Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Gold Pullback in Focus Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321. Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts. Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000. Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025 Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat. IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%. South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury’s 1.9% target. Rare Earths: Not So Rare, Still Strategic China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing. Simon looks at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) as a thematic play. Pros & cons of investing in rare earths — not fully sold on the ETF himself. Flashback: 5 Years Since Negative Oil Remember April 2020? Oil went negative (-$40.32)! Breakdown of why it happened (physical settlement, lack of storage). One of the wildest moments in ma

Simon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.

  S&P 500 Bounce? After a rough start, Monday’s trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility. Budget Vote Approaches: The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high. Commodities on a Quiet Rally: Gold (+19.5%), Copper (+26.5%), and Rhodium (+24.5%) lead the way, while oil and aluminium lag. The CRB Index is up 5.4% year-to-date. Atlanta Fed GDP Now Update: Q1 GDP estimate revised to -0.5% from -2.8%. Adjustments for gold trade data make the outlook slightly less dire. Amazon at a Discount? Stock down 20% from its highs, with a historically low P/E ratio of 34. Analysts see upside potential. Amazon | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025 Johnson & Johnson’s Dividend Appeal: Trading near $165, with a potential drop to $150 making its 3% yield even more attractive. Johnson & Johnson | Weekly Chat | 31 March

Education Stocks: Winners and Losers Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status. ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into East Africa showing promise. Curro: Disappointing results with flat learner numbers and write-downs on buildings. Struggles may be due to internal issues or broader economic pressures on lower-income consumers. Commodity Movers: Copper & Rhodium Copper: Near all-time highs due to demand from EVs, data centers, and energy transition. Companies like BHP*, Anglo, and Rio ramping up production. Simon is playing the copper trade through BHP Group. Copper | Weekly | 25 March 2025 Rhodium: Seeing a price recovery after a prolonged downturn. Benefiting PGM miners, though still far from peak levels. Platinum & P

  Market Overview: Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff. Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025 Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties. Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025 Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80. Key Market Insights: Gold as a Portfolio Hedge: Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio. Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York. Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850. Dollar Index Trends: Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101. Could drive the Rand towards 17.80. Global Uncertainty & Market Reactions: European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns. Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions. Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs. Investment Strategies: AI Participation Note by Standard Bank: Tracks the S&

  The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Forecast The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025. Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns. Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January. Market Reactions and Sell-Offs Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022. Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines. Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility. Europe as a Potential Investment Opportunity Europe’s economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package. ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYGEU) vs. MSCI Europe Industrial Sector. Potential for growth in industrial and defense sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 | Weekly | 12 March 2025 Just One Lap Turns 14 Founded in 2011 to provide online financial education. Reflection on the platform’s growth and community support. South African Budget Review Possible VAT increase; lack of innovative fiscal st

Anglo-American’s Cash Raid on Anglo-Platinum Anglo-American’s decision to unbundle its stake in Anglo-Platinum raises concerns. Declaring a special dividend of R59 per share wipes out the company’s entire R17.6 billion cash reserves. Implications for investors: selling pressure expected as shares land in new brokerage accounts. China’s Tech Revival? The appearance of Jack Ma and Xi Jinping together could mark a softening stance toward tech companies. Alibaba partners with Apple, integrating its AI into Apple’s ecosystem. Is China reopening the door for its tech giants? Bull Market Momentum Global indices continue to hit all-time highs, with AI and tech stocks leading the charge. Not just tech: European and Asian markets show strength. Are valuations stretched, or is there more room to run? Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order    

Market Updates & Analysis: Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol’s technical setup and the significance of a ‘kangaroo tail’ pattern. Rand Stability Amid Trump’s Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady. Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence. South Africa’s Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST) Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook Stock & Sector Insights: Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos. Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector risks remain. Shoprite*: Consumer stock pullback; long-term bullish outlook despite short-term pressure. China Stocks & ETFs: Alibaba up 40% on Apple collaboration Satrix China ETF – is it time to reconsider investing in China? General sentiment split between ‘China is uninvestable’ vs.

