtobinwex) November 11, 2020   Searching for income Upcoming events; 05 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Searching for income 19 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Twenty years of ETFs Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Bombastic billionaires* Somebody strikes it big in one field, and now they think they're the smartest person in any field. A CEO of a successful company leaves to start a new company, they just assume it'll work and investors believe them. We see this all the time.

Offshore / US elections over / US unemployment rate 6.9% / Ant IPO cancelled / BoE no change & QE increased by £150 billion to £895 billion / Berkshire Hathaway bought back a record $9 billion in stock in the third quarter Local / Rand strength / Results; Dis-Chem, Richemont & Foschini / Aspen vaccine JV with J&J

Simon Shares US Election results pretty much playing as expected. Trump doing well in early counting but some important states still to come but he has declared victory and is heading for the courts. Upcoming events; 05 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Searching for income 19 November ~ Twenty years of ETFs Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Finding infrastructure stocks Globally one of the key responses to the pandemic is and will be, infrastructure spend. Who are the potential winners? PPC (JSE code: PPC) Sephaku (JSE code: SEP) Reunert (JSE code: RLO) Consolidated Infrastructure Group (JSE code: CIL) WBHO (JSE code: WBO) Murray and Roberts (JSE code: MUR) Aveng (JSE code: AEG) Raubex (JSE code: RBX) Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) Brikor (JSE code: BIK) Stefanuti Stocks (JSE code: SSK) Kumba (JSE code: KIO) ArcelorMittal SA (JSE code: ACL) JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has

Simon Shares Distell Group (JSE code: DHG) issued a solid update albeit short on numbers with one exception. They reduced net debt by some R1.7billion which is a massive number. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) is heading into Nigeria and the market is worried as Nigeria is littered with the bodies of corporate South Africa. But they are doing so in smaller regional malls and not going big, so if it fails it won't be costly. The Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK) update fits in with news out of a press conference of last week. 90%-95% of loans that took payment holidays are back and paying. A sold number, but it does show lenders are not yet out of the woods. Absa changing their distribution policy for the NFGOVI (tracking the top 10 bonds issued by the South African Government). Instead of reinvesting they will now payout distributions. Very strong update from Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) with Q1 revenue up 22% and stock is up some 9% in the news. Upcoming events; 05 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Searching for income S

Simon Shares PPC (JSE code: PPC) results. The $150million debt in the DRC is the problem. If they solve that they'll do a rights issue. If not they're bankrupt. The president's speech on Thursday should give them some hope as he likely promises lots of energy and infrastructure spending. Balwin (JSE code: BWN) results. Not bad considering, they paid a dividend and I like them at current prices. Coronation* (JSE code: CML) issued a good trading update. With Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) they are my two preferred financial stocks for the post-pandemic bounce (actually making money during the pandemic. Keillen Ndlovu on local and offshore listed property. * I hold ungeared positions. Subscribe to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Bankrupt There are a number of listed stocks in business rescue and I am getting asked all the time about when they start trading again. Intu Comair Basil Read Phumelela Others I forget about Short answer, they won't start trading again and you'll g

Offshore / The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, for the 2020 fiscal year, the U.S. deficit will be $3.13 trillion (15.2% of GDP). This number would cause the total U.S. national debt to come in at 102% of GDP in 2020, the first time since 1946 that the U.S. debt has been larger than its economy. / A new stimulus package on or off the table? / The U.K. economy grew by 2.1% in August, less than half the pace anticipated / JPMorgan says U.S. Capital Gains Tax hike (proposed by Biden) may briefly hit stocks / Robinhood says some customer accounts may have become the target of hackers / New iPhones expected on Tuesday, with 5G Local / President Cyril Ramaphosa will address both houses of parliament on Thursday to unveil the long-awaited economic recovery plan for the country. / PPC results / Canal+ buys 6.5% in Multichoice / Spur update, strong recovery but early days. / FNB lists 20 ETNs over US-listed stocks. / Balwin results and the scuffle around Mooikloof

Simon Shares How to fix the JSE, some great ideas by Keith McLachlan. SARB buys R39.4billion of local government bonds in the secondary market in September. French Canal+ takes 6.5% stake in Multichoice (JSE code: MCG). Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) says their loyalty program is a huge part of them gaining R4billion in market share? Launched a year ago it has over 5million members. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) date saw "core retail sales - including food, groceries and general merchandise, but excluding liquor, clothing and tobacco - grew 8.7% year-on-year (6.4% like-for-like)." Sasol (JSE code: SOL) sells some LCCP for US$2billion, reduces debt burden to $8billion. Zeder (JSE code: ZED) keeps dividend and says conditions are improving. But no news on the new strategy. AdaptIT (JSE code: ADI) results after I recorded last Wednesday. The stock was at 120c and HEPS expected at +65c. The stock now 250c. The market gets it wrong sometimes, especially in the small-cap space. Fed chair Powell commenting Wednesday evenin