  Trump Trade Tariffs & Global Market Impact: Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised. U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage. Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities. Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs. Market volatility expected; long-term investment strategies recommended. Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty: Volatility is high—avoid panic selling. Keep cash reserves for opportunities (buy the dip cautiously). Long-term focus: presidential terms are temporary, investments span decades. Interest Rate Decisions & Market Reactions: Bank of England expected to cut rates. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pauses rate hikes due to inflation concerns. South Africa’s MPC cuts rates, prime now at 11%. Analysts predict one to two more rate cuts in 2024. Gold Market Strength & Outlook: Gold price hovering near $2,900, with

The Cristal Challenge runs until October, with participants picking five local stocks (no ETFs or sub-20c stocks) to hold through the year. Simon’s picks include a mix of stable “banker” stocks and speculative plays: Richemont*: High-end luxury giant with strong fundamentals and global market appeal despite challenges in China. Trading near R3,500, with long-term potential boosted by luxury market recovery and stable global demand. Shoprite*: Dominant grocery retailer in South Africa, benefiting from market share growth and diversified business lines like 60/60 delivery. A steady performer with consistent earnings growth and market dominance, trading at a PE of 24. ADvTech*: Education sector leader, well-positioned to meet growing private schooling and tertiary education demands. Education giant trading below its historical PE average, supported by asset-light growth strategies. Calgro M3*: Affordable housing developer, thriving on demand for low-to-mid-income housing in South Africa. Value pick with

TSMC’s Record-Breaking Results Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) hit $26 billion in quarterly revenue. A strong contender in the AI supply chain with growing global operations. Gold: Continuing the Bull Run Gold remains a strong investment pick for Simon, with a potential to hit $3,000/oz. Gold | Weekly | 21 January 2025 Brent Crude Oil Concerns Rising oil prices could hurt both the global and South African economies. Trump Meme Coins & Meme Coin Mania Trump and Melania meme coins: Novelty or nonsense? Simon unpacks the hype. Grinrod & Mozambique Challenges Operational risks in Mozambique but potential opportunities with Transnet’s private rail plans. Sasol: A Case of Caution Chemical spin-offs and high oil prices spark discussion, but Simon isn’t convinced to buy. Cristal  Challenge Simon’s picks for the Cristal  Crystal Challenge: Shoprite*, Purple Group*, ADvtTch*, Calgro M3*, and Richemont*. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

For the twelfth year in a row Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon Brown get together and make three predictions each for year ahead. They then also give their expectations for the local Top40 index and the Rand against the US$. But first every year they start by scoring their previous year predictions to keep things real and honest.

In the final show of the year Simon looks back at the many local and offshore winners (and a few losers) of 2024. There have been some excellent returns, but will they carry on into 2025?

  Boxer IPO Hits the Market Boxer* (JSE code will be BOX) lists on 28 November, debuting at R54/share after a highly oversubscribed IPO. Strategies discussed for trading or investing in Boxer shares, including buying through Pick n Pay shares. Key takeaway: Patience is key; wait for potential pullbacks. Two-Pot Retirement Savings and Market Impact Early evidence of consumer spending from the two-pot retirement system. Stocks like Mr. Price*, Pepkor, and Keith McLachlan’s picks (e.g., Afrimat, Netcare) reviewed as beneficiaries. Satrix 40 ETF Turns 24 Launched in 2000, the Satrix 40 has delivered an annualized return of 11.3%. Impact: Introduced passive investing and slashed fees for South African investors. Bitcoin's Psychological Barrier at $100,000 Bitcoin fell short of the $100K milestone, retracing to around $93K. Analysis of big psychological levels in markets and what this means for Bitcoin's momentum. Bitcoin | Weekly | 27 November 2024 Anglo-Platinum Share Sale Anglo-American reduces